Evening Wrap: ASX 200 dips despite strong rally in Woodside Energy, as major banks and iron ore miners drag

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 10.7 points lower, down 0.13%.

A disappointing result for the XJO at the headline, declining on a day with so many positive overseas leads, as major banking and mining stocks suffered modest falls. On a positive note, there were several strong performances among Energy stocks in particular, but also across the Real Estate and Technology sectors.

To make sense of all the above, I have detailed technical analysis on the Nasdaq Composite, S&P/ASX 200, and Gold in today's ChartWatch.

Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key upcoming economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 10.7 points lower at 8,396.9, 0.67% from its session high and just 0.05% from its low. Despite the malaise in the benchmark, in the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) advancers beat decliners by 167 to 106.

At the headline, a disappointing result for the XJO, declining on a day with so many positive overseas leads (US and European stocks were sharply higher and base metals were up). But there were several strong performances, as perhaps evidenced by the positive market breadth across the ASX 300.

Energy (XEJ) (+2.2%) was the strongest sector, with strong performances in coal, oil and gas, and a few of the uranium cohort. Woodside Energy (WDS) (+3.2%) and Whitehaven Coal (WHC) (+2.7%) and Paladin Energy (PDN) (+2.5%) were notable. Also notable was ChartWatch ASX Scans downtrends list stalwart Coronado Global Resources (CRN) (+12.5%) – it rose for the second session as Australian Super announced it was no longer a major shareholder.

Falling long term risk-free yields helped interest rate sensitive sectors like Real Estate Investment Trusts (XPJ) (+1.3%), Information Technology (XIJ) (+1.3%), and Utilities (XUJ) (+0.63%). Charter Hall Group (CHC) (+2.5%), Megaport (MP1) (+3.5%), and Bravura Solutions (BVS) (+3.5%) were the best in those.

Perhaps one explanation for why the benchmark underperformed the broader market, is because key index heavyweights among Financials (XFJ) (-0.70%) and Materials (XMJ) (-0.40%) were modestly lower. The big banks were down 0.6-1.1% with National Australia Bank (NAB) (-1.1%) the worst, while Rio Tinto (RIO) (-0.94%) and Mineral Resources (MIN) (-5.5%) dragged on the miners.

ChartWatch

NASDAQ Composite Index

An interesting chart (click here for full size image)

Gap = major change in demand and supply side view of fair value.

Gap up = wall of demand + supply-side vacuum in gap price range

Gaps are powerful signals that something important has occurred in the demand-supply environment.

Tuesday’s candle’s gap also closed on session high with white body / downward pointing shadow:

= environment of excess demand sustained into the close

= likely unrequited demand (the only thing that stopped the demand-side from buying more stock was the closing bell rang)

= likely at least positive open next session

In conclusion, Tuesday’s candle is about as strong a demand-side showing as we could have hoped for. As suggested in previous updates, a move like this likely nullifies the supply-side – convincing many that they’re better off holding on for more. This lack of supply will be important in facilitating the next move higher.

New, higher trough (18599) continues very strong price action of rising peaks and rising troughs (with strong motive phases and shallow stagnation phases).

Short and long term uptrends remain intact, and new trough confirms they continue to act as zones of dynamic demand.

Conclusions? Total demand-side control.

Next supply? Some at 19242, I wouldn’t completely discount this – because of the overwhelming supply-side nature of the candle that created it – but then 20205.

Let me just say that again: The next key point of supply is the all-time high. How about that!

18599 is the key point of demand. It also coincides with the dynamic demand of the short and long term uptrend ribbons. The demand-side remains in control as long as the Comp continues to close above these levels.

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

An interesting chart (click here for full size image)

At this point you’re probably thinking, wow, those Comp technicals are pretty solid. What a resounding show of confidence in US stocks.

And then you get to our market, and today’s candle 😭.

And here’s the kicker: I bet you’re not surprised one iota!

We can whinge about our tin pot market all we like, but at the end of the day we must respect that international investors have a choice. Investing a our few big banks, few big miners, couple of supermarkets, Wesfarmers, Telstra and well, I’ve probably just described about 90% of the XJO by market cap.

Or they can buy Apple, Microsoft, NVIDIA, Google, Amazon and all that kind of stuff.

So, we end up with today’s candle.

Comp: Demand-side falling over itself to buy versus supply-side holding on for more 🚀.

XJO: Demand-side showing early motivation (dragged higher by US stocks positivity) versus a supply-side looking to cash in on early higher prices and liquidity 👎.

Anyways, the broader technicals are still demand-side control oriented. Trend ribbons, price action, and for the most part, candles.

But it looks like the 8445 point of supply is belligerently holding on. Still, I suggest if we can close above it, we’re a good chance for a shot at 8616. So, when you think about it, we’re not that far behind Comp.

8284 and the short term uptrend ribbon coincide to form the key demand zone. As long as the XJO continues to close above this zone the short term uptrend is intact.

Gold Futures (Front month, back-adjusted) COMEX

An interesting chart (click here for full size image)

The last time we covered gold was in ChartWatch in the Evening Wrap on 19 May.

