Evening Wrap: ASX 200 dips in listless trade, CSL leads healthcare higher, copper rebounds, iron ore falters

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 15.9 points lower, down 0.20%.

Paint drying.

Grass growing.

Snail climbing fencepost.

Today’s trading range of 24.1 points or 0.31% was the sixth smallest on record (in percentage terms).

That fact boggled my mind. As in: today was historically benign! 🤯

Is it the usual we can’t do anything good on a Friday for fear of impending major US economic data (note NFP’s are due tonight)?

Or is it we lack the necessary impetus to break through the record high of 7911?

Probably both, but evidence to support the latter is thus: 3 of the 10 smallest trading ranges on record for the S&P/ASX 200 in percentage terms have occurred in the last 11 trading sessions.

Mind officially boggled further! 🤯🤯

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 15.9 points lower at 7,815.9, 0.19% from its session low and just 0.12% from its high. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO), advancers lagged decliners by a narrow 125 to 140.

For the week, the XJO finished up 54.8 points or 0.71% higher, 1.6% from its intraweek low and just 0.32% from its intraweek high.

Health Care (XHJ) (+0.74%) was the best performing sector today, likely in response to gains in its largest constituent, CSL (ASX: CSL) (+0.76%). I’ve featured CSL in my ChartWatch Daily Scans uptrends list several times over the last couple of weeks. I think it looks even more the picture of demand-side control after today’s candle.

CSL looks even more the picture of demand-side control after today’s candle

Also doing well today was the Communication Services (XTJ) (+0.50%) and Utilities (XUJ) (+0.44%) sectors. The Gold (XGD) (+0.48%) sub-index also wasn’t terrible.

Reprising its role as customary worst performing sector, was Materials (XMJ) (-0.50%), but it was a modest pullback compared to the solid gains logged Monday, Wednesday, and Thursday. Iron ore wasn't great, neither was uranium, and lithium was spotty at best.

The biggest pullbacks in the Materials sector today

The rest of the sectors muddled around somewhere in the middle.

ChartWatch

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

Just had to put today's candle into perspective

You might need to zoom in to see today's candle or lack thereof.

For your reference, Wednesday (3 July) was the tenth smallest range by percentage for the XJO, and (devastated I missed it on the day!), 20 June was the smallest with 0.24%.

We really can't sum up the final burst of conviction, of courage, but ultimately, of excess demand to do the deal...to decisively break 7911 and get on with it!

No change to the analysis from the last update in the Evening Wrap from yesterday.

High Grade Copper Futures (Front month, back-adjusted) COMEX

Copper rebound could have legs

The last time we covered high grade copper was in ChartWatch in the Evening Wrap on 26 June.

In that last update it was all supply-side control. But as can be the case at any time, the demand-side may choose to declare enough is enough, and step back in.

They won’t send you a text message with a 🚀 emoji as code they’re about to go, but there’s one inescapable fact ensuring that will inform you of their intent.

Actually, there might be two: White-bodied candles and or downward pointing candle shadows.

Both indicate the demand side is creeping back in. The bigger the distance between a candle’s close and its low, the bigger the signal.

For high grade copper, since that last update, it’s been 5 white-bodied candles in a row. Today’s candle, the fifth, is still live, so we’ll take it with a pinch of salt.

Still, it’s looking the goods so far to close above the most recent point of supply at 4.59. If it can do that, in light of the fact it has already closed above the dynamic supply of the short term trend ribbon, one must therefore conclude the demand-side is indeed back in control of the price in the short term.

Long term control was never really in doubt – the long term uptrend remained up throughout the recent pullback and has for all intents and purposes appeared to have repelled the supply-sides short term challenge.

4.32 is demand, but also expect the short term trend ribbon to provide demand-side support. 4.70 is the next key point of supply, and 4.903 beyond that.

Assuming we get the close above 4.59, and assuming we close near the high of today’s session, I can’t see any reasons by high grade copper can’t continue to probe some of those higher supply points.

Economy

Today

• There weren't any major economic data releases in our time zone today

Later this week

Friday

• 22:30 Non-Farm Employment Change, Average Hourly Earnings m/m, Unemployment Rate June

  • +189K forecast vs +272K in May; +0.3% forecast vs +0.4% in May; 4.0% forecast vs 4.0% in May

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals (CUV) 14.6% - Afamelanotide Assists DNA Repair Response Following UVR

• Vulcan Energy Resources (VUL) 12.4% - Proposed issue of securities, fourth day bouncing from long term uptrend ribbon, closed back above short term trend ribbon 🔎📈

• Aurelia Metals (AMI) 7.7% - No news, solid rise in copper prices Thursday helped ASX copper sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈

• Chalice Mining (CHN) 6.9% - No news, bounced today after two days of sharp falls following Wednesday's Strategic MOU with Mitsubishi Corporation

• EML Payments (EML) 6.0% - Becoming a substantial holder from MUFG

• Mesoblast (MSB) 5.2% - No news, stock is typically volatile, but rise is consistent with prevailing long term uptrend, short term trend is turning up again 🔎📈

• West African Resources (WAF) 5.1% - No news, bounced today after sharp sell off following yesterday's West African Receives Firm commitments for A$150m

• Westgold Resources (WGX) 4.8% - No news, continued positive response to yesterday's Westgold Declares Second Dividend for FY24, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈

• Magellan Financial Group (MFG) 4.7% - No news, continued positive response to yesterday's Funds Under Management and Performance Fee Update- June 2024

• 29METALS (29M) 4.7% - No news, solid rise in copper prices Thursday helped ASX copper sector today

• Southern Cross Electrical Engineering (SXE) 4.2% - SCEE awarded Collie Battery Switchyard works, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈

