Morning Wrap: ASX 200 set for positive start to new trading month after US markets rally

In a nutshell:

• Aussie market set for a positive start to the new trading month

• US markets rallied on Friday night, S&P and Nasdaq 1.5%+ each

• Investors looked past Trump-Zelensky clash

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 rallies into close, finishing near session high (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks rallied on Friday night, but despite the rally, US markets endured a volatile week and losing Feb

• S&P 500 surges more than 1% Friday to end stormy February as investors look past Trump-Zelenskyy clash (CNBC)

• Europe stocks secure 10-week winning streak, outperforming US in February (CNBC)

• Global hedge funds sold more stocks than they bought last week by the largest amount in a year (Reuters)

• China equities decline as Trump's tariff hike raises trade tensions (Bloomberg), Asian semis selloff amid Nvidia drag (Bloomberg)

• Goldman Sachs says investors should hedge corporate bonds as yield premiums may widen on tariff threats (Bloomberg)

STOCKS

• DeepSeek discloses cost and revenue data for its V3 and R1 models, claiming a theoretical cost-profit ratio of up to 545% per day (Reuters)

• US firm Firefly successfully accomplishes first moon landing with Blue Ghost spacecraft (Reuters)

• American business leaders souring on Trump as tariffs loom but deregulation traction yet to materialise (Semafor)

• Dell forecasts big increase in AI server sales, but profitability remains a concern amid margin decline (Bloomberg)

• Microsoft warns Trump committing strategic misstep if it proceeds with AI export controls (FT)

• Tesla preparing to launch ride-hailing service in California that could eventually use autonomous vehicles (Washington Post)

• OpenAI debuts GPT-4.5, its biggest model yet, saying it will be better at recognising patterns and drawing connections (Axios)

GEOPOLITICS & TRADE

• Zelensky says Ukraine still ‘ready’ for minerals deal with US after Oval Office blowup with Trump

• Trump objected to Zelensky’s tone, body language in Oval Office clash (CNBC)

• Zelensky seeks support at emergency European summit after bruising Trump encounter (CNBC)

• France, UK, and Ukraine announce agreement to work on a ceasefire plan to present to United States (AP)

• Europe will not be able to sufficiently assist Ukraine without US support or drastic changes to defence spending (Bloomberg)

• NATO chief tells Zelensky to make amends with Trump after tense public spat (Bloomberg)

• Trump signs Saturday executive order to increase lumber supplies, curb wood imports (AP)

• Treasury Secretary Bessent urges Canada, Mexico to match US tariffs on China as deadline looms (Reuters)

• South Korea's exports barely grew in February, missing market expectations, amid US tariff impacts (Reuters)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Fed officials continue to stress need for patience on rates amid inflation uncertainty (Reuters)

• BOJ Governor Ueda says outlook uncertainties remain extremely high, repeats potential for more JGB purchases (Bloomberg)

• Economists see growing risk that Trump's tariff policies will upend ECB rate cut outlook (Bloomberg )

ECONOMY

• Latest ECB data show Eurozone consumer inflation expectations ease (Reuters)

• Tokyo core inflation slows by more than expected, but remains above 2% target (Bloomberg)

• Japan industrial production falls for third straight month (Kyodo), retail sales rebound (Reuters)

• US likely added jobs at moderate pace in February with unemployment rate seen staying stable (Bloomberg)

• Growing number of Americans are losing faith in battle against inflation, fear higher prices here to stay (Bloomberg)

• Rising inflation expectations coupled with some recent softer economic growth readings revamping stagflation fears (Bloomberg)

• High interest rates and broader uncertainty discouraging Americans from making home improvements (FT)

ASX TODAY

• ASX set to bounce after two-week losing streak

• Volatility from policy decisions in US and China could add volatility

• Commodity-linked plays should catch a bid, gold and oil higher

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Star Entertainment Group considering options including converting Sydney hotel and casino complex into apartments

• Speculation Bain could revise and lower offer price for Insignia Financial (The Australian)

• Speculation around HMC Capital's offer to Healthscope lenders (The Australian)

• Bega keen to acquire the Australia and New Zealand business from Fonterra Oceania

Key events

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Monday 3 March: Apiam Animal Health (AHX) – $0.01, Aurizon (AZJ) – $0.092, Bell Financial Group (BFG) – $0.04, Big River Industries (BRI) – $0.02, Domino's Pizza Enterprises (DMP) – $0.555, Eureka Group (EGH) – $0.007, FSA Group (FSA) – $0.035, GR Engineering Services (GNG) – $0.10, IDP Education (IEL) – $0.09, Lynch Group (LGL) – $0.05, Medibank Private (MPL) – $0.07, Newmont Corporation (NEM) – $0.275, Propel Funeral Partners (PFP) – $0.074, REDOX (RDX) – $0.06, Regal Partners (RPL) – $0.10, Steadfast Group (SDF) – $0.078, Switzer Dividend Growth Fund (SWTZ) – $0.009.

• Tuesday 4 March: Ashley Services Group (ASH) – $0.008, Capral (CAA) – $0.40, Cleanaway Waste Management (CWY) – $0.028, EQT Holdings (EQT) – $0.55, Evolution Mining (EVN) – $0.07, Iluka Resources (ILU) – $0.04, IMDEX (IMD) – $0.015, Ironbark Capital (IBC) – $0.012, Karoon Energy (KAR) – $0.05, MyState (MYS) – $0.105, Nick Scali (NCK) – $0.30, Origin Energy (ORG) – $0.30, Pacific Current Group (PAC) – $0.15, Pengana Capital Group (PCG) – $0.02, QUBE (QUB) – $0.041, REA Group (REA) – $1.10, Resimac Group (RMC) – $0.035, Sequoia Financial Group (SEQ) – $0.02, Servcorp (SRV) – $0.14, Sims (SGM) – $0.10, Solvar (SVR) – $0.06, WTL Financial Group (WTL) – $0.002, Worley (WOR) – $0.25.

• Wednesday 5 March: Accent Group (AX1) – $0.055, Australian Ethical Investment (AEF) – $0.05, Cleanaway Waste Management (CWY) – $0.028, Coles Group (COL) – $0.37, EQT Holdings (EQT) – $0.55, EVT (EVT) – $0.16, HiTech Group Australia (HIT) – $0.05, Netwealth Group (NWL) – $0.175, Northern Star Resources (NST) – $0.25, Ooh!Media (OML) – $0.035, QBE Insurance Group (QBE) – $0.63, Resimac Group (RMC) – $0.035, Shaver Shop Group (SSG) – $0.048, Sonic Healthcare (SHL) – $0.44, Treasury Wine Estates (TWE) – $0.20, Woolworths Group (WOW) – $0.39.

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: Dicker Data (DDR), National Storage REIT (NSR)

• Listing: Stormeur Ltd (3 March), Dominion Income Trust (4 March), MA Credit Income Trust (5 March), Siguiri Gold Corp (7 March)

• Earnings: EBR Systems (EBR), Anteris CDI (AVR)

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEDT):

• China – Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Feb) at 12:45 PM

• Italy – Full Year GDP Growth (2024) and Government Budget at 08:00 PM

• Euro Area – Inflation Rate YoY Flash (Feb) at 09:00 PM