Evening Wrap: ASX 200 dips as gold and silver stocks tumble

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 11.5 points lower, down 0.13%.

Nothing goes up in a straight line forever. ASX Gold stocks (XGD) (-3.5%) are a high beta play on the physical… this just means that they go up and down more than the gold price tends to do. A double edged sword – great on the way up but terrible on the way down.

Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the S&P/ASX 200 in today's ChartWatch.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 11.5 points lower at 8,958.3, smack–bang at the mid-point of the session's miniscule range 0.22% from its session high and low 😴. At least in the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) advancers managed to beat decliners by a modest 156 to 126.

For the week, the XJO finished down 29.1 points or 0.32% lower, 0.76% from its intraweek high and 0.47% from its intraweek low.

Fund flows: Bruised bullion

Obviously, gold got belted today. There are a few narratives going around, cease fire in the Middle East is one, but it was probably just time. Nothing goes up in a straight line forever. ASX Gold stocks (XGD) (-3.5%) are a high beta play on the physical… this just means that they go up and down more than the gold price tends to do. A double edged sword – great on the way up but terrible on the way down.

S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold Sub-Index (XGD) chart (click here for full size image)

As you can see in the above chart, there was a smidge of a downward pointing shadow on today's candle = some buy the dip activity... But not enough for my liking. Net-net that’s still a supply-side dominated candle. But! One candle does not a bear market make! So, let’s all just calm down a little and do what we should always do in situations like this (i.e, the first real challenge to a massively consistent and enduring bull run): Look for confirmation of who’s in control of price:

1. Proof of demand-side control from here is all about buy the dip. It should happen quickly and it should be emphatic = long white-bodied candle and or long downward pointing shadows. The price should not close below the dynamic demand of the short term uptrend ribbon.

2. Proof of growing supply-side control is just the opposite – it’s all about sell the rally and or prolonged malaise in price = small candles unable to penetrate back into today’s defining supply-side candle, or more severe – long black-bodied candles and or long upward pointing shadows.

It’s that simple. We know what we’re looking for. Let the market tell us what it wants to do from here. Manage risk accordingly (and remain calm at all times! 😅). More analysis on gold and silver technicals in ChartWatch Markets.

S&P/ASX 200 Energy Sector Index (XEJ) chart (click here for full size image)

Hey it could be worse, you could have been long Energy (XEJ) (-0.73%) for the last 3 months instead! A slow motion train wreck in play here... but no surprise to anyone who's suffered through my Evening Wraps for any length of time!

Today's best blue chip gainers

Today's worst blue chip losers

ChartWatch

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

S&P/ASX 200 chart (click here for full size image)

Let’s keep this brief. 1. It’s Friday (=🍻), and 2. It’s been an exciting and exhausting week on the ASX (not sure if you’ve noticed, but there’s a rampaging bull market going in mining stocks 🚀).

You’d be clueless of that last fact if you only followed the XJO, or if your portfolio is devoid of precious metals, base metals, or critical minerals stocks. I actually think the candles on the XJO got smaller during the week – not that I could be bothered to check 🥱!

None of this week’s 5 candles were decisive, but as I mentioned in an earlier update – that doesn’t matter so much because it’s the decisive move from 8731 and the candles on 29-Sep, 2-Oct, and 3-Oct that created it, that matters.

As long as we don’t impinge too much on that rally, everything is fine here. We’re likely seeing a natural reaction to the 8991-9055, a modicum of trepidation perhaps, but the supply-side has very little in the tank. We're just waiting for the demand-side to find their next stimulus to take us higher – and to finally have a crack at 9055.

In the mean time, with the "everything else" intact here, i.e., demand-side control (short and long term uptrends, price action, broader predominance of demand-side candles) I see no reason to deviate from my FRP (Full Risk Position = My personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in Australian stocks is 100%).

