Evening Wrap: ASX 200 blows past 8,800 as major resources and energy stocks help secure fresh record close

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 73.3 points higher, up 0.84%.

The Australian stock market made it two record breaking days in a row, shrugging off dour overnight leads from the US to close above 8,800 for the fist time 🚀.

Precious metals stocks led the way again – for the third session running – as the prices of both gold and silver firmed (silver stocks are again in particular strong demand).

Most sectors benefited from today's record breaking heroics, though, with solid gains across Resources and Energy, Property, Technology, and Financials shares.

To make sense of all the above, I have detailed technical analysis on the Nasdaq Composite, S&P/ASX 200, and Silver in today's ChartWatch.

Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 73.3 points higher at 8,843.7, 0.84% from its session low and just 0.06% from its high. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) advancers beat decliners by an emphatic margin for the second day running – 223 to 56.

Why yet another volatile session in the US overnight (remember volatility = up and down!)? The President's calling 📞👨‍💼!

Thing's were going pretty well in early morning in New York trade on Tuesday until President Trump called into CNBC's Squawk Box to discuss US labor market statistics, trade policy, and the appointment of a new Federal Reserve Chairman.

These are (arguably) the key items that spooked markets during that call:

• “We’re going to be announcing [tariffs] on semiconductors and chips… because we want them made in the United States”

• “We’ll be an initially putting a small tariff on pharmaceuticals, but one year-in one and a half years maximum, it’s going to 150% and then it’s going to go to 250% because we want pharmaceuticals made in our country”

• “India has not been a good trading partner…so we settled on 25%, but I think we’re going to raise that very substantially over the next 24-hours [because they’re buying Russian oil]”

• “We’re getting very close to a deal [with China]… when [the tariff rate] was up to 145%, meaning we were doing zero business with China, China was collapsing… China is very reliant on the United States… I think we’ll make a good deal, it’s not imperative, but I think we’re going to make a good deal…”

Some of the stuff the market already had a pretty good idea of, and some it was news... and not ideal news in terms of staying invested: Volatile policy (for better or worse), rapidly evolving environment (makes it hard to price risk).

Elsewhere, probably the other key datapoint that made the market flinch was a rather "stagflationary" looking Institute of Supply Managers (ISM) Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI). It showed that the US services sector – once a post-COVID powerhouse – continued to slow last month. The reading of 50.1 was just over the 50.0 that delineates growth from contraction, yet the "prices paid" category rose 2.4 points to 69.9 – a 30-month high.

And yet...

None of that really mattered today. Which is just fine with us!

I present the above information merely to provide some context on this growing divide between the performance of US and local shares. Whether it's reconciled, i.e., they improve to match our success... or we decline to match their lack of it (!!!) – is beyond my talents to decipher or predict! But it's got to play on your mind a little though, right? 🤔

If we just focus on what happened today, and perhaps that's exactly what we should do, it was as good as you can get for a second day in a row now. Just about everything went up. The Gold Sub-sector (XGD) (+3.3%) was the best, but more broadly, Resources (XJR) (+1.2%) and Energy (XEJ) (+1.3%) made a welcome and timely comeback.

Consumer Discretionary (XDJ) (+1.2%), Property (XPJ) (+0.9%), Technology (XIJ) (+0.8%), and Financials (XFJ) (+0.8%) were pretty good to. A perfect storm of index points you might say. Happy days 🙌.

Before I let you go today, just a little heads up on a potential risk event tonight in the US: The 10-year T-bond auction. This article explains why its important and how to read it. The market's wobble in March-April occurred largely because of the US bond market's meltdown, so this datapoint – and the 30's auction on Friday morning – will tell us if things are continuing to return to normal... or not...

Today's best blue chip gainers:

Today's worst blue chip losers:

ChartWatch

NASDAQ Composite Index

An interesting chart (click here for full size image)

Why is it that for the entire month I was away, every day on the Comp was a "gentle ebb higher", compared to since I've been back - which has been all "crazy zebra"!? 🦓 (black 🕯️ white 🕯️ black 🕯️ white 🕯️!)

There have been some mitigating circumstances with respect to US trade policy on the fly, some less-than-ideal economic datapoints, and the sacking of officials that may or may not have been responsible for them... but it is clear that volatility is up on the Comp – and that means a tougher job for trend followers.

