Evening Wrap: ASX 200 slips on CBA trading update wipeout, PLS, MIN, LTR, and IGO lead lithium sector resurgence

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 17.1 points lower, down 0.19%.

Aussie bank stocks – can't live with them, can't live without them! The sector could not have proceeded along more divergent grounds today as Bendigo and Adelaide Bank (BEN) (-8.5%) and Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) (-6.6%) went one way – south at a rate of knots – while ANZ Group Holdings (ANZ) (+0.5%), Macquarie Group (MQG) (+0.7%) and Westpac Banking Corp. (WBC) (+1.3%) prospered. (Probably at the expense of the first two!)

What about National Australia Bank (NAB) (-1.3%)? It actually deserves to be counted in the winners group today, as it went ex-dividend 87 cents fully franked – more than its modest 57 cent loss.

It wasn't all about bank stocks today, though, as gold and silver stocks continued their recent recovery, as did the lithium sector – very strong performances from Liontown Resources (LTR) (+7.8%), Pilbara Minerals (PLS) (+7.5%), and Mineral Resources (MIN) (+6.0%) the most notable there.

Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the S&P/ASX 200 in today's ChartWatch.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 17.1 points lower at 8,818.8, 0.64% from its session high and just 0.02% from its low. Despite the poor performance at headline level, in the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) advancers beat decliners by a tidy 180 to 93.

Fund flows: CBA wipes out 🤕

It's nice when things make sense. Apart from the CBA wipeout – which definitely wasn't in the charts – today's trade largely went the way of recent fund flows.

The Gold Sub-Index (XGD) (+2.7%), and Resources (XJR) (+1.1%) more generally, were the main "Targets" of fund flows, with Energy (XEJ) (+1.2%) once again tagging along for the ride.

Versus laggards / "Funding" sectors (i.e., those sectors being sold off to fund acquisitions in the "Target" sectors) in the form of Health Care (XHJ) (+0.2%) and Information Technology (XIJ) (-0.6%).

Once could argue that Financials (XFJ) (-1.8%) was a Funding sector today – but it's hard to tell given the messes in BEN and CBA following their respective trading updates. Can I offer the XFJ was probably net-net neutral given NAB's better-then-div-plus-franking performance, and considering gains in "best two from a technical perspective" ANZ Group (ANZ) (+0.47%) and Westpac Banking Corp. (WBC) (+1.3%).

Within Resources, I note that outside of precious metals, lithium stocks continued to be the standouts.

Today's best blue chip gainers

Today's worst blue chip losers

ChartWatch

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

XJO Analysis

It goes to show – in a short term downtrend – one up-day does not a recovery make! 🧐

Back to Old Tin Pot sort of stuff today… i.e., it couldn’t bottle yesterday’s strong showing. Or could / did it? 🤔

To be fair on the OTP, the NAB divvy and CBA’s sell off post results accounted for the bulk of its losses, as well as the shape of that dour intraday chart (shown above in the Markets section).

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) intraday chart – explains the long intraday XJO drawdown…

I'll refrain from calling a spade a spade (in the form of today’s supply-side candle – i.e., black body and upward pointing shadow) and give the OTP the benefit of the doubt. Let’s wait for tomorrow’s candle before jumping to any conclusion about whether yesterday’s rally has legs or not.

I note, however, that the short term downtrend ribbon (yes I haven’t had to apply the “d” word it ribbon for a long time!) is lurking dangerously close overhead – ready to offer stiff overhead dynamic excess supply.

Below that, and in the absence of at least one really definitive demand-side showing (i.e., a long white-bodied candle and or a long downward pointing shadow) – I remain cautious. I want to see a clear signal the demand-side is back in control before considering adding risk back to my Aussie Stocks Risk Bucket 🪣.

Nothing has changed re. 8731, a close below that is warning bells ringing! 🚨

XJO View

I remain comfortable at 1/2RP (1/2 Risk Position = My personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in Australian stocks is 50%).

XJO Key levels

8831 is the next key level that the price must not cross to maintain any semblance this is still a short term uptrend! A close above the short term uptrend ribbon (presently 8891-8897) would help confirm the demand-side remains active in the system.

Where's the Nasdaq and Commodities Technical Analysis? 🤔

It's been moved to a dedicated series: ChartWatch Markets! 📈📈📈

In today's edition: Investors flooded back into the US stock market on Monday to snap up beaten down technology shares in the Nasdaq Composite. The gain reversed a worrying losing streak that threatened to derail the bull market. Is the worst behind investors?

Gold and silver price each experienced its own recent pullback, as arguably the best uptrends of 2025 came to a sudden halt. Is this bounce the start of the next major leg up, or is it simply a chance for those having second thoughts to bail out?

Economy

Today

November Westpac Consumer Sentiment

• AUS November Westpac Consumer Sentiment

  • +12.8 points to 103.8 to vs -3.5 points in October.

  • Readings > 100 indicate more optimists than pessimists – this is the first +100 reading in 44 months!