Key levels: 8991-9055 is the key zone of supply, I will be very watchful for signs of excess supply in there. 8731 is the most important near-term point of demand, the price should not close below here if the demand-side is in control of the XJO’s price = ⚠️

Economy

Today

• There weren't any major economic data releases in our time zone today

Later this week

Friday

• 22:30 (Tentative due to shutdown) USA September Non-farm Payrolls

  • Non-Farm Employment Change: +52,000 forecast vs +22,000 in August

  • Average Hourly Earnings: +0.3% m/m forecast vs +0.3% m/m in August

  • Unemployment Rate: +4.3% forecast vs +4.3% in August

Saturday

• 01:00 USA October Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment (54.6 forecast vs 55.1 previous)

• 01:00 USA October Preliminary UoM Inflation Expectations (+4.7% p.a. in September)

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +27.3% Novonix (NVX) - No news, general strength across the broader Critical Minerals sector today, recently announced start of full production of high quality synthetic graphite, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and long term trend is transitioning from down to up 🔎📈

• +20.2% Focus Minerals (FML) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +16.2% L1 Group (L1G) - Continued positive response to 09-Oct Assets Under Management - September 2025, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and long term trend is transitioning from down to up 🔎📈

• +15.4% European Lithium (EUR) - Continued positive response to 09-Oct CRML Signs Another Offtake LOI Tanbreez Rare Earths Project, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +15.3% Syrah Resources (SYR) - No news, general strength across the broader Critical Minerals sector today.

• +13.3% Sunrise Energy Metals (SRL) - No news, today's move is consistent with recent volatility.

• +12.5% Lumos Diagnostics Holdings (LDX) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +12.4% American Rare Earths (ARR) - No news, general strength across the broader Critical Minerals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +12.0% Audinate Group (AD8) - No news 🤔.

• +11.1% Coronado Global Resources (CRN) - No news 🤔.

• +10.0% Ionic Rare Earths (IXR) - No news, general strength across the broader Critical Minerals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈

• +10.0% Trigg Minerals (TMG) - Nasdaq listing update, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +10.0% Cobalt Blue Holdings (COB) - Cobalt Blue Chairman to step down - Board refresh.

• +9.9% LTR Pharma (LTP) - No news 🤔.

• +9.7% Invictus Energy (IVZ) - No news 🤔.

• +9.2% Beforepay Group (B4P) - No news 🤔.

• +9.1% Dateline Resources (DTR) - Change of Director's Interest Notice (Anthony Ferguson +$67,500 options exercise) and 09-Oct Response to ASX Price Query, today's move is consistent with recent volatility.

• +9.1% Argosy Minerals (AGY) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +8.8% Lake Resources (LKE) - Loyalty Options Issue.

• +8.3% Polarx (PXX) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +6.9% Yandal Resources (YRL) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +6.9% Benz Mining Corp. (BNZ) - No news, today's move is consistent with recent volatility.

• +6.0% Renascor Resources (RNU) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and long term trend is transitioning from down to up, added to ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list today 🔎📈

• +5.9% Toubani Resources (TRE) - Investor Presentation, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

Trading lower

• -13.3% Painchek (PCK) - No news, pulled back in the wake of recent sharp rally.

• -12.5% Cyprium Metals (CYM) - No news, pulled back in the wake of recent sharp rally.

• -10.5% Haranga Resources (HAR) - No news, pulled back in the wake of recent sharp rally.

• -10.4% Pantoro Gold (PNR) - No news, general weakness across the broader Precious Metals sector today, pulled back in the wake of recent sharp rally.

• -9.4% Botanix Pharmaceuticals (BOT) - No news 🤔.

• -8.6% Chalice Mining (CHN) - No news, pulled back in the wake of recent sharp rally.

• -8.4% Antipa Minerals (AZY) - No news, general weakness across the broader Precious Metals sector today.

• -7.6% Electro Optic Systems Holdings (EOS) - No news, pulled back in the wake of recent sharp rally.

• -7.6% Orezone Gold Corp. (ORE) - No news, general weakness across the broader Precious Metals sector today, pulled back in the wake of recent sharp rally.

• -7.3% Alkane Resources (ALK) - September 2025 Quarterly Production Update, general weakness across the broader Precious Metals sector today, pulled back in the wake of recent sharp rally.

