ASX 200 Live Today - Thursday, 29th January

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Thursday, January 29. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.

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ASX 200 slumps, Tech stocks at two-year lows

[2:18 pm] ASX 200 down 0.53%, off session lows of -0.84%. Breadth is fairly poor, with nine out of eleven sectors in red and 151 constituents trading lower (76%). Tech is getting interesting, down 1.5% today, undercutting recent lows to trade at the lowest level since 21 February, 2024. Plenty of names continue to get obliterated, with Wisetech and Xero both down ~50% in the past twelve months, and NextDC, TechnologyOne, SiteMinder and Catapult now all down 5-10% over the same time period. Materials experiencing a slight pullback today, but off session lows of -1.8%, the sector has run up pretty hard (~18% away from 200-day) so volatility is expected despite still-soaring commodity prices. Overall, seeing a defensive shift today, with sectors like Staples (-0.01%), Financials (-0.16%) and Utilities (-0.17%) outperforming on a relative basis, while risk-oriented pockets of the market (e.g. XEC down 2.0%) lag. Just need to see where the dust settles, and whether the broader index will find some support off the 20-day/continue to make a higher high.

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Woodside target price cut despite solid Q4

[1:30 pm] Woodside reported a solid December quarter result, with stronger-than-expected oil production from Sangomar and Mad Dog. However, 2026 production outlook missed consensus, alongside rising capex and D&A.

• UBS maintained neutral, lowered target from $23.50 to $23.10. Near-term EPS lifted by stronger Q4 oil output, but faster Sangomar decline, LNG trading losses, and FY26 downgrades offset earlier upgrades.

• Macquarie maintained neutral, target $25.00. Sangomar beat near term but is now declining, Scarborough LNG timing pushed back, dividends improve, yet valuation looks stretched versus peers.

• Goldman Sachs maintained neutral, lowered target from $23.30 to $22.50. FY25 upgrades were offset by FY26 cuts from Sangomar volume resets, higher trading costs, with Scarborough still key for long-term upside.

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Uranium stocks mostly higher

[1:26 pm] A few explorers/developers trading sharply higher as uranium prices rallied to US$98/lb on Thursday, the highest since February 2024. Though some larger cap names are struggling for upside, with Paladin Energy trading flat after a 46% year-to-date rally.

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Analysts upbeat on the ASX

[12:18 pm] The exchange operator reported a mixed preliminary 1H26 result on Wednesday, where revenue and earnings beat consensus expectations, offset by a material increase in its FY26 cost guidance. Analysts were generally upbeat on the result, with the view that current valuations already price in such regulatory and cost risks. The stock finished slightly lower on Wednesday and trading 4.4% higher today.

• JPMorgan upgraded to overweight from neutral, raised target from $60 to $62. Views H1 results positively, interprets higher FY26 expense guidance as a structural reset, and cites valuation support and potential future fee increases.

• Goldman Sachs maintained neutral, target $57. NPAT exceeded expectations on strong trading and clearing, but cautions on FY26 expense growth in 2H and regulatory/execution risks around CHESS replacement.

• UBS maintained neutral, raised target from $54.85 to $55.75. Notes accelerated ASIC response lifting costs, strong revenues offsetting expenses in FY26, and sees easing regulatory risk as supportive.

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MP Materials denies US price floor retreat

[12:16 pm] MP Materials has rejected reports suggesting the US government is stepping back from supporting critical minerals projects, confirming its existing agreements remain unchanged.

• Statement calls Reuters report “inaccurate, misleading, and inconsistent with the facts”

• Confirms binding, long-term Price Protection Agreement with the US Department of War remains fully in force

• Stresses no change to government obligations or MP’s contract

• Reiterates commitment to restoring a secure and resilient US rare earth supply chain

Local rare earth stocks have bounced off intraday lows, but still red for the day (e.g. Lynas off session lows of -11.6%, currently down -7.8%).

Source: X

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US abandons price floor for critical minerals projects

[11:29 am] Reuters has flagged that the US government is stepping back from plans to guarantee minimum prices for domestic critical minerals projects, citing legal and funding constraints.

