ASX 200 Live Today - Friday, 24th October

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Friday, October 24. We’re excited to trial this new format. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. Today's live blog will wrap up around 2:00 pm AEDT. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.

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ASX 200 flat, slightly higher for the week

[1:59 pm] ASX 200 currently down 0.10%, set to finish the week around 0.3% higher. It's been a fairly defensive week, with Utilities (+1.57%), Real Estate (+1.1%) and Telcos (+1.02%) leading sector gains. Energy (+2.24%) tops the leaderboard following Russia sanctions, though whether this rally has legs remains to be seen. Materials (-2.18%) struggled after touching a fresh all-time high on Tuesday, with a sharp pullback in gold and rare earths weighing on the index.

The market continues to linger around all-time highs. US-China tensions appear to be simmering, though they remain at risk of flaring up again at any moment. Recent economic data continues to reinforce the dovish outlook for both the RBA and Fed. Plenty of catalysts ahead, including US inflation data tonight (core inflation estimated to be unchanged at 0.3% MoM and 3.1% YoY), the bulk of US Q3 earnings season and our own bank results in early November.

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Banks 2H25 earnings preview

[12:46 pm] Australian bank results begin November 3rd, with the sector up 17.4% YTD versus ASX 200's 10.1%, though 1H25 results were generally in-line with consensus and 3Q25 updates showed favorable positioning to meet 2H25 expectations despite earnings quality impacted by one-off gains, according to UBS.

Key themes driving results include cost management and efficiency gains (with investor focus on restructuring guidance), NIM stability from lower price competition and residual replicating portfolio benefits, though FY26 will test pricing optimisation as these benefits fade and rate cuts pressure deposit costs and elasticity.

UBS prefers Westpac for upside potential aided by its growing business and institutional portfolio tilt (55% of 1H25 NPAT ex-centre), while Macquarie could surprise on the downside with earnings now 40/60% skewed versus Visible Alpha consensus, and ANZ is set to re-base earnings under its new CEO with potential restructuring charges. The sector trades at 21.4x FY26E P/E and 2.5x FY26E P/BV, above historical average but within one standard deviation, and appears fairly to fully priced on UBS estimates with potential rebalancing ahead as the resources sector improves in 2H25, particularly after CBA's 5.4% decline on in-line results last period demonstrated high market expectations.

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Lithium stocks running hot

[12:13 pm] Pilbara Minerals is up 6% this afternoon, up almost 300% since its brief $1.07 low on 3 June 2025.

Pilbara Minerals daily price chart (Source: TradingView)

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Top ASX 200 gainers and losers

[11:17 am] Regis tops the leaderboard in early trade. Looks like its catching a bid off yesterday's announcement (acquired two residential aged care homes with 230 beds for $45 million, expected to be EPS accretive in FY26). Lithium, aluminium names also broadly higher. Meanwhile, Newmont trending lower off the disappointing quarterly.

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Analysts take on Northern Star

[11:06 am] Northern Star reported a mixed Q1 production report on Thursday, with output and gold sales slightly below market expectations but a material beat on AISC. The stock finished the session up 2.3% vs. All Ords Gold (-0.2%).

• RBC Capital Markets maintained Sector Perform, raised target from $21.00 to $22.50. Notes solid Q1 despite seasonality, with an AISC beat from inventory drawdowns and Hemi permitting seen as a key catalyst.

• UBS maintained Buy, lowered target from $28.20 to $27.60. Says Q1 softness was expected, progress at Golden Pike North reduces risk, and long-term growth remains appealing.

• Macquarie maintained Outperform, target unchanged at $30.00. Notes production miss offset by cost control, with guidance intact and Hemi updates key to the outlook.

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Newmont slumps on Q3 update

[11:03 am] Newmont is trading 3.1% lower ($128.73) after its quarterly report missed guidance (Q4 and FY26) missed expectations.

The company just wrapped up its earnings call. Here are some of the key takeaways:

• Capital allocation remains disciplined with share buybacks and dividends prioritised over building net cash, maintaining the fixed $0.25/share quarterly dividend with $2.7-6 billion remaining in the repurchase program by year-end 2025.