Last night's supply-side candle (black-bodied) shows there remains at least some nagging supply in the system – as per my hunch yesterday that "Thursday and Friday weren’t merely aberrations – the supply that created them still has some ammunition".

I propose the last point of demand at 20560 now sharpens in focus. It's coincidence with the bottom of the short term uptrend ribbon (~20530) sets a line in the sand for the short term uptrend – i.e., close below it and that trend is over.

21458 is the dominant point of supply. The candles that created it (Thursday and Friday), are so severe, that it implies there will be credible excess supply to contend with as we approach that peak.

The demand-side must consume that supply, it's that simple, but it will take a decent whack of demand to do so. If they can do it, then it will show just how powerful this bull market is. In this case, you'll see solid demand-side candles from here – so white-bodied and downward pointing shadows.

On the other hand, if we see more candles like Tuesday's, then we've got problems... ⚠️ My tip...🤔 It will not be plain sailing!

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

An interesting chart (click here for full size image)

I'm very glad I didn't finish that sentence yesterday. Perhaps I shouldn't even finish this one? 🤔

Let me just add one more then – this is still a great looking chart – a picture of excess demand... In theory, this means a greater probability of continued gains. MOTN stuff... In reality, whatever will be, will be!

Okay, a few more: 8777 and really, all the way down to 8630 should now act as a zone of demand. We remain a version of demand-side control as long as we're above that zone. Points of supply? There are none!

Silver Futures (Front month, back-adjusted) COMEX

An interesting chart (click here for full size image)

The last time we covered silver was in ChartWatch in the Evening Wrap on 18 June.

In that update, I noted it was “one of my favourite charts” at the time. It did kick on a bit, to ultimately see its shadow in the face of the 40 psychological round number, and it’s now roughly back / a little higher than that last update.

It’s not unusual to see a major psychological level require a couple or even a few goes to clear. Each time, the demand-side removes a little more of the supply there until – it’s gone. Assuming there’s still enough motivated demand on the market at that time, prices are usually clear to move substantially higher from then.

It might be the case here, but the pullback from 40, or more specifically, the 39.91 point of supply, is steeper / more severe than I’d like. It signals some credible – and probably more than just 40 round number selling is at play in the system.

But the short term trend appears to be resuming (I note the close back above short term trend ribbon Tuesday), and there are some decent demand-side candles building off 36.28. So, I suggest, we’ll see some sort of retest of 39.91.

The question is how successful will it be? The big issue is the major supply candle of 25-Jul. You’ll often find supply reappears within the range of a previous major supply / reversal candle (think about the supply that was required to cause it in the first place, and then other supply that might to front run the resumption of this supply). So, we’ll wait and see what candles we get in there – confirmation of supply candles – or confirmation of demand candles.

In the meantime, there’s still reason to be optimistic here. The long term uptrend is very much intact and the key 35.35 point of demand has held. Until we see the candles from approx. 38.50 up, note that a close below 36.28 would seal a transition to an equilibrium market at best.

Economy

Today

• There weren't any major economic data releases in our time zone today

Later this week

Thursday

• 03:01 USA 10-year Bond Yield (4.36% at 2.6x bid-to-cover in July)

• 21:00 UK Bank of England (BOE) Monetary Policy Statement and Official Cash Rate (-0.25% to 4.0% forecast)

Friday

• 03:01 USA 30-year Bond Yield (4.89% at 2.4x bid-to-cover in July)

Saturday

• 11:30 CHN Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) July

  • CPI: -0.1% p.a. forecast vs +0.1% p.a. in June

  • PPI: -3.2% p.a. forecast vs -3.6% p.a. previous

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +33.0% Lindian Resources (LIN) – Strategic partnership with Iluka for funding and offtake.

• +27.3% Infomedia (IFM) – Infomedia enters scheme implementation agreement with TPG.

• +21.7% Waratah Minerals (WTM) – Continued positive response to 04-Aug Multiple zones of high-grade gold extend Spur Gold Corridor, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +17.9% 4DMEDICAL (4DX) – Continued positive response to 31-Jul 4DMedical secures $10m strategic investment from Pro Medicus, closed back above long term downtrend ribbon 🧐.

• +14.5% Platinum Asset Management (PTM) – No news, general strength across the broader Asset Management sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and long term trend is transitioning from down to up 🔎📈

• +11.7% IDP Education (IEL) – No news, second big day up…

• +11.0% The Star Entertainment Group (SGR) – Notification of substantial shareholding - JPMorgan.

