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Broker Watch
/ASX stocks attracting the biggest broker upgrades and price target increases
Broker Watch
ASX stocks attracting the biggest broker upgrades and price target increases
Tue 24 Sep 24, 11:59am (AEDT)
Source: Shutterstock, Market Index
Stocks in article
Key Points
- There is a typical lull in broker research note output following the intense August reporting season, and we catch up on the major moves in September
- Beaten down miners like BHP Group (ASX: BHP), Fortescue (ASX: FMG), and Pilbara Minerals (ASX: PLS) each saw ratings upgrades
- Lithium and gold stocks were generally on the nose with the brokers though, but for very different reasons
This is the first Broker Moves update since the beginning of FY24 earnings season in August. Through August, rather than doing our usual end of week summary, we instead covered broker consensus updates for individual companies as they reported earnings. As one might expect, with most of the big news in the market for many companies for the next six months, September does tend to be a relatively quiet month for broker research.
It’s been a few weeks now since the end of earnings season and this means that Market Index is now sitting on a critical mass of interesting broker moves, so it’s a good time to catch up. Let’s check which companies were upgraded, downgraded, and which attracted the biggest price target changes so far in September.
Rating upgrades
Company | Broker | New Rating | Old Rating | Price Target | PT Upside% |
Ampol (ALD) | Jefferies | Buy | Hold | $33.00 | 15.0% |
Aristocrat Leisure (ALL) | Ord Minnett | Accumulate | Hold | $59.00 | 3.5% |
Atlas Arteria (ALX) | Macquarie | Outperform | Neutral | $5.26 | 8.2% |
ARB Corporation (ARB) | Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Equal-Weight | $46.00 | 0.9% |
Bellevue Gold (BGL) | Ord Minnett | Hold | Sell | $1.25 | 0.8% |
BHP Group (BHP) | Macquarie | Outperform | Neutral | $44.00 | 10.5% |
BHP Group (BHP) | Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Equal-Weight | $47.50 | 19.3% |
Boss Energy (BOE) | Argonaut Securities | Buy | Hold | $3.65 | 25.9% |
BWP Trust (BWP) | Morgan Stanley | Equal-Weight | Underweight | $4.00 | 7.5% |
Challenger (CGF) | Macquarie | Neutral |
| $7.00 | 9.5% |
Capricorn Metals (CMM) | Macquarie | Outperform | Neutral | $6.30 | 0.2% |
Cooper Energy (COE) | JP Morgan | Overweight | Neutral | $0.23 | 17.9% |
Carnarvon Energy (CVN) | JP Morgan | Overweight | Neutral | $0.21 | 40.0% |
Dicker Data (DDR) | JP Morgan | Overweight | Neutral | $10.40 | 15.3% |
Dicker Data (DDR) | UBS | Buy | Neutral | $10.00 | 10.9% |
Fortescue (FMG) | RBC Capital Markets | Outperform | Sector Perform | $20.00 | 13.1% |
Fortescue (FMG) | Morgan Stanley | Equal-Weight | Underweight | $17.45 | -1.4% |
Goodman Group (GMG) | Jarden | Buy | Neutral | $40.00 | 11.9% |
GPT Group (GPT) | Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Equal-Weight | $5.60 | 11.3% |
Hansen Technologies (HSN) | Goldman Sachs | Buy | Neutral | $5.10 | 15.1% |
Harvey Norman Holdings (HVN) | CLSA | Hold | Underperform | $4.50 | -7.2% |
IGO (IGO) | Bank of America | Neutral | Underperform | $5.60 | 10.5% |
Mineral Resources (MIN) | Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Sell | $43.00 | 17.0% |