• Two senior Trump administration officials informed US minerals executives that projects must demonstrate financial viability without government price support

• Concerns arose after a price floor granted last year to MP Materials (~$110/kg for two rare earths) highlighted that Congress had not authorised such funding

• Administration acknowledged it lacked legal authority to fund a price floor, ending plans to extend similar guarantees to other projects

Local rare earth stocks are trading sharply lower, with notably declines from Dateline Resources (-14.8%), Lynas (-9.3%), Arafura (-6.7%) and more.

Source: Reuters

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ASX 200 lower as post-CPI selloff continues, miners pullback

[11:06 am] Fairly heavy session today, with the ASX 200 currently down 0.60%, with a mix of consumer-facing and risk-sensitive sectors like Staples (-0.90%), Discretionary (-0.80%) and Tech (-0.7%) leading the downside move. The resource sector is also pulling back from Wednesday's record high, with sub-sectors like iron ore, lithium, rare earths and nickel trading lower. We're now left with a situation where the key drivers of CPI are mostly outside the RBA's control, but the central bank may have no choice but to hike anyway, forcing down what it can influence to offset those inflation pressures.

ASX 200 sectors (Source: Market Index)

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Ora Banda tumbles 9pc

[11:01 am] Ora Banda somehow opened 0.9% higher but spent the entire morning trending lower, currently down 9.4% ($1.51). The company reported a poor Q2 result and guidance, as we noted pre-market:

• Q2 gold production 32.0koz vs. ests 37.0koz (14% miss)

• Revenue from gold and silver sales up 15% quarter-on-quarter to $189m

• AISC rose to A$3,505/oz vs. ests A$2,926/oz (20% miss)

• AISC spike driven by more tonnage processed via higher-cost third-party milling

• FY26 production guidance reaffirmed at 140-155koz, but likely at lower end

• FY26 AISC now expected to be A$3,250-3,350/oz vs. prior A$2,800-2,900/oz guidance, so a 15.8% increase at the midpoint

More broadly speaking, what you don't want to see from trading updates/earnings is a lose-lose combo of weaker-than-expected earnings, margins, dividends and costs for the current period plus a guidance miss/downgrade.

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Top ASX 200 gainers and losers

[10:24 am] Uranium stocks trading broadly higher, in-line with how US-listed peers traded overnight. Whitehaven coal rallying off the back of a stronger-than-expected quarterly, a few large cap goldies also higher as bullion rallies past US$5,400/oz. Meanwhile, Iluka and Ora Banda sold off on weaker-than-expected quarterlies.

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LG Energy converts notes into Liontown equity

[10:13 am] LG Energy Solution will convert its $250 million convertible note into Liontown shares, lifting its ownership to approximately 8% of the company.

• Conversion of $250m note into equity at $1.62 per share (adjusted from original $1.80 after August 2025 capital raising)

• Shares to be issued within five business days

• This convertible notes deal was announced back in July 2024, when Liontown was trading around 90 cents (vs. $2.00 now)

Liontown shares are down 3.2% to $2.07 in early trade.

Company page: Liontown Resources (LTR)

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Galan Lithium raises $40 million

[10:06 am] Galan Lithium has confirmed a placement to expand production and exploration at its flagship HMW project, with directors also committing to a small additional subscription.

• Placement of $40 million at 41 cents per share (~14.5% discount to last close of 47 cents)

• Directors committed to subscribe for an additional $1 million, subject to shareholder approval

• Proceeds to expand HMW production from 4ktpa LCE to 5.2ktpa LCE, fund exploration at Greenbushes South, and support working capital

Galan Lithium shares opened 12% lower to 41 cents this morning.

Company page: Galan Lithium (GLN)

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Perpetual Q2 AUM declines on outflows

[9:59 am] Perpetual reported a decline in Q2 AUM due to net outflows, while expenses and impairments remain under control and FY26 guidance unchanged.

