Evening Wrap: ASX 200 ends record week above 8,200 for the first time as gold and consumer stocks shine

Every day this week the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 closed at a new record high.

Say that out loud. It's pretty impressive. Today, we also logged our first close above 8,200. Remember all the way back when in ChartWatch we'd ponder the ASX 200 achieving an "8-handle"? Well it's very much a reality now.

Despite this week's heroics, it was a quiet session as investors mainly took stock of what has been achieved, both in terms of price gains, but also with respect to dispensing with two major risk events in the form of the US FOMC meeting (50bp cut - check!), and today's Bank of Japan meeting (no change - check!).

Keep scrolling/click through for the usual reporting of today's major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all of the key upcoming economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Also, I have detailed technical analysis on High Grade Copper Futures and Uranium Futures in today's ChartWatch.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 17.6 points higher at 8,209.5, 0.45% from its session high and just 0.26% from its low. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO), advancers beat decliners by a narrow 144 to 127.

For the week, the XJO finished up 109.6 points or 1.35% higher, 1.35% from its intraweek low and just 0.45% from its intraweek high.

There weren’t any major themes today, it was really just shuffling of the deck chairs among the better performing sectors with the exception of Real Estate Investment Trusts (XPJ) (-0.64%) – the worst performing sector today on a modest rise in local market yields (or just some Friday profit taking after a very strong week).

Consumer Discretionary (XDJ) (+1.2%) topped the pops, there were several strong performances here, led by two of my most featured ChartWatch Downtrends Lists stalwarts (yes – much to my surprise!) in Tabcorp (ASX: TAH) (+5.8%) and Domino's Pizza Enterprises (ASX: DMP) (+4.0%). I get the old saying that every dog has its day, but is it just a case of today was that day – or is there something more interesting going on in each? I will leave the analysis of their charts as your weekend homework!

Gold (XGD) (+0.74%) was also pretty good – gold (and silver) prices edged up again last night/in Asian trade today). Information Technology (XIJ) (+0.56%), Utilities (XUJ) (+0.41%), and Financials (XFJ) (+0.36%) also logged better than benchmark performances.

Today’s strongest major ASX stocks - Consumer Discretionary, Gold, IT, Utilities, and Financials

The rest were neither here nor there, but it was clear that defensives like Consumer Staples (XSJ) (-0.29%) and Health Care (XHJ) (-0.13%) missed out again.

Today’s weakest major ASX stocks - Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Property

ChartWatch

High Grade Copper Futures (Front month, back-adjusted) COMEX

What's up Doc!? 🤔

The last time we covered High Grade Copper was in ChartWatch in the Evening Wrap on 17 September.

In that update, we noted the improving technical picture for copper, particularly rising points of demand in 4.042 > 3.989 and 4.322 > 4.929.

We also noted that an emphatic close above the long term trend ribbon, followed by a subsequent test and hold of it (i.e., should the long term trend ribbon transition to providing dynamic demand), could signal the beginning of a new long term uptrend.

Since then, the copper price has closed solidly above the long term trend ribbon (not sure I’d go so far to call it “emphatic” just yet!), and as of today’s live candle, that long term trend ribbon has changed back to green.

It’s bubbling along…trying to change that trend…and I sense we’re one really strong demand-side candle away from really confirming the demand-side is back in control of the copper price. That could come in today’s candle, and if we get a close above 4.391, it’s a bonus.

Demand now sits at the long term uptrend ribbon around 4.25-4.30. There’s also a couple of shadow lows from the 18 and 19 September candles kicking in around 4.24, and the short term trend ribbon is lurking around there also.

I’m going to say that as long as the copper price continues to close above that zone of demand (i.e., 4.24-4.30), the short term uptrend is intact.

As for supply, after a close above 4.391, there is likely very little holding this one back until 4.762-4.768.

(FYI, I posted the Weekly chart earlier today…worth checking out…rising points of demand off the long term uptrend ribbon…🤔).

Uranium Futures (Front month, back-adjusted) COMEX

Gradual, but a decline nonetheless...

The last time we covered Uranium was in ChartWatch in the Evening Wrap on 27 August.

In that update, we noted that recent seemingly bullish news, such as various supply disruptions, had not had any meaningful or lasting impact on the uranium price. This is in my experience, one of the most damning phenomena in markets. When the price of something can’t go up on good news – what does it say about the intent and motivation of the demand side. Even if there was some buying, it similarly speaks volumes about the motivation of the supply side!

My conclusion in that update, now one week shy of a whole month ago, was to reiterate my previous stance of “There is nothing in the current technicals to indicate any demand-side control, and therefore one is best off assuming the status quo to remain”.

Take a close look at the chart above. You know what I like to see in a strong and sustainable uptrend (demand-side candles, rising peaks and rising troughs, rising trend ribbons, trend ribbons providing dynamic demand). So, guess what I am going to say today…

“There is nothing in the current technicals to indicate any demand-side control, and therefore one is best off assuming the status quo to remain”.

(Oh yes, I understand many will be able to spend a couple of hours with me ensuring me the bullish narrative for uranium remains intact. Please, tell me all about it (as puts in AirPods and begins to play Tetris on phone!)

Before the usual U-bull vitriol comes flooding in…don’t worry, I will be the biggest uranium bull too as soon as the trends change! (As many of you know I was on the way up!).

Economy

Today

• CHN Peoples Bank of China (PBOC) 1 & 5-year Loan Prime Rate

  • No change at 3.35% and 3.85% as forecast (but a little disappointing still no further action here...)

