Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to fall, S&P 500 higher on tame CPI report + results from Telstra, Amcor and more

In a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks finished mostly higher but near session lows, after the July CPI print that landed in line with expectations

• July CPI of 3.4% trimmed money market bets on a September Fed rate hike

• Blowout results from CoreWeave (+19.2%), Super Micro (+19%) and Nebius (+34.1%) reignited the AI infrastructure trade across cloud, servers and optics 

Let's dive in.

• Major US benchmarks mostly higher in a relatively narrow trading session, finished off best levels

• Breadth was positive, with the Equal-weight S&P 500 (+0.18%) closing at fresh all-time highs

• Eight of the 11 S&P 500 sectors higher, led by Technology as the AI trade broadened the advance

• VIX eased to 14.5, the lowest since 31-Dec-25, signalling little hedging demand through the inflation print

• Bond yields fractionally lower after the in-line US CPI print, with the 2-year down 2 bps to 4.2% 

• S&P 500 earnings are so good investors are starting to worry, consensus expects growth to fall below 20% in 1Q26 and moderate into the mid-teens next year (BBG)

• Yardeni raises S&P 500 view to 8,400 on ‘Fabulous Earnings’ (BBG)

• Asian chipmakers led emerging-market equities higher, with Samsung, SK Hynix and TSMC the biggest contributors to a 1.1% gain in the MSCI EM benchmark (BBG)

• Norway oil fund CEO says he’s more nervous after record returns (BBG)

• CoreWeave Q2: revenue up 112% year-on-year to US$2.6bn,backlog rose to US$104.2bn, 2026 capex guidance lifted to US$35-39bn, shares up ~19% (CNBC)

• Super Micro fiscal Q4 beat on earnings with more than US$60bn of new orders booked over the past year, FY27 revenue guided to US$65bn-72bn, shares up ~19% (YF)

• Nebius Group Q2 26 revenue up 454% to $582.3m, marginally shy of ests, adjusted EBITDA turned positive at $236.2m, adjusted net loss narrowed to $33.2m, capital expenditure hit $5.66bn, shares jumped more than 12.5% (CNBC)

• Cisco Q4 FY26 revenue up 18% to $17.3bn, about 3% ahead of ests, non-GAAP EPS $1.22 beat by roughly 4%, product orders up 35%, FY27 revenue guided to $72.2bn to $73.4bn against ests near $63bn, shares fell about 4% after hours (BBG)

• Cava Group Q2 26 EPS 19 cents beat ests of 18 cents and revenue of $368.4m topped ests of $361m, sending the Mediterranean fast-casual chain up as much as 16% (CNBC)

• Goldman Sachs reiterated buy ratings on Dell, Hewlett Packard Enterprise and NetApp, lifting its Dell target to US$510 on agentic-AI-driven server demand (CNBC)

• Josh Kushner and Bob Iger agreed to buy the Los Angeles Lakers for $12.5bn, a record for a US sports franchise, taking out Mark Walter's 80% stake roughly a year after he paid a $10bn valuation (BBG)

• President Trump mocked Iran's military and repeated his claim that the US has total control over the Strait of Hormuz (CNBC)

• Iran-backed Houthis killed six aboard a cargo ship in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on Tuesday, the first deaths from Red Sea shipping attacks in more than a year (CNBC)

• A senior Iranian source told Reuters there were no talks with the US on extending the ceasefire, saying Tehran saw nothing to extend (RT)

• Oil eased from its intraday peak on unconfirmed reports of peace progress even as diplomatic stances hardened, a tension worth watching into the Sydney open (BBG)

• IEA flagged concerns over global oil inventories as the US and Iran hardened their stances on the Strait of Hormuz (BBG)

• Money markets trimmed bets on a September Fed rate hike after core CPI rose an in-line 0.2% month-on-month, easing fears of imminent tightening (BBG)

• The FOMC's 15 to 16 September meeting is now the key focus, with several inflation and activity prints still to land before policymakers convene (Qz)

• Warsh remains open to raising rates in September if inflation runs hotter than expected, according to an FT report citing people familiar (FT)

• US headline CPI rose 0.1% month-on-month in July, taking the annual rate to 3.4% from 3.5% in June and matching consensus (CNBC)

• Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, rose 0.2% month-on-month and 2.5% year-on-year in July, also matching economist ests (YF)

• ANZ reports 3Q26 cash profit of $1.90bn, up 1% on the 1H26 quarterly average, with CET1 up 12bps to 12.51%. Result absorbed a NZ$125m pre-tax provision after the 5 May NZ class action ruling, which ANZ has appealed. Reaffirms FY26 cost guidance of 5% down (ANZ)

• Cleanaway Waste Management receives a conditional, non-binding indicative proposal from EQT Infrastructure to acquire 100% via scheme at $3.13 cash per share, valuing it at ~$9.4bn and a 32.1% premium to the last close. Board grants EQT up to 9 weeks exclusive due diligence, with scope for a fully franked special dividend (CWY)

• HomeCo Daily Needs REIT delivers FY26 FFO of 9.0c per unit and DPU of 8.6c, both in line with guidance and up on FY25. Portfolio revalued +$180m net (+6.2%), lifting NTA 6.1% to $1.56. Gearing 35.7% and occupancy held at 99% since IPO (HDN)

• Monadelphous wins new resources, energy and infrastructure contracts worth more than $110m, including a Santos APF Tie-In Project award in PNG, a Pilbara Ports civil job at Port Hedland via Melchor, and a 12-month services contract at Glencore's Murrin Murrin operations (MND)

• Telstra posts FY26 underlying EBITDAaL up 4% to $8.3bn and cash EPS up 14% to 25.5c. Declares final dividend of 10.5c (90.5% franked), taking the full-year payout to 21c, up 10.5%. Announces a further on-market buy-back of up to $1bn and guides FY27 underlying EBITDAaL of $8.5-8.8bn (TLS)

Broker data is currently pending. Check out tonight's Evening Wrap for a full breakdown of today's analyst updates.

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Thu 13 Aug: Bank of Queensland (BOQ) – $0.15, Reckon (RKN) – $0.025, Rio Tinto (RIO) – $3.029, Scentre Group (SCG) – $0.092

• Fri 14 Aug: Argo Investments (ARG) – $0.20, BKI Investment Company (BKI) – $0.04, Plato Income Maximiser (PL8) – $0.006, Spheria Emerging Companies (SEC) – $0.011

Other ASX corporate actions today:       

• Dividends paid: None

• Earnings: ASX (ASX), Telstra (TLS), Bell Financial Group (BFG), HomeCo Daily Needs REIT (HDN), Insurance Australia  (IAG), Origin Energy (ORG), Orora (ORA), PWR Holdings (PWR), Transurban (TCL), Treasury Wine (TWE)

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEST): 

• 4:00 pm: UK Q2 GDP 

• 10:30 pm: US PPI