• 2026 managed production guidance expected at the lower end of the 4.0 million ounce range driven by mine sequencing and asset transitions, with all-in sustaining costs pressured by lower grades at key assets though offset by ongoing cost and productivity initiatives.

• Ahafo North achieved commercial production on plan and is ramping smoothly with official opening next week, while Yanacocha mining concludes in Q4 2025 shifting to injection leaching and Nevada Gold Mines delivers higher ounces in Q4.

• Red Chris block cave proposal remains on schedule for mid-2026 board review with incident learnings integrated into the feasibility study, while project pipeline investments will compete for capital based on value accretion with divestment considered for assets lacking portfolio potential.

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ASX 200 edges higher

[10:29 am] The ASX 200 is up 0.13% this morning, with Energy and Utilities leading the modest charge thanks to oil prices jumping and aluminium at a 3-year high. The latter has seen alumina producer Alcoa Corporation up a tad over 10% today, with South32 up 1.42%.

By Tom Stelzer

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ASX oil stocks open higher on oil price surge

[10:16 am] As we reported earlier, WTI crude posted its highest one-day gain since June after the US announced new sanctions on Russia's two biggest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil.

It's therefore no surprise that ASX oil companies like Woodside Energy, Beach Energy and Karoon Energy are all up in early trading this morning. Karoon is leading the charge, up 5.73%, while Beach is up 1.6% and Woodside is up 1.70%.

By Tom Stelzer

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Australia Flash PMI: Manufacturing slumps, services shine

[9:55 am] Australia's Flash PMI Composite Output Index rose to 52.6 in October from 52.4 in September, marking the 13th consecutive month of expansion, though growth was entirely driven by services as manufacturing production contracted after three months of gains. The key takeaways from the S&P report include:

• New orders expanded at a solid pace but diverged sharply by sector, with services driving growth while manufacturing new orders fell at the fastest pace year-to-date due to sufficient client inventory levels and subdued market conditions attributed partly to challenging global trade conditions.

• Employment grew for the 10th consecutive month as services hiring offset renewed manufacturing job cuts, while firms cleared outstanding business for the sixth straight month.

• Input cost inflation fell to a near one-year low with easing services cost pressure, though manufacturing input prices rose at the quickest pace since April on higher material and transport costs alongside supply chain disruptions, port congestion and weather-related delays.

• Average selling prices rose at the slowest pace in five years as heightened competition limited pricing power, while business confidence fell to an 11-month low on concerns over rising competition and economic outlook despite above-50 Future Output Index readings.

Source: S&P Global

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Analysts take on Super Retail Group

[9:45 am] Super Retail delivered a mixed FY26 YTD trading update on Thursday, with strong performances from Rebel and Macpac, offset by slowing momentum in Supercheap Auto and BCF. Gross margins were reported as broadly stable vs. mixed analyst expectations. The stock slumped 4.0% on the day.

• Goldman Sachs maintained Buy, lowered target from $18.70 to $18.30. Sees stable margins and valuation near long-term averages, but trimmed earnings forecasts due to BCF weakness.

• JPMorgan upgraded to Overweight from Neutral, raised target from $18.00 to $18.80. Expects a rebound in auto, stronger Rebel performance, and stability under the new CEO.

• UBS maintained Neutral, lowered target from $18.25 to $17.75. Highlights slower sales at SCA and BCF, but improving trends at Rebel and Macpac with balanced risk-reward.

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Pilbara Minerals quarterly: First glance

[9:22 am] "Overall, a strong, clean first quarter of FY26, beating RBCe on realised pricing, costs, and recoveries. Production was marginally higher, while sales volumes were slightly lower due to shipment timing (likely to be made up next Q)," RBC Capital Markets analyst Kaan Peker wrote in a note this morning.

"The result confirms the Pilgangoora operation is running well post-P1000 expansion, with stronger cost discipline and improved recoveries supporting margins despite ongoing lithium-price volatility."

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Insider transaction: Ventia Services

[9:17 am] Ventia Services CEO Dean Banks sold 1.5 million shares between 20-21 October, representing ~18.8% of his holdings.