• Q2 AUM down 1.9% quarter-on-quarter to $227.5bn, reflecting $7.8bn of outflows

• 1H26 total expense growth expected to be below current FY26 guidance

• Significant items (post-tax) of $54–63m but no impairments expected

• FY26 total expensive growth tracking positively against 2–3% guidance

Company page: Perpetual (PPT)

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Whitehaven Coal Q2 production beats expectations

[9:52 am] Whitehaven Coal reported higher-than-expected Q2 ROM and saleable coal production, with unit costs at the low end of guidance and FY26 outlook unchanged.

• Managed ROM coal production 11.0Mt vs. 9.88Mt ests (11% beat)

  • Maules Creek 2.61Mt vs. 2.83Mt (8% miss)

  • Narrabri 1.83Mt vs. 1.47Mt (24% beat)

  • Gunnedah 0.93Mt vs. 0.87Mt (7% beat)

  • Blackwater 4.01Mt vs. 3.53Mt (14% beat)

  • Daunia 1.61Mt vs. 1.50Mt (7% beat)

• Managed saleable coal production 8.68Mt vs. 8.12Mt (7% beat)

• Total managed coal sales up 10% quarter-on-quarter to 8.75Mt

• Unit cost of production for Q2 at low end of FY26 guidance, first half FY26 unit cost at ~A$135/t

Management commentary: “New South Wales ROM production of 5.4Mt for the quarter included strong volumes from Narrabri, while Queensland contributed 5.6Mt with both Daunia and Blackwater capitalising on good weather and mining conditions."

FY26 guidance unchanged, with ROM production of 37–41Mt, at unit cost of A$130–145/t and Capex between $340–440 million.

Company page: Whitehaven Coal (WHC)

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Lotus Resources adjusts uranium production ramp-up forecast

[9:49 am] Lotus Resources has adjusted its forecast for achieving steady-state uranium production at Kayelekera, citing ongoing acid supply constraints that are affecting the broader sector.

• Full-month steady-state production of ~200,000lbs/month (~2.4Mlbpa) now expected in Q2 CY26 vs. prior Q1 CY26 guidance

• Ramp-up supported by a substantial schedule of acid deliveries, which should alleviate previous supply issues.

• Major uranium producers like Kazatomprom have cut or adjusted production forecasts partly due to uncertainty around sulphuric acid availability

Company page: Lotus Resources (LOT)

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Capricorn Metals Q2 gold sales in line, AISC below expectations

[9:47 am] Capricorn’s Q2 gold production and sales was largely in-line with market expectations, with lower-than-expected costs supporting strong margins.

• Gold sold 31.7koz vs. market expectations 31.4koz (1% beat)

• Gold production 30.5koz (previously reported)

• AISC of A$1,627/oz vs. A$1,719/oz ests (5% beat)

• Average realised gold price of A$6,333/oz

• FY26 guidance unchanged, with gold production of 115–125koz (targeting upper end), AISC A$1,530–1,630/oz

Company page: Capricorn Metals (CMM)

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MinRes Q2 iron ore and lithium shipments beat expectations

[9:45 am] Mineral Resources reported higher-than-expected iron ore and spodumene shipments, with realised prices mixed and full-year guidance unchanged for iron ore and upgraded for lithium.

• Attributable iron ore shipments 7.2 Mwmt vs. 7.0 Mwmt ests (3% beat)

• Iron ore realised price $91/dmt (~A$129) vs. $93/dmt (~A$132) ests (2% miss)

• Total spodumene shipments 166kt vs. market expectations 123kt (35% beat)

  • Mt Marion 67kt vs. 63kt ests (6% beat), SC6 realised price $1,042/dmt vs. $714 ests (46% beat)

  • Wodgina 76kt vs. 64kt (19% beat), SC6 realised price $1,140/dmt vs. $942 ests (21% beat)

FY Guidance:

• Onslow Iron shipped volumes unchanged at 17.1–18.8 Mt and FOB cost to track towards the lower end of A$54–59/wmt guidance

• Lithium Wodgina upgraded to 260–280 Kt SC6 vs prior 220–240 Kt, FOB A$730–800/t

• Lithium Mt Marion upgraded to 190–210 Kt SC6 vs prior 160–180 Kt, FOB A$820–890/t

Company page: Mineral Resources (MIN)

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Alpha HPA halted ahead of equity raise

[9:38 am] Alpha HPA has requested a trading halt this morning, pending an announcement regarding a material equity raising to fund delivery and commercialisation of the Stage 2 HPA First Project.

