ASX 200 Live Today - Wednesday, 6th August

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Wednesday, August 6. We’re excited to be trialing this new format. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. Today's live blog will wrap up around 2:00 pm AEST. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.

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Traders lift short bets against Boss Energy, Pilbara Minerals

[14:27 pm] Data from Factset and ASIC shows hedge funds have lifted bets on more share price falls for beaten-up uranium miner Boss Energy.

According to the data between July 17 and July 31 short interest against Boss Energy lifted from 14.4% to 18.3%. On July 28 Boss Energy warned that its Honeymoon Mine may face higher operating and production costs in an outcome that led investors to halve its valuation.

Lithium bellwether Pilbara Minerals is also being bet against it, with short interest in its stock up from 13.6% to 16.3% over the same two week period.

By Tom Richardson.

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Jarden downgrades TPG Telecom to neutral from overweight

[14:15 pm] Broker Jarden has reacted to TPG's profit report and guidance by reducing its rating on the stock from overweight to neutral and cut its price target on the stock to $5.30 from $5.40.

Shares changed hands for $5.42 on Wednesday afternoon.

By Tom Richardson.

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Justin Langer walks from MinRes board

[14:11 pm] Former cricketer Justin Langer is to leave the board of struggling lithium and iron ore miner Mineral Resources. The former market darling ran into some trouble on corporate governance issues surrounding its founder and chief executive Chris Ellison.

However, Mr Ellison still enjoys the support of lots of institutional investors and retail shareholders thanks to his instrumental deal-making in shaping the business and shareholders' returns.

MinRes shares are up 1.1% to $33.28 at lunchtime.

By Tom Richardson.

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ASX confuses TPG Telecom for private equity group

[13:30 pm] Not a great day at the office for ASX's listings team after it erroneously told investors TPG Telecom had bought auto-parts software platform Infomedia, when the purchaser was in fact private equity group TPG Capital.

The blunder means ASX will unwind all trades in TPG Telecom this morning up until the time it realised the error and put the telco's stock in a trading halt.

By Tom Richardson.

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Zenith warns shares are getting expensive

[13:30 pm] Zenith's head of asset allocation Damien Hennessy says US equity markets are expensive trading on price to earnings multiples of 23x.

"The areas I’m focusing on are: is there a risk for interest rates to have to go a lot higher? And is there a rise in the risk of recession? The average tariff rate is around 18 per cent, and I think if we start pushing above these levels, it could lead the markets to consider recession risks more seriously - but I don’t think we are quite there," said Mr Hennessy.

“We get the feeling that the next three to six months will be more challenging than the first half of this year because we’ll start to see some impact of tariffs on both growth and inflation. Our view is growth will slow, but not enough to raise the risk of recession, and that it will be manageable.”

By Tom Richardson.

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Macquarie tips Pinnacle Investments shares to outperform

[13:07 pm] Broker Macquarie has an outperform rating and $25.33 share price target on investment conglomerate Pinnacle Investments.

Shares are up 6.2% to $24.27 at lunchtime as investors cheers an outlook for more growth in affiliates funds under management and future performance fees.

"PNI has an attractive organic growth outlook and potential to add accretive M&A. Outlook for organic performance is backed by net flows, performance fees, and operating leverage," Macquarie said.

By Tom Richardson.

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Gold stocks continue to run

[12:51 pm] Gold stocks are running hot, with the S&P/All Ords Gold Index up 9.2% in the last three sessions.

Similar to Tuesday, gold prices haven't actually moved all that much and continue to trade around the US$3,370 level.

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Australia's industrial activity jumps to three year high

[11:40 am] The Australian Industry Index is a monthly index that measures changes in activity in Australia's industrial sectors. The Index improved to -3.2 in July, marking the highest score in three years. Here are the key findings from the survey:

• Rising input costs and wages intensified supply-side pressures, signaling ongoing inflation risks while sales prices declined

• Demand conditions improved in July, with improvements in new orders and sales, while employment dipped marginally but remained generally steady

• Business services continued to strengthen, and has seen a marked improvement in conditions since the start of the year. It is now driving the industrial recovery, with construction also rising

• Manufacturing remained very weak, and shows no sign of recovery yet. Trade risks and energy costs are holding back recovery in manufacturing relative to other industrial sectors

Source: AI Group

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REA Group: Earnings call highlights

[11:35 am] REA Group just wrapped up their FY25 earnings call. Here are the key takeaways:

• Expect double-digit earnings growth in 2026, driven by a 7% price rise and greater uptake of Audience Maximiser and Luxe

• Management confident in sustaining double-digit growth and positive jaws into 2027, aided by Cyber City expansion

• India strategy focused on app audience growth, though losses are projected to rise due to Housing Edge changes

• Luxe listings are gaining traction with 2x the views of Premiere, with penetration expected to grow gradually.

• Strong cash position supports a higher payout ratio, with no near-term investment needs

• M&A still on the table, largely reserved for AI-related opportunities

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Small caps making moves

[10:51 am] Here are the top small caps ($200m to $1bn market cap) gainers and losers in early trade.

