Morning Wrap: ASX set to slide after Trump confirms tariffs for Mexico, Cananda

ASX 200 futures are down 71pts (-0.87%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

In a nutshell:

• ASX set to resume slide as US markets tumble

• Trump says Mexico, Canada tariffs “all set” to take effect

• Vix volatility index spikes nearly 20% 

Let's dive in.

Overnight Summary

Tue 04 Mar 25, 8:57am (AEST)

Name	Value	% Chg
Major Indices
S&P 500	5,850	-1.76%
Dow Jones	43,191	-1.48%
NASDAQ Comp	18,350	-2.64%
Russell 2000	2,100	-2.89%
Country Indices
Canada	25,002	-1.54%
China	3,317	-0.12%
Germany	23,147	+2.64%
Hong Kong	23,006	+0.28%
India	73,086	-0.15%
Japan	37,785	+1.70%
United Kingdom	8,871	+0.70%

Name	Value	% Chg
Commodities (USD)
Gold	2,898.3	+1.75%
Iron Ore	102.6	0.00%
Copper	4.5765	+0.63%
WTI Oil	68.2	-2.24%
Currency
AUD/USD	0.6216	+0.13%
Cryptocurrency
Bitcoin (USD)	86,163	-8.75%
Ethereum (AUD)	3,431	-15.00%
Miscellaneous
US 10 Yr T-bond	4.18	-1.21%
VIX	23.53	+19.99%

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 fades after lunchtime, but finishes off low (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks fell sharply overnight; Dow down 1.5%, S&P down 1.8%, and Nasdaq down 2.6%

• The afternoon session in the US saw most of the weakness, after Trump confirmed tariffs to go ahead on Mexico and Canada

• European markets close higher after defence stocks surge (CNBC)

• Cryptocurrencies surge after President Trump says tokens to be included in strategic reserve (FT)

STOCKS

• Intel shares rise after Reuters reported that chipmakers Nvidia and Broadcom are running manufacturing tests with Intel.

• Chinese buyers circumventing US export controls to order Nvidia's latest AI chips (WSJ)

• Tesla's sales slowdown in Europe putting at risk its revenue from selling credits to other automakers (Politico)

• Capri near deal to sell Versace to Prada for nearly $1.6B (Bloomberg)

• Shell explores sale of European and US chemical assets in strategic shift (Reuters)

• Elliott Management pressing BP to abandon all its renewable energy projects (LondonTimes)

• TSMC and Trump will reportedly soon announce $100B four-year investment plan into US chipmakers (Bloomberg)

• Board of Howard Hughes calls acquisition offer from Bill Ackman "not acceptable" (Bloomberg)

• Amazon-backed AI firm Anthropic valued at $61.6B after latest round (CNBC)

GEOPOLITICS & TRADE

• Trump says US will impose tariffs on external agricultural products starting 2-Apr (Bloomberg)

• Canada's oilfield drilling and services sector already showing signs of slowing due to US tariffs (Reuters)

• Mexico's president says country has backup plan if Trump goes through with threatened tariffs (Reuters)

• Germany considering establishing two $400B+ special funds, one for defence and one for infrastructure (Reuters)

• UK and France spearhead EU peace plan for Ukraine (France24) but disagree on initial ceasefire proposal (FT)

• Macron urges Europe to boost defence spending to over 3% of GDP (Politico)

• Zelenskiy rejects immediate ceasefire, demands security guarantees for Ukraine (FT), also open to meeting Trump again and accepting minerals deal (Bloomberg)

• Putin ally seeks to revive NordStream 2 with US investor backing (FT)

CENTRAL BANKS

• ECB nears end of rate-cutting cycle as internal divisions emerge (Bloomberg)

• BoE's rate cut strategy faces scrutiny amid inflation concerns (Bloomberg)

ECONOMY

• Eurozone inflation eases to 2.4% in Feb, supporting ECB easing plans (Reuters)

• Euro area manufacturing activity up in February (HCOB)

• UK manufacturing activity drops in February (SPGlobal)

• China second-hand home prices fall for a 7th consecutive month (Reuters)

• China manufacturing output at 3-month high on new orders (Reuters)

• Japan manufacturing deteriorates for 8th consecutive month (S&PGlobal)

• Number of Singapore companies seeking bankruptcy in 2024 hits 15-year high (StraitsTimes)

• New Zealand exports grow while imports contract (Bloomberg)

ASX TODAY

• ASX set to slide following rough night on Wall Street

• Iron ore drops on Trump tariff plans

• Gold stocks potentially the only place to hide, with the precious metal up 1.8%

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Star Entertainment Group attempting to access $60M from the sale of the Sydney events centre currently in escrow - Australian Financial Review

• Medibank Private acquires healthcare technology business Medinet - The Australian

BROKER MOVES

• FleetPartners Group upgraded to Buy from Hold at Canaccord Genuity; target remains at $3.40