The company expects to resume trading on Monday, 2 February.

A 2024 DFS for Stage 2 highlighted annual steady-state EBITDA of $255-403 million, with capex of $553 million and an estimated payback period of 3.7 years.

Company page: Alpha HPA (A4N)

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IGO Q2 spodumene production steady, nickel mixed

[9:36 am] IGO’s Q2 saw Greenbushes spodumene recover after a weak start to the year, Nova nickel production beat expectations while copper slightly lagged.

• Spodumene production up 10% quarter-on-quarter to 352kt and in-line with market expectations

• Spodumene cash costs down 4% quarter-on-quarter to A$373/t

• Nova nickel production of 3.8kt vs. 3.5kt ests (9% beat)

• Nova copper at 1.78kt vs. 1.85kt (4% miss)

• Sales revenue and underlying EBITDA of $82.4m and $29.9m respectively

• FY26 guidance reaffirmed: Spodumene 1,500–1,650kt at cash costs of A$310–360/t, Nova nickel 15–18kt and copper 8,250–9,250t

Management commentary: Greenbushes ramped production after Q1 weather and grade impacts, with CGP3 construction completed and first ore processed. Nova operations focus on safety, stable production, cost management, and continue generating positive free cash. Kwinana refinery remains high-cost with limited return potential despite higher production and lithium hydroxide prices.

Company page: IGO (IGO)

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Perseus Mining Q2 gold production misses expectations

[9:35 am] Perseus’ Q2 gold output fell short of market expectations, with all-in sustaining costs above consensus.

• Q2 gold production 88.9koz vs. 101.4koz est (12% miss)

• AISC A$1,800/oz vs. A$1,626/oz ests (11% miss)

• Cash and bullion of US$755m

FY26 production guidance remains unchanged at 400-440koz, but AISC guidance hiked to US$1,600-1,760/oz vs. prior US$1,460-1,620/oz, representing a 9.1% increase at the midpoint. The company attributed this to " increased gold price assumptions and increased royalties in Côte d’Ivoire under negotiation with the government."

Company page: Perseus Mining (PRU)

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Ora Banda Q2 gold production below estimates

[9:30 am] Ora Banda’s December quarter saw solid revenue growth but gold output missed market expectations, with higher costs linked to third-party processing.

• Q2 gold production 32.0koz vs. ests 37.0koz (14% miss)

• Revenue from gold and silver sales up 15% quarter-on-quarter to $189m

• AISC rose to A$3,505/oz vs. ests A$2,926/oz (20% miss)

• AISC spike driven by more tonnage processed via higher-cost third-party milling

FY26 production guidance reaffirmed at 140-155koz, but likely at lower end. AISC now expected to be A$3,250-3,350/oz vs. prior A$2,800-2,900/oz guidance, so a 15.8% increase at the midpoint. Growth capital guidance for FY26 also up 66% from $86 million to $143 million.

Overall, pretty ugly result on all fronts, with a Q2 production and cost miss, expectations of a strong second half to meet lower end of FY26 guidance, ballooning costs and higher capex. Wouldn't be surprised to see a gap down, but maybe the rising gold price offsets some of these operational misses?

Company page: Ora Banda Mining (OBM)

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Iluka Resources posts higher production, flags impairments

[9:25 am] Iluka Resources delivered strong Q4 zircon/rutile/synthetic rutile production, with full-year figures tracking above some analyst expectations. However, booked a sizeable non-cash impairment and a mixed resource update.

• Q4 Z/R/SR production up 19.7% year-on-year to 154.9kt

• Full-year Z/R/SR production of 559.1kt vs. Macquarie ests of 473kt (18% beat)

• WIM100 Mineral Resource now totals 540Mt at 4.6% heavy minerals (HM), giving 25Mt of HM. This represents a 19% increase in total HM, with Measured HM up 8% and Indicated HM up 53%

• Non-cash mineral sands impairment of ~$350M pre-tax mainly relates to Cataby mine, synthetic rutile kilns 1 and 2, and South West WA project studies.

