ASX 200 Live Today - Friday, 10th October

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Friday, October 10. We’re excited to trial this new format. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. Today's live blog will wrap up around 2:00 pm AEST. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.

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ASX 200 flat, slightly lower for the week

[1:55 pm] The ASX 200 is currently down 0.11%, recovering from session lows of 0.35%, in what has been a fairly quiet session outside of a pullback in the Materials Index. Materials fell 1.5% after rallying as much as 12% since 19 September, while the Tech Index showed some strength, bouncing off a near one-month low on selective gains from names like Life360 (+3.0%), Codan (+2.1%) and Energy One (+4.6%), all of which smashed FY25 earnings expectations.

Overall, it's fascinating watching how the whole rare earth, graphite and lithium trade is playing out,. Some really violent, knee-jerk moves. In hindsight, China's targeting of graphite, a commodity where it holds a massive foothold, seem unsurprising.

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What a rally for graphite

[1:08 pm] A really violent move for graphite, with names like Black Rock (BKT), Syrah (SYR) and Sarytogan (SGA) up 28.5%, 18.0% and 13.6% respectively.

Overnight, China announced further export controls on lithium and other battery metals, including "controlled anode materials include artificial and mixed graphite, along with large-scale granulation, graphitisation, coating, and CVD equipment and processes."

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Gold stocks bounce

[1:04 pm] Still a sea of red for gold miners, though most have bounced strongly off session lows.

For example, Northern Star dipped as much as 7.4% in early trade, now down just 2.5%.

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Analysts take on Elders

[12:05 pm] Elders shares briefly dipped as much as 13% on Thursday, before staging a massive intraday rally to close just 1.0% lower.

The selloff was largely due to an earnings update, which guided to FY26 underlying EBIT of $142-146 million vs. $161.7 million consensus, a 10.9% miss at the midpoint. In parallel with the trading update, the company also received ACCC approval for its acquisition of Delta Agribusiness. Here's what analysts are thinking after the update/regulatory approval:

• Morgans raised target to $8.50, maintains Buy. FY25 guidance disappointed due to late seasonal break. ACCC approval removes overhang on Delta acquisition. Delta synergies seen as conservative with timing likely accelerated. FY26 expected to benefit from seasonal and pricing recovery.

• Bell Potter target remains $9.45, maintains Buy. Delta deal seen as earnings accretive despite timing shift. FY25 miss driven by weaker crop protection margins. Early FY26 indicators point to strong rebound. Positive on EPS uplift from Delta integration and ag tailwinds. Valuation seen as failing to reflect medium-term growth.

• Canaccord Genuity lowered target to $8.15, maintains Buy. EBIT miss largely isolated to Retail crop protection. Recent price and demand trends in agchem encouraging. ACCC clearance boosts confidence in acquisition synergies. Structural and cyclical growth drivers seen aligning in FY26. Valuation uplift attributed to reduced regulatory uncertainty.

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Centaurus granted mining lease

[11:55 am] Centaurus has received a Mining Lease for its flagship Jaguar Nickel Sulphide Project in Northern Brazil.

"The formal grant of the Mining Lease is the last of the key approvals required to support a Final Investment Decision (FID), with the grant providing the ability to mine ore from the Project’s deposits for commercial purposes," the company said in a statement.

Jaguar is a massive project, with a mineral resource of 1.2 million tonnes of nickel (138.2Mt at 0.87% Ni) and first quarter AISC of US$4.43/lb.

Nickel hasn't really been a part of the recent critical metal rally, as prices continue to hover around five-year lows of US$15,400 a tonne. Prices have struggled due to an influx of supply from Indonesia.

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Top ASX 200 gainers and losers in early trade

[10:39 am] Seeing a few risk-oriented names like TPW, PNI and TNE top the leaderboards in early trade. Netwealth's Q1 trading update also receiving some positive analyst takeaways and target price hikes. Meanwhile, nine of the ten worst performing large caps are all ... gold miners.

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ASX 200 slips, Miners pull back

[10:35 am] The ASX 200 is currently down 0.32%, trading around session lows as the Materials sector logs its first meaningful pullback since early September.

The S&P/ASX 200 Materials Index rallied as much as 12% between 19 September and 9 October, marking a fresh all-time high on Thursday. It's now down 1.66%.

ASX 200 sector performance (Source: Market Index)

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Graphite stocks surge

[10:00 am] Surprise surprise, graphite stocks have opened sharply higher, with Syrah Resources up 13.8%. The stock is now up over 50% in the last seven sessions.

Things are getting very heated for critical metals.

