Evening Wrap: ASX 200 steady as BHP sell-off flows straight into banks, MQG and CBA the main beneficiaries

The ASX 200 finished virtually unchanged as BHP's copper production guidance miss — a mechanical failure compounding expected ore quality declines in Chile — unwound most of yesterday's gain and freed up capital that rotated cleanly into financials, consumer discretionary, and communication services.

Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap. Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P/ASX 200 in today's ChartWatch.

Let’s dive in!

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 0.4 points lower at 8,840.7, 0.37% from its session low and 0.18% from its high. At least today’s market breadth beat the benchmark’s result, with 165 gainers to 108 losers in the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO).

Materials (XMJ) (-1.6%) was the day's most significant drag, with BHP's operational review delivering a disappointment on its most closely watched metric. The mechanical failure at South Australia's Olympic Dam mine, compounding anticipated ore grade declines in Chile, means FY27 copper production guidance landed at 1.65–1.80 million tonnes — 2% below consensus and a meaningful step back from the 1.95 million tonnes achieved in FY26.

S&P-ASX 200 Materials Sector Index intraday chart

BHP (BHP) (-2.3%) fell, all but reversing Wednesday's gain. The broader base metals backdrop was also soft — COMEX copper futures fell 0.6% overnight before recovering 1.0% to US$6.40/lb in Asian trade, and SGX iron ore futures eased 0.3% to US$100.25/t. Sandfire Resources (SFR) (-1.9%), Fortescue (FMG) (-1.1%), and South32 (S32) (-0.5%) were all lower.

S&P-ASX 200 Financials Sector Index intraday chart

Financials (XFJ) (+0.9%) absorbed the lion's share of the capital that rotated out of materials. The big banks' contributions were concentrated in Commonwealth Bank (CBA) (+1.8%) and National Australia Bank (NAB) (+1.3%), with ANZ (ANZ) (+0.7%) and Westpac (WBC) (+0.1%) only modestly higher.

The real action was in consumer finance and funds management — Zip Co (ZIP) (+8.5%), HUB24 (HUB) (+2.2%) and Macquarie Group (MQG) (+2.0%) were standouts — the latter hitting another all-time record high as a direct beneficiary of the year's commodity price volatility. AMP (AMP) (+9.8%) had its best day since 2024 after it guided to a first-half underlying net profit of $170–180 million, driven by its China partnerships.

S&P-ASX 200 Consumer Discretionary Sector Index intraday chart_16 Jul

Consumer Discretionary (XDJ) (+1.1%) found buyers as the Melbourne Institute's June inflation expectations reading fell to 4.7% from May's 5.5% — a meaningful decline that eased the near-term cost-of-living pressure on household spending confidence. Lovisa (LOV) (+4.9%), Domino's Pizza Enterprises (DMP) (+2.3%), Nick Scali (NCK) (+2.0%), and JB Hi-Fi (JBH) (+1.8%) all advanced.

Energy (XEJ) (-1.5%) gave back recent gains as ICE Brent crude futures eased 0.4% to US$84.65/bbl. Whitehaven Coal (WHC) (-2.8%), Santos (STO) (-1.8%), and Woodside Energy (WDS) (-1.5%) led the sector lower.

The Gold Sub-Index (XGD) (-0.8%) continued its correction as COMEX gold futures fell 0.5% to US$4,031.50/oz in Asian trade. Kingsgate Consolidated (KCN) (-3.1%), Evolution Mining (EVN) (-3.0%), Predictive Discovery (PDI) (-2.3%), and Newmont (NEM) (-1.0%) were all lower.

Australian Spodumene Concentrate 6% Li2O CIF China. Source: SMM

Lithium stocks surrendered most of yesterday's gains as Australian spodumene concentrate prices in China fell 2.7% to US$2,195/t, approaching the lows of the current correction. Elevra Lithium (ELV) (-4.6%), Pilbara Minerals (PLS) (-3.7%), Mineral Resources (MIN) (-3.3%), Deep Yellow (DYL) (-3.7%), Liontown Resources (LTR) (-2.8%), and Core Lithium (CXO) (-1.9%) were all lower.