In that update, I was highly sceptical about gold’s ability to pull itself back up above the short term trend ribbon, and therefore to avoid a date with the dynamic demand of the long term uptrend ribbon.

It did, with some decent demand-side candles on 20 & 23-May. It was actually looking better than half-decent to reclaim its all-time high by the close of that 23-May candle.

However, the supply side took another shot on last night (i.e., 27-May candle – last candle on chart above is live – discount it!), forming a new and second lower trough at 3365.8.

So, we’re 3448.2 and 3365.8 on lower peaks, we know we’re also running lower troughs (3123.3 to 3209).

I put to you this cannot happen if we’re in an environment of total demand-side control. So, I’m still a sceptic on gold.

I propose it absolutely must hold above the short term uptrend ribbon now – a close below it will further erode the demand-side’s resolve and embolden the part of the supply-side looking for shorts plus create doubt among the part of the supply-side who are true believers.

On that last point, I am not and never have been a true believer in gold – or anything for that matter. I have no time for gold bugs and their unending belief that gold must go to a zillion dollars an ounce, fiat is going to hell in a hand basket, and only those with gold will be able to pay for a loaf of bread 😁.

The only thing in markets I am a true believer in is: D + S = P.

Gold has some issues here. A close below the short term uptrend ribbon will likely spur a push towards 3123.3. Alternatively, a close above 3365.8 not only proves me further wrong on this one but it likely sets up a probe of the 3448.2-3509.9 major excess supply zone.

Economy

Today

• AUS Consumer Price Index April m/m

  • +2.4% p.a. vs +2.3% p.a. forecast and +2.4% p.a. in March

  • Pressure from large monthly rises in fruit, eggs, and travel, but marks ninth straight monthly reading within RBA's 2-3% p.a. target band

  • Not likely to move the dial one way or the other with the RBA

Later this week

Thursday

• 04:00 USA FOMC May Meeting Minutes

• 22:30 USA Prelim GDP March q/q (-0.3% q/q forecast vs -0.3% q/q in December)

Friday

• 00:00 USA Pending Home Sales April m/m (-1.0% forecast vs +6.1% in March)

• 11:30 AUS Retail Sales April m/m (+0.3% m/m vs +0.3% m/m in March)

• 11:30 AUS Building Approvals April m/m (+0.3% m/m vs +0.3% m/m in March)

• 22:30 USA Core PCE Price Index April m/m (+0.1% m/m and +2.6% p.a. vs 0.0% m/m and +2.6% p.a. in March)

Saturday

• 11:30 CHN Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) May

  • Manufacturing: 49.5 forecast vs 49.0 in April

  • Non-Manufacturing: 50.6 forecast vs 50.4 in April

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +20.5% Dateline Resources (DTR) – No news since, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +20.4% Metals Acquisition (MAC) – Binding Scheme Implementation Deed with Harmony, general strength across the broader Copper sector today.

• +15.7% Eroad (ERD) – EROAD 2025 Notice of Meeting.

• +12.5% Coronado Global Resources (CRN) – Substantial Securityholder Notice, general strength across the broader Energy sector today, (possibly the end / nearing the end of a major seller's exit).

• +12.4% WEB Travel Group (WEB) – Appendix 4E and Annual Report.

• +9.2% 4DS Memory (4DS) – Response to ASX Price Query.

• +7.4% Turaco Gold (TCG) – Ceasing to be a substantial holder for MPK, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +6.9% Generation Development Group (GDG) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +6.7% Rpmglobal (RUL) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈

• +5.1% Lotus Resources (LOT) – No news, general strength across the broader Energy sector today.

• +4.9% Block (XYZ) – No news 🤔.

• +4.5% Trigg Minerals (TMG) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +4.3% EML Payments (EML) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +4.3% WIA Gold (WIA) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +3.8% Temple & Webster Group (TPW) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +3.5% Megaport (MP1) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +3.5% Southern Cross Gold (SX2) – SX2 Drills 3.4m @ 466 g/t Gold at Sunday Creek.

• +3.5% Bravura Solutions (BVS) – Continued positive response to 27-May Change of Director's Interest Notice (Damien Leonard on market purchase of 1.43 million shares at an average price of approx. $2.147 per share).

Trading lower

• -19.5% Predictive Discovery (PDI) – Argo and Bokoro Exploration Permits Update.

• -7.8% IPD Group (IPG) – No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -7.6% ALS (ALQ) – Successful Completion of Institutional Placement.

• -7.0% Chalice Mining (CHN) – Becoming a substantial holder (potentially an increase in short selling activity here), fall is consistent with prevailing long term downtrend 🔎📉

• -6.0% Infratil (IFT) – Infratil Full Year Results for the year ended 31 March 2025.

• -5.6% Brightstar Resources (BTR) – No news 🤔.

• -5.5% Mineral Resources (MIN) – Onslow Iron Update and Onslow Iron site visit presentation, fall is consistent with prevailing long term downtrend 🔎📉

• -5.5% Liontown Resources (LTR) – No news, fall is consistent with prevailing long term downtrend 🔎📉

• -4.8% Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corporation (FPH) – Preliminary Final Report.

