Evening Wrap: ASX 200 down as attention switches to lithium sector, PLS, MIN, LTR and IGO surge on commodity price recovery

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 13.8 points lower, down 0.15%.

Nothing goes down in a straight line forever! Well not for commodities, anyway. So, it's inevitable that the 3-year lithium bear market must end at some point – certainly, that's what investors were betting on today as they bid up the prices of beaten down ASX lithium stocks.

Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the S&P/ASX 200 in today's ChartWatch.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 13.8 points lower at 9,019.0, 0.39% from its session high and just 0.1% from its low. As if to prove that stuff-all happened today, in the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) advancers and decliners we’re nearly dead-even at 134 to 136. 🥱

For the week, the XJO finished up 23.7 points or 0.26% higher, 1.1% from its intraweek high and 0.6% from its intraweek low.

Fund flows: Hot laps = Old Tin Pot naps 😴

Super quick wrap tonight, because it’s pointless talking about “Fund Flows” when the funds weren’t flowing. Local fund managers no doubt enjoyed a nice round of golf, hot laps of Eastern Creek or Sandown in their lambos, or schmoozing their best clients at long lunches (the Old Tin Pot was in a coma from midday)… or whatever they do when they know there’s nothing for them to do…

Oh, you weren’t invited to lunch? 🍷

Don’t worry, neither was I! 😉

US CPI data tonight. Big risk event… and so, a small “risk off” vibe today – but given that bigger picture the technicals tell us funds are generally flowing towards ASX stocks rather than away from them – only a modest decline eventuated.

Information Technology (XIJ) (+1.3%) was the best on strong leads from the Nasdaq Composite. Nice to see ChartWatch ASX Scans Feature Uptrend regulars Weebit Nano (WBT) (+6.7%), Catapult Sports (CAT) (+4.7%), and Codan (CDA) (+3.5%) leading the way. Feature Downtrend regulars Wisetech Global (WTC) (+3.0%), Brainchip Holdings (BRN) (+2.6%) and Xero (XRO) (+0.2%) got a small reprieve.

At the other end of the spectrum, the Gold Sub-Index (XGD) (-1.6%) was the worst – proof that yesterday's feeble attempt at a bounce was nothing more than a dead cat… A super important week next week is shaping for the goldies – a substantial snap back is essential to keep investors enthused and their uptrends rolling.

Stock Specific: Lovely lithium

One thing is certain in markets: Nothing goes up in a straight line forever. One thing that's less certain is: Nothing goes down in a straight line forever.

Think Nokia, Blackberry, Lehman Brothers. (Yes, I know the first two were eventually purchased at pennies compared to their highs... only the second went bust...)

Zero is an option for stocks, but not for commodities. So, it's inevitable that the lithium bear market that's endured for nearly three years must end at some stage – if only to give way to a period of sideways consolidation.

It could be better than that, though, as you'll read in today's edition of ChartWatch Markets. Certainly, that's what investors were betting on today as they bid up the prices of beaten down ASX lithium stocks.

Many of the above have appeared regularly in the ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends lists since early August (Global X Battery Tech & Lithium (ACDC) was the first back on August 6). This hints at how stocks tend to lead a recovery in the commodity.

Global X Battery Tech & Lithium (ACDC) chart

How long will this "Lithium Spring" last? You know me, I don't do predictions – and that's not a cop out – it merely respects that prediction is futile because the future is unknown. Why waste time and effort trying to predict the future when one can simply just follow the trend?

And for now, the trends in the local lithium sector are up / improving.

Today's best blue chip gainers

Today's worst blue chip losers

ChartWatch

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

S&P/ASX 200 chart (click here for full size image)

Friday. Big risk event tonight in the US in the form of September CPI data (see Economy below for the numbers to watch out for 🧐).

Equals no interest from the fund managers to transact on the Old Tin Pot today. 🥱

Equals no change to the technicals.

Equals no point waffling on about nothing in particular!

View: No change in my prevailing view, trends, price action, and candles remain representative of demand-side-control of the XJO's price = FRP (Full Risk Position = My personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in Australian stocks is 100%).

Key levels: 8963 is the closest key point of demand, the price should not close below here if the demand-side is in control of the XJO’s price. Ultimately though, 8731 remains the critical go-no-go zone for the XJO bull market = ⚠️.

Economy

Today

• AUS October Flash Manufacturing & Services PMIs

  • Manufacturing: vs 51.4 in September

  • Services: vs 52.4 in September (revised up from 52.0)

Later this week

Friday

• 23:30 USA Core CPI

  • September Change: +0.4% forecast vs +0.4% in August

  • Annual Change: +3.1% p.a. forecast vs +2.9% p.a. in August

Saturday

• 00:45 USA October Flash Manufacturing & Services PMIs

  • Manufacturing: 51.9 forecast vs 52.0 in September

  • Services: 53.5 forecast vs 54.2 in September

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +27.5% Stakk (SKK) - Continued positive response to 23-Oct Stakk reports record revenue SaaS growth, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +19.4% Latrobe Magnesium (LMG) - No news 21-Oct Entitlement Offer Document Offer booklet rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and long term trend is transitioning from down to up 🔎📈

• +14.3% Core Lithium (CXO) - Becoming a substantial holder, general strength across the broader Lithium sector today, (Fourth Sail Capital 7.7%).

• +14.0% Motorcycle Holdings (MTO) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +10.5% Aeris Resources (AIS) - No news, general strength across the broader Copper sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +10.4% Liontown Resources (LTR) - No news, general strength across the broader Lithium sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +9.6% Eroad (ERD) - Ongoing Disclosure Notice - David Kenneson, bounced perfectly from long term uptrend ribbon! 🔎📈

• +9.5% Silex Systems (SLX) - Continued positive response to 23-Oct GLE Achieves TRL-6, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +9.1% Pilbara Minerals (PLS) - September Quarterly Activities Report, general strength across the broader Lithium sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +9.0% Regis Healthcare (REG) - Continued positive response to 23-Oct Regis to acquire two high-quality aged care homes.