Uranium stocks also remained under sustained selling pressure, with the Sprott Uranium Miners ETF's 1.4% overnight decline tracking through to ASX names with additional local selling — Silex Systems (SLX) (-3.5%), Paladin Energy (PDN) (-1.5%), and Boss Energy (BOE) (-1.1%) all fell.

Analysis

Apart from the occasional discrepancy (Monday’s Middle East flare up), it’s a case of candle by candle confirming that there’s:

Little motivated supply side engagement (very low volumes = lack of demand and supply engagement, consistently white-bodied candles and or those with downward pointing shadows = lack of supply side motivation).

Consistent demand side motivation, even if only on that same scant engagement basis — but what’s there — the drip, drip, drip of passive flows… Like background radiation at Chernobyl, keeps the bid-side stocked! ☢️

To repeat myself again: If the supply side chooses or is unable to engage (because they’re at the beach, the Grand Canyon, or Wally World), even a little demand can go a long way.

And it wouldn’t have to go a very long way to challenge 26789-27191. Which is increasingly looking like the main game here.

You know my standing position. I need to be convinced at that zone. In the meantime, yeah, sure, I could definitely skew my exposure towards the long side and use up all of the risk allocation available to me… But I’m not comfortable just yet in bumping up my total portfolio RP.

Safe vs sorry… Or something like that. (Although I’ll be very sorry if I’m in cash if the old Comp blasts through 26789-27191!!! 🚀)

View

I am at 1/2RP on my US portfolio (RP = Risk Position — it reflects my personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in US stocks. So 1/2RP is 50%, 2/3RP is 67% and FRP is 100% 🪣).

Key Levels

Dead simple! 26789-27191 is the key zone of supply vs 24980-25015 is the key zone of demand. In between = 1/2RP vs >= FRP and <= 1/3RP.

Analysis

Sometimes I don't know why we bother. I mean just do the opening price auction, then immediately after it hold the closing price auction... And cut the 6 hours of wasted FFS in between! We'd all be better for it! 🤦

The only thing interesting about today’s candle is that fact that once again, early supply side pressure was halted and overcome. Indeed, this defensive manoeuvring has become a palpable hallmark of the last three-weeks of trade on the OTP.

Call it the ‘invisible hand’, or ‘juicing the banks’, I like to think of it as Gandalph screaming at that big angry fiery bloke, “You shall not pass!!!”. I.e., the demand side ain’t letting the supply side get through 8708-8656.

Same as the Comp here for me. Constructive, but ultimately still equilibrium = some caution required. Awaiting a strong and sustained demand side showing (not just the present sneaky defensive manoeuvring!) at 8984-9022 before adding RP back in.

View

I'm 1/2RP on my Aussie portfolio ⚖️ (i.e., my personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in Australian stocks is 50%).

Key Levels

8984-9022 is the key zone of supply, while demand is at 8708-8656.

(Glossary of acronyms! Old Tin Pot (OTP): S&P/ASX 200 | MOTN: More Often Than Not | FOMO: Fear Of Missing Out | HOFU: Holding On For Upside | BTD: Buy The Dip | NUTE: No Urgency To Enter | FOHO: Fear Of Holding On | STR: Sell The Rally | RP: Risk Position | FFS: Fund Flow Shenanigans!)

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Today

• AUS June MI Inflation Expectations

  • Result: +4.7% p.a. vs +5.5% p.a. in May (i.e., a nice improvement, but still way, way above the RBA's target 2-3% p.a. band!)

Thursday

• 22:30 USA June Core Retail Sales (flat m/m forecast vs +0.8% m/m in May)

Friday

• 23:15 USA June Building Permits & Housing Starts (1.4 million and 1.31 million forecast vs 1.41 million and 1.18 million in May)

• 23:15 USA June Industrial Production (+0.2% m/m forecast vs 0.1% m/m in May)

Saturday

• 00:00 USA July Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (51.0 forecast vs 49.5 (revised up from 48.9) in June)