Morning Wrap: ASX to rise, S&P 500 slips on mixed Middle East signals, oil higher

ASX 200 futures are up 51 pts (+0.60%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

In a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks all lower on mixed signals around Iran war

• Middle East conflict continuing to create uncertainty around conflicting headlines regarding negotiations

• Gold rebounded from earlier losses but remained in bear market territory, oil pushed marginally higher

Let's dive in.

Overnight Summary

Wed 25 Mar 26, 8:24am (AEST)

Name	Value	% Chg
Major Indices
S&P 500	6,556	-0.37%
Dow Jones	46,124	-0.18%
NASDAQ Comp	21,762	-0.84%
Russell 2000	2,505	+0.45%
Country Indices
Canada	31,942	+0.18%
China	3,881	+1.78%
Germany	22,637	-0.07%
Hong Kong	25,064	+2.79%
India	74,068	+1.89%
Japan	52,252	+1.43%
United Kingdom	9,965	+0.72%

Name	Value	% Chg
Commodities (USD)
Gold	4,474.73	+1.51%
Copper	5.5	+1.07%
WTI Oil	88.39	+0.31%
Currency
AUD/USD	0.699	-0.09%
Cryptocurrency
Bitcoin (USD)	70,139	-1.09%
Ethereum (AUD)	3,074	-0.55%
Miscellaneous
US 10 Yr T-bond	4.392	+1.34%
VIX	26.95	+3.06%

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 lower, off best levels (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks lower, with Dow, S&P and Nasdaq all losing ground

• Traders made crude oil bets worth $580M roughly 15 minutes before Trump's post about talks with Iran sent prices tumbling (FT)

• US equities hold up better than global rivals, for now (RT)

• Big banks navigate risks and opportunities as private credit funds face software exposure challenges (MSN)

• Bond yields backed up notably, initially attributed to an oil price bounce but worsened by inflationary signals in the March flash PMIs and a weak 2-year note auction

ENERGY

• Bahrain seeks UN resolution for shipping protection in Strait of Hormuz; faces veto risks (RT)

• Energy executives express concerns at CERAWeek about Iran war's impact on oil and gas supplies (BBG)

• Attacks on energy infrastructure in the Persian Gulf risk prolonged global economic damage (NYT)

• Japan PM Takaichi says will utilise joint oil stockpiles by March to counter Middle East supply losses (RT)

• Valero Energy Corp halts Port Arthur refinery operations after diesel hydrotreating unit explosion (RT)

IRAN

• Trump's reprieve offer came after US and Gulf allies warned about dangers of striking Iran's energy sites (MSN)

• Iran launches waves of missiles into Israel, continues to dismiss Trump's negotiation claims (RT)

• US official says strikes on Iran to resume, five-day pause applies only to energy sites (SFR)

• Gulf states nearing decision to join fight against Iran following relentless missile and drone attacks (MSN)

• Sources say US not planning immediate military action to reopen Strait of Hormuz, weighing risks (JP)

• US intelligence reports indicate over a dozen Iranian mines in the Strait of Hormuz (CBS )

• US weighs Iran's parliamentary speaker Mohammad ⁠Bagher Ghalibaf as potential partner and US-backed leader of Iran (PTO)

• Witkoff said to have travelled to Pakistan in hope for in-person de-escalation talks with Iran (LT)

STOCKS

• Nvidia's new server rack to run AI chips from rival makers (TIN)

• Meta hires founders and executives of AI startup Dreamer to work on AI agents at Meta Superintelligence Labs (BBG)

• Broadcom highlights TSMC capacity limits and broader supply chain bottlenecks impacting AI chip production (RT)

• Apple to hold WWDC from 8-12 Jun, says it will unveil AI features (BBG)

• OpenAI reverses shopping plans, posing challenges for enterprise playbooks (TIN)

• SoftBank's pledge to invest $30B in OpenAI could see it breach self-imposed borrowing limit (FT)

• SK Hynix plans to acquire $8B in ASML EUV equipment to strengthen HBM market position (RT)

• SK Hynix looking to raise $10B from potential US listing (BBG)

• Gilead Sciences to acquire Ouro Medicines for as much as $2.18B (BBG)

• Estee Lauder in talks with Puig Brands about merger that would create $40B luxury beauty company (RT)

• White House pays TotalEnergies $1B to abandon East Coast offshore wind leases (CNBC)

• Tesla's European sales rebound after a year-long decline, signaling renewed EV market competition (RT)

• Automakers scramble for aluminium as Gulf supply is disrupted by regional conflict (FT)

• Nintendo trims Switch 2 production after US holiday demand disappoints (BBG)

• China's tech giants flag combined $84B in AI data capex for 2027, up 60% from 2025 (NKK)

• Toyota Motor will invest further $1B in US to expand vehicle output at Kentucky, Indiana plants (BBG)

TARIFFS

• Senators urge US Commerce Department to suspend Nvidia's AI chip export licences to China, Southeast Asia (FT )

• US congressional advisory body warns China's lower cost, open-source AI is giving it competitive advantage (RT)

• China seeks strategic advantages from US challenges in Iran, aiming to shift power balance (FT)

• Beijing forum pitches China as predictable economic anchor to reassure global businesses (RT)

• FCC bans imports of new foreign-made routers, impacting China (RT)

• US Ambassador to Europe warns EU faces higher tariffs if parliament doesn't approve trade deal (BBG)

CENTRAL BANKS

• ECB's Vujcic says must stay "agile and vigilant" against rising stagflation risks from Iran war (BBG)

• RBNZ Governor Breman signals rate hike if inflation stays higher for longer (RT)

ECONOMY

• Eurozone private sector growth nearly stalls as Middle East war drives inflation surge (RT)

• Japan core inflation declines to below 2%, reflecting energy subsidies (RT)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Wed 25 Mar: Flight Centre Travel Group (FLT) – $0.12, Naos Emerging Opportunities Company (NCC) – $0.021, Perenti (PRN) – $0.033, Service Stream (SSM) – $0.03

• Thu 26 Mar: Ipd Group (IPG) – $0.068, Salter Brothers Emerging Companies (SB2) – $0.02, Tourism Holdings Rentals (THL) – $0.025

• Fri 27 Mar: Vita Life Sciences (VLS) – $0.095

Other ASX corporate actions today:       

• Dividends paid: Aurizon Holdings (AZJ), Contact Energy (CEN), Dusk Group (DSK), Genesis Energy (GNE), GR Engineering Services (GNG), HiTech Group Australia (HIT), Redox (RDX), Regal Partners (RPL), Santos (STO), Steadfast Group (SDF)

• Earnings: Tuas (TUA)

• IPOs: None

Economic calendar (AEDT):

• 11:30 am: Australia Inflation

• 6:00 pm: UK Inflation