  • Likely that this year's very strong home price growth is feeding into consumer sentiment, with the home price sub-index rising to a new 15-year high of 172.4.

  • Consumer sentiment data usually leads consumer spending – the greatest component of GDP growth – so this is a bullish sign for the Australian economy (but perhaps a little too bullish for the RBA!)

• AUS October NAB Business Confidence

  • Confidence: -1 point to 6 points vs 7 points in September.

  • Conditions: +1 point to 9 points vs 8 points as profitability to +9 from +6, capital expenditure to +11 from +7, and forward orders to +3 from −2 in September.

  • Capacity utilisation rose to 83.4% – now 2% above the long-run average – hinting at potential inflationary pressures.

• Commentary on today's data from My Bui, AMP Economist:

  • "Consumer as well as business confidence have both solidly recovered from the trough and today’s strong readings underscore the RBA assessment that the 'recovery is still underway'".

  • "We also see that consumer spending growth will remain positive and may improve in annual growth terms from here. Overall, it also means that the RBA will likely remain on hold in next month’s meeting."

  • "That being said, both surveys indicate several signs of a softening labour market, with higher unemployment expectations and lacklustre employment conditions."

Wednesday

• No major economic data releases scheduled

Thursday

• 11:30 AUS October Employment

  • Change: +20,300 forecast vs +14,900 in September

  • Unemployment Rate: 4.4% vs 4.5% in September

Friday

• Tentative due to govt shutdown – USA October Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) (+0.3% m/m forecast vs +0.2% m/m in September)

• 05:01 USA 30-year Government Treasury Bond Auction

• 13:00 CHN October Data Dump

  • Fixed Asset Investment: -0.8% ytd/y forecast vs -0.5% ytd/y in September

  • Industrial Production: +5.5% p.a. vs +6.5% p.a. in September

  • Retail Sales: +2.8% p.a. vs +3.0% p.a. in September

  • Unemployment Rate: Forecast 5.2% vs 5.2% in October

Saturday

• Tentative due to govt shutdown – USA October Core Producer Price Index (PPI)

• Tentative due to govt shutdown – USA October Retail Sales

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Today's "Movers Chart of the Day" is Mayfield Group (MYG)

Trading higher

• +18.1% Mayfield Group Holdings (MYG) – Placement and Share Purchase Plan and Broker Presentation, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +16.7% Lumos Diagnostics Holdings (LDX) – No news, today’s move is consistent with recent volatility.

• +12.1% Ballard Mining (BM1) – Continued positive response to 10-Nov Investor Presentation - Noosa Mining Conference, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today.

• +11.0% Light & Wonder (LNW) – Continued positive response to 7-Nov LNW Intention to conduct buyback on ASX.

• +10.5% Eroad (ERD) – No news, today’s move is consistent with recent volatility.

• +9.6% Elevra Lithium (ELV) – No news, general strength across the broader Lithium sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and long term trend is transitioning from down to up, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +9.1% New Murchison Gold (NMG) – No news, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +9.0% Peter Warren Automotive Holdings (PWR) – No news 🤔.

• +8.7% Cobalt Blue Holdings (COB) – No news, general strength across the broader Critical Minerals sector today, today’s move is consistent with recent volatility.

• +8.1% Tivan (TVN) – No news, general strength across the broader Critical Minerals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +8.0% Focus Minerals (FML) – No news, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +7.8% Liontown Resources (LTR) – No news, general strength across the broader Lithium sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +7.5% Pilbara Minerals (PLS) – No news, general strength across the broader Lithium sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +7.3% Aeris Resources (AIS) – No news, general strength across the broader Critical Minerals sector today.

• +7.1% Barton Gold Holdings (BGD) – Results of Share Purchase Plan, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today.

• +6.6% St Barbara (SBM) – No news, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today.

• +6.6% Bega Cheese (BGA) – Bega Group Half Year 2026 Results Conference.

• +6.3% Toubani Resources (TRE) – No news, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today.

• +6.0% Medallion Metals (MM8) – No news, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today.

• +6.0% Artrya (AYA) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +6.0% Mineral Resources (MIN) – No news, general strength across the broader Lithium sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and long term trend is transitioning from down to up, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +5.4% IGO (IGO) – No news, general strength across the broader Lithium sector today.

Trading lower

• -28.4% Coronado Global Resources (CRN) – As Filed SEC Form-10Q Q3, repelled perfectly from long-term downtrend ribbon! 🔎📉

• -17.1% Waratah Minerals (WTM) – Precious Metals Summit Zurich Presentation.

• -15.2% European Lithium (EUR) – No news, today’s move is consistent with recent volatility.

• -8.5% Bendigo and Adelaide Bank (BEN) – BEN 1Q26 Trading Update.

• -6.6% Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) – September Quarter 2025 Trading Update.

• -5.2% Life360 (360) – Q3 2025 Investor Presentation.

