Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to extend bounce, strong US earnings lift the S&P 500 and Nasdaq

Major US benchmarks closed higher overnight as a raft of earnings results came out ahead of market expectations, the US dollar index experiences a notable pullback after PMI data flagged weaker demand and cooling business activity, Tesla misses first quarter earnings expectations and plans to launch cheaper models ahead of schedule and keep an eye out for Australian inflation data at 11:30 am.

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 gaps up and rallies intraday to finish near best levels (Source: TradingView)

MARKETS

• S&P 500 extends bounce and finished near best levels overnight

• Bounce supported by weakening US dollar and slight easing of bond yields in wake of softer-than-expected PMI data (perhaps the ‘bad news is good news’ theme is back)

• Major bounce beneficiaries include growth, long duration, small caps and lower quality

• Earnings ramping up with SAP (+5.5%) boosted by cloud backlog growth, Pepsi (-2.9%) earnings in-line though North American sales lagged, GE (+8.3%) beat and raised full-year view, UPS (+2.4%) beat and showed improved volumes and more

• Citi strategists say buy the dip as global equities more attractive after the recent rout (Bloomberg)

• Big Tech under increasing pressure to deliver on AI contribution to revenues and profits, BofA says (Bloomberg)

• UBS upgrades China stocks to overweight, citing earnings resilience and capital return (Bloomberg)

INTERNATIONAL STOCKS

• Tesla misses first quarter revenue and earnings expectations, announces plan to accelerate launch of new affordable models (Reuters)

• Apple's first quarter phone sales in China fall 19.1%, while rival Huawei's recorded 70% gain (Bloomberg, Reuters)

• Microsoft announces cost-effective small language AI model (Reuters)

• SAP stock rallies most since January as AI adoption drives cloud demand (Bloomberg)

• Spotify profits up but lower marketing hits user growth (Reuters)

• Google Search head warns of intensifying competition and regulation (CNBC)

• Amazon launches US$9.99/month unlimited grocery delivery service (Reuters)

• Walmart launches BNPL product with One despite recent expansion of relationship with Affirm (CNBC)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Markets now pricing-in growing risk of Fed rate hike amid stronger US data and hawkish Fedspeak (FT)

• BOJ to leave policy unchanged Friday as economists eye October hike (Bloomberg)

• ECB VP de Guindos says June rate cut seems like a done deal (Bloomberg)

GEOPOLITICS

• US drafting sanctions against Chinese banks for aiding Russia's war effort (WSJ)

• Biden tells Kiev military aid is coming after delayed US$60bn funding approved by House of Representatives (FT)

ECONOMY

• US services and manufacturing PMI for April all miss consensus to hit 4-5 month lows amid signs of weaker demand, inflation measures mixed (Reuters)

• Eurozone PMI expansion gains momentum on services sector activity (Bloomberg)

• Japan flash PMIs show manufacturers stabilising as services strengthen (Reuters)

• Australian flash PMIs show stabilisation in manufacturing activity, with new orders declining at the softest pace since last August (S&P)

ASX TODAY

We're moving the ASX-related sections lower to create a better separation of Wall Street/overnight headlines and local/upcoming headlines

• ASX 200 set to open higher for a third straight session but still down 2.8% from 2-Apr all-time highs

• ASX will be closed on Thursday for Anzac Day

• Australian inflation data at 11:30 am AEST – which could trigger a knee-jerk reaction to the upside/downside

• Several sectors starting to bottom after 10-15% pullback from mid-late March highs – including Homebuilders, Tech, Healthcare, Uranium and more

• Gold experienced a wild swing, down 0.2% on Tuesday, from session lows of -1.5%. Let's see if local gold names can stabilise after yesterday's selloff

• Bluescope Steel could face selling pressure after US peers Nucor (-8.8%) missed earnings expectations amid lower earnings from its steel mills segment

• Long list of companies due to report March quarterlies including MinRes, Fortescue, Red 5, Regis Resources, Paladin Energy, Westgold Resources, Silver Lake and more

• Seven Group says talk of Cleanaway buyout ‘completely untrue’ (AFR)

• Nick Scali to launch $46-50m capital raise to fund acquisition of Fabb Furniture (AFR)

BROKER MOVES

A few interesting broker notes have popped up since market close on Tuesday.

• 29Metals downgraded to Sell from Underperform; target up to $0.35 from $0.28 (CSLA)

• Accent Group initiated Overweight with $2.20 target (JPMorgan)

• Aurelia Metals upgraded to Buy from Hold; target up to $0.23 from $0.16 (Jefferies) 

• Chrysos downgraded to Neutral from Overweight; target cut to $7.25 from $8.05 (Barrenjoey)

• Lifestyle Communities upgraded to Neutral from Sell but target cut to $12.85 from $14.24 (UBS)

• Lovisa initiated Neutral with $29.00 target (JPMorgan)

• Northern Star downgraded to Underperform from Outperform; target up to $14.80 from $13.95 (CSLA) 

• Universal Store initiated Overweight with $6.20 target (JPMorgan)

Companies trading ex-dividend: 

• Wed 24 April None

• Thu 25 April: None

• Fri 26 April: None

• Mon 29 April: Acrow (ACF) – $0.029, 360 Capital Mortgage REIT (TCF) – $0.035

• Tue 30 April: None

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: Ridley Corp (RIC) – $0.044, 360 Capital REIT (TOT) – $0.015, Australian Unity office Fund (AOF) – $0.015 

• Listing: None

Economic calendar (AEST):

• 11:30 am: Australia Inflation Rate (Mar)

• 10:30 pm: US Durable Goods Orders (Mar)