Motorcycle Holdings (MTO) | Morgans | Add | Hold | $2.20 | 36.2% |
National Australia Bank (NAB) | Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Equal-Weight | $38.00 | -4.3% |
New Hope Corporation (NHC) | Morgans | Add | Hold | $5.20 | 9.7% |
Northern Star Resources (NST) | JP Morgan | Overweight | Neutral | $16.80 | 4.7% |
Orora (ORA) | Jefferies | Buy | Hold | $3.00 | 14.1% |
Orora (ORA) | JP Morgan | Overweight | Neutral | $2.85 | 8.4% |
Origin Energy (ORG) | Macquarie | Outperform | Neutral | $10.43 | 2.4% |
Paladin Energy (PDN) | Argonaut Securities | Buy | Hold | $10.55 | 7.0% |
Pilbara Minerals (PLS) | Morgan Stanley | Equal-Weight | Underweight | $2.95 | 6.1% |
Peoplein (PPE) | Wilsons | Overweight | Marketweight | $1.18 | 68.6% |
Platinum Asset Management (PTM) | Jarden | Neutral | Underweight | $1.00 | -9.1% |
Platinum Asset Management (PTM) | JP Morgan | Neutral | Underweight | $1.05 | -4.5% |
Regis Healthcare (REG) | RBC Capital Markets | Outperform | Sector Perform | $7.50 | 21.8% |
Rio Tinto (RIO) | Macquarie | Outperform | Neutral | $120.00 | 6.8% |
Select Harvests (SHV) | Bell Potter | Buy | Hold | $4.95 | 35.6% |
Southern Cross Media (SXL) | Canaccord Genuity | Buy | Hold | $0.96 | 104.3% |
Westpac Banking Corp (WBC) | Morgan Stanley | Equal-Weight | Underweight | $29.70 | -11.6% |
Westgold Resources (WGX) | Euroz Hartleys | Buy | Hold | $2.85 | 3.6% |
September broker rating upgrades
Above is the complete list of major broker upgrades we have on file from our extensive Broker Consensus page. The first thing that stands out to me is the trio of major Australian iron ore miners, BHP Group (ASX: BHP) (Macquarie to OUTPERFORM from NEUTRAL and Morgan Stanley to OVERWEIGHT from EQUAL-WEIGHT), Fortescue (ASX: FMG) (RBC Capital Markets to OUTPERFORM from SECTOR PERFORM and Morgan Stanley to EQUAL-WEIGHT from UNDERWEIGHT), and Rio Tinto (ASX: RIO) (Macquarie to OUTPERFORM from NEUTRAL).
Morgan Stanley issued a research note covering the ASX iron ore majors, noting that stock prices had likely already accounted for the recent sharp fall in the iron ore price. While the broker acknowledged there were still risks relating to the Chinese economy, the seasonal steel production peak would likely assist the iron ore price to stabilise in coming months. Macquarie’s upgrades of BHP and FMG were also on valuation grounds.
Other double upgrades occurred for IT software and hardware supplier Dicker Data (ASX: DDR) (JP Morgan to OVERWEIGHT from NEUTRAL and UBS to BUY from NEUTRAL) and for takeover target Orora (ASX: ORA) (Jefferies to BUY from HOLD and JP Morgan to OVERWEIGHT from NEUTRAL). Like the big miners, both stocks have underperformed the broader market in terms of share price, and generally, the brokers believed they had become undervalued.
To be fair, this idea of beaten down equals value was prevalent in several other upgrades, including in the uranium and lithium sectors. Here, I note upgrades to BUY from HOLD by Argonaut Securities for uranium stocks Boss Energy (ASX: BOE) and Paladin Energy (ASX: PDN), while lithium stocks only managed to move from sell-equivalent ratings to neutral-equivalent ratings. IGO (ASX: IGO), Mineral Resources (ASX: MIN) and Pilbara Minerals (ASX: PLS) are each notable here.
