Evening Wrap: ASX 200 back to selloff mode as China-US sabre-rattling sees investors dump major Energy and Mining stocks

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 135.0 points lower, down 1.80%.

Back to selling, and back to pain for investors who intend to faithfully hold through the current market turmoil. And that turmoil appears to be growing, not shrinking, as the trade war sabre-rattling continues on both sides of the Pacific.

There were heavy falls in Energy and Resources stocks again, but Healthcare, and Technology stocks were also hard hit. Utilities, and Consumer stocks were the only place to hide, but losses were widespread.

Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the Nasdaq Composite, S&P/ASX 200, US 10-year Treasury Bond Yield, and the Australian Dollar vs US Dollar (AUDUSD) and in today's ChartWatch.

As always, click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key upcoming economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 135.0 points lower at 7,375.0, 1.83% from its session high and just 0.35% from its low. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO), advancers lagged decliners by a dismal 40 to 246 (so much for yesterday’s media-blitzing bounce, huh!?).

Back to selling, and back to pain for investors who intend to faithfully hold through the current market turmoil. And that turmoil appears to be growing, not shrinking, as the trade war sabre-rattling continues on both sides of the Pacific.

There were heavy falls in Energy (XEJ) (-4.0%) and Resources (XJR) (-3.6%) stocks again, but Health Care (XHJ) (-3.6%) and Information Technology (XIJ) (-1.9%) stocks were also hard hit.

Utilities (XUJ) (+0.22%) and Consumer stocks (Consumer Discretionary (XDJ) (-0.35%) and Consumer Staples (XSJ) (-0.66%)) were the only place to hide (if you can call it that), but losses were widespread.

ChartWatch

NASDAQ Composite Index

The Zebra has returned 🦓!!! (click here for full size image)

The Zebra has returned 🦓!!!

Black, white, black. And some pretty decent hitters in terms of their size, each of the last three candles, that is.

This is why I don’t try to pick the bottom. In choppy markets, trend traders get chopped up 🪓. It’s also fair to say that in choppy markets, smart trend traders get out of town.

As for understanding when we will eventually (soooo eventually…) be able to say with confident hindsight the bottom is in, and that the new bull market has begun – I laid all bare in this article I wrote today.

But long suffering readers of this section will find nothing new in there! You’ve seen it all here before!

In yesterday’s update, I said something along the lines of “I do think there’d some bastion of demand in the 15222-15708 zone”. Looking at that candle from last night…what do you think? 🤔

It looks just about cracked!

A close below the new trough low set at the low of Monday’s candle at 14784 would seal the deal and likely set this bear market up for another extension.

And those are the key words “bear” and “market”. The technicals suggest the path of least resistance remains down, and therefore we must as trend traders respect this and remain on high alert.

My present preferred setup is no more than one-third invested (this is a cap, you can go less, or zero if you prefer), and with long exposure balanced equally by short exposure. As we have confirmed the new long term downtrend, I am allowed to move to a maximum of one-third of total capital in short exposure if I see the need.

This is how I like to do things in a long term downtrend. I don’t know your situation, only you do – and you must carefully consider what is best for you.

I am just trying to give you a perspective on how a trend trader thinks in such circumstances.

My model suggests that now is not the time to be a hero. That time will come, but I assure you we’ll be in the most boring of short and long term uptrends by then 📈📈!

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

🦓 here too (click here for full size image)

🦓 here too.

There’s nothing to see here that we didn’t already know. Nothing has changed. I know that’s not what the zillions of click bait media articles and the 6-o’clock news is going to say tonight:

“And in finance news…retirees are starting down the barrel of a bleak retirement as further zillions were wiped off share prices today…Now for sports, and Collingwood mid-fielder…”

Ditto my personal preference for the most conservative risk setting here also.

The price action and the candles will tell us when one party – either the demand side or the supply side – has taken control of the price in the short term, first, and then in the long term (potentially many days or weeks down the track!).

US 10 Year T-Bond Yield

Not a 🦓, a wall of ⬜🕯️s! (click here for full size image)

I couldn’t not show you this one tonight, particularly after we discussed the importance of Friday's massive about-face and Monday's massive (just massssivveee!) white candle.

There was a further follow through last night, and as all sorts of bad news items appear to be bubbling up in Asia today, there’s been a gap and run in today’s live candle (i.e., last on the chart).

Markets are discombobulated. Of that there can be no doubt.

If we’re about to enter a global recession as a result of the developing trade war – we don’t want to see this layer of bad news (i.e., high risk-free yields) plastered on top.

