Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to rise, S&P 500 and Nasdaq bounce + Gold, copper and tech stocks rally

ASX 200 futures are up 46pts (+0.52%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

In a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks broadly higher, finished at best levels and within 1-3% of all-time highs

• Senate votes 60-40 to advance government shutdown bill but still days away from ending due to procedural requirements

• Warren Buffett sends what could be his last message to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders (as CEO)

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 gapped up, trended higher to close at best levels (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks higher and finished at best levels

• Nasdaq logged its best session since 27-May, S&P 500 within 1.2% of all-time highs

• Risk sentiment boosted by progress in Senate on ending the government shutdown, though challenges on flight delays, SNAP benefits and ongoing data vacuum remain

• Big Tech broadly higher, with Nvidia (+5.7%), Alphabet (+3.8%) and Tesla (+3.6%) leading the pack

• Gold back above US$4,100, silver rallied 4.6% and back above US$50

• Weak breadth, with the Equal-weight S&P 500 underperