Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to bounce, S&P 500 almost positive for the week

ASX 200 futures are up 91 pts (+1.02%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

In a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks higher in a tech, momentum and growth-led bounce

• S&P 500 almost breakeven for the week, Nasdaq has flipped slightly positive

• Markets generally resilient, with a focus on how geopolitical shocks have historically not had a lasting impact and tend to present good dip buying opportunities

• Commodity prices broadly higher, but off best levels

Let's dive in.

Overnight Summary

Thu 05 Mar 26, 8:23am (AEST)

Name	Value	% Chg
Major Indices
S&P 500	6,870	+0.78%
Dow Jones	48,739	+0.49%
NASDAQ Comp	22,807	+1.29%
Russell 2000	2,639	+1.19%
Country Indices
Canada	33,943	+0.47%
China	4,082	-0.98%
Germany	24,205	+1.74%
Hong Kong	25,249	-2.01%
India	79,116	-1.40%
Japan	54,246	-3.61%
United Kingdom	10,568	+0.80%

Name	Value	% Chg
Commodities (USD)
Gold	5,139.77	+1.00%
Copper	5.85	+1.27%
WTI Oil	75.63	+1.44%
Currency
AUD/USD	0.7078	+0.61%
Cryptocurrency
Bitcoin (USD)	73,077	+7.44%
Ethereum (AUD)	3,044	+9.55%
Miscellaneous
US 10 Yr T-bond	4.08	+0.59%
VIX	21.27	-9.75%

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 higher, closed near best levels (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks higher, closing near best levels

• S&P 500 only down just 0.1% for the week, Nasdaq now 0.26% higher

• Growth, momentum and tech led bounce, with Amazon (+3.8%) and Tesla (+3.4%) the Mag-7 standouts

• Commodities mostly higher in choppy trading (e.g. gold rallied as much as 2.3%), most have given back around half of their intraday gains

• Markets generally resilient amid the unsettled geopolitical backdrop, with hopes of some degree of near-term off ramp to alleviate inflation and economic growth concerns

• Middle East conflict stokes inflation fears, weighing on equities and rate cut odds (RT)

• Wall Street doubtful Trump will rescue stocks this time as energy spike threatens to bolster inflation (BBG)

• Korean stocks extend selloff, triggers circuit breakers amid Middle East tensions, elevated leverage and foreigners selling (BBG)

• Investors flee private credit funds amid bad loans and AI disruption fears (FT)

• Wall Street private markets firms warn of industry pain amid withdrawals and defaults (BBG)

ENERGY

• Middle East conflict threatens global growth as Middle East energy disruptions drive Asia LNG prices to three-year high (BBG)

• Ship-tracking data show traffic through Strait of Hormuz has dipped over 95% (BBG)

• Maersk halts cargo bookings for Gulf states until further notice (TI)

• Insurance for ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz up 12x since the war (FT)

• Saudi Aramco is exploring options of delivering more cargoes via the Red Sea to avoid Strait of Hormuz (BBG)

• US shale producers say they cannot increase production fast enough to plug supply gap triggered by attacks on Iran (FT)

STOCKS

• Anthropic on track for $20bn revenue amid Pentagon clash over AI safeguards (BBG)

• Intel CFO says CPU market expected to grow materially in 2026, memory shortage said to persist through 2027 (WSJ)

• Nvidia CEO Huang says $30 billion OpenAI investment 'might be the last' (CNBC)

• Lockheed Martin and RTX to make White House visit amid dwindling US stockpiles (BBG)

• CrowdStrike guides FY revenue above expectations, bets on enterprise adoption of AI-powered cybersecurity solutions, shares up 4% (RT)

• Meta and NewsCorp agree to 3-year AI content licensing deal worth up to $50m pa (WSJ)

IRAN

• Iran operatives open to negotiations but skepticism abounds (NYT)

• Secretary of Defense Hegseth says Iran conflict 'just getting started', could last eight weeks (CBS)

• US submarine torpedoes Iranian ship off Sri Lanka (RT)

• White House says Spain has agreed to cooperate militarily on Iran (WSJ)

• Trump pledges US insurance and naval escorts for Hormuz Strait but shipowners remain skeptical (BBG)