Broker Moves

Life360 Inc (360)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $47.00

• Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $45.00

AGL Energy (AGL)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $11.50

Aeris Resources (AIS)

• Upgraded to buy from hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.65 from $0.52

Ampol (ALD)

• Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $35.00

ANZ Group Holdings (ANZ)

• Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $39.53 from $38.92

• Retained at neutral at JPMorgan; Price Target: $35.20 from $34.10

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $35.00 from $34.00

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $34.00

• Retained at trim at Morgans; Price Target: $33.09 from $32.80

• Retained at lighten at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $30.00

• Retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: $30.00

Abacus Storage King (ASK)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $1.50

Bendigo and Adelaide Bank (BEN)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $13.00

Bega Cheese (BGA)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $6.60

Bellevue Gold (BGL)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.70

BHP Group (BHP)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $44.00

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $48.00

Breville Group (BRG)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $39.20

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA)

• Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $130.00

• Retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: $125.00

Champion Iron (CIA)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.00

Collins Foods (CKF)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $11.20

Capricorn Metals (CMM)

• Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $13.00

Coles Group (COL)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $26.10

Capstone Copper Corp. (CSC)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $16.50

Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals (CUV)

• Upgraded to speculative buy from hold at Morgans; Price Target: $14.00

Domino's Pizza Enterprises (DMP)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $15.30

Dyno Nobel (DNL)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $3.50

• Retained at outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $3.70 from $3.50

• Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $3.33 from $3.16

• Downgraded to hold from accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $3.45

• Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $4.00 from $3.70

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $3.35

DPM Metals Inc. (DPM)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $47.00

Deterra Royalties (DRR)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.40

Endeavour Group (EDV)

• Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.50

Evolution Mining (EVN)

• Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $9.50

Frontier Energy (FHE)

• Initiated at speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.50

Flight Centre Travel Group (FLT)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $15.10

Fortescue (FMG)

• Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $18.50

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $21.20

Greatland Resources (GGP)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $10.50

Genesis Minerals (GMD)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $8.00

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $5.40

Harvey Norman Holdings (HVN)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $7.40

IGO (IGO)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.75

Iluka Resources (ILU)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $7.10

Inghams Group (ING)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.70

IRESS (IRE)

• Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $11.52 from $10.00

• Retained at positive at E&P; Price Target: $10.01 from $11.35

• Retained at hold at Jefferies; Price Target: $8.95 from $8.50

• Retained at accumulate at Morgans; Price Target: $10.50 from $9.69

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $9.50 from $9.10

JB Hi-Fi (JBH)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $121.00

James Hardie Industries Plc (JHX)

• Upgraded to hold from sell at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $31.00 from $32.00

LendLease Group (LLC)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $6.70

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $6.58 from $7.12

Liontown Resources (LTR)

• Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.65

Lynas Rare Earths (LYC)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $17.00

Mineral Resources (MIN)

• Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $38.00

Monadelphous Group (MND)

• Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $24.00 from $22.00

• Retained at underperform at Jefferies; Price Target: $18.00 from $17.00

• Retained at neutral at JPMorgan; Price Target: $21.50 from $18.10

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $26.36 from $22.17

• Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $29.00 from $24.40

• Upgraded to outperform from sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $26.75 from $20.75

Megaport (MP1)

• Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $18.00

Metcash (MTS)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.00

Nick Scali (NCK)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $28.20

Newmont Corporation (NEM)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $153.00

Neuren Pharmaceuticals (NEU)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $21.20

New Hope Corporation (NHC)

• Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.80

Nickel Industries (NIC)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.85

Northern Star Resources (NST)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $30.00

Ora Banda Mining (OBM)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.40

Oohmedia (OML)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.45 from $2.00

Origin Energy (ORG)

• Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $11.11

Pilbara Minerals (PLS)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.00

Premier Investments (PMV)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $20.80

Perseus Mining (PRU)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.50

Qantas Airways (QAN)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $12.45 from $13.60

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $13.00 from $13.80

QBE Insurance Group (QBE)

• Downgraded to neutral from buy at Jarden; Price Target: $20.60 from $23.00

Rio Tinto (RIO)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $124.00

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $129.50

Ramelius Resources (RMS)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.90

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $4.19

Regis Resources (RRL)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $6.80

Resolute Mining (RSG)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.25

Rox Resources (RXL)

• Retained at speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $1.10

South32 (S32)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.20

• Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $3.30

Scentre Group (SCG)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $4.60

Sandfire Resources (SFR)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $15.50

SGH (SGH)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $53.60 from $53.20

Sigma Healthcare (SIG)

• Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.90

Super Retail Group (SUL)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $20.50

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $17.30

Temple & Webster Group (TPW)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $31.30

Treasury Wine Estates (TWE)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $6.40

Universal Store Holdings (UNI)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $10.20

Vault Minerals (VAU)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.00

Viridis Mining and Minerals (VMM)

• Retained at speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $2.65 from $1.55

West African Resources (WAF)

• Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.00

Woodside Energy Group (WDS)

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $27.00

Wesfarmers (WES)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $86.00

Westgold Resources (WGX)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $7.40

Whitehaven Coal (WHC)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $7.00

Woolworths Group (WOW)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $29.60

Scans