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Analysts take on Netwealth

[9:55 am] Netwealth reported its first-quarter update on Thursday, with net flows of $4.1 billion and record funds under administration of $120.8 billion. Both figures were slightly ahead of market expectations. The stock finished the session up 0.75%.

Here's what analysts are thinking after the update:

• RBC Capital Markets retained Sector Perform, target $32.00. Net inflows modestly impacted by pension withdrawals. Strong adviser engagement supporting new account growth. Management confirmed First Guardian as a fraud incident.

• JPMorgan lowered target to $32.50, maintains Neutral. Net flows exceeded expectations. Higher cash balances supportive. Pension outflows stable. First Guardian regulatory risks remain key overhang.

• Canaccord Genuity upgraded to Buy, target $36.30. Record net flows maintained guidance trajectory. Managed Account momentum boosting platform flows. Valuation attractive. Some downside risk from First Guardian but positive long-term outlook.

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Absolute scenes at Findi

[9:50 am] Shares in payments and digital banking solutions company Findi dipped 22% on Thursday after a former Vice Chairman posted a scathing comment on Hotcopper.

He alleges board conflicts and pressure in 2024 that led to his departure, citing disagreements over management agreements, shareholder arrangements, and the board’s desire to strip profits. The post said the company is facing a cash flow crisis, with delays in paying salaries and lost or relinquished contracts to avoid IPO dilution.

Findi refutes the post and confirms it will be taking legal action.

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Pacific Smiles to be taken out

[9:40 am] Genesis Bidco has made an off-market takeover bid to acquire the remaining stake in Pacific Smiles, priced at $2.20 per share or a 37.5% premium to its last close (1.60%).

Genesis Bidco currently has voting power of 89.27% in Pacific Smiles and the board has unanimously recommended shareholders to accept the offer.

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Inghams reaffirms FY26 outlook

[9:35 am] Inghams reaffirmed its FY26 outlook in its annual report. For context, the stock was smashed 20% on its FY25 results (22 Aug), where pretty much everything missed market expectations.

• Revenue down 1.5% to $3.15bn vs. $3.19bn ests (1.3% miss)

• Underlying EBITDA (pre AASB 16) flat at $236.4m vs. $242.1m ests (2.4% miss)

• Underlying NPAT (pre AASB 16) down 11.6% to $95.2m vs. $103.4m ests (7.9% miss)

• Full-year dividend down 5% to 19 cps vs. UBS ests of 20.4 cps (6.9% miss)

Looking ahead, Inghams guided to FY26 underlying EBITDA (pre AASB 16) of $215-230m and capex between $80-100m. UBS was expecting EBITDA of $258m.

Key comment: "While lost Woolworths volumes in Australia were substantially replaced on a full-year basis, the financial results were impacted by a shift to a lower-margin mix, weaker wholesale pricing and softer overall retail demand, all of which contributed to a meaningful deterioration in 4Q25 earnings."

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GQG reports slight decline in FUM

[9:28 am] GQG's monthly funds under management update reported $167.2 billion in total FUM as at 30 September, down 0.2% from the prior month.

"Our sustained defensive positioning in our investment strategies led to relative underperformance in September and the third quarter. We continue to review and reevaluate our positioning daily, and we see the data consistently indicating both extended valuations in important parts of the market and an uncertain macro environment. As stewards of capital, we continue to believe that our portfolios are well-positioned to help protect client assets in the event of significant volatility," the company said in its update.

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Arafura's upsized SPP

[9:25 am] Arafura Rare Earths announced the results of its share purchase plan, which provided eligible shareholders the opportunity to apply for up to $30,000 of new shares at an issue price of 19 cents (vs. last close of 31 cents).

The SPP was targeting to raise $5 million and received applications totalling $9.8 million. Clearly, some massive demand for rare earths (and also free money considering the SPP closed on Friday, 3 October when the stock was trading at 21.5 cents).

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Amcor CFO exit

[9:15 am] Amcor CFO Michael Casamento announced his intentions to leave the company, with Stephen Scherger appointed as Executive VP and CFO, effective 10 November, 2025. Scherger most recently served as the EVP and CFO of the graphic packaging business.

Casamento decided to return home to Australia to be closer to his family, and will leave the company as a result. He will remain as an advisor to the company until 30 June, 2026.

In the same announcement, Amcor reaffirmed its FY26 guidance, including adjusted EPS of 80-83 cents, representing 12-17% constant currency growth.

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Lithium and graphite in the spotlight

[9:10] China will imposed export controls on high-performance lithium-ion batteries, key cathode and anode materials, and related manufacturing equipment and technologies from 8 November 2025.