• US commander says Iran assault ahead of schedule with degraded defenses and sunk navy vessels (RT)

CENTRAL BANKS

• BOJ's Ueda warns Middle East conflict could spike Japan's energy costs and inflation, but reiterates tightening path (BBG)

• BOK monitoring excessive FX movements after won nears 2009 low, pledges to respond if needed (YH)

• White House officially sends nomination of Kevin Warsh to the Senate (WH)

ECONOMY

• US ISM Services PMI jumps to 56.1 vs. 53.5 ests, now the highest since Aug-22, new orders jumped to highest since 2024, respondent feedback generally positive albeit uneven conditions (BBG)

• Eurozone PMI accelerates in February, composite PMI up to a three-month high of 51.9 on faster demand for goods and services, outlook optimism jumps to highest since May-24 (SPG)

• UK services PMI slipped to 53.9 in February vs. January's five-month high of 54, though persistent job cuts and price pressures persisted, raising BoE concerns (RT)

• China official PMIs show manufacturing and non-manufacturing contraction worsened to 49 and 49.5 respectively, reflecting LNY disruption (BBG)

• Australian GDP growth advances to 0.8% in the December quarter and 2.6% for the year, but details mixed with household consumption weakening (BBG)

• Denmark set for Nordic-leading 3% growth in 2026, fueled by Novo Nordisk despite sector headwinds (BBG)

ASX TODAY

• Boss Energy reports significant rainfall at Honeymoon, cuts Q3 production outlook but reaffirms full-year guidance (BOE)

• Deep Yellow sounding out investors appetite for equity raising as it moves into development, could wait until there is less market volatility (The Aus)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Tech: iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF up 1.8% overnight, closing at a one-month high and now on a four day win streak. Starting to get some post-capitulation/bottom-y vibes here. That said, local tech is somehow on a four-day losing streak (classic ASX).

• Aluminium: Qatalum of Qatar, a major aluminium producer, initiated a controlled shutdown due to issues with gas product. Aluminium prices rallied as much as 4.5% overnight, but closed 1.8% higher. This still marks the highest close since April 2022. This drove a big reversal for NYSE-listed Alcoa shares, which jumped 7.1% in early trade but finished 3.5% lower.

BROKER MOVES

• Bapcor upgraded to Neutral from Sell; target lowered to $0.76 from $1.25 (CITI)

• Qantas upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform; target lowered to $11.25 from $12.00 (RBC)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Thu 5 Mar: BHP Group (BHP) – $1.03, Eagers Automotive (APE) – $0.50, Ebos Group (EBO) – $0.427, EQT Holdings (EQT) – $0.56, Freightways Group (FRW) – $0.179, Heartland Group Holdings (HGH) – $0.029, Iluka Resources (ILU) – $0.03, Karoon Energy (KAR) – $0.031, Laserbond (LBL) – $0.008, Lovisa Holdings (LOV) – $0.53, Meridian Energy (MEZ) – $0.053, Monadelphous Group (MND) – $0.49, Nib Holdings (NHF) – $0.13, NZME (NZM) – $0.051, Perseus Mining (PRU) – $0.05, Praemium (PPS) – $0.013, QBE Insurance Group (QBE) – $0.78, Rio Tinto (RIO) – $3.602, Schaffer Corporation (SFC) – $0.45, Smartgroup Corporation (SIQ) – $0.335, South32 (S32) – $0.055, SKS Technologies Group (SKS) – $0.035, Symal Group (SYL) – $0.033, TPG Telecom (TPG) – $0.09, Woodside Energy Group (WDS) – $0.834

• Fri 6 Mar: Ampol (ALD) – $0.60, Aussie Broadband (ABB) – $0.024, Objective Corporation (OCL) – $0.13, Resimac Group (RMC) – $0.13

• Mon 9 Mar: Alcoa Corporation (AAI) – $0.098, GTN (GTN) – $0.01, Nine Entertainment (NEC) – $0.045, Ramsay Health Care (RHC) – $0.425, Red Hill Minerals (RHI) – $0.116

Other ASX corporate actions today:       

• Dividends paid: FSA Group (FSA)

• Earnings: None

• IPOs: Astral Resources (AAR), Central Petroleum (CTP)

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEDT):

• 11:30 am: Australia Balance of Trade