Evening Wrap: ASX 200 down as Trump's tariff war smashes WDS, STO, uranium stocks

ASX 200 futures are down 79pts (-0.98%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

The energy sector bore the brunt of the selling today as the global trade war stepped up a notch. The tit for tat continues...

Sector heavyweights Santos (STO) (-4.7%) and Woodside Energy (WDS) (-3.0%) no doubt knocked off the most index points, but it's worth noting that apart from this, the prices of most uranium stocks were pounded.

Click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key upcoming economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the NASDAQ Composite and the S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) in today's ChartWatch.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 47.6 points lower at 8,198.1, nearly smack–bang at the mid-point of the session's range (+0.59% from the low and -0.58% from the high!). In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO), advancers lagged decliners by a disappointing 62 to 217.

Another bruising day for Aussie stocks as global risk appetite continues to shrink. Stocks are barometer of growth, and investors simply don’t want to carry the risk that prevailing uncertainties surrounding the management of the US economy and global trade could worsen before they improve.

Earlier today, China responded to the new tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump by announcing plans to levy its own tariffs of up to 15% on certain U.S. products. The tit-for-tat escalates!

And investors are paying the price: Sell first and don't ask too many questions is the default strategy in times of uncertainty. Then, stick that cash in short term money markets or in the relative safety of longer term risk-free bonds – many of which are yielding multiples of the average dividend yield of some high-flying global indices.

US 10 year T-Bond Yield, shows us how investors have flocked to the relative safety of risk-free bonds (bond yields fall as bond prices rise) (click here for full size image)

In keeping with the aforementioned global economic growth concerns, the prices of major commodities including base metals, iron ore, and crude oil were lower overnight. This naturally dragged on Energy (XEJ) (-3.2%) and Utilities (XUJ) (-2.3%), as well as Resources (XJR) (-1.2%).

Brent Crude Oil Futures (Front month, back-adjusted) ICE (click here for full size image)

No doubt, big falls in sector heavyweights Santos (ASX: STO) (-4.7%) and Woodside Energy (ASX: WDS) (-3.0%) knocked the most index points off Energy, but it's worth noting that apart from this, the prices of most uranium stocks were pounded.

Interestingly, it wasn't due to lower a uranium price, as the front month COMEX contract was unchanged. A nasty overall trend, though, and local listings did track similar sharp falls in their overseas counterparts overnight.

The uranium price trend appears set to the downside... (click here for full size image)

Only defensive areas of the market, such as Gold (XGD) (+0.33%) and Health Care (XHJ) (+0.32%), escaped the selling. But overall, it's noting today's falls could have been far worse given the benchmark ASX 200 closed off a decent way off its lows – check ChartWatch below for technical analysis.

ChartWatch

NASDAQ Composite Index

Touch and go due to lack of touch and go... (click here for full size image)

Two candles since our last update on Friday. First, Friday’s inspirational-and-against-the-trend demand-side candle – white bodied, high close, from deep within the long term uptrend ribbon.

= Hope! 🤞

Then, last night’s Monday candle: Black, engulfing, close near the lows and deep into the long term uptrend ribbon.

= Quite an emphatic supply side showing! 🤦

All is not lost, though, the long term uptrend ribbon remains intact – just – but clearly there is enough fear and panic around to keep supply flowing and demand on the sidelines.

We can see what’s happening in the price action and the candles, it’s clear – Monday’s candle would be no surprise to regular readers of this section.

The big question is what one does about it? I can’t speak for you, but for me it means paring back risk. In other words, being prudent and vigilant on individual positions within my portfolio – aggressively pruning those charts that are no longer showing clear demand-side price action.

This will naturally bring back overall capital allocation.

Then, I must refrain from adding new risk over say, a 50% max allocation, until more room is made under such a cap.

I may also look to add some strategic short exposure to hedge the remaining long-side risk.

If you’re wondering which stocks might be suitable for shorts, good news – I publish a list of my favourite downtrends every day the market is open. Handy that.

Long term users of those lists have probably observed that more often than not, if a stock ends up in my downtrends lists it’s usually going to struggle.

Each investor must choose their own course of action, and I’m merely giving you an insight into how I prefer to manage portfolio risk when the benchmark index’s uptrend begins to wobble. My point is, I have a plan. Do you?

Looking back up to the above chart, we must see demand-side candles (i.e., white bodies and or downward pointing shadows) immediately. We shouldn’t see a continued sharp sell-off, nor even a gradual decline via supply-side candles – both would imply the demand-side is bust.

If the price should close below the long term up trend ribbon, and that trend ribbon should transition to amber and begin to act as a zone of dynamic supply – it will confirm the transition from bull to bear. This could take at least days, but even up to a few weeks. Keep your eyes peeled! 👁️👁️

On the other hand, should we get the demand-side candles we’re hoping for, then there’s likely going to be a wall of supply all the way up. I propose it won’t be until we can at least close above that 19141-19415 area / the short term downtrend ribbon that we can say we’re out of the woods.

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

Lingering demand, but not enough (click here for full size image)

It's fair enough if you feel like you're in the washing machine a little with your portfolio at the moment. Uncertainty is up, as is volatility, and share prices are paring back to compensate.

