Evening Wrap: ASX 200 closes out first winning week in five as Coles and Woolworths dodge ACCC bullet

A relatively quiet end to what was an otherwise productive week for Aussie stocks. For the week, the XJO finished up 142 points or 1.83% higher, breaking a 4-week losing streak and logging its first weekly gain since the current correction began on Valentine’s Day.

Supermarket operators Woolworths Group (WOW) (+6.2%) and Coles Group (COL) (+4.8%) drove a monster 3.9% gain in the Consumer Staples (XSJ) sector, as they came out with a clean bill of health following the ACCC's inquiry into supermarket price gouging.

Elsewhere, a modest pullback in gold and silver prices overnight, and into Asian trade today, was responsible for the previously high-flying Gold (XGD) sub-index (-0.70%) underperforming, and a big drop in also previously high-flying Pro Medicus (PME) (-6.5%) dealt a hefty blow to the Health Care (XHJ) (-0.72%) sector.

Click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key upcoming economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Also, I have detailed technical analysis on and in today's ChartWatch.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 13.2 points higher at 7,932.1, roughly in the middle of its trading range – 0.34% from its session low and 0.38% from its high. As if to reflect this indecision, in the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO), advancers only narrowly beat decliners by 135 to 133.

For the week, the XJO finished up 142 points or 1.83% higher, 2.57% from its intraweek low and 0.59% from its intraweek high 🥳. It broke a 4-week losing streak and is the first weekly gain since the current correction began on Valentine’s Day.

Supermarket operators Woolworths Group (ASX: WOW) (+6.2%) and Coles Group (ASX: COL) (+4.8%) drove a monster 3.9% gain in Consumer Staples (XSJ), as the ACCC came out of its inquiry into price gouging within the sector sucking its thumb 🤦! The love also spread to third-wheel Metcash (ASX: MTS) (+3.6%), but even lowly Endeavour Group (ASX: EDV) (+2.0%) also got a boost.

The rest were neither here nor there, logging small gains or small losses for the session as investors probably chose to tread lightly into the weekend.

A modest pullback in gold and silver prices overnight, and into Asian trade today, was responsible for the previously high-flying Gold (XGD) sub-index (-0.70%) underperforming. Elsewhere, the continuing high-PE exodus dealt previously also previously high-flying Pro Medicus (ASX: PME) (-6.5%) another hefty blow, and this dragged on Health Care (XHJ) (-0.72%).

ChartWatch

NASDAQ Composite Index

Seems to be a bit of supply nagging away just below those trend ribbons...🧐 (click here for full size image)

Another upward pointing shadow = another promising rally met with determined supply. It's not just the supply that keeps knocking those higher prices (tantalisingly close to the trend ribbons) that concerns me, it's also the lack of commitment from the demand-side to see them off – to earn the high candle close.

So, whilst we have avoided a really nasty supply-side showing for a few candles now, it’s hard not to be worried that the next one isn’t just around the corner.

I want to see an emphatic demand-side candle, either a long downward pointing shadow reaching into 17238 and confirming it as a solid barrier of excess demand – or a long white-bodied candle from here – closing at its high deep within the trend ribbons.

If either were to occur on above average volume it would add weight to such a move, suggesting that plenty of supply was overcome by plenty of motivated demand (note the contracting volume recently – the demand-supply environment is withdrawing as uncertainty is high – they don’t want to commit!).

The opposite of the above, a long upward pointing shadow reaching into the trend ribbons and confirming them as an impenetrable barrier of excess supply – or a long black-bodied candle with a low close and smashing through 17238 – well that’s lights out for the bulls. 😱

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

The rally needs to start somewhere…🤞 (click here for full size image)

Not a great deal to update you on here, but I will note we closed out a Friday with a gain – a not to be underestimated feat during a correction. We also closed it out with a solid weekly gain.

ASX 200 weekly chart (this week’s bounce wasn’t far off the long term uptrend ribbon) (click here for full size image)

The rally needs to start somewhere…🤞

And, as discussed in yesterday’s wrap, the rising troughs of 7733 and 7808 and the decent cluster of demand-side candles we’ve logged in the process are promising.

