Evening Wrap: ASX 200 drops as miners and property stocks sag into financial year-end, flows favour banks

The ASX 200 fell on the final trading day of the financial year as institutional funds rebalanced portfolios, with a late-session sell-off in gold and real estate stocks coinciding with a rotation into the major banks. The benchmark closed FY26 up 6.1% — its weakest financial year performance since FY22.

Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap. Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P/ASX 200 in today's ChartWatch.

Let’s dive in!

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 44.7 points lower at 8,778.7, 0.66% from its session high and smack–bang on its session low. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) advancers lagged decliners by a rather pathetic 116 to 164.

S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold Sub-Index intraday chart

The Gold Sub-Index (XGD) (-4.6%) was the session's standout casualty, hammered by a large, late-session sell order in the final hour of trade that the broader market struggled to explain on fundamentals alone — COMEX gold futures were essentially flat, up just 0.1% to US$4,043/oz, and COMEX silver futures actually gained 1.3% to US$59.39/oz.

The most plausible explanation is portfolio housekeeping: large funds appear to have used the final moments of the financial year to crystallise gains or rebalance sector weightings, with little regard for near-term commodity fundamentals. Perseus Mining (PRU) (-7.0%), Regis Resources (RRL) (-6.9%), Northern Star Resources (NST) (-5.8%), Pantoro Gold (PNR) (-5.3%), and Evolution Mining (EVN) (-5.2%) were all sharply lower.

S&P/ASX 200 Real Estate Sector Index intraday chart

Real Estate (XPJ) (-2.3%) was caught in the same late-session sell-off, with the timing and magnitude of the move strongly suggesting it was part of the same large EOFY rebalancing trade that hit gold. Goodman Group (GMG) (-3.0%), Mirvac (MGR) (-2.6%), Dexus (DXS) (-2.2%), and Stockland (SGP) (-2.2%) all fell.

S&P/ASX 200 Financials Sector Index intraday chart

Financials (XFJ) (+0.4%) appeared to be the direct beneficiary EOFY trade — for as we know... If you are uncertain about where to stick excess cash in the ASX, you can always count on the relative safety and liquidity of the major banks. Zip Co (ZIP) (+3.5%), Washington H. Soul Pattinson (SOL) (+1.1%), Commonwealth Bank (CBA) (+0.6%) — which has now trimmed its FY26 total loss to 11% — and ANZ (ANZ) (+0.4%) all advanced.

Materials (XMJ) (-1.6%) was dragged down by the gold selling, but the sector's decline also smacked of EOFY squaring — as base metals prices were broadly positive overnight and into Asian trade, with COMEX copper futures rising 1.6% to US$6.264/lb and SGX iron ore futures adding 0.3% to US$99.15/t. The disconnect weighed on Lynas Rare Earths (LYC) (-2.5%), South32 (S32) (-2.0%), Fortescue (FMG) (-1.9%), Rio Tinto (RIO) (-0.9%), and BHP (BHP) (-0.7%).

Energy (XEJ) (+0.4%) advanced without following any obvious script, given ICE Brent crude futures actually fell 0.6% to US$73.49/bbl in Asian trade. Karoon Energy (KAR) (+5.8%) was the standout mover, bouncing from last week's savage losses, with Viva Energy (VEA) (+1.0%), Woodside Energy (WDS) (+0.9%), and Santos (STO) (+0.8%) also firmer.

Information Technology (XIJ) (+0.3%) tracked a strong overnight lead from US technology stocks — a session where the sector-level logic at least held together cleanly. Megaport (MP1) (+6.4%), Weebit Nano (WBT) (+3.1%), Dicker Data (DDR) (+3.0%), and Life360 (360) (+1.6%) all advanced.

Lithium Carbonate Futures (Benchmark month, back-adjusted) GFEX

Lithium stocks were broadly higher as GFEX lithium carbonate futures staged a significant rally from a key technical support zone — the second consecutive session this has occurred — surging 6.1% to CNY 163,360/t.

Gains in equities were comparatively modest set against the scale of recent losses, and Pilbara Minerals (PLS) (-1.2%) notably missed out on the rally entirely. Wildcat Resources (WC8) (+3.0%), Galan Lithium (GLN) (+2.8%), Core Lithium (CXO) (+2.0%), Liontown Resources (LTR) (+1.5%), and Vulcan Energy Resources (VUL) (+1.3%) all advanced.

Analysis

Clean.

As a whistle. D > S = P ⬆️

There was some excess supply early, but it met a wall of demand... Which persisted into the close.

Above average OTR = A notable session.

Only average volume... But this is super interesting in its own right!!!