Mr Banks beneficially owns 6.5 million shares after the transaction.

Ventia has been a solid performer, up 51% year-to-date, off the back of several major contract wins, notably the recent $2.7 billion contract with the Department of Defence.

Company page: Ventia Services (VNT)

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Whitehaven September quarter production report

[9:13 am] Whitehaven reported managed ROM coal production of 9.0Mt, down 15% on a very strong June quarter. The 9.0Mt output falls 2% short of 9.21Mt consensus.

A few key takeaways from CEO Paul Flynn include:

• “New South Wales ROM production totaled 4.4Mt for the quarter, after being modestly affected in the quarter by flooding at the open cut mines, but partially offset by improved output from Narrabri following the long wall move in the previous quarter."

• “Demand for Whitehaven’s products continues to be strong. Equity coal sales were 5.9Mt for the quarter but a soft pricing environment persisted through the period."

• “Across the business, cost discipline remains a priority and we are tracking to be well within the guidance range of A$130-145/t cost of coal for FY26."

Whitehaven reaffirmed its FY26 guidance, including Group ROM coal production of 37-41Mt at unit costs of A$130-145 a tonne.

Company page: Whitehaven Coal (WHC)

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Sunrise Energy Metals secures Lockheed Martin partnership

[9:07 am] Sunrise Energy Metals has secured a partnership with Lockheed Martin to establish an Australia-US scandium supply chain, with Lockheed securing an option to purchase the first 15 tonnes per annum of scandium oxide from the Syerston Project over an initial five-year period (approximately 25% of forecast production), subject to formalizing offtake terms.

The partnership will cooperate on testing and qualification programs aimed at accelerating the adoption of scandium-containing components in Lockheed Martin's current and future product platforms, supporting the defense contractor's product development efforts.

The stock is up 1,700 year-to-date, marking some extraordinary momentum behind the world's largest high-grade scandium resource.

Company page: Sunrise Energy Metals (SRL)

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GPT Group acquires 50% stake in Grosvenor Place

[9:02 am] GPT has acquired a 50% interest in the "premium grade office tower", Grosvenor Place, 225 George Street, Sydney from the Commonwealth Superannuation Corporation for $860 million.

“Grosvenor Place is one of Sydney’s most iconic office buildings and this partnership with CSC will support the expansion of our $15 billion portfolio of office assets. This strategic investment represents an opportunity to secure a landmark asset in Sydney’s financial core at a discount to through-the-cycle value and replacement cost," said GPT CEO Russell Proutt.

The transaction is not expected to have a material impact on GPT’s 2025 earnings and will be initially funded with available borrowing capacity.

Company page: GPT Group (GPT)

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Pilbara Minerals Q1 activities report

[9:00 am] Pilbara Minerals with another operationally clean quarterly report:

• Production up 2% QoQ to 224.8kt vs. 215kt ests (4.6% beat)

• Sales down 1% to 214.0kt vs. 214.5kt ests (0.5% miss)

• Unit operating costs of US$353/t vs. US$382/t ests (7.6% beat)

• "Unit operating cost (FOB) decreased 13% to $540/t (US$353/t) compared to the prior Quarter, reflecting the continued realisation of operational efficiencies and cost reductions implemented across all areas of the business."

• Realised prices up 24% to US$742/t vs. $705/t ests (5.3% beat)

• Cash balance down 13% to $852m

Company page: Pilbara Minerals (PLS)

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Newmont Q3 earnings

[8:53 am] NYSE-listed Newmont shares are trading 1.3% lower after-hours, following a mixed quarterly result. The key takeaways include:

• Q3 EPS of $1.71 vs. $1.44 ests (18.8% beat)

• Q3 adjusted EBITDA of $3.31bn vs. $3.00bn ests (10.3% beat)

• Q3 capex of $727m vs. $840m ests (13% beat)

• Q3 gold production of 1.42Moz, in-line with market expectations

• Q4 guidance: Quarter-on-quarter free cash flow to be adversely impacted by continued ramp in spending for Yanacocha water treatment facility construction

• FY26 guidance: 2026 production to be within the same guidance range provided for 2025, due to planned mine maintenance and various other site transitions. Cost and productivity improvements achieved in 2025 potentially offset by increased profit-sharing, royalties, and production taxes if gold prices remain elevated into 2026. Capex anticipated to increase as key projects advance (UBS ests 2026 capex to be US$3.06bn vs. US$3.19bn in FY25).