• +9.5% Pinnacle Investment Management Group (PNI) – No news, general strength across the broader Asset Management sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +9.0% Andean Silver (ASL) – No news, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈

• +8.9% St Barbara (SBM) – No news, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today.

• +8.9% Catalyst Metals (CYL) – No news, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +8.3% Sun Silver (SS1) – No news, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today.

• +8.3% Lumos Diagnostics (LDX) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and long term trend is transitioning from down to up, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +7.9% Coronado Global Resources (CRN) – No news, met coal prices ticked up overnight…

• +7.2% Resolute Mining (RSG) – No news, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today.

• +6.9% REA Group (REA) – Appendix 4E and Annual Report.

• +6.9% Warriedar Resources (WA8) – No news, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +6.7% Healius (HLS) – Updated Policy on Trading in Healius Securities.

• +6.3% Austal (ASB) – AUSA receives contract and commences construction on 2nd OPC, general strength across the broader Defence sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, one of the most Featured (highest conviction) stocks in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +5.7% West African Resources (WAF) – Diggers & Dealers Presentation 2025, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today.

• +5.6% Stanmore Resources (SMR) – No news, ditto met coal prices…

• +5.4% Alkane Resources (ALK) – Alkane and Mandalay Announce Closing of Merger and Diggers & Dealers Mining Forum Presentation, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈

• +5.4% Ora Banda Mining (OBM) – No news, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today.

• +5.4% Audinate Group (AD8) – No news 🤔.

• +5.3% Turaco Gold (TCG) – No news, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today.

• +5.3% James Hardie Industries (JHX) – No news 🤔.

• +5.3% Capricorn Metals (CMM) – No news, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today.

• +5.1% News Corporation (NWS) – FY2025 Fourth Quarter Earnings Release.

Trading lower

• -27.1% Amplia Therapeutics (ATX) – Positive ACCENT Trial Topline Data Released.

• -5.3% Arafura Rare Earths (ARU) – Ceasing to be a substantial holder.

• -5.1% TPG Telecom (TPG) – Infomedia enters scheme implementation agreement with TPG.

• -4.9% Syrah Resources (SYR) – Retail Offer Booklet.

• -4.5% Predictive Discovery (PDI) – No news 🤔.

• -4.1% Light & Wonder (LNW) – No news 🤔.

• -4.0% Core Lithium (CXO) – No news 🤔.

Broker Moves

The a2 Milk Company (A2M)

• Retained at Neutral at Citi; Price Target: $8.20

• Retained at Equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $6.60

AGL Energy (AGL)

• Retained at Equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $11.88

AML3D (AL3)

• Retained at Speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.40

Amotiv (AOV)

• Retained at Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $10.90

• Retained at Buy at UBS; Price Target: $12.60

Eagers Automotive (APE)

• Retained at Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $20.60

• Retained at Sell at UBS; Price Target: $16.50

ARB Corporation (ARB)

• Retained at Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $43.70

• Retained at Buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $37.00

• Retained at Sell at UBS; Price Target: $34.00

Arafura Rare Earths (ARU)

• Retained at Hold at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.20

Austal (ASB)

• Retained at Neutral at Citi; Price Target: $7.00 from $6.10

• Retained at Neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $7.05 from $5.90

Autosports Group (ASG)

• Retained at Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.82

• Retained at Neutral at UBS; Price Target: $3.20 from $3.10

Aurizon Holdings (AZJ)

• Downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.31 from $3.39

Beach Energy (BPT)

• Downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JPMorgan; Price Target: $1.05 from $1.45

Breville Group (BRG)

• Retained at Overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $36.50

CAR Group (CAR)

• Retained at Buy at Citi; Price Target: $42.60

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA)

• Retained at Sell at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $105.00

• Retained at Sell at UBS; Price Target: $120.00

Credit Corp Group (CCP)

• Retained at Buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $21.60 from $20.60

• Retained at Positive at E&P; Price Target: $26.35 from $25.10

• Retained at Buy at Jefferies; Price Target: $19.65 from $18.80

• Retained at Overweight at JPMorgan; Price Target: $19.60 from $19.00

• Retained at Neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $18.23 from $16.27

• Retained at Buy at Morgans; Price Target: $21.50 from $20.50

Chalice Mining (CHN)

• Retained at Underweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $0.90

Carnarvon Energy (CVN)

• Downgraded to Speculative Buy from Buy at Euroz Hartleys; Price Target: $0.16 from $0.18