The price action and candles will tell us when the demand-side has returned with confidence, and similarly, that the supply-side has withdrawn to the sidelines.

Today's candle, with its modest downward pointing shadow demonstrates there remains lingering demand in the system. It continues to work its way into the market on dips for the most part (Thursday's candle suggests otherwise). This is reassuring.

Similar to the Comp chart above, the turnaround ideally starts from tomorrow's candle. It really can't wait too much longer before confidence/belief in the prevailing bull market is irreparably damaged.

With the price threatening to close below static points of demand at 8146 and 8160 and then the dynamic demand of the long term trend ribbon – there's little leeway until important long term trend delineators are crossed.

If we do see some follow through excess demand into tomorrow's candle, then supply is likely to be heavy around the short term trend ribbon and at static points of supply at 8353-8366.

I require at least a close above these two areas to feel confident the long term uptrend has held, and that we can rebuild the price action (rising peaks and rising troughs required) to once again test even higher points of supply.

Economy

Today

• 11:30 AUS Retail Sales January

  • +0.3% actual vs +0.3% forecast and -0.1% in December

Later this week

Wednesday

• 11:30 AUS Gross Domestic Product (GDP) December quarter (+0.5% q/q forecast vs +0.3% q/q in September)

• 12:45 CHN Caixin Services PMI February (50.8 forecast vs 51.0 in January)

Thursday

• 02:00 USA ISM Services PMI February (53.0 forecast vs 52.8 in January)

• 11:30 AUS Building Approvals January (-0.1% forecast vs +0.7% in December)

Friday

• 00:15 EUR European Central Bank (ECB) Main Refinancing Rate & Statement (2.65% forecast vs 2.9% present)

• 00:45 EUR ECB Press Conference

Saturday

• 00:30 USA Non-Farm Payroll Data February

  • Employment Change: +156,000 forecast vs +143,000 in January

  • Average Hourly Earnings: +0.3% m/m forecast vs +0.5% m/m in January

  • Unemployment Rate: 4.0% forecast vs 4.0% in January

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +19.0% Ecograf (EGR) – Epanko 'Life of Mine' Special Mining Licence Granted.

• +6.3% Spartan Resources (SPR) – No news, general strength across the broader Gold sector today.

• +4.8% Global X Ultra Short Nasdaq-100 Hedge Fund ETF (SNAS) – Nasdaq stock prices down… Nasdaq short ETFs up!

• +3.7% Praemium (PPS) – Change in substantial holding (increase from Spheria Asset Management).

• +3.4% BetaShares US EQY Strong Bear ETF (BBUS) – Ditto, short ETF will prosper when underlying asset price declines…

• +2.9% Lynas Rare Earths (LYC) – No news since 27-Feb Lynas Rare Earths FY25 Half Year Presentation.

• +2.7% Fleetpartners Group (FPR) – Becoming a substantial holder from PPT, Change in substantial holding (increase Australian Retirement Trust), and Becoming a substantial holder (Milford Asset Management).

Trading lower

• -13.3% BetaShares Crypto Innovators ETF (CRYP) - Big falls in major cryptos overnight.

• -10.2% Mineral Resources (MIN) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, one of the most Featured (highest conviction) stocks in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -9.9% Opthea (OPT) - No news since yesterday's Opthea Announces Phase 2b Wet AMD Publication.

• -9.8% Boss Energy (BOE) - No news, general weakness across the broader Uranium sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -8.5% Weebit Nano (WBT) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -8.4% Mesoblast (MSB) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short term downtrend and rising peaks and rising troughs 🔎📉

• -7.9% Develop Global (DVP) - No news, general weakness across the broader Resources sector today.

• -7.8% Healthco Healthcare and Wellness Reit (HCW) - Healthscope Update, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -7.3% Chalice Mining (CHN) - No news, general weakness across the broader Resources sector today.

• -7.1% HMC Capital (HMC) - No news 🤔.

• -7.1% Zip Co. (ZIP) - Ceasing to be a substantial holder from MQG.

• -7.0% Nexgen Energy (NXG) - Annual Financial Statements, general weakness across the broader Uranium sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -6.9% Peninsula Energy (PEN) - No news, general weakness across the broader Uranium sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -6.7% Neuren Pharmaceuticals (NEU) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -6.6% BetaShares Global Uranium ETF (URNM) - No news, general weakness across the broader Uranium sector today.