• Macquarie Technology Group (MAQ) 2.9% - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈

• Spartan Resources (SPR) 2.7% - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈

• Resolute Mining (RSG) 2.6% - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈

Trading lower

• Boss Energy (BOE) -6.1% - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short term downtrend, long term trend is transitioning from up to down 🔎📉

• Clarity Pharmaceuticals (CU6) -4.2% - No news 🤔

• Seven Group (SVW) -3.7% - Change in substantial holding for BLD, fall is consistent with prevailing short term downtrend and falling peaks and falling troughs 🔎📉

• Centuria Capital Group (CNI) -3.7% - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short term downtrend, long term trend is transitioning from up to down 🔎📉

• Jupiter Mines (JMS) -3.6% - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short term downtrend and falling peaks and falling troughs 🔎📉

• Infomedia (IFM) -3.1% - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short term downtrend and falling peaks and falling troughs 🔎📉

• Droneshield (DRO) -3.0% - No news, pullback after massive rally

• Lotus Resources (LOT) -2.9% - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short term downtrend, long term trend is transitioning from up to down 🔎📉

• Nexgen Energy (NXG) -2.7% - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short term downtrend, long term trend is transitioning from up to down 🔎📉

• Weebit Nano (WBT) -2.6% - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends 🔎📉

Broker Notes

AIC Mines (A1M)

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $1.20

Ansell (ANN)

• Downgraded to neutral from neutral at E&P; Price Target: $24.50

Arena Reit. (ARF)

• Downgraded to neutral from buy at UBS; Price Target: $3.94 from $3.97

ASX (ASX)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $61.90

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $60.00 from $60.50

Bellevue Gold (BGL)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $2.25 from $2.30

BHP Group (BHP)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $44.00 from

Boss Energy (BOE)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.00 from $6.00

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $4.55 from $4.65

BWP Trust (BWP)

• Downgraded to neutral from buy at UBS; Price Target: $3.79 from $3.80

Chalice Mining (CHN)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $1.50 from

Collins Foods (CKF)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $10.80

Centuria Capital Group (CNI)

• Downgraded to sell from neutral at UBS; Price Target: $1.51 from $1.53

Coles Group (COL)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $17.50

Coronado Global Resources (CRN)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $1.95 from $1.80

Clean Seas Seafood (CSS)

• Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.22 from $0.27

De Grey Mining (DEG)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $1.80 from $2.10

Domino's Pizza Enterprises (DMP)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $41.00

Deterra Royalties (DRR)

• Upgraded to buy from neutral at UBS; Price Target: $4.90 from $4.80

Endeavour Group (EDV)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.60

Evolution Mining (EVN)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $3.70 from $3.80

Fortescue (FMG)

• Retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: $18.90 from $22.30

Global Lithium Resources (GL1)

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $2.20

Genesis Minerals (GMD)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $2.15 from $2.30

Goodman Group (GMG)

• Downgraded to sell from neutral at UBS; Price Target: $31.71 from $29.25

Gold Road Resources (GOR)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $2.35 from $2.55

Harvey Norman (HVN)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.30

IGO (IGO)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $6.00

• Upgraded to neutral from sell at UBS; Price Target: $6.10 from $5.95

Iluka Resources (ILU)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $7.70 from

Inghams Group (ING)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.20

JB HI-FI (JBH)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $63.00

Jumbo Interactive (JIN)

• Initiated at sell at Citi; Price Target: $15.50

Lendlease Group (LLC)

• Upgraded to neutral from sell at UBS; Price Target: $5.79 from $5.56

Arcadium Lithium (LTM)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $6.60

Lynas Rare Earths (LYC)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $6.90 from

Magellan Financial Group (MFG)

• Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $8.20 from $8.40

Mirvac Group (MGR)

• Upgraded to buy from neutral at UBS; Price Target: $2.19 from $2.23

Mineral Resources (MIN)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $61.00 from $62.00

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $79.00

• Retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: $54.00 from $56.00

• Metro Mining (MMI) retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.13 from $0.07

Metcash (MTS)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.20

Newmont Corporation (NEM)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $75.00 from

New Hope Corporation (NHC)

• Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $4.70

Nickel Industries (NIC)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.10

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $0.95

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $1.10 from

Northern Star Resources (NST)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $16.00 from $18.50

Pilbara Minerals (PLS)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.25

• Retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: $2.60 from $2.50

Patriot Battery Metals (PMT)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $1.00 from

Rio Tinto (RIO)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $125.00 from $127.00

Regal Partners (RPL)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $4.75

Regis Resources (RRL)

• Downgraded to neutral from buy at UBS; Price Target: $1.85 from $2.10

South32 (S32)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $4.20 from $4.15

Scentre Group (SCG)

• Downgraded to sell from neutral at UBS; Price Target: $2.96 from $2.98

Sandfire Resources (SFR)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $10.30 from $10.00

Sigma Healthcare (SIG)

• Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.90

Smartgroup Corporation (SIQ)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $10.95 from $11.00

SSR Mining (SSR)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $9.60 from $10.20

Suncorp Group (SUN)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $20.20 from $17.05

Seven Group (SVW)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $43.00 from $45.00

Southern Cross Gold (SXG)

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $3.26

Syrah Resources (SYR)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $0.80 from

The Lottery Corporation (TLC)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $5.60

Talga Group (TLG)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $1.70 from

Treasury Wine Estates (TWE)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $12.95

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $15.60

Vicinity Centres (VCX)

• Upgraded to neutral from sell at UBS; Price Target: $1.86

Wesfarmers (WES)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $65.40

Whitehaven Coal (WHC)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $9.65 from $8.85

Woolworths Group (WOW)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $35.00

Scans