• -7.1% Dreadnought Resources (DRE) - Successful $18m Capital Raising. Finding More Gold, Faster, general weakness across the broader Precious Metals sector today, pulled back in the wake of recent sharp rally.

Broker Moves

Astral Resources NL (AAR)

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.45

Aussie Broadband (ABB)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $6.35 from $5.90

ANZ Group Holdings (ANZ)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $33.00 from $32.50

• Retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: $26.50

Bendigo and Adelaide Bank (BEN)

• Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $10.75 from $11.00

Bellevue Gold (BGL)

• Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $1.40 from $1.30

BHP Group (BHP)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $42.00

Boss Energy (BOE)

• Retained at speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $3.65

Bank of Queensland (BOQ)

• Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.90 from $6.00

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $6.70

Beach Energy (BPT)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $1.20

CAR Group (CAR)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $42.55

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA)

• Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $106.00

COG Financial Services (COG)

• Downgraded to hold from accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $2.40 from $2.04

Computershare (CPU)

• Upgraded to neutral from underweight at JPMorgan; Price Target: $36.50 from $37.00

Capstone Copper Corp. (CSC)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $11.00

• Downgraded to accumulate from buy at Morgans; Price Target: $16.00 from $12.10

Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure (DBI)

• Initiated at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.91

Develop Global (DVP)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $5.40 from $5.10

Elders (ELD)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $9.45

• Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $8.15 from $8.22

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $8.45 from $8.60

• Retained at outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $8.05 from $7.90

• Retained at hold at Jefferies; Price Target: $7.80 from $7.20

• Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $8.50 from $8.45

Evolution Mining (EVN)

• Retained at underperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $7.10 from $6.50

Fortescue (FMG)

• Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $16.50

Goodman Group (GMG)

• Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $33.70 from $32.50

Gentrack Group (GTK)

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $11.80

Guzman Y Gomez (GYG)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $31.20

• Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $32.60 from $30.60

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $27.00 from $26.50

James Hardie Industries Plc (JHX)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $37.50 from $36.00

MA Financial Group (MAF)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $10.55

Mineral Resources (MIN)

• Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $35.00

Macquarie Group (MQG)

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $226.00

National Australia Bank (NAB)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $38.00 from $37.50

Northern Star Resources (NST)

• Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $21.00

NRW Holdings (NWH)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $5.15 from $4.50

Netwealth Group (NWL)

• Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $30.00 from $34.00

• Upgraded to buy from hold at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $36.30 from $36.25

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $35.50

• Upgraded to positive from neutral at E&P; Price Target: $37.40 from $37.30

• Retained at neutral at JPMorgan; Price Target: $32.50 from $34.00

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $33.75 from $33.85

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $41.50

• Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $32.00

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $33.50

• Upgraded to buy from hold at Unified Capital Partners; Price Target: $37.30 from $35.70

Origin Energy (ORG)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $13.90

REA Group (REA)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $279.25

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $255.00

Rio Tinto (RIO)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $115.00

Ramelius Resources (RMS)

• Downgraded to underperform from sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $2.80 from $2.70

Regis Resources (RRL)

• Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $6.50 from $6.00

South32 (S32)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.80

St Barbara (SBM)

• Upgraded to outperform from sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $0.95 from $0.75

Superloop (SLC)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.65 from $3.60

Santana Minerals (SMI)

• Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $0.95 from $0.90

Santos (STO)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $8.20 from $8.30

Southern Cross Gold Consolidated (SX2)

• Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $6.10 from $6.20

Syrah Resources (SYR)

• Upgraded to outperform from neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.70 from $0.30

Transurban Group (TCL)

• Upgraded to hold from trim at Morgans; Price Target: $13.39 from $12.88

Technology One (TNE)

• Upgraded to buy from overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $44.82

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $44.50 from $42.40

Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC)

• Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $31.50 from $31.00

Woodside Energy Group (WDS)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $22.50 from $22.70

Westgold Resources (WGX)

• Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $5.80 from $4.80

Whitehaven Coal (WHC)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $7.25

Scans