• Australian Finance Group upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Macquarie; target up to $1.68 from $1.64

• Newmont initiated at Add at Morgans; target is $84

• Evolution Mining initiated at Hold at Morgans; target is $5.90

• NRW Holdings upgraded to Buy from Hold at Argonaut Securities; target down to $3.70 from $3.95

• Core Lithium initiated at Speculative Buy at Argonaut Securities; target is $0.18

• DigiCo Infrastructure REIT initiated at Positive at E&P; target is $5.13

Key events

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Tuesday 4 March: Ashley Services Group (ASH) – $0.008, Capral (CAA) – $0.40, Evolution Mining (EVN) – $0.07, Fleetwood (FWD) – $0.115, GR Engineering Services (GNG) – $0.10, Iluka Resources (ILU) – $0.04, Ironbark Capital (IBC) – $0.012, Karoon Energy (KAR) – $0.05, Lynch Group (LGL) – $0.05, Mystate (MYS) – $0.105, Nick Scali (NCK) – $0.30, Origin Energy (ORG) – $0.30, Pacific Current Group (PAC) – $0.15, Pengana Capital Group (PCG) – $0.02, QUBE (QUB) – $0.041, REA Group (REA) – $1.10, Servcorp (SRV) – $0.14, Sequoia Financial Group (SEQ) – $0.02, Sims (SGM) – $0.10, Solvar (SVR) – $0.06, Treasury Wine Estates (TWE) – $0.20, W T Financial Group (WTL) – $0.002, Worley (WOR) – $0.25.

• Wednesday 5 March: Accent Group (AX1) – $0.055, Australian Ethical Investment (AEF) – $0.05, Cleanaway Waste Management (CWY) – $0.028, Coles Group (COL) – $0.37, EQT Holdings (EQT) – $0.55, EVT (EVT) – $0.16, Excelsior Capital (ECL) – $0.04, HiTech Group Australia (HIT) – $0.05, IDP Education (IEL) – $0.09, IMDEX (IMD) – $0.015, Kina Securities (KSL) – $0.051, Mercury NZ (MCY) – $0.087, Netwealth Group (NWL) – $0.175, Ooh!Media (OML) – $0.035, Qualitas Real Estate Income Fund (QRI) – $0.01, QBE Insurance Group (QBE) – $0.63, Ramsay Health Care (RHC) – $0.40, Resimac Group (RMC) – $0.035, Shaver Shop Group (SSG) – $0.048, Sonic Healthcare (SHL) – $0.44, Woolworths Group (WOW) – $0.39.

• Thursday 6 March: Air New Zealand (AIZ) – $0.01, AUB Group (AUB) – $0.25, Australian Finance Group (AFG) – $0.038, Australian Unity Office Fund (AOF) – $0.24, Atlas Pearls (ATP) – $0.01, Beacon Lighting Group (BLX) – $0.041, BHP Group (BHP) – $0.785, Commonwealth Bank (CBAPG) – $1.357, Engenco (EGN) – $0.005, Freightways Group (FRW) – $0.171, G8 Education (GEM) – $0.035, GTN (GTN) – $0.025, Heartland Group (HGH) – $0.018, Integral Diagnostics (IDX) – $0.025, Jupiter Mines (JMS) – $0.007, Laserbond (LBL) – $0.004, Lovisa (LOV) – $0.50, Medibank Private (MPL) – $0.078, Meridian Energy (MEZ) – $0.054, Monadelphous Group (MND) – $0.33, Monash IVF Group (MVF) – $0.026, Mastermyne Group (MYE) – $0.005, NIB Holdings (NHF) – $0.13, Objective Corporation (OCL) – $0.09, Platinum Asset Management (PTM) – $0.015, Platinum Asia Investments (PAI) – $0.005, Platinum Capital (PMC) – $0.03, Praemium (PPS) – $0.01, Ramsay Health Care (RHC) – $0.40, Reliance Worldwide (RWC) – $0.04, Rio Tinto (RIO) – $3.536, Schaffer Corporation (SFC) – $0.45, Smartgroup (SIQ) – $0.31, Sky Network Television (SKT) – $0.076, South32 (S32) – $0.054, TPC Consolidated (TPC) – $0.20, TPG Telecom (TPG) – $0.09, Universal Store (UNI) – $0.22, Veem (VEE) – $0.002, Woodside Energy (WDS) – $0.831, Wotso Property (WOT) – $0.01.

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: Ansell (ANN)

• Listing: Dominion Income Trust (4 March), MA Credit Income Trust (5 March), Siguiri Gold Corp (7 March)

• Earnings: 88 Energy Limited (88E), Livehire (LVH)

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEDT):

• Australia – RBA Meeting Minutes at 11:30 AM 

• Japan - Consumer Confidence at 4:00 PM