Why? Because it begs the question: Has the elevated supply side engagement come to an end? 🤔

If it has, then in its place, all that remains is... The same insatiable demand that we've grown to expect from the Comp in a bull market! 🚀

This is a very likely possibility.

However, as clear a demand-side-dominant showing that Monday's candle was – it would be unwise to get too far ahead of ourselves given:

• The short term trend ribbon is still signalling equilibrium (it's very flat and very amber)

• Price action is compressing lower peaks and rising troughs (also signalling short term equilibrium)

• Candles are roughly balanced (i.e., ZEBRA! 🦓) rather than signalling clear demand side control

These are the most tricky period's for trend followers like me: a strong signal in an otherwise still-tentative demand-supply environment. The long term uptrend is a valuable guide – as I've said many times here before – never doubt the ability of the Comp to manufacture the most incredible rally out of seemingly nowhere (no rhyme, no reason – just is! 😉).

Before I up my portfolio risk setting from 1/2RP to 2/3RP, let me see at least a strong close above the short term trend ribbon (presently 25795-25912) – but preferably also a strong challenge to the 26789-27191 supply zone. That's the big one...

FOMO is catching, granted, and it makes my conservatism appear unwarranted... But if the next leg resembles the last leg: i.e., +6000-odd points... Then what's the harm in making sure? 🤷

View

I am 1/2RP on the Comp ⚖️ (RP = Risk Position — it reflects my personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in US stocks. So 1/2RP is 50%, 2/3RP is 67% and FRP is 100% 🪣).

Key Levels

26789-27191 is the key zone of supply. 24980 is the key point of demand. The short term uptrend ribbon (presently 25795-25912) will likely also act as a zone of dynamic excess supply.

Analysis

8 days of light green short term uptrend ribbon, two days of amber, and today – back to light green.

I didn't program the ribbons to flip-flop like that, and ordinarily, I hope you agree they don't do it very often... But the math of it is both painful and simple: when the price action is so choppy and net-net flat – the short term trend ribbon is prone to some flip-flop!

And then we get to the fact that today's candle is such a pathetic follow up to the strong demand side showings of the prior two. But neither you, nor I, are surprised! 🤦

As stupid-and-fund-flows-manipulated as today's candle is – it adds so little to the demand-supply picture: I am going to refrain from even analysing it.

There's no change to the prevailing sideways chop. 🪓🪓🪓

The return to double green suggests a positive bias, but not enough yet to convince me to improve upon my 1/2RP stance.

View

I am 1/2RP on the OTP (i.e., my personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in Australian stocks is 50%).

Key levels

8984-9022 is the key zone of supply. Beyond that, it's 9201. Demand is 8708, but the long-term trend ribbon (presently 8699-8749) will likely also come into play as a dynamic zone of excess demand.

(Glossary of acronyms! OTP (Old Tin Pot): S&P/ASX 200 | MOTN: More Often Than Not | FOMO: Fear Of Missing Out | HOFU: Holding On For Upside | BTD: Buy The Dip | NUTE: No Urgency To Enter | FOHO: Fear Of Holding On | STR: Sell The Rally | RP: Risk Position)

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BHP & RIO vs CSL battle royale! Is the ASX Resources run over!? Copper, Iron Ore, Lithium and more

Today

• 11:30 AUS May Private Sector Credit

• Result: +0.7% m/m vs +0.6% m/m forecast and +0.7% m/m in April (solid result, i.e., consumers continue to borrow, and slightly higher than expected)

• 11:30 CHN June Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)

  • Manufacturing: 50.3 vs 50.2 forecast and 50.0 in May (readings over 50 indicate growth in a sector, so the Chinese manufacturing sector grew modestly in June, and slightly better than expected)

  • Services: 50.2 vs 49.9 forecast and 50.1 in May (modest growth versus a forecast decline)

Later this week

Wednesday

• 00:00 USA May Conference Board Consumer Confidence (94.2 forecast vs 93.1 in April)

• 00:00 USA May JOLTS Job Openings (7.28 million forecast vs 7.62 million in April)

• 11:30 AUS May Building Approvals (+0.2% m/m forecast vs -3.4% in April)

• 19:00 EUR June Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) Flash Estimate (+2.5% p.a. forecast vs +% p.a. in May)

• 23:00 USA Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh Speaks

Thursday

• 00:00 USA June Institute of Supply Managers (ISM) Manufacturing PMI

  • PMI: 53.7 forecast vs 54.0 in May

  • Prices: 79.0 forecast vs 82.1 in May

• 22:30 USA June Non-Farm Payrolls

  • Employment change: +114,000 forecast vs +172,000 in May

  • Unemployment rate: 4.3% forecast, unchanged

  • Average hourly earnings: +0.3% m/m forecast vs +0.3% m/m in May

Friday

• ALL DAY USA Independence Day Holiday