Growth in the toilet and stubbornly high market yields?

Hmmm...Not a great recipe!

Think of it this way: Today we saw stocks and bonds get sold off (remember, the price going up here means bond prices are going down). If this is the case, then where did all that cash go? 🤔

Yep, under the mattress. Fund managers are getting out their shotguns as we speak!

This is a scary chart ladies and gents. There's no sugar coating it. This stuff is not good 👎.

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar (AUDUSD)

The little Aussie battler has a battle on its hands (click here for full size image)

I’ll leave you with this one, because it’s another handy macro-type of indicator to watch during developing crises and their corresponding unravelling markets.

The little Aussie battler. Long seen as the canary in the mineshaft, the baby in the bathwater, the cart before the horse of your typical market crash. Well to be fair, we do have a substantial exposure to the health of the global economy.

More likely, though, the real reason the Aussie dollar is the plaything of big hedge funds, is because it’s a deep and liquid asset. This means it’s easier to get size shorting the AUDUSD or the AUDJPY than say, a stock, or even a stock index for the bigger players.

So, the little Aussie battler gets caught in the downdraft every few years when situations like the current one arises.

And that’s a nice segue into the chart above. It is zero coincidence that the giant black candle here corresponds to abrupt about-face in the US 10’s chart. The only saving grace is that so far, today’s candle appears to be bucking the trend.

Economy

Today

• There weren't any major data releases in our time zone today

Later this week

Thursday

• 04:00 USA FOMC Meeting Minutes

• 11:30 CHN Consumer Price Index (CPI) & Producer Price Index (PPI) March

  • CPI: +0.1% p.a. vs -0.7% p.a. in February

  • PPI: -2.3% p.a. vs -2.2% p.a. in February

• 20:00 RBA Governor Michelle Bullock Speaks

• 22:30 USA Core CPI March (+0.3% m/m and 3.0% p.a. forecast vs +0.2% m/m and 3.1% p.a. in February)

Friday

• 22:30 USA Core PPI March (+0.3% m/m and 3.4% p.a. forecast vs -0.1% m/m and 3.2% p.a. in February)

Saturday

• 00:00 Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment April (54.0 forecast vs 57.0 previous)

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +12.2% Global X Ultra Short Nasdaq-100 Hedge Fund ETF (SNAS) - No news, short Nasdaq ETF.

• +10.8% BetaShares US EQY Strong Bear - CH ETF (BBUS) - No news, short US equities ETF.

• +6.1% Vaneck China New Economy ETF (CNEW) - No news, Chinese stocks up strongly last two sessions on promises of government support.

• +5.7% Cettire (CTT) -Change in substantial holdingN (looks like some short selling shenanigans going on here).

• +4.6% BetaShares Australian Strong Bear ETF (BBOZ) - No news, short Australian equities ETF.

• +4.5% Healius (HLS) - No news 🤔.

• +3.3% Bapcor (BAP) - No news 🤔.

• +2.6% The A2 Milk Company (A2M) - Ceasing to be a substantial holder and Ceasing to be a substantial holder (again possibly some short selling shenanigans here, UBS and Goldman Sachs, stock likely seen as defensive in current environment).

• +2.4% ASX (ASX) - No news, possibly all of this activity is seen positive for the company that runs the ASX!.

• +2.2% Abacus Storage King (ASK) - Continued positive response to 07-Apr Unsolicited Non Binding Indicative Proposal.

• +2.2% Guzman y Gomez (GYG) - Continued positive response to 08-Jul Q3 FY25 Update, several broker moves and comments including an upgrade to sector perform from underperform at RBC Capital Markets, see Broker Moves below for details.

• +2.0% Lynas Rare Earths (LYC) - No news, generally seen as a beneficiary of the US-China spat as both countries look to shore up supplies of rare earths, also received two price target increases from the brokers today, see Broker Moves below for details.

• +1.9% iShares China Large-Cap ETF (IZZ) - No news, another long Chinese stocks ETF.

• +1.8% Global X Physical Gold ETF (GOLD) - No news, gold price is currently up in Asian trade.

Trading lower

• -14.4% Larvotto Resources (LRV) - No news, general weakness across the broader Gold sector today.

• -14.2% Champion Iron (CIA) - No news, general weakness across the broader Resources sector today, plus price target cut to $5.90 from $7.60 by Goldman Sachs, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -14.1% Nickel Industries (NIC) - No news, general weakness across the broader Resources sector today, plus downgraded to equal-weight from overweight at Morgan Stanley and price target cut to $0.550 from $1.000, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -12.6% Santana Minerals (SMI) - No news, general weakness across the broader Gold sector today.