So much more work needs to be done, however, to confirm the return to demand-side control – namely recapturing the short and long term trend ribbons. Today’s upward pointing shadow perhaps is an early warning sign of the massive wall of supply I expect we’re going to encounter there.

Candle by candle, trough by trough…it will be a battle and it will take time. Until we get there, personally (you can do anything you like) I continue to operate at my most conservative risk-cap setting.

I am rarely all in, nor am I never all out (even in the worst bear market there are still opportunities both long and short).

I am also not in the business of picking top and of picking bottoms – simply of reducing risk when the technicals suggest a lack of a clear uptrend, and then adding back risk as I am confident a new uptrend is emerging. The technicals presently suggest the former, not the latter...⏳

Iron Ore 62% (Front month, back-adjusted) SGX

Back to supply-side control 📉 (click here for full size image)

The last time we covered was in ChartWatch in the Evening Wrap on 27 February.

In that update, we noted the transition from demand-side control of the short term iron ore price to equilibrium. In the near-month that has passed, the trends, price action, and candles all now point to supply-side control – and growing supply-side control too.

Here’s why I think that:

The short term downtrend ribbon appears to be acting as a zone of dynamic supply.

The price has cracked below the long term trend ribbon (transitioned from neutral / amber to down / dark pink just yesterday).

The price action is falling peaks and falling troughs (indicating supply reinforcement and demand removal)

The candles are predominantly supply-side in nature (i.e. black-bodied and or those with upward pointing shadows).

98.15 is the closest point of demand, and a close below it would likely facilitate the probing of the next-lower zone of demand at 93.50-94.70.

Until the iron ore price closes above the trend ribbons – but really for good measure above 104.15 – I suggest the supply-side remains in control.

Still, one mustn’t get too excited either way, as iron ore appears to be trading in a broad trading range defined by 93.50-94.70 (demand) and 111.30-112.60 (supply).

Economy

Today

• There weren't any major data releases in our time zone today

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

+10.0% Metals X (MLX) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

+9.4% Jupiter Mines (JMS) - No news...No 1: Tin, No 2: Manganese 🤔.

+8.1% Predictive Discovery (PDI) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

+7.6% Mader Group (MAD) - No news 🤔.

+7.1% CZR Resources (CZR) - Non-Binding, Indicative and Conditional Offer Robe River JV.

+6.7% Boss Energy (BOE) - Becoming a substantial holder, general strength across the broader Uranium sector today, suggest some short covering at play here, also continuing rally post Kazatomprom news we discussed here yesterday.

+6.6% Vulcan Energy Resources (VUL) - No news 🤔, ditto probably some shorts getting put to the sword here…interesting move on the chart - now back above long term trend ribbon.

+6.5% Seven West Media (SWM) - No news 🤔.

+6.3% Woolworths Group (WOW) - Response to ACCC Supermarket Inquiry final report.

+5.9% Titomic (TTT) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

+5.3% EBR Systems (EBR) - Amendment to Bylaws of EBR Systems, Inc., rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

+4.8% Coles Group (COL) - Ditto WOW, bounced perfectly from long term uptrend ribbon! 🔎📈

+4.8% Amplitude Energy (AEL) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈

+4.6% Bannerman Energy (BMN) - Change in substantial holding, general strength across the broader Uranium sector today, ditto BOE, ditto uranium.

Trading lower

• -13.0% Coronado Global Resources (CRN) - N, general weakness across the broader Coal sector today on sharply lower coking coal and thermal coal prices yesterday (a trainwreck of trends in both coal charts), and also a trainwreck in this stock's chart (40 times ChartWatch ASX Scans Feature Downtrend) - so I say once again...fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, one of the most Featured (highest conviction) stocks in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -12.3% Findi (FND) - FND Capital Raising Presentation.

• -9.5% Silver Mines (SVL) - No news, general weakness across the broader Silver sector today, silver price a tough lower overnight….

