Morning Wrap: ASX 200 futures flat + A flurry of hawkish central bank warnings

The Bank of England unexpectedly hiked rates by 50 bps to 5.0%, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq break a three-day losing streak, the VIX is trading at its lowest level since January 2020, Powell concludes his two day testimony in front of congress, Accenture flags a painful road ahead for the IT industry and Friday's Charts of the Week.

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 bounces and closes at best levels (Source: TradingView)

MARKETS

• S&P 500 higher, finished near session highs and snaps a three-day losing streak

• Yesterday’s losers (also year-to-date winners) like Tech and Communication Services led to the upside while the winners (also laggards) like Energy, Utilities and Real Estate underperformed

• VIX falls another 7% to 12.9 – The lowest since January 2020 

• Powell reiterates further rate hikes by year-end (Bloomberg)

• Oil sinks as hawkish Fed spooks investors, overshadows EIA data (Bloomberg)

• Total US short interest surpasses $1tn but paper losses top $100bn (Bloomberg)

• Yield curve inversion near 42-year record, raising US recession odds (FT)

• Despite this, Fed projections suggest the US avoids recession while Goldman Sachs recently cut its recession odds from 35% to 25% 

STOCKS

• Tesla shares seen as most overbought since 2021 (Bloomberg)

• Amazon shares rallied after JPMorgan reiterated the stock as overweight, citing further growth opportunities in Amazon Prime (CNBC)

• Ford gets US$9.2bn to help US catch up with China’s EV dominance (Bloomberg)

• Accenture signals more pain for IT industry with disappointing forecasts (Reuters)

• Overstock shares jump after winning the auction for Bed Bath & Beyond’s digital assets, brand name and intellectual property (CNBC)

ECONOMY

• US initial jobless claims hold steady at 20-month high (Reuters)

• Bank of England hikes rates by 50 bps to 5.0% in surprise move (Reuters)

• Norges Bank hikes rates by 50bps, turning more hawkish (Bloomberg)

• SNB hikes rates by 25bp, signals may need to do more (Bloomberg)

• Turkey's central bank raises rates for first time since 2021 by 6.5% (FT)

Deeper Dive

Powell Speech Highlights

Powell wrapped up a two-day testimony in front of the US House Financial Services Committee. The speech is part of his semiannual appearance at Capitol Hill to update policymakers on monetary policy. Here are his key comments:

• The final stretch: "We’ve come very far and the reason why we maintained our rate at the last meeting was to give ourselves more time—to stretch out the time for making these decisions ... We're close but there's a little further to go with hikes."

• Two more hikes: "The committee broadly feels that while monetary policy has gotten to an appropriately restrictive level, if the economy performs about as expected, that it will be appropriate to raise hikes again this year and perhaps twice."

• Not going too far: "... We slowed from 75 to 50 basis points per meeting to 25 at every meeting. And now as we reach, as we get closer and closer to what we believe will be ... our destination we've slowed down a little further. So we're trying to avoid the mistake of going too far."

Charts of the Week

This segment of the morning wrap brings you weekly technical commentary on the ASX 200 and some of the more interesting charts in the market. These are not meant as recommendations. They are for illustrative purposes only. Any discussion of past performance is for educational purposes only. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future return. Always do your own research.

ASX 200 – Finally

Source: Commsec

Finally there has been some movement on the index worth talking about. Last Friday the XJO broker higher, out the wedge pattern we’d been highlighting for the past couple of weeks. Since then, the price action has peaked near 7400 and come back to retest the breakout point near 7200. If the bulls can hold here and bounce higher, it would be a great sign and could lead to a more sustained move higher. If they don’t, the index will be firmly entrenched right in the muck that held it captive for the past few months, with a potentially difficult reporting season right around the corner.

Cettire  Limited (CTT) – Fashionable again

Source: Commsec

Cettire has had a wild ride in the past few years. In January 2021 it was trading around 40c, rallied to $4.80 by November 2021, collapsed to 40c again in June 2022, and has since steadily climbed back to $2.40. It’s the steady climb that we’re interested in and highlighted on the chart above. It’s a solid uptrend, where the dips have been met with support, whilst average volume has been picking up through the most recent part of the rally. The $2 round number has been tested and confirmed multiple times and it seems the bulls are now clear of this level.

Latin Resources (LRS) – Coming to life

Source: Commsec

One at the most speculative end of the spectrum, LRS is a mineral exploration company, with lithium projects in South America and Australia. After a long time doing next to nothing, the price action has come to life since the start of may and volumes have been picking. Like any junior miner, this one will likely be driven by news flow but, from a technical perspective, it has solid momentum.

ASX corporate actions occurring today:

• Trading ex-div: Elidon Capital (EDC) – $0.016

• Dividends paid: EZZ Life Science (EZZ) – $0.009

• Listing: None

Economic calendar (AEST):

• 9:00 am: Australia Manufacturing & Services PMI

• 9:00 am: UK Consumer Confidence

• 9:30 am: Japan Inflation Rate

• 4:00 pm: UK Retail Sales