• -12.1% Mineral Resources (MIN) - N, (Citi possibly cutting some short exposure here, but there were several big broker moves including a downgrade to sell from Goldman Sachs and several large price target cuts, see Broker Moves for details), general weakness across the broader Resources sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -12.0% Metro Mining (MMI) - No news, general weakness across the broader Resources sector today.

• -11.9% Regal Partners (RPL) - RPL March 2025 Funds Under Management, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

Broker Moves

• 29METALS (29M)

  • Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $0.130 from $0.230

• Astral Resources (AAR)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.490 from $0.410

• Abacus Group (ABG)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $1.350

• Adriatic Metals (ADT)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $4.50 from $4.30

• ALS (ALQ)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $17.75

• Ansell (ANN)

  • Downgraded to neutral from outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $31.05 from $40.30

• Amotiv (AOV)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $12.35

• Arena Reit. (ARF)

  • Upgraded to buy from hold at Moelis Australia; Price Target: $3.98

• Andean Silver (ASL)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $3.05 from $2.85

• Antipa Minerals (AZY)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $1.040 from $0.950

• BHP Group (BHP)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $45.10 from $47.30

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $39.50 from $48.50

• Boss Energy (BOE)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $3.30

  • Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $2.45 from $2.95

• Bank of Queensland (BOQ)

  • Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $6.95 from $7.14

• Bluescope Steel (BSL)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $28.70 from $37.70

• Brightstar Resources (BTR)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.080 from $0.060

• Brambles (BXB)

  • Retained at sell at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $18.35

• Champion Iron (CIA)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $5.90 from $7.60

• Capricorn Metals (CMM)

  • Upgraded to buy from hold at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $10.60 from $8.70

• Cochlear (COH)

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $282.15

• Coronado Global Resources (CRN)

  • Downgraded to neutral from buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $0.350 from $1.050

  • Upgraded to neutral from underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.300 from $0.400

• CSL (CSL)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $360.30

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $310.00

• Corporate Travel Management (CTD)

  • Upgraded to outperform from hold at CLSA; Price Target: $14.65 from $14.90

• Count (CUP)

  • Initiated at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $1.000

• Core Lithium (CXO)

  • Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $0.080 from $0.080

• Catalyst Metals (CYL)

  • Downgraded to hold from buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $6.10 from $5.00

• De Grey Mining (DEG)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $3.80 from $3.05

• DigiCo REIT (DGT)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.33

• Deterra Royalties (DRR)

  • Downgraded to neutral from buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $3.60 from $4.70

  • Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $3.90 from $3.90

• Dexus Industria Reit. (DXI)

  • Downgraded to hold from add at Morgans; Price Target: $2.60 from $3.16

• Deep Yellow (DYL)

  • Upgraded to buy from hold at Argonaut Securities; Price Target: $1.000 from $1.100

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.700 from $1.900

• Echoiq (EIQ)

  • Initiated at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.380

• Emerald Resources (EMR)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $5.90 from $5.25

• Evolution Mining (EVN)

  • Retained at hold at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $7.25 from $6.15

  • Downgraded to underweight from equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $5.55 from $5.95

• Flight Centre Travel Group (FLT)

  • Retained at outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $19.00 from $18.55

• Fortescue (FMG)

  • Upgraded to neutral from sell at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $15.30 from $16.20

  • Upgraded to overweight from equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $16.60 from $18.15

• Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corporation (FPH)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: NZ$38.90 from NZ$41.70

• Garda Property Group (GDF)

  • Downgraded to hold from add at Morgans; Price Target: $1.150 from $1.590

• Genesis Minerals (GMD)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $5.10 from $4.15

• Goodman Group (GMG)

  • Upgraded to add from hold at Morgans; Price Target: $35.30 from $38.00

• Gold Road Resources (GOR)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $3.35 from $2.75

• Guzman y Gomez (GYG)

  • Retained at outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $38.10 from $40.10

  • Retained at sell at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $33.60

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $42.20

  • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $36.90 from $42.50

  • Upgraded to sector perform from underperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $31.00

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $35.00 from $40.00

• Hub24 (HUB)

  • Upgraded to overweight from market-weight at Wilsons; Price Target: $65.06 from $82.00

• IDP Education (IEL)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $16.00

• IVE Group (IGL)