• -4.3% Warriedar Resources (WA8) – $17M Placement to Fast Track Resource Growth at Ricciardo.

• -4.3% Core Lithium (CXO) – No news 🤔.

• -4.1% Dimerix (DXB) – No news 🤔.

• -3.9% EBR Systems (EBR) – Security Purchase Plan Opens, fall is consistent with prevailing short term downtrend and long term trend is transitioning from up to down, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -3.8% IDP Education (IEL) – No news since 27-May Ceasing to be a substantial holder, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, one of the most Featured (highest conviction) stocks in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -3.5% Cettire (CTT) – No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, one of the most Featured (highest conviction) stocks in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -3.4% Jumbo Interactive (JIN) – No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -3.1% IGO (IGO) – ENR regains 100% of Yeneena Copper - Paterson Province, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends 🔎📉

• -3.2% Novonix (NVX) – No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -3.0% Kogan.Com (KGN) – No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -2.7% Clarity Pharmaceuticals (CU6) – No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

Broker Moves

Aussie Broadband (ABB)

• Retained at overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $4.35

Adriatic Metals (ADT)

• Downgraded to hold from add at Morgans; Price Target: $4.74 from $4.50

ALS (ALQ)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $19.70 from $20.00

• Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $17.80

• Retained at underweight at Jarden; Price Target: $14.60 from $15.00

• Downgraded to hold from buy at Jefferies; Price Target: $18.20 from $18.80

• Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $20.00 from $20.50

Amcor (AMC)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $20.31

ANZ Group (ANZ)

• Retained at overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $30.00

Eagers Automotive (APE)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $14.80

Aurizon (AZJ)

• Upgraded to add from hold at Morgans; Price Target: $3.10 from $3.28

Breville Group (BRG)

• Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $30.75 from $33.45

Bathurst Resources (BRL)

• Initiated at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.950

Bluescope Steel (BSL)

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $24.00

Brambles (BXB)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $22.00

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA)

• Retained at sell at Jarden; Price Target: $110.00

Dyno Nobel (DNL)

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $2.90

Elders (ELD)

• Downgraded to underperform from hold at Taylor Collison; Price Target: $5.85

Fletcher Building (FBU)

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $3.04

Goodman Group (GMG)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $37.50

Guzman y Gomez (GYG)

• Retained at sell at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $29.00 from $33.60

Insurance Australia Group (IAG)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $9.30

Imdex (IMD)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $2.90

James Hardie Industries (JHX)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $53.00

Lovisa (LOV)

• Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $25.86

Mineral Resources (MIN)

• Retained at sell at Jarden; Price Target: $15.50

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $35.00

National Australia Bank (NAB)

• Retained at underweight at Jarden; Price Target: $29.00

Nufarm (NUF)

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $2.80

Nextdc (NXT)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $18.70

Orora (ORA)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $2.05 from $2.10

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $2.30

Origin Energy (ORG)

• Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $10.10 from $10.15

Orica (ORI)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $23.00

Predictive Discovery (PDI)

• Retained at speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.560

Propel Funeral Partners (PFP)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $5.50 from $6.30

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.66 from $6.65

Qantas Airways (QAN)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $11.50

REA Group (REA)

• Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $269.00

Reece (REH)

• Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $17.00

Regis Resources (RRL)

• Downgraded to hold from add at Morgans; Price Target: $5.24 from $4.80

Reliance Worldwide Corporation (RWC)

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $4.60

Rox Resources (RXL)

• Retained at speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.610

South32 (S32)

• Downgraded to neutral from buy at Citi; Price Target: $3.40 from $3.70

Sims (SGM)

• Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $13.00

Superloop (SLC)

• Retained at overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $2.60

Straker (STG)

• Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.520 from $0.370

Suncorp Group (SUN)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $21.65 from $21.35

Telstra Group (TLS)

• Downgraded to neutral from positive at E&P; Price Target: $4.70

• Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $4.90

• Retained at overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $4.70 from $4.60

• Upgraded to outperform from neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.28 from $3.93

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $5.00

• Retained at reduce at Morgans; Price Target: $4.00 from $3.35

• Downgraded to accumulate from buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $5.00 from $4.50

• Downgraded to neutral from buy at UBS; Price Target: $4.60 from $4.50

TPG Telecom (TPG)

• Retained at overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $5.10

Treasury Wine Estates (TWE)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $10.50

• Downgraded to neutral from positive at E&P; Price Target: $9.64 from $13.40

Vault Minerals (VAU)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.580 from $0.600

Vulcan Energy Resources (VUL)

• Retained at speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $10.00

Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC)

• Retained at underweight at Jarden; Price Target: $30.00

WEB Travel Group (WEB)

• Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $7.10

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $6.15

Whitehaven Coal (WHC)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $6.20

Wisetech Global (WTC)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $122.50 from $112.50

• Retained at outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $127.00 from $124.00

• Retained at positive at E&P; Price Target: $142.00 from $139.00

• Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $126.00 from $128.00

• Retained at neutral at Jarden; Price Target: $100.00 from $94.00

• Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $132.40 from $124.10

• Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $130.00 from $110.00

Scans