Rating downgrades
Company | Broker | New Rating | Old Rating | Price Target | PT Upside% |
AGL Energy (AGL) | JP Morgan | Neutral | Overweight | $12.40 | 4.1% |
Alcidion Group (ALC) | Bell Potter | Hold | Buy | $0.07 | 25.0% |
Computershare (CPU) | JP Morgan | Neutral | Overweight | $27.00 | 6.1% |
Computershare (CPU) | Morgan Stanley | Equal-Weight | Overweight | $27.70 | 8.8% |
Dreadnought Resources (DRE) | Bell Potter | Hold | Buy | $0.02 | 33.3% |
Emerald Resources (EMR) | Ord Minnett | Sell | Hold | $3.40 | -13.5% |
Evolution Mining (EVN) | Morgan Stanley | Equal-Weight | Overweight | $4.25 | -3.0% |
Evolution Mining (EVN) | Bank of America | Neutral | Buy | $4.50 | 2.7% |
Genmin (GEN) | Bell Potter | Hold | Buy | $0.09 | 50.0% |
Graincorp (GNC) | Morgans | Hold | Add | $9.45 | 5.8% |
Guzman Y Gomez (GYG) | UBS | Sell | Neutral | $35.00 | -11.5% |
Healthco Healthcare & Wellness (HCW) | Morgan Stanley | Underweight | Equal-Weight | $1.30 | 13.0% |
IGO (IGO) | UBS | Sell | Neutral | $4.95 | -2.4% |
Jumbo Interactive (JIN) | Macquarie | Neutral | Outperform | $14.75 | 12.2% |
Liontown Resources (LTR) | UBS | Sell | Neutral | $0.70 | 11.1% |
Mineral Resources (MIN) | Morgans | Hold | Add | $39.00 | 6.1% |
Northern Star Resources (NST) | Morgan Stanley | Underweight | Equal-Weight | $14.35 | -10.6% |
Proteomics International Labs (PIQ) | Morgans | Reduce | Buy | $0.50 | -28.6% |
Platinum Asset Management (PTM) | UBS | Sell | Neutral | $0.91 | -17.3% |
Region Group (RGN) | Morgan Stanley | Underweight | Overweight | $2.44 | 4.7% |
Ramsay Health Care (RHC) | RBC Capital Markets | Sector Perform | Outperform | $52.00 | 28.4% |
Ramsay Health Care (RHC) | Morgans | Hold | Add | $44.77 | 10.5% |
Regis Resources (RRL) | Morgan Stanley | Equal-Weight | Overweight | $2.05 | 2.0% |
Regis Resources (RRL) | Bank of America | Buy | Buy | $2.00 | -0.5% |
S2 Resources (S2R) | Bell Potter | Hold | Buy | $0.10 | 25.0% |
Sims (SGM) | Jarden | Neutral | Overweight | $12.50 | 3.3% |
Sims (SGM) | UBS | Neutral | Buy | $13.50 | 11.6% |
Select Harvests (SHV) | Ord Minnett | Hold | Buy | $4.35 | 19.2% |
TPG Telecom (TPG) | JP Morgan | Neutral |
| $5.10 | 7.6% |
Woodside Energy Group (WDS) | Citi | Sell | Neutral | $24.50 | -2.0% |
Xero (XRO) | Ord Minnett | Accumulate | Buy | $160.00 | 7.3% |
September broker rating downgrades
While we’re on the topic of lithium producers, they also copped a few downgrades as well. UBS took a dim view on the fortunes of IGO and Liontown Resources (ASX: LTR), downgrading both to SELL from NEUTRAL. UBS downgraded its lithium price forecasts, and this translated through to these two rating downgrades, but also several price target cuts across the ASX lithium sector. Morgans downgrade for MIN was due to the broker's post-results analysis for the company, but again, also to do with lower lithium price assumptions.
Contrasting the fortunes of lithium, ASX gold stocks have been on a relative tear lately. Gold and lithium producer share prices really couldn’t have moved in any more the opposite direction over the last 12 months, and this has left some Aussie gold miners somewhat overvalued, according to the brokers. Emerald Resources (ASX: EMR), Evolution Mining (ASX: EVN), Northern Star Resources (ASX: NST), and Regis Resources (ASX: RRL) each received downgrades, generally to neutral-equivalent ratings from buy-equivalent ratings.