• -6.7% Ora Banda Mining (OBM) - Change in substantial holding and Becoming a substantial holder, (block trade between UBS and Hawke's Point Holdings - the latter cutting stake from 31.41% to 26.22%).

• -6.5% Pro Medicus (PME) - No news, victim of high-PE exodus…fall is consistent with prevailing short term downtrend and falling peaks and falling troughs 🔎📉

• -6.3% Appen (APX) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short term downtrend and long term trend is transitioning from up to down, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -6.3% Webjet (WJL) - Continued negative response to 19-Mar N, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -5.7% Liontown Resources (LTR) - No news, general weakness across the broader Lithium sector today, lithium price down sharply in China yesterday, modestly today…downgraded to sell from hold at Canaccord Genuity and price target to $0.650 from $0.700, repelled perfectly from long term downtrend ribbon! 🔎📉

• -5.4% Imugene (IMU) - No news19-Mar Azer-cel Granted FDA Fast Track Designation in Blood Cancer, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -5.1% Pilbara Minerals (PLS) - No news, ditto LTR, ditto lithium, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -4.1% Nuix (NXL) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -4.0% Johns Lyng Group (JLG) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -4.0% IDP Education (IEL) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -4.0% Paladin Energy (PDN) - Unseasonal rains impact the Langer Heinrich Mine, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

Broker Moves

• Acrow (ACF)

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $1.300

• AGL Energy (AGL)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $12.29

• Ampol (ALD)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $28.00 from $29.45

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $31.00

• APA Group (APA)

  • Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $8.28

• APM Human Services International (APM)

  • Initiated at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.630

• Aurizon (AZJ)

  • Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $3.10

• Betmakers Technology Group (BET)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.200 from $0.750

• Brickworks (BKW)

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $26.00 from $26.90

  • Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $26.50 from $25.00

  • Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $30.00 from $31.00

• Boss Energy (BOE)

  • Retained at buy at Euroz Hartleys; Price Target: $4.50

• Coles Group (COL)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $21.00

• CSL (CSL)

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $313.00

• Cleanaway Waste Management (CWY)

  • Upgraded to buy from overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $3.10 from $3.05

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $3.18

  • Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $3.00 from $2.90

• Core Lithium (CXO)

  • Retained at hold at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.080 from $0.110

• Delta Lithium (DLI)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.350 from $0.500

• Findi (FND)

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $11.05 from $9.48

• Galan Lithium (GLN)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.180 from $0.750

• IGO (IGO)

  • Retained at sell at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $3.50 from $4.40

• Ioneer (INR)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.250 from $0.270

• Iperionx (IPX)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $6.65

• Laramide Resources (LAM)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $1.250

• Liontown Resources (LTR)

  • Downgraded to sell from hold at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.650 from $0.700

• Nanosonics (NAN)

  • Upgraded to buy from hold at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $5.74 from $4.47

  • Downgraded to underweight from neutral at JP Morgan; Price Target: $4.00 from $3.90

  • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $5.50 from $4.50

  • Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $4.55

• New World Resources (NWC)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.120

• NRW (NWH)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $3.85

• Origin Energy (ORG)

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $9.94

• Paladin Energy (PDN)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $14.80

• Peninsula Energy (PEN)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $2.18

• Pilbara Minerals (PLS)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $2.70 from $3.50

• Patriot Battery Metals (PMT)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.550 from $0.900

• Premier Investments (PMV)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $26.00

• Scentre Group (SCG)

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $4.34

• Steadfast Group (SDF)

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $6.80

• Sigma Healthcare (SIG)

  • Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.70

• TPG Telecom (TPG)

  • Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $5.25

• Viva Energy Group (VEA)

  • Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $2.28

• Vulcan Energy Resources (VUL)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $10.00 from $11.75

• Wildcat Resources (WC8)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.500 from $0.600

• Webjet (WJL)

  • Upgraded to outperform from hold at CLSA; Price Target: $1.000

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $1.590 from $1.320

• Woolworths Group (WOW)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $33.00

• Winsome Resources (WR1)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $1.200 from $1.750

Scans