• Bank of Japan (BOJ) Policy Rate

  • No change at 0.25% as forecast (i.e., no imminent carry trade unwind that rocked market at the end of July!)

Later this week

• Nil, have a fantastic weekend!

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +12.2% Clarity Pharmaceuticals (CU6) - Appointment of Executive Director to Clarity's Board and Becoming a substantial holder, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends (and that's why it is one of the most Featured stocks in ChartWatch Scans Uptrends) 🔎📈

• +10.1% Omni Bridgeway (OBL) - No news, massive volume…🤔

• +8.3% Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing long term uptrend 🔎📈

• +7.9% Nuix (NXL) - Now news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends (and that's why it is one of the most Featured stocks in ChartWatch Scans Uptrends) 🔎📈

• +6.3% Develop Global (DVP) - Develop awards contract to GR Engineering Services

• +6.2% Mesoblast (MSB) - No news, bouncing off long term uptrend ribbon 🔎📈

• +6.0% Vulcan Steel (VSL) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend, long term trend is transitioning from down to up 🔎📈

• +5.8% Silex Systems (SLX) - No news, decent volume - bucked the trend in the rest of the ASX U-sector…🤔

• +5.8% Tabcorp (TAH) - No news since Tabcorp Board Renewal

• +5.7% Spartan Resources (SPR) - Change in substantial holding (increase), rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends (and that's why it is one of the most Featured stocks in ChartWatch Scans Uptrends) 🔎📈

• +5.6% DUG Technology (DUG) - No news.

• +5.2% Life360 (360) - No news, but check out this Life360 set to join Russell 2000 and 3000 Indexes from 18 Sep, 360 will be added to Russell 2000 and Russell 3000 indices on Monday…so today/tonight is the last trading day to account, rise is consistent with prevailing long term uptrend 🔎📈

• +5.1% Objective Corporation (OCL) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends (also recently featured stocks in ChartWatch Scans Uptrends) 🔎📈

• +4.9% Charter Hall Social Infrastructure REIT (CQE) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend, long term trend is transitioning from down to up (also recently featured stocks in ChartWatch Scans Uptrends) 🔎📈

• +4.9% Firefly Metals (FFM) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends (also recently featured stocks in ChartWatch Scans Uptrends) 🔎📈

Trading lower

• -8.0% EBR Systems (EBR) - EBR Placement and Institutional Entitlement Offer Completed

• -8.0% Lotus Resources (LOT) - Response to ASX Aware Query, gave up all of yesterday's gains, also uranium price modestly lower overnight, but really, most ASX U-stocks down today

• -7.7% Imugene (IMU) - No news since 18 Sep Imugene Receives Orphan Drug Designation for VAXINIA, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends 🔎📉

• -7.1% Sayona Mining (SYA) - No news since yesterday's Amendment to Investor Presentation September 2024, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends 🔎📉

• -6.5% Grange Resources (GRR) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends (and that's why it is one of the most Featured stocks in ChartWatch Scans Downtrends) 🔎📉

• -5.8% Chalice Mining (CHN) - Becoming a substantial holder, fall is consistent with long term downtrend ribbon dynamic supply / long term downtrend 🔎📉

• -5.7% Renascor Resources (RNU) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends (and that's why it is one of the most Featured stocks in ChartWatch Scans Downtrends) 🔎📉

• -5.4% Ioneer (INR) - Rhyolite Ridge Project clears major permitting step and Ioneer webinar on Final EIS

• -4.7% Paladin Energy (PDN) - Ditto weaker ASX uranium sector today

• -4.5% Deep Yellow (DYL) - Ditto weaker ASX uranium sector today

• -4.5% EML Payments (EML) - No news since No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends 🔎📉

Broker Notes

• ALS (ALQ)

  • Retained at buy at Carter Bar Securities; Price Target: $14.52 from $15.05

  • Retained at overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $14.20 from $14.90

  • Retained at buy at Jefferies; Price Target: $16.90 from $17.40

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $15.00 from $16.15

  • Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $14.90 from $15.10

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $16.30 from $17.00

• Bowen Coking Coal (BCB)

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.05 from $0.24

• Coles Group (COL)

  • Initiated at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $21.55

• Computershare (CPU)

  • Downgraded to neutral from overweight at JP Morgan; Price Target: $27.00 from $29.00

  • Downgraded to equal-weight from overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $27.70 from $30.00

• Firefly Metals (FFM)

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $1.50 from $1.00

• Hansen Technologies (HSN)

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $7.20

• James Hardie Industries (JHX)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $50.90

• Arcadium Lithium (LTM)

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $5.70

• Monadelphous Group (MND)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $16.20

• National Australia Bank (NAB)

  • Retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: $35.00 from $33.00

• Orica (ORI)

  • Retained at buy at Jefferies; Price Target: $20.80

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $19.76 from $20.05

  • Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $22.00

• Premier Investments (PMV)

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $33.00

• Qoria (QOR)

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.52

• Ramsay Health Care (RHC)

  • Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $42.40

• Sims (SGM)

  • Downgraded to neutral from overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $12.50 from $12.00

  • Retained at neutral at JP Morgan; Price Target: $13.00 from $12.00

  • Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $14.50 from $13.00

  • Downgraded to neutral from buy at UBS; Price Target: $13.50

• Stanmore Resources (SMR)

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $5.00 from $4.80

• Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC)

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $33.00 from $30.00

• Webjet (WEB)

  • Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $8.15

Scans