Price target increases >10%
Company | Broker | Rating | New PT | Old PT | PT Change% | PT Upside% |
Regis Healthcare (REG) | RBC Capital Markets | Outperform | $7.50 | $3.50 | 114.3% | 21.8% |
Appen (APX) | Ord Minnett | Lighten | $1.00 | $0.60 | 66.7% | -52.2% |
Motorcycle Holdings (MTO) | Morgans | Add | $2.20 | $1.40 | 57.1% | 36.2% |
Austal (ASB) | Citi | Buy | $4.14 | $3.10 | 33.5% | 36.2% |
Regis Healthcare (REG) | Ord Minnett | Buy | $6.40 | $4.90 | 30.6% | 3.9% |
Orora (ORA) | Jefferies | Buy | $3.00 | $2.40 | 25.0% | 14.1% |
Envirosuite (EVS) | Bell Potter | Hold | $0.05 | $0.04 | 25.0% | -32.4% |
Hub24 (HUB) | Citi | Neutral | $56.70 | $47.00 | 20.6% | -1.8% |
Peoplein (PPE) | Wilsons | Overweight | $1.18 | $0.98 | 20.4% | 68.6% |
Motorcycle Holdings (MTO) | Moelis Australia | Buy | $2.37 | $1.97 | 20.3% | 46.7% |
Technology One (TNE) | UBS | Buy | $26.20 | $22.00 | 19.1% | 9.7% |
Capricorn Metals (CMM) | Macquarie | Outperform | $6.30 | $5.30 | 18.9% | 0.2% |
Orora (ORA) | JP Morgan | Overweight | $2.85 | $2.40 | 18.8% | 8.4% |
Downer EDI (DOW) | Macquarie | Neutral | $5.77 | $4.86 | 18.7% | 7.1% |
Downer EDI (DOW) | UBS | Neutral | $5.75 | $4.90 | 17.3% | 6.7% |
GPT Group (GPT) | Morgan Stanley | Overweight | $5.60 | $4.80 | 16.7% | 11.3% |
De Grey Mining (DEG) | Macquarie | Outperform | $2.10 | $1.80 | 16.7% | 55.6% |
Northern Star Resources (NST) | JP Morgan | Overweight | $16.80 | $14.50 | 15.9% | 4.7% |
Capricorn Metals (CMM) | Macquarie | Outperform | $7.20 | $6.30 | 14.3% | 14.5% |
Downer EDI (DOW) | CLSA | Hold | $5.35 | $4.70 | 13.8% | -0.7% |
Australian Finance Group (AFG) | Citi | Neutral | $1.65 | $1.45 | 13.8% | 5.8% |
Australian Finance Group (AFG) | Citi | Neutral | $1.65 | $1.45 | 13.8% | 5.8% |
ARB Corporation (ARB) | Morgan Stanley | Overweight | $46.00 | $40.50 | 13.6% | 0.9% |
Aristocrat Leisure (ALL) | Ord Minnett | Accumulate | $59.00 | $52.00 | 13.5% | 3.5% |
Resmed Inc (RMD) | Ord Minnett | Accumulate | $39.00 | $34.40 | 13.4% | 9.2% |
Orora (ORA) | Ord Minnett | Hold | $2.60 | $2.30 | 13.0% | -1.1% |
Guzman Y Gomez (GYG) | UBS | Sell | $35.00 | $31.00 | 12.9% | -11.5% |
Genesis Minerals (GMD) | Macquarie | Outperform | $2.70 | $2.40 | 12.5% | 28.0% |
Conrad Asia Energy (CRD) | Bell Potter | Buy | $1.90 | $1.70 | 11.8% | 71.2% |
Northern Star Resources (NST) | Macquarie | Outperform | $19.00 | $17.00 | 11.8% | 18.4% |
Supply Network (SNL) | Goldman Sachs | Buy | $30.50 | $27.40 | 11.3% | 4.5% |
Gold Road Resources (GOR) | Macquarie | Outperform | $2.10 | $1.90 | 10.5% | 25.4% |
Carnarvon Energy (CVN) | JP Morgan | Overweight | $0.21 | $0.19 | 10.5% | 40.0% |
IDP Education (IEL) | Morgan Stanley | Overweight | $21.50 | $19.50 | 10.3% | 40.0% |
Accent Group (AX1) | Morgan Stanley | Overweight | $2.75 | $2.50 | 10.0% | 18.0% |
September broker price target increase >10%
With this table and the next, one should consider both the magnitude of the price target change, but possibly more importantly, the upside the broker making the change still sees in the stock. It is also reassuring if the broker has a buy-equivalent rating.
RBC Capital Market’s massive 114% increase in Regis Healthcare’s (ASX: REG) price target to $7.50 from $3.50 is impressive, but this means the broker still sees another 21.8% upside based upon yesterday’s closing price. RBC maintained an OUTPERFORM rating on the stock.