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Top gainers and losers in early trade

[10:29 am] Here are the top S&P/ASX 200 gainers and losers in early trade.

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Macquarie Neutral on Credit Corp

[10:23 am] Credit Corp shares surged 16% on Tuesday after reporting a strong recovery in FY25 earnings that was mostly in-line with Macquarie estimates.

• Revenue up 5% to $545.6m vs. Macquarie ests (May-25) of $567.5m (3.8% miss)

• NPAT up 86% to $94.1m vs. $93.2m ests (1.0% beat)

• Full-year dividend up 79% to 68 cents per share vs. 68 cents ests (in-line)

Macquarie analysts retained a Neutral rating and left their target price unchanged at $18.23.

"We believe the current share price captures the earnings outlook for the group, with a higher multiple (20x NPAT) applied to the US PDL segment to reflect the growth potential," noted the analysts.

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UBS' take on Pinnacle results

[10:16 am] UBS has run the ruler over Pinnacle's FY25 results, retaining a Neutral rating while raising their target price from $21.00 to $23.00. Here are the key takeaways:

• FY25 NPAT of $134.4m was 11% below UBS and 4% below consensus, but the miss was due to lumpy one-offs; underlying miss to UBS just ~3%.

• FUM beat expectations at $179.4bn (+2% vs UBS, +4.5% vs consensus), with strong 4Q flows of $10.2bn; pro-forma FUM exits FY25 at ~$187bn (+29% vs FY25 average).

• FY26 outlook strong with forecasted 28% FUM growth to $230bn, driven by LifeCycle demand and moderating drag from Horizon II initiatives.

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Nanosonics receives FDA clearance for next generation trophon technology

[9:47 am] Nanosonics has been granted clearance by the US FDA to commercially launch trophon3 and trophon2 Plus, a software upgrade package for existing trophon 2 users in the US.

The company says trophon3 delivers a range of new benefits, with the widest traceability capabilities, 40% faster than previous generations and fully customisable to a range of customer workflows. Meanwhile the trophon2 Plus is a software upgrade package that enables existing units to access the key new features of trophon3, applicable to the 20,000 trophon2 devices globally.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Nanosonics (NAN)

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TPG acquire Infomedia for $651 million

[9:40 am] TPG has entered into a scheme implementation agreement to acquire Infomedia at $1.72 cash per share or a 30.3% premium to its last close ($1.32). The cash offer represents an implied equity value of $651 million.

The takeover allows Infomedia to pay a fully franked dividend of up to 4.9 cents per share.

Infomedia's Board recommends that shareholders vote in favour of the scheme, noting: "The all-cash offer represents a compelling premium of 41% to Infomedia’s 3-month VWAP and delivers certainty of value in an increasingly uncertain environment."

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Infomedia (IFM)

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E&P's first take on REA result

[9:32 am] E&P Capital’s analyst Entcho Raykovski says the result was broadly in-line with consensus estimates and expects the stock to "perform in line with the market today". His key takeaways include:

• Group opex to grow high single digits, excluding PropTiger (vs consensus +11.2%, E&Pe +9.7%)

• Q1 listings to be down year-on-year due to strong comps (1Q25 listings jumped 7% year-on-year), but management expect FY26 listings to be flat year-on-year, in-line with E&P estimates

• REA continues to target double-digit residential Buy yield growth, including a 7% national average Premiere+ price rise (E&Pe for +12% yield growth)

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Lindian signs feedstock agreement with Iluka

[9:24 am] Lindian Resources has signed an agreement to supply Iluka with 6,000 tonnes per annum (ktpa) of rare earth concentrate for 15 years. The feedstock will support Iluka’s Eneabba rare earths refinery, representing ~10% of its capacity.

Eneabba will be Australia’s first fully integrated rare earths refinery, with commissioning expected in 2027.

To support Lindian with the development of its Kangankunde rare earths project, Iluka has provided a US$20 million loan facility. The key terms of the loan include: 5-year term, SOFR +11% interest (capitalised for two years during construction).

Iluka sees this deal as part of its strategy to secure diverse feedstocks for Eneabba, with Kangankunde viewed as a large, low-cost and simple mining operation.

Source: ASX Announcement

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REA Group relatively in-line FY25 numbers, soft FY26 listing outlook

[9:18 am] REA Group delivered another year of strong double-digit earnings growth, with results largely in line with market expectations. However, its outlook commentary appears slightly cautious.

• Revenue up 15% to $1.67bn vs. $1.67bn consensus (in-line)

• National residential listings up 1% year-on-year

• Group operating expenses up 12% to $704m

• Core EBITDA up 18% to $943.3m vs. $958.4m consensus (1.5% miss)

• NPAT up 23% to $564m vs. $566m consensus (0.3% miss)

• Full-year dividend up 31.2% to $2.48 cents per share vs. 233.8 consensus (6.1% beat)

REA also provided some forward looking commentary for the year ahead, including:

• National residential Buy listing volumes expected to be broadly in line with last year

• Q1 listings will be lower due to strong comparables, with July listings down 8% YoY (Sydney -5%, Melbourne -9%)

• REA continues to target double-digit residential Buy yield growth

• Positive operating jaws targeted and high single-digit core operating cost growth expected (ex-PropTiger).

