Morning Wrap: Dow extends gains, S&P 500 takes a breather, ASX set to fall

The S&P 500 begins to stall around a tricky trendline, Verizon says payment patterns continue to be very strong, Eurozone PMIs surprise and return to expansion, German consumer sentiment continues to rebound and sectors to watch today include: Yield-sensitive sectors, gold and tech.

Let's dive in.

We’re looking to simplify some of the overnight stuff – let the tables, charts and headlines do the talking. That said, I'd love to hear from you guys if you prefer this shorter style. If I start getting emails about "this absolutely sucks" then we can revert. Also, a big thank you to all the readers that reached out yesterday about the Morning Brief section.

The S&P 500 is stalling around this key trendline – that’s proven incredibly tricky to break since January 2022 (Source: TradingView)

MARKETS

• Recent strength can be attributed in part to negative sentiment and positioning dynamics, aligns with the expectation of a weak first-half

• Recession risk remains present due to factors such as the deeply inverted yield curve, decline in liquidity and Fed’s emphasis on lagging indicators

• US tech outperformance drawing concern from traders bracing for sector's worst earnings performance since 2016 (Bloomberg)

• Debt-ceiling crisis could pressure Fed to end QT program sooner (Bloomberg)

• Crude prices in many of the world's physical markets have rallied recently on more buying from China and concerns Russia could tighten supply (Reuters)

STOCKS 

A few interesting macro-related comments from company earnings via StreetAccount:

• Verizon said payment patterns continue to be very strong and not really seeing anything different from a macro perspective

• 3M said macro environment remains very fluid and uncertain and expects challenges to persist in 2023

• GE said net price cost remains positive, talked up broader restructuring and cost saving actions

• DR Horton said it expects challenging conditions to persist but noted pickup in sales activity in first few weeks of January 

ECONOMY

• Eurozone flash composite PMI surprises, pushes back into expansion (Reuters)

• German consumer sentiment up for a fourth straight month (Reuters)

• Japan factory activity falls for a third consecutive month (Reuters)

• Australian business conditions ease as inflation pressures moderate (Reuters)

Last year, I wrote an explainer for our ETF table (includes tickers). You can check it out here.

We're looking to make the Morning Brief a little sharper and focused on stimulating thoughts about the upcoming session(s) via things like technicals, stocks, broker notes and macro.

Technicals

The ASX 200's rally has truly been relentless. It's sliced through all these key price points and resistance levels with ease.

• Up 13 of the last 15 sessions

• Up 7.8% since 3 January

• Around 1.9% away from all-time highs

Amid such a V-shaped move, you have to wonder where exhaustion will kick in. Is it around this 7,500 level? Or will it magnet towards those previous all-time highs?

The 20-day moving average is also a potential area of interest and reflects the stock's short-term trend. You'll notice a lot of upward trending stocks rally, come back to the 20-day and repeat. The ASX 200 would need to fall around -2.5% to hit that 20-day.

ASX 200 (Source: TradingView)

Sectors to watch

Not a whole lot happened overnight and SPI future are pointing to a -0.14% fall. If I had to highlight some of the less dull stuff:

Yield-sensitive sectors: The US 10-year Treasury Yield eased overnight after a three day bounce. The S&P 500 saw yield-sensitive sectors like Industrials, Utilities and Real Estate lead to the upside. This also supported the outperformance of the blue-chip Dow, that finished the session up 0.3%.

US 10-year yield (Source: TradingView)

Gold: Spot prices rose 0.35% overnight to a fresh nine month high of US$1,937. Several gold names managed to catch a bid on Tuesday, with notable movers including Ramelius Resources, Newcrest Mining and Evolution Mining.

Tech: Not so much to do with overnight performance but the local tech index (I'm using the ATEC ETF) is trying to work through those October and December lows. On Tuesday, it closed above the 200-day moving average for the first time since January 2022. It's still in a downtrend but does this reflect a) the bottoming of tech and b) a change of character?

Betashares Atech ETF (Source: TradingView)

Food for thought

Breadth thrust: Approximately 61% of S&P 500 stocks have crossed their 200-day moving averages, the highest reading in over a year. "Coming off the December 2018 and March 2020 lows, 10 or more sectors ultimately went on to make golden cross signals. So far, that number has only risen to six, with Growth sectors of Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Communication Services notably missing from the list," said Rob Anderson from Ned Davis Research.

ASX corporate actions occurring today:

• Trading ex-div: None 

• Dividends paid: Eildon Capital (EDC) 

• Listing: None

Economic calendar:

• 11:30 am: Australia inflation rate

• 8:00 pm: Germany business climate index

• 2:00 am: Canada interest rate decision