Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to tick lower, US market closed, Labour set for historic UK win

ASX 200 futures are trading 14 points lower, down -0.18% as of 8:30 am AEST.

US markets were closed in observance of the Independence Day holiday, European stocks ticked higher as voting began in the UK election, commodity prices continued edge higher overnight and expect a pretty boring session for the local sharemarket.

Let's dive in.

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• US market closed for Fourth of July Independence Day

• European benchmarks ticked higher as voting began in the UK general election, with polls predicting a historic victory for the Labour party

• STOXX 600 up 0.6% to a one-week high, FTSE 100 advanced 0.8%, CAC up 0.6% to a near-one month high amid growing efforts by opponents of France’s National Rally to prevent the far-right party from gaining power

• Top performing European sectors included Financials, Energy and Discretionary

• 'Trump trade' in focus as strategists weigh market impact of looser fiscal policy and increased protectionism (Bloomberg)

• Morgan Stanley says buy French stocks before Sunday's second round runoff vote on rebound hopes (Bloomberg)

• Boom in active bond ETFs could put total inflows on track for US$1tn year, bolstered by retail interest (FT)

STOCKS

• Tesla cars for first time on Chinese government purchase list (Reuters)

• Nvidia to sell US$12bn worth of AI chips to China this year despite US controls (FT)

• Amazon and Australian government partner up to build cloud data system to handle top secret information (Bloomberg)

• AI frenzy expected to give 13 fold boost to Samsung second quarter profit (Reuters)

• Francisco Partners and KKR interesting in acquiring educational software provider Infrastructure Holdings (Bloomberg)

CENTRAL BANKS

• June's FOMC minutes note slowing economy, seeks more evidence of cooling inflation, cooling demand may lift unemployment (Bloomberg)

• ECB policymakers view French elections as sign of a broader shift in a more populist, protectionist and turbulent direction (FT)

POLITICS

• UK's Labour party on course for biggest majority since 1832 (FT)

• UK PM Sunak set to stay on as leader if Tories lose the election (London Times)

• Le Pen denounces rivals' efforts to keep far right from power (Bloomberg)

• Macron's gamble raises stakes for Europe's future (Reuters)

• Biden says he is not going anywhere (Axios)

• Democratic lawmakers considering demanding Biden drop out of race (Bloomberg)

• Latest polls show Trump pulling ahead of Biden nationally (NY Times)

ECONOMY

• US nonfarm payrolls for June expected to show step-down in hiring alongside a moderation in wage growth (Bloomberg)

• German factory orders much weaker than expected in May (Bloomberg)

• Swiss inflation unexpectedly eased, supporting the SNB's rate cuts (Bloomberg)

ASX 200 DAILY CHART

Here's an ASX 200 daily chart to compensate for the lack of tables today (Source: TradingView)

ASX TODAY

• ASX 200 set to tick lower after a sizeable rally on Thursday, which pushed the index to within 1% of all-time highs

• Saudi Aramco denies reports it plans to submit and offer for Santos (Reuters)

• Seven Group completes announced compulsory acquisition of Boral (BLD)

• Suncorp issues trading update, natural hazard experience estimated to be $1.23bn against an allowance of $1.36bn, reaffirms underlying margins between 10-12%, lifts FY25 natural hazard allowance (SUN)

 WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Not a whole lot – Very few announcements and no US market lead ... expect below average trading volumes

BROKER MOVES

• Ansell downgraded to Negative from Neutral; get remains $24.50 (E&P) 

• Jumbo Interactive initiated with Sell and $15.50 target (Citi)

Companies trading ex-dividend: 

• Fri 5 July: None

• Mon 8 July: Collins Foods (CKF) – $0.155

• Tue 9 July: None

• Wed 10 July: None

• Thu 11 July: None

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: None  

• Listing: None

• Earnings: None

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEST):

• 7:00 pm: Eurozone Retail Sales (May)

• 10:30 pm: Canada Unemployment Rate (Jun)

• 10:30 pm: US Non Farm Payrolls (Jun)

• 10:30 pm: US Unemployment Rate (Jun)