• Cataby Ore Reserve reduced by ~35%, cutting Group Ore Reserves by ~7%, with revised mine life of four years from mining resumption

• Inventory write-downs of ~$215M pre-tax due to lower net realisable value prompted by price expectations

• FY25 underlying mineral sands EBITDA expected around $300m

Company page: Iluka Resources (ILU)

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Microsoft shares dip on capex concerns

[9:18 am] Microsoft's Q2 results beat market revenue and EPS expectations, however, relatively in-line Azure growth and another blowout capex result is weighing on the share price. The stock is currently down 4.4% after hours. Most of the capex jump reflects GenAI spending, the $29.8 bill capex figure below represents a 57% increase vs. the prior quarter.

• Revenue up 17% to $81.27 bn vs. $80.31 bn ests (1.2% beat)

• EPS up 60% to $5.16

• Capex $29.88 bn vs. $23.78 bn ests (25.7% above ests)

• Intelligent Cloud up 29% to $32.91 bn vs. $32.39 bn ests (1.6% beat)

• Azure & Other Cloud (ex-FX) up 38% vs. >38% ests (in-line)

• Microsoft Cloud up 26% to $51.5 bn

• Commercial RPO up 110% to $625 bn

Management commentary:

• “We are only at the beginning phases of AI diffusion and already Microsoft has built an AI business that is larger than some of our biggest franchises."

• “We are pushing the frontier across our entire AI stack to drive new value for our customers and partners."

• “Microsoft Cloud revenue crossed $50 billion this quarter, reflecting the strong demand for our portfolio of services."

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Meta surges on broad Q4 beat

[9:12 am] Meta shares are currently up 9.5% after hours after topping Q4 earnings expectations and providing a better-than-expected guidance.

• Revenue up 24% to $59.89 bn vs. $58.42 bn ests (2.5% beat)

• EPS up 11% to $8.88 vs. $8.19 ests (8.4% beat)

• Daily Active People up 7% to 3.58bn

• Ad impressions up 18% year-on-year, average price per ad up 6%

Guide:

• Q1 Revenue $53.5 bn–$56.5 bn vs. $51.27 bn ests (4.2%–10.2% beat)

• FY26 CapEx $115 bn–$135 bn vs. $110.62 bn ests (4.1% above)

Management commentary:

• "I’m looking forward to advancing personal superintelligence for people around the world in 2026.”

• “Despite the meaningful step up in infrastructure investment, in 2026 we expect to deliver operating income that is above 2025 operating income.”

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Busy day for S&P 500 earnings

[9:06 am] The volume of reporters is picking up. High-profile names of interest include:

• ASML: Record bookings nearly double consensus expectations, though 2026 margin guidance was slightly below estimates due to product mix, Nasdaq-listed shares closed 2% lower.

• Texas Instruments: Shares rallied 9.9% after guiding Q1 above expectations, noting improving linearity, rising backlog, and a broad-based industrial rebound.

• AT&T: Shares jumped 4.6% on strong Business Wireline results and a boosted buyback, topping Q4 earnings and revenue estimates amid positive sector signals.

• Starbucks: Shares briefly rallied 9.5% but closed flat after EPS miss, with comps up on higher transactions driving 4% global comparable store sales growth.

• Seagate: Shares surged 19% to record highs and now up 52% YTD after a beat and raise, driven by strong hyperscaler demand and capacity constraints fueling AI-led storage growth.

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Oil options price in Iran risk premium

[8:59 am] Oil traders are crowding into bullish options as geopolitical risk around Iran intensifies, pushing call premiums to their longest sustained stretch in over a year.

• Brent has shown a bullish call skew for 14 straight sessions and WTI for 13, the longest run since late 2024 when Israel struck Iranian military targets.

• Open interest in Brent call options is rising at the fastest pace in at least six years, following the busiest ever single day of Brent call trading earlier this month, highlighting aggressive hedging against price spikes.

• Hedge funds lifted net-bullish crude positions to the highest level since August, while oil volatility gauges have climbed to multi-month highs, reinforcing that risk pricing is broad-based, not just in options.