Other stocks to do well in this table include:
Motorcycle Holdings (ASX: MTO): Morgans ADD | +57.1% PT | +36.2% Upside and Moelis Australia BUY | +20.3% PT | +46.7% Upside
Austal (ASX: ASB): Citi BUY | +33.5% PT | +36.2% Upside
Peoplein (ASX: PPE): Wilsons OVERWEIGHT | +20.4% PT | +68.6% Upside
De Grey Mining (ASX: DEG): Macquarie OUTPERFORM | +16.7% PT | +55.6% Upside
Genesis Minerals (ASX: GMD): Macquarie OUTPERFORM | +12.5% PT | +28% Upside
Conrad Asia Energy Ltd. (ASX: CRD): Bell Potter BUY | +11.8% PT | +71.2% Upside
Carnarvon Energy (ASX: CVN): JP Morgan OVERWEIGHT | +10.5% PT | +40.0% Upside
IDP Education (ASX: IEL): Morgan Stanley | OVERWEIGHT | +10.3% PT | +40.0% Upside
Price target cuts >10%
Company | Broker | Rating | New PT | Old PT | PT Change% | PT Upside% |
Dreadnought Resources (DRE) | Bell Potter | Hold | $0.02 | $0.15 | -86.7% | 33.3% |
Genmin (GEN) | Bell Potter | Hold | $0.09 | $0.48 | -81.3% | 50.0% |
Radiopharm Theranostics (RAD) | Bell Potter | Buy | $0.07 | $0.25 | -72.0% | 125.8% |
S2 Resources (S2R) | Bell Potter | Hold | $0.10 | $0.24 | -58.3% | 25.0% |
Proteomics International Labs (PIQ) | Morgans | Reduce | $0.50 | $0.99 | -49.5% | -28.6% |
Nexted Group (NXD) | Ord Minnett | Buy | $0.30 | $0.50 | -40.0% | 172.7% |
Johns Lyng Group (JLG) | Morgan Stanley | Overweight | $4.40 | $7.20 | -38.9% | 28.7% |
Impedimed (IPD) | Canaccord Genuity | Buy | $0.09 | $0.14 | -35.7% | 45.2% |
Bellevue Gold (BGL) | UBS | Buy | $1.45 | $2.25 | -35.6% | 16.9% |
Jupiter Mines (JMS) | Macquarie | Outperform | $0.22 | $0.34 | -35.3% | 41.9% |
Patriot Battery Metals Inc. (PMT) | UBS | Buy | $0.65 | $1.00 | -35.0% | 85.7% |
Southern Cross Media (SXL) | Morgan Stanley | Underweight | $0.50 | $0.75 | -33.3% | 6.4% |
Imugene (IMU) | Bell Potter | Buy | $0.10 | $0.15 | -33.3% | 104.1% |
4DMEDICAL (4DX) | Bell Potter | Buy | $0.75 | $1.10 | -31.8% | 66.7% |
Liontown Resources (LTR) | Macquarie | Neutral | $0.70 | $1.00 | -30.0% | 11.1% |
Paladin Energy (PDN) | Morgan Stanley | Overweight | $12.00 | $16.65 | -27.9% | 21.7% |
Piedmont Lithium Inc. (PLL) | Macquarie | Neutral | $0.11 | $0.15 | -26.7% | 4.8% |
Mineral Resources (MIN) | Morgans | Hold | $39.00 | $53.00 | -26.4% | 6.1% |
Curvebeam AI (CVB) | Bell Potter | Buy | $0.26 | $0.35 | -25.7% | 52.9% |
Atlantic Lithium (A11) | Macquarie | Outperform | $0.30 | $0.40 | -25.0% | 20.0% |
Imexhs (IME) | Morgans | Buy | $1.15 | $1.50 | -23.3% | -92.5% |
Cettire (CTT) | Bell Potter | Buy | $2.00 | $2.60 | -23.1% | 50.4% |
Arcadium Lithium (LTM) | Macquarie | Outperform | $5.10 | $6.60 | -22.7% | 38.2% |
Patriot Battery Metals Inc. (PMT) | Macquarie | Outperform | $0.70 | $0.90 | -22.2% | 100.0% |
DGL Group (DGL) | UBS | Neutral | $0.59 | $0.75 | -21.3% | 25.5% |
Mount Gibson Iron (MGX) | Macquarie | Outperform | $0.38 | $0.48 | -20.8% | 31.0% |
Ramsay Health Care (RHC) | Morgans | Hold | $44.77 | $56.54 | -20.8% | 10.5% |
Liontown Resources (LTR) | UBS | Sell | $0.70 | $0.85 | -17.6% | 11.1% |
Mineral Resources (MIN) | Bell Potter | Buy | $66.00 | $80.00 | -17.5% | 79.5% |
Global Lithium Resources (GL1) | Macquarie | Neutral | $0.21 | $0.25 | -16.0% | 20.0% |