The measures will target the following items:

• Rechargeable Li-ion battery cells and packs with energy density >300Wh/kg and their production technologies, potentially impacting high-performance EV batteries and most solid-state batteries.

• Controlled cathode materials include high-spec LFP, lithium-rich manganese compounds, and associated kilns, mixers, and mills.

• Controlled anode materials include artificial and mixed graphite, along with large-scale granulation, graphitisation, coating, and CVD equipment and processes.

Lots of US-listed graphite names rallied 10-15% overnight. Could see some more strength for local names like SYR, TLG, RNU etc.

We're really starting to see China weaponise its dominance in critical metals. This follows a similar announcement on Thursday (around 12 pm AEDT) covering rare earths. A re-post from what we covered:

To safeguard national security and interests, and in accordance with China’s Export Control Law and Dual-Use Items Export Control Regulations, the State Council has approved the following export control measures:

• Exports to foreign military users or entities on China’s control lists will generally not be approved.

• Shipments linked to weapons, terrorism, or military purposes will also be denied.

• Exports for advanced semiconductor and AI development (e.g., 14nm chips, 256-layer memory) will be reviewed case by case.

• Humanitarian exports such as for medical emergencies or disaster relief are exempt but must be reported within 10 business days.

• Foreign exporters must apply via MOFCOM’s online system and provide compliance documentation when transferring controlled items.

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Gold prices back below US$4,000

[9:02 am] Gold prices dipped 1.6% overnight to US$3,976, though bounce off intraday lows of -2.37%. This marks the first one-day fall of more than 1% since the parabolic move from US$3,300 in late August to US$4,000.

The pullback drove an outsized move for gold equities, with the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) down 4.4% overnight.

Gold daily price chart (Source: TradingView)

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PepsiCo rallies on earnings beat

[8:58 am] PepsiCo kicked off US earnings season, with the stock up 4.2% on better-than-feared Q3 earnings.

• Revenue up 3% year-on-year to $24.94bn vs. $23.86bn ests (0.3% beat)

• Core EPS down 2% to $2.29 vs. $2.27 ests (0.8% beat)

• Reaffirmed full-year guidance of low single digit organic growth and flat core EPS growth

Interesting to see Pepsi log its 13th consecutive quarter of volume declines, with revenue growth pretty much entirely driven by higher prices.

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China's Golden Week holiday spending dips

[8:52 am] Average spending per trip during China’s eight-day Golden Week fell 0.55% year-on-year to 911 yuan (US$114), marking the lowest level since 2022, despite a record 888 million trips made across the country, according to Reuters.

Tourism revenue rose 15% to 809 billion yuan, indicating higher travel volume but weaker per-capita spending as consumers remain cautious despite a recent equity market rally.

Analysts from Citi and Nomura said consumer sentiment remains muted, with little evidence of a wealth effect from the stock surge, as concerns over property weakness, job security and economic uncertainty persist.

Source: Reuters

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22 US states in recession, says Moody's

[8:51 am] Mark Zandi of Moody’s Analytics warns the US economy is on the brink of recession, with 22 states and Washington, DC already showing persistent weakness and job losses, while another 13 are stagnating.

He attributes the slowdown to government policy, citing Trump-era tariffs disrupting supply chains and expansion plans, as well as federal job cuts linked to the Department of Government Efficiency, which have hit the D.C. region hardest.

California and New York are seen as critical swing states for the national outlook, with a California recession now considered plausible by UCLA Anderson economists.

Source: Moody's Analytics, Marketwatch

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Another solid US IPO

[8:47 am] Alliance Laundry raised US$826.3 million in an IPO upsized by 10% and priced at the top of its range. The stock rallied 13% on debut to $24.82, giving it a market cap of about US$4.9 billion.

The deal was more than 11 times oversubscribed, with the top 10 institutional investors taking over 55% of shares. Anchor investors included Capital International and Kayne Anderson Rudnick, each committing up to US$100 million.

Alliance reported US$836.8 million in revenue and US$48.3 million net income for the six months to June 30. It has grown revenue at a 9.5% CAGR since 2010 and maintains ~25% adjusted EBITDA margins.

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Good morning!

[8:37 am] ASX 200 futures are down 38 pts (-0.42%) as of 8:30 am AEST.

The overnight session in a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks finished broadly lower in a relatively uneventful session

• US Q3 earnings season kicked off with better-than-expected numbers from Pepsi and Delta Airlines

• Busy session for commodities: China imposed export controls on rare earths and lithium, copper prices continued to climb on supply disruptions and gold flagged a pullback, now below US$4,000

If you’re new to the blog – catch up quick via today’s Morning Wrap.