• Markets are reacting to escalating unrest in Iran and US warnings, with President Trump citing a “big armada” moving to the Middle East, even as he said he hoped force would not be used.

• Supply risk is material, with Iran producing about 3.3m barrels a day, and Rapidan Energy lifting the probability of major Gulf flow disruption from 15% to 20% if retaliation follows any US action.

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Fed holds rates steady and signals more cautious approach

[8:56 am] The Federal Reserve left the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% and upgraded its view of the economy and labour market, signalling a more cautious approach to future adjustments.

• The Federal Open Market Committee voted 10-2 to hold rates, with dissenters Waller and Miran favoured a 25bps cut

• Labour market showing signs of stabilisation: Unemployment at 4.4% in December, non-farm payrolls down an average of 22k per month over the last three months, hiring and firing slowed

• Inflation remains somewhat elevated: PCE up 2.9% year-on-year, core PCE up 3.0% excluding food, goods inflation lifted by tariffs, disinflation continuing in services

• Fed removed previous language highlighting rising downside employment risks and now notes economic activity “expanding at a solid pace”

• Rate cuts likely pushed back: Futures show slightly reduced odds for near-term reductions, with the first potential cut expected by July, decisions remain meeting-by-meeting

• Fed committed to maximum employment and a 2% inflation goal, with policy currently at the higher end of neutral, short-term inflation expectations down, longer-term expectations steady

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Bank of Canada holds, flags US-driven uncertainty

[8:51 am] The Bank of Canada left rates unchanged but warned that volatile US trade and political policy has made the outlook unusually uncertain, with no clear signal on whether the next move is a hike or cut.

• Rates held at 2.25% for a second straight meeting, in-line with expectations, with Governor Tiff Macklem saying it is “difficult to predict the timing or direction” of the next change.

• Macklem pointed to Trump administration tariffs, foreign policy and threats to Federal Reserve independence as key risks clouding Canada’s outlook and widening the range of possible economic outcomes.

• The bank said the era of rules-based US trade is effectively over, arguing Canada must adjust as USMCA review risks and tariff escalation increase structural uncertainty for growth and investment.

• New forecasts see GDP growth of 1.1% this year and 1.5% in 2027, with activity stalling in Q4 2025, though prior tariff damage was revised higher to 1.7% as the hit proved less severe than feared.

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US talks up strong dollar after Trump shock

[8:49 am] Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent moved to steady FX markets after President Trump’s comments triggered the biggest one-day dollar slide in almost a year, reinforcing a non-intervention stance while backing a fundamentals-driven currency policy.

• The US dollar rebounded after falling 1.1% the prior session, its steepest drop since April last year, sparked by Trump saying he was comfortable with a weaker currency and that the decline was “great”.

• Bessent reaffirmed a “strong dollar policy” but framed it around fundamentals, saying sound fiscal, regulatory and trade settings should attract capital flows rather than active FX intervention.

• He ruled out direct action, saying the US is “absolutely not” intervening to sell dollars against the yen, though markets remain sensitive after recent Federal Reserve Bank of New York rate checks.

• Strategists see the comments as damage control, with Bloomberg noting the tone may calm nerves but is unlikely to change the broader bearish bias in the dollar after Trump’s remarks.

US dollar price chart (Source: TradingView)

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Mega cap earnings, quarterlies and trading updates

[8:44 am] This is one of those mornings where it feels like I'm playing type racer (or Starcraft if you get the reference). Going to have a look at overnight headlines and the Fed decision first, then Microsoft and Meta earnings, and finally, the long list of resource-related quarterlies. Let's get it.

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Good morning!

[8:31 am] ASX 200 futures are up 6 pts (+0.06%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

The overnight session in a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks gave back early gains to close relatively flat

• S&P 500 crossed 7,000 for the first time before pulling back

• Gold prices continue to surge, now close to US$5,400 and up almost 25% YTD

• Fed kept interest rates unchanged, with commentary slightly hawkish but market rate cut pricing little changed

• Microsoft and Meta reported quarterly results after hours, both beat market expectations but shares moving in opposite directors after hours

To catch up on all overnight developments, check out today's Morning Wrap.