Delta Lithium (DLI)

• Retained at Neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $0.17

Dexus (DXS)

• Retained at Underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $7.75

Electro Optic Systems Holdings (EOS)

• Retained at Buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $5.00 from $3.75

• Retained at Buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $4.30 from $3.30

• Retained at Buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $4.25 from $2.20

Fortescue (FMG)

• Retained at Sell at UBS; Price Target: $17.40

FleetPartners Group (FPR)

• Retained at Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.68

Genesis Minerals (GMD)

• Retained at Buy at UBS; Price Target: $5.20

Hastings Technology Metals (HAS)

• Retained at Hold at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.35

IDP Education (IEL)

• Retained at Buy at UBS; Price Target: $4.95

IGO (IGO)

• Retained at Overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $5.20

Iluka Resources (ILU)

• Retained at Buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $5.85

• Retained at Overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $5.55

Imricor Medical Systems Inc (IMR)

• Initiated at Buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $2.06

LendLease Group (LLC)

• Retained at Neutral at UBS; Price Target: $6.05 from $5.56

Lynas Rare Earths (LYC)

• Retained at Overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $11.50

• Retained at Hold at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $9.65

• Retained at Overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $12.15 from $11.00

Meteoric Resources NL (MEI)

• Retained at Overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $0.25

Mirvac Group (MGR)

• Retained at Equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $2.45

McMillan Shakespeare (MMS)

• Retained at Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $18.24

• Retained at Overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $20.00

Newmont Corporation (NEM)

• Retained at Overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $115.00

Northern Star Resources (NST)

• Retained at Neutral at UBS; Price Target: $16.65

Oohmedia (OML)

• Retained at Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.00

Predictive Discovery (PDI)

• Retained at Overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $0.45

Paladin Energy (PDN)

• Retained at Neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $7.60

• Retained at Buy at UBS; Price Target: $9.00

Pilbara Minerals (PLS)

• Retained at Underweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $1.20

Pinnacle Investment Management Group (PNI)

• Retained at Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $25.33 from $25.10

• Retained at Buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $26.80 from $26.10

• Retained at Neutral at UBS; Price Target: $23.00 from $21.70

Perseus Mining (PRU)

• Retained at Neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $3.80

• Retained at Buy at UBS; Price Target: $4.15

Ramelius Resources (RMS)

• Retained at Overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $3.60 from $3.90

Regis Resources (RRL)

• Retained at Underweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $3.10

Resolute Mining (RSG)

• Retained at Overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $0.90

South32 (S32)

• Retained at Overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $3.95

SiteMinder (SDR)

• Retained at Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $6.09

Sandfire Resources (SFR)

• Retained at Overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $12.00

Stockland (SGP)

• Retained at Buy at Citi; Price Target: $6.00

Smartgroup Corporation (SIQ)

• Retained at Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $9.06

SKS Technologies Group (SKS)

• Retained at Buy at Morgans; Price Target: $2.75 from $2.30

Stanmore Resources (SMR)

• Retained at Neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $2.30

Service Stream (SSM)

• Retained at Buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $2.25 from $1.95

Seven West Media (SWM)

• Retained at Neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.18

Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX)

• Retained at Buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $33.00 from $34.00

• Retained at Outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $25.00 from $32.50

TPG Telecom (TPG)

• Downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $5.30 from $5.50

• Retained at Hold at Morgans; Price Target: $5.40

• Retained at Neutral at UBS; Price Target: $5.40 from $4.80

Temple & Webster Group (TPW)

• Retained at Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $17.60

Tuas (TUA)

• Retained at Overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $7.00

Vault Minerals (VAU)

• Retained at Buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.53 from $0.55

Vitrafy Life Sciences (VFY)

• Retained at Speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $2.10 from $2.00

• Retained at Buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $2.10 from $2.00

• Retained at Speculative Buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $2.30

VHM (VHM)

• Retained at Speculative Buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $1.05

West African Resources (WAF)

• Retained at Overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $3.40

Wildcat Resources (WC8)

• Retained at Overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $0.30

Woodside Energy Group (WDS)

• Retained at Neutral at UBS; Price Target: $25.00

Whitehaven Coal (WHC)

• Retained at Neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $6.60

Block, Inc. (XYZ)

• Downgraded to Equal-weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $73.00 from $67.00

Scans