• +8.7% EQ Resources (EQR) - Continued positive response to 23-Oct Updated Investor Presentation, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and long term trend is transitioning from down to up 🔎📈

• +8.0% IGO (IGO) - No news, general strength across the broader Lithium sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and long term trend is transitioning from down to up 🔎📈

• +7.5% WIA Gold (WIA) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +7.4% LGI (LGI) - Continued positive response to 23-Oct LGI announces $51.2M Placement & launches $5M SPP, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +7.3% 29METALS (29M) - 29Metals Board Changes, general strength across the broader Copper sector today.

• +6.9% Galan Lithium (GLN) - No news, general strength across the broader Lithium sector today.

• +6.7% Temple & Webster Group (TPW) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈

• +6.7% Weebit Nano (WBT) - Continued positive response to 21-Oct Investor Update, general strength across the broader Information Technology sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +6.5% Alcoa Corp. (AAI) - No news, general strength across the broader Resources sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and long term trend is transitioning from down to up, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +6.5% Mineral Resources (MIN) - No news, general strength across the broader Lithium sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +6.3% EVT (EVT) - AGM addresses - Strong Q1 and strategy delivering results.

• +6.1% Lumos Diagnostics Holdings (LDX) - AGM Chair Address and 2025 AGM Presentation, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

Trading lower

• -26.6% Mount Gibson Iron (MGX) - Reinstatement to Quotation and Koolan Island Operations Update.

• -15.3% Astron (ATR) - No news, general weakness across the broader Critical Minerals sector today, pulled back in the wake of recent sharp rally.

• -11.4% Australian Strategic Materials (ASM) - No news, general weakness across the broader Critical Minerals sector today, pulled back in the wake of recent sharp rally.

• -7.8% Race Oncology (RAC) - No news, pulled back in the wake of recent sharp rally.

• -7.4% Torque Metals (TOR) - No news since 23-Oct Paris expands with strong gold results.

• -7.4% Electro Optic Systems Holdings (EOS) - No news, general weakness across the broader Defence sector today.

Broker Moves

Alcoa Corporation (AAI)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $62.00 from $61.00

Astral Resources NL (AAR)

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.45

ANZ Group Holdings (ANZ)

• Retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: $30.00

Eagers Automotive (APE)

• Initiated at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $32.00

Bendigo and Adelaide Bank (BEN)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $13.00

Bellevue Gold (BGL)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $1.40

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $1.40 from $1.90

Bank of Queensland (BOQ)

• Retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: $6.75

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA)

• Retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: $125.00

Cochlear (COH)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $320.00

CSL (CSL)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $265.00

Corporate Travel Management (CTD)

• Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $15.00

Deep Yellow (DYL)

• Retained at speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $1.98

EVT (EVT)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $16.50

Fortescue (FMG)

• Retained at neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $21.50 from $20.00

• Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $19.30 from $18.50

• Retained at underweight at Jarden; Price Target: $16.50 from $16.00

• Retained at hold at Jefferies; Price Target: $18.00 from $17.50

• Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $18.50 from $16.50

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $21.20

• Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $21.50 from $20.00

• Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $20.00 from $19.00

Golden Horse Minerals (GHM)

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $1.22 from $0.81

Goodman Group (GMG)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $41.50

Helloworld Travel (HLO)

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $2.75 from $2.60

Insurance Australia Group (IAG)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $10.00

Judo Capital Holdings (JDO)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $2.20

Karoon Energy (KAR)

• Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $2.26 from $2.30

• Retained at overweight at JPMorgan; Price Target: $2.30

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.70

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $2.00

• Upgraded to buy from hold at Morgans; Price Target: $1.80 from $1.90

• Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $2.10

LGI (LGI)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $4.88 from $4.25

Monadelphous Group (MND)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $23.60

Medibank Private (MPL)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.70

Macquarie Group (MQG)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $225.00

National Australia Bank (NAB)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $37.50

NIB Holdings (NHF)

• Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.60

National Storage REIT (NSR)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $2.57

Northern Star Resources (NST)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $24.00 from $23.00

• Downgraded to accumulate from buy at Morgans; Price Target: $27.41 from $27.44

• Upgraded to accumulate from hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $27.00 from $25.80

• Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $22.50 from $21.00

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $27.60 from $28.20

NRW Holdings (NWH)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $5.50

NEXTDC (NXT)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $20.50

Pilbara Minerals (PLS)

• Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $2.70

Regis Resources (RRL)

• Retained at underweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $4.50

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $7.05 from $6.30

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $6.80

• Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $6.17 from $6.00

• Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $6.50

Reliance Worldwide Corporation (RWC)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.30

Silex Systems (SLX)

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $11.20 from $6.50

Super Retail Group (SUL)

• Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $18.30 from $18.70

• Upgraded to overweight from neutral at Jarden; Price Target: $17.90 from $18.00

• Retained at hold at Jefferies; Price Target: $16.50

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $17.30

• Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $14.40

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $17.75 from $18.25

Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $34.00

Temple & Webster Group (TPW)

• Upgraded to buy from hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $28.00

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $34.32

Vault Minerals (VAU)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $0.85

• Retained at buy at Euroz Hartleys; Price Target: $0.80 from $0.74

• Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $0.81

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.85 from $0.84

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $0.90

Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $38.00

Woodside Energy Group (WDS)

• Upgraded to buy from accumulate at Morgans; Price Target: $30.50 from $29.60

Scans