Overall, the result reads very mixed, with above consensus Q3 offset by soft commentary for Q4 and 2026.

Company page: Newmont (NEM)

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Elon's 'infinite money glitch'

[8:48 am] Some interesting comments from Musk at the Tesla earnings call:

“Optimus at scale is the infinite money glitch. It’s hard to express the magnitude, if Optimus achieves even five times the productivity of a person per year, since it can operate 24/7, even tethered, it changes everything."

"That’s why I call it the path to true sustainable abundance, where work becomes optional. There’s a limit to how much AI can enhance human productivity, but not to AI that’s embodied. That’s why Optimus is the infinite money glitch.”

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Tesla rallies into positive territory

[8:42 am] Tesla shares opened 4.3% lower after its Q3 earnings missed market expectations. However, the stock managed to erase morning declines to close 2.2% higher.

Tesla daily price chart (Source: TradingView)

The key numbers from Tesla's Q3 2025 results include:

• Revenue up 12% to $28.01bn vs. $26.20bn ests (6.9% beat)

• Adjusted EPS down 31% to 50 cents vs. 54 cents ests (7.4% miss)

• Gross margin down 185 bps to 18.0% vs. 17.2% ests (80 bp beat)

• Vehicle deliveries up 7% to 497,099

• Outlook commentary: Maintains strong liquidity to fund long-term roadmap and capacity expansion, hardware profits gradually complemented by AI, software and fleet-based earnings, 2026 production pipeline includes Cybercab, Tesla Semi and Megapack 3

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Aluminium hits three year high

[8:38 am] Aluminium (+2.0% to US$2,852/t) has quietly pushed its way to the highest since May 2022. A few headlines floating around re supply shortage:

• ‘Green’ aluminium deficit looms in Europe after Century Aluminum outage in Iceland adds to supply jitters (Fastmarkets)

• Jeep production in Michigan hobbled due to aluminum shortage (NY Post)

Aluminium price chart (Source: TradingView)

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Trump and Xi to meet next week

[8:36 am] Trump and Xi will meet next Thursday on the sidelines of the APEC summit in South Korea, marking their first face-to-face since Trump returned to office in January and their first in-person meeting since 2019, with Trump expressing optimism that "everyone's going to be very happy" with the outcome.

The meeting comes as the US-China trade truce is set to expire November 10 unless extended, with tensions escalating after Trump floated scrapping the meeting altogether earlier this month over Chinese rare-earth export curbs and threatened an additional 100% tariff on Chinese products by November 1.

Source: Bloomberg

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Oil prices spike on Russian sanctions

[8:33 am] The US Treasury launched its first direct sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, Russia's two largest oil companies, calling for an immediate Ukraine ceasefire and aiming to degrade the Kremlin's ability to fund its war machine, while the EU announced a new energy sanctions package including a ban on Russian LNG imports beginning in 2027.

WTI crude posted its largest single-day gain (+3.99% to US$61.74) since June as tensions escalated following the collapse of plans for a Trump-Putin meeting in Budapest after Russia signaled no change to its maximalist Ukraine demands.

Despite the big one-day move, prices were previously trading at the sub-US$60 a barrel level, the lowest since February 2021.

WTI crude price chart (Source: TradingView)

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Good morning!

[8:25 am] ASX 200 futures are up 6pts (+0.06%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

The overnight session in a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks broadly higher (S&P 500 +0.58%, Dow +0.31%, Nasdaq +0.89%, Russell 2000 +1.27%)

• S&P 500 now within 0.2% of its 8-Oct record high

• Gold prices bounce (still down 6% since Monday), Copper back near recent highs, Aluminium in breakout mode as prices hit May-22 high

• Oil prices surged as US launches sanctions targeting Russia’s two largest oil companies

If you’re new to the blog – catch up quick via today’s Morning Wrap.