• -6.5% Cettire (CTT) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -5.9% Bannerman Energy (BMN) - No news, general weakness across the broader Uranium sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -5.9% Novonix (NVX) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, one of the most Featured (highest conviction) stocks in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

Broker Moves

• Life360 (360)

  • Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $28.00 from $27.75

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $27.00 from $25.00

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $28.60 from $25.00

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $24.88 from $23.14

• Amplitude Energy (AEL)

  • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $0.280 from $0.310

• Australian Finance Group (AFG)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $1.850

  • Upgraded to outperform from neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.680 from $1.640

• Aeris Resources (AIS)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.300 from $0.290

• Alkane Resources (ALK)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.250

• Austin Engineering (ANG)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.850 from $0.860

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.700

• Eagers Automotive (APE)

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $14.80 from $10.60

• Airtasker (ART)

  • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $0.560

• Bluebet (BBT)

  • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $0.470

• Burgundy Diamond Mines (BDM)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.100

• Bellevue Gold (BGL)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $2.00

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $2.20 from $2.25

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $1.500

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.700

  • Upgraded to hold from lighten at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $1.200 from $1.150

  • Retained at at UBS; Price Target: $1.900

• Bubs Australia (BUB)

  • Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.155 from $0.150

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.200

• Brambles (BXB)

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $22.80

• Camplify (CHL)

  • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $1.050 from $2.10

• Chalice Mining (CHN)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $5.75

• Capricorn Metals (CMM)

  • Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $7.84

• Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals (CUV)

  • Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $15.00 from $17.00

• Curvebeam AI (CVB)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.180 from $0.260

• Catalyst Metals (CYL)

  • Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $4.45

• De Grey Mining (DEG)

  • Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.970

• DGL Group (DGL)

  • Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.480 from $0.530

• DigiCo REIT (DGT)

  • Initiated at positive at E&P; Price Target: $5.13

• Deterra Royalties (DRR)

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $4.20 from $4.90

• DUG Technology (DUG)

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $3.00 from $3.60

• Develop Global (DVP)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $4.00

• Endeavour Group (EDV)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $4.50 from $4.87

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.10

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $5.90

  • Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $4.35 from $4.54

• Earlypay (EPY)

  • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $0.300 from $0.290

• Evolution Mining (EVN)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $7.00

  • Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $5.90

• Experience Co (EXP)

  • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $0.200 from $0.180

• Frontier Digital Ventures (FDV)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.520

• Generation Development Group (GDG)

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $6.30 from $4.90

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $5.80 from $4.94

• Genesis Minerals (GMD)

  • Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $3.35

• Gold Road Resources (GOR)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $2.95

• GPT Group (GPT)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $5.00

• Highcom (HCL)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.350

• Harvey Norman (HVN)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $6.00 from $5.80

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $5.80 from 5..20

  • Retained at sell at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $4.30 from $4.10

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.50 from $5.20

  • Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $4.00

  • Downgraded to lighten from hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $4.50 from $4.40

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $2.25 from $5.00

• IDP Education (IEL)

  • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $13.00 from $18.20

• Imexhs (IME)

  • Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $0.750 from $1.150

• Ioneer (INR)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.270 from $0.400

• IPH (IPH)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $6.75

• Iress (IRE)

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $10.70 from $12.00

• Jupiter Mines (JMS)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.220

• Kingsgate Consolidated (KCN)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $3.35

• Kina Securities (KSL)

  • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $1.440 from $1.450

• Light & Wonder (LNW)

  • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $220.00 from $175.00

• Lynas Rare Earths (LYC)

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $7.95

• Moneyme (MME)

  • Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $0.210

• Metro Mining (MMI)

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.170

• McMillan Shakespeare (MMS)

  • Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $16.30 from $15.80

• Medibank Private (MPL)

  • Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $4.52 from $4.11

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $4.80 from $4.25

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $4.90 from $4.30

• Newmont Corporation (NEM)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: US$56.00 from US$57.00

  • Initiated at add at Morgans; Price Target: $84.00

• Nobleoak Life (NOL)

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $2.85

• Northern Star Resources (NST)

  • Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $20.00

• NRW (NWH)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $3.85 from $4.05

  • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $3.40 from $3.85

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $3.55 from $4.10

• Objective Corporation (OCL)

  • Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $16.75 from $17.80

• Orora (ORA)

  • Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $2.40

• Pro Medicus (PME)

  • Retained at positive at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $295.00

• Pioneer Credit (PNC)

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.800

• Pantoro (PNR)

  • Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.115

• Pexa Group (PXA)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $14.50 from $15.70

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $15.00

  • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $13.90 from $14.62

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $17.40

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $15.75 from $15.50

• Qube (QUB)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $4.65 from $4.20

• Readytech (RDY)

  • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $3.45 from $3.74

• Resmed Inc (RMD)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $49.00

• Regal Partners (RPL)

  • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $4.50 from $4.40

• Regis Resources (RRL)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $3.75

• Resolute Mining (RSG)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.700

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.450 from $0.470

• Siteminder (SDR)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $7.20 from $7.65

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $6.50 from $6.20

• Santana Minerals (SMI)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.070

• Supply Network (SNL)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $34.20

• Service Stream (SSM)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $2.00

• Strike Energy (STX)

  • Upgraded to buy from hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.260 from $0.270

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.220 from $0.240

• Southern Cross Gold (SX2)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $4.00

• TPG Telecom (TPG)

  • Retained at sell at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $4.20

  • Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $4.40

  • Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $4.70 from $4.80

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $4.80 from $4.95

• Titomic (TTT)

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.300

• Tyro Payments (TYR)

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $1.600

• Vista Group International (VGL)

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $4.10 from $3.00

• Vysarn (VYS)

  • Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $0.580 from $0.550

Scans