Morning Wrap: Nasdaq rallies to 12-month high + Charts of the week

Major US benchmarks are breaking out to 9-12 month highs, Walmart and Cisco beat earnings expectations and raise their full year guidance, US weekly jobless claims continues to defy recession fears and Friday's Charts of the Week.

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 rallies intraday to close at session highs (Source: TradingView)

MARKETS

• S&P 500 extends gains to close at a 9-month high

• Nasdaq 100 up 3.7% in the last four sessions to a fresh 12-month high

• US 2-year yield up ~30 bps this week, US Dollar Index rallies to near two-month high

• Bets against regional banks continues to climb with KRE short interest rising to 92% of shares outstanding (Bloomberg)

• Dallas Fed’s Logan said upcoming data could support a pause in June but as of today, does not yet justify skipping a rate hike

• Icahn admits bearish bets have cost him US$9bn (FT)

STOCKS

• Netflix ad tier has nearly 5 million monthly active users (Reuters)

• FedEx climbs on Deutsche Bank target price upgrade (CNBC)

• Meta unveils new chips, coding tools for AI (Bloomberg)

• Teva Pharma to cut back on generic drug manufacturing citing low profitability despite supply shortages (Bloomberg)

• Apple offers ChatGPT for iOS through the App Store (Axios)

• Disney cancels US$1bn investment in Florida that would have brought 2,000 jobs (NY Times)

Earnings

Walmart (+1.3%): Double beat, raised its full-year guidance but adjusted earnings guidance for the second quarter came in below expectations.

• "We had a strong quarter. Comp sales were strong globally with eCommerce up 26%. We leveraged expenses, expanded operating margin & grew profit ahead of sales.” – CEO Doug McMillon

• "Inflation remained high, up low double digits and food categories...On a two-year stack basis, food inflation remains over 20% and continues to pressure discretionary wallets.”

Cisco Systems (+1.2%): Double beat but third quarter earnings fell 23% year-on-year due to a large backlog of products and lower demand from customers, raised full-year outlook.

Alibaba (-5.4%): EPS beat, cloud revenues missed, intends to offer its proprietary AI foundation model to the wider public. 

ECONOMY

• US weekly jobless claims fall, labor market defies recession fears (Reuters)

• Debt ceiling resolution could lead US$1tn in T-bill sales, which could drain liquidity from banking system and raise short-term rates (Bloomberg)

• Economists expect Fed to hold or hike this year despite recession risk (Reuters)

• US commercial real estate prices fell in the first quarter for the first time in more than a decade (Bloomberg)

• China sees sharp increase in fiscal revenue growth in first four months of 2023 (Reuters)

• Japan imports turn negative for first time since January 2021 amid fall in commodity prices (Bloomberg)

• Australian unemployment rate unexpectedly turns higher (Reuters)

Deeper Dive: Charts of the Week

This segment of the morning wrap brings you weekly technical commentary on the ASX 200 and some of the more interesting charts in the market. These are not meant as recommendations. They are for illustrative purposes only. Any discussion of past performance is for educational purposes only. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future return. Always do your own research.

ASX 200 – Holding Pattern (still)

Source: Commsec

When I left you last week, the ASX 200 was trading at 7252. A full week later it closed yesterday at 7237. According to the boffins, there have now been 26 days straight where the ASX 200 has moved up or down (on a closing basis) by less than 1%. Things are also quiet in the US, where the VIX is getting down towards its lowest point of the year (see chart below). So, it’s quiet out there people. Perhaps a little too quiet. In any event, there is nothing doing. The index remains stuck in no-man’s-land between a major support and resistance.

S&P 500 VIX (Source: Google)

Life360 (360) – On the move

Source: Commsec

Life360 has accelerated sharply over the past month and is challenging levels not seen since October/November last year. Whilst the rise has been impressive, on much higher-than-average volumes, the RSI is showing as extremely overbought and one might expect the stock to struggle to overcome the $7 round number and likely congestion zone – highlighted by the yellow box. This is one worth having on the watchlist, however. If it can break higher, there is some clear air technically, up towards the $10 level.

Washington H Soul Pattison (SOL) – Keeps on keeping on

Source: Commsec

I have featured Soul Patts before but wanted to highlight it again. This is a perfect example of the trend being your friend. Many would baulk at a stock like this, saying it is ‘expensive’ but the reality is that it could get a lot more expensive. The price action has just broken higher again, through $32, and the momentum is clearly with the bulls. Average volume has been rising through the most recent part of the rally and it’s not particularly overcooked on the RSI. SOL is also historically a great dividend payer, which is something a lot of investors want in the current market environment.

ASX corporate actions occurring today:

• Trading ex-div: GQG Partners (GQG) – $0.021, WAM Leaders (WAM) – $0.045, US Student Housing REIT (USQ) – $0.016 

• Dividends paid: Dexus Convenience Retail REIT (DXS) – $0.054, Cromwell Property (CMW) – $0.0137, Dexus Industria REIT (DXI) – $0.041, Jupiter Mines (JMS) – $0.012 

• Listing: None

Economic calendar (AEST):

• 9:00 am: UK Consumer Confidence

• 9:30 am: Japan Inflation Rate

• 4:00 pm: Germany Producer Price Index

• 1:00 am: Fed Powell Speech