• Cost growth driven by strategic investment and strong growth in Audience Maximiser

• EBITDA losses in India to be impacted by weaker Housing Edge revenue

To add some perspective, Macquarie analysts forecasted 2% listings growth in FY26, ~15% residential buy yield growth and 2% operating jaws.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: REA Group (REA)

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News Corp earnings call highlights

[9:05 am] News Corp wrapped up their FY25 earnings call earlier this morning. Here are some of the key takeaways (nothing price sensitive to be honest):

• Accelerating $1bn buyback using Foxtel sale proceeds and improved free cash flow, no set leverage ratio

• Realtor.com revenue growth driven by rentals, new homes, and seller segments

• Company simplification underway with Foxtel sale completed, Realtor.com positioned for upside as housing market recovers

• Actively negotiating with AI companies to protect and monetise intellectual property

• Wall Street Journal digital subscriptions rose 9%, supported by unique content and new partnership with Elsight

• CapEx increased due to Dow Jones initiatives and Sky News Studio relocation, with future spend to focus on growth areas

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News Corp to accelerate buybacks

[9:02 am] News Corp reported a solid FY25 result, with management highlighting the company's strong financial ability and ability to return capital to shareholders. The key numbers (vs. Jarden estimates) include:

• Revenue up 2% to $8.45bn vs. $8.43bn ests

• EBITDA up 14% to $1.41bn vs. $1.41bn ests

• Free cash flow of $571m (vs. FY24: $540m)

• Semi-annual cash dividend of 10 cents per share, in-line with ests

"Last month, the Board of Directors authorized a new $1 billion stock repurchase program, in addition to the approximately $300 million remaining from the previous $1 billion program authorized four years ago. We expect to begin executing repurchases at an accelerated rate shortly after the release of these results," noted CEO Robert Thomson.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: News Corp (NWS)

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Pinnacle Investment Management reports FY25 results

[8:55 am] Pinnacle reported some big numbers for FY25, as the investment company welcomed three new international affiliates, delivered strong investment outcomes and lifted FUM to record levels. Here are the key numbers vs. Macquarie estimates:

• Net profit after tax up 49% to $134.4m vs. $138.8m ests (3.2% miss)

• Total dividends up 43% to 60 cents per share vs. 57.3 cents ests (4.7% beat)

• Aggregate affiliates' FUM of $179.4 billion (30-Jun) vs. $167.2bn ests (7.3% beat)

• Net cash and principal investments of $363.5m

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Pinnacle Investment Management (PNI)

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Q2 earnings remain a key bullish driver for stocks

[8:47 am] One of the high-profile bullish talking points for equity markets are strong earnings. According to FactSet:

• Blended Q2 earnings growth rate at 10.3%, well above the 4.9% expected at the quarter’s start

• 82% of S&P 500 companies have beaten consensus earnings estimates (vs. 77% one-year average)

• Earnings are coming in 8.0% above expectations on average (vs. 6.3% one-year average surprise rate)

• Positive themes: strong big tech earnings, ongoing AI capex from hyperscalers, improved AI monetization/productivity, tariff mitigation, broad-based revenue beats, positive guidance, FX tailwind, and cash earnings from reconciliation bill

• Caution points: frequent mentions of macro/tariff uncertainty, demand pull-ins due to tariffs, large earnings gap between big tech and rest of market, AI capex weighing on free cash flow, mixed consumer trends, and housing softness

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Overnight tariff and trade developments

[8:46 am] A few incremental trade developments overnight, including:

• EU and US near agreement on a 15% all-inclusive trade deal, with steel volumes remaining a sticking point

• A senior EU official described the deal as a relief, but not worth celebrating

• Switzerland pushing back against surprise 39% US tariff, presenting a counter-proposal with uncertain impact before Thursday’s deadline

• US-India tensions rising after Trump threatened higher tariffs over India’s Russian energy imports

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Fed Daly calls for at least two rate cuts

[8:42 am] Some slightly dovish Fedspeak coming from San Francisco Fed President Daly overnight. Here's what she told Reuters:

• The time is nearing for Fed rate cuts

• September is not a done deal for a cut, but every meeting going forward should be viewed as a live meeting for policy adjustments

• Two rate cuts outlined in the Fed dot plot seems to be appropriate

• Stressed the Fed should be prepared for more aggressive easing if the labour market appears to be entering into a period of weakness

The likelihood of a 25 bp cut in September spiked to 92.4%, up from 63.3% a week ago due to the soft non-farm payroll print last Friday.

Source: Reuters

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Good morning!

[8:33 am] ASX 200 futures are up 11pts (+0.12%) despite a relatively weak overnight lead, where the S&P 500 slipped 0.49%. Today's a pretty big session with a handful of reporters (REA, CLW, NWS, PNI), more tariff/trade developments and overnight catalysts.

If you’re new to the blog – catch up quick via today’s Morning Wrap.