Nickel Industries (NIC) | Macquarie | Outperform | $0.95 | $1.13 | -15.9% | 13.1% |
Jumbo Interactive (JIN) | Macquarie | Neutral | $14.75 | $17.45 | -15.5% | 12.2% |
DGL Group (DGL) | Bell Potter | Hold | $0.55 | $0.65 | -15.4% | 17.0% |
DGL Group (DGL) | Morgans | Hold | $0.55 | $0.65 | -15.4% | 17.0% |
Ramsay Health Care (RHC) | RBC Capital Markets | Sector Perform | $52.00 | $61.00 | -14.8% | 28.4% |
Coronado Global Resources (CRN) | Macquarie | Outperform | $1.80 | $2.10 | -14.3% | 82.7% |
Ramsay Health Care (RHC) | JP Morgan | Neutral | $43.00 | $50.00 | -14.0% | 6.1% |
Michael Hill International (MHJ) | Citi | Neutral | $0.57 | $0.66 | -13.6% | 20.0% |
Platinum Asset Management (PTM) | UBS | Sell | $0.91 | $1.05 | -13.3% | -17.3% |
Fineos Corporation (FCL) | Goldman Sachs | Neutral | $1.65 | $1.90 | -13.2% | 19.1% |
4DMEDICAL (4DX) | Ord Minnett | Buy | $1.05 | $1.20 | -12.5% | 133.3% |
Alcidion Group (ALC) | Bell Potter | Hold | $0.07 | $0.08 | -12.5% | 25.0% |
Webjet (WEB) | Macquarie | Neutral | $8.72 | $9.95 | -12.4% | 18.6% |
Ramsay Health Care (RHC) | Citi | Neutral | $44.00 | $50.00 | -12.0% | 8.6% |
Ramsay Health Care (RHC) | Jarden | Neutral | $48.22 | $54.47 | -11.5% | 19.0% |
Core Lithium (CXO) | Macquarie | Neutral | $0.09 | $0.10 | -10.0% | -5.3% |
September broker price target cuts >10%
Finally, stocks in the sin bin. In most cases we’re looking at brokers catching up to large share price declines. Bell Potter is prominent with the top four biggest price target cuts. A quick look at the charts of Dreadnought Resources (ASX: DRE), Genmin (ASX: GEN), Radiopharm Theranostics (ASX: RAD), S2 Resources (ASX: S2R) all show devastating share price declines over the last 12 months. Interestingly though, Bell Potter remains quite optimistic about each making some sort of share price recovery from here, with price target upsides in excess of 25% across the four. The broker has RAD rated at BUY (+126% upside), while the others remain rated at HOLD.
Other notable “catch up cuts” can be found across the ASX lithium sector – share prices have been decimated there – but also in serial underperformer Ramsay Health Care (ASX: RHC). RHC’s share price is down nearly 30% since March, and this has resulted in it achieving the dubious honour of logging the most broker price target cuts over 10% (five in total). Interestingly, the brokers are all still neutral-equivalent rated on the stock, and among those five brokers, the average price target upside for RHC is +14.5%.
I hope you enjoyed this deep dive into the biggest broker moves for ASX companies over the past few weeks. We’ll revert to the usual weekly update from here – so stay tuned!
Carl has over 30-years investing experience, helping investors navigate several bull and bear markets over this time. He is a well respected markets commentator who specialises in how the global macro impacts Australian and US equities. Carl has a passion for technical analysis and has taught his unique brand of price-action trend following to thousands of Aussie investors.
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