  • Initiated at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $3.40

• IGO (IGO)

  • Upgraded to buy from neutral at Citi; Price Target: $4.00 from $5.30

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $4.60 from $5.30

  • Upgraded to equal-weight from underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $3.50 from $3.85

• Iluka Resources (ILU)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $6.60 from $7.00

  • Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $3.65 from $4.45

• Iperionx (IPX)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $2.19

• Kingsgate Consolidated (KCN)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $4.00 from $3.35

• Liontown Resources (LTR)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $0.500 from $0.600

  • Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $0.640 from $0.690

• Lynas Rare Earths (LYC)

  • Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $7.10 from $7.00

  • Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $7.00 from $5.65

• Mineral Resources (MIN)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $29.00 from $39.50

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $20.00 from $28.00

  • Downgraded to sell from neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $18.00 from $30.00

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $35.00 from $50.00

• Medallion Metals (MM8)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.650 from $0.550

• Monadelphous Group (MND)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $16.65

• Nido Education (NDO)

  • Initiated at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $1.500

• New Hope Corporation (NHC)

  • Retained at sell at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $2.90 from $4.30

• NHW

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $3.85

• Nickel Industries (NIC)

  • Downgraded to equal-weight from overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $0.550 from $1.000

• National Storage Reit (NSR)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $2.70

• Northern Star Resources (NST)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $27.75 from $22.85

  • Upgraded to overweight from equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $20.50 from $18.40

• Netwealth Group (NWL)

  • Upgraded to overweight from market-weight at Wilsons; Price Target: $25.15 from $32.52

• Nextdc (NXT)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $21.20

• Ora Banda Mining (OBM)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $1.200 from $1.050

• Orica (ORI)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $21.50

• Predictive Discovery (PDI)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.560 from $0.520

• Paladin Energy (PDN)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $10.20

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $5.00 from $10.00

• Pilbara Minerals (PLS)

  • Upgraded to buy from neutral at Citi; Price Target: $1.650 from $2.40

  • Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $1.750 from $2.05

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $1.800 from $2.75

• Patriot Battery Metals (PMT)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $0.350 from $0.500

• Pantoro (PNR)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $3.91 from $3.23

• Praemium (PPS)

  • Downgraded to market-weight from overweight at Wilsons; Price Target: $0.670 from $0.890

• Perseus Mining (PRU)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $5.00 from $4.00

• Platinum Asset Management (PTM)

  • Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.580 from $0.700

• Qoria (QOR)

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.580

• Reece (REH)

  • Retained at sell at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $16.80

• Rural Funds Group (RFF)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $2.45 from $2.50

• Rio Tinto (RIO)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $141.90 from $143.50

  • Downgraded to equal-weight from overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $115.50 from $126.00

• Resmed Inc (RMD)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $48.80 from $45.10

• Ramelius Resources (RMS)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $3.55 from $2.90

• Regal Partners (RPL)

  • Retained at positive at E&P; Price Target: $5.90

• Regis Resources (RRL)

  • Retained at hold at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $3.95 from $3.15

  • Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $4.05 from $3.35

• Resolute Mining (RSG)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $1.000 from $0.700

• Reliance Worldwide Corporation (RWC)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $6.00

• Rox Resources (RXL)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.610 from $0.560

• South32 (S32)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $3.30 from $4.00

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $2.95 from $3.85

• Sandfire Resources (SFR)

  • Upgraded to buy from neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $10.20 from $10.40

  • Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $6.95 from $9.25

• Sims (SGM)

  • Retained at sell at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $12.00

• Santana Minerals (SMI)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $1.560 from $1.330

• Spartan Resources (SPR)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $2.40 from $2.10

• Strickland Metals (STK)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.190 from $0.180

• Syrah Resources (SYR)

  • Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $0.200 from $0.200

• Turaco Gold (TCG)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.800 from $0.750

• Toubani Resources (TRE)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $1.500 from $1.400

• Titan Minerals (TTM)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $1.180 from $1.100

• Vault Minerals (VAU)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.670 from $0.550

• West African Resources (WAF)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $4.50 from $4.00

• WEB Travel Group (WEB)

  • Upgraded to outperform from hold at CLSA; Price Target: $5.35 from $4.50

• Westgold Resources (WGX)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $4.85 from $4.15

• Whitehaven Coal (WHC)

  • Downgraded to neutral from buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $5.70 from $9.20

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $6.20 from $8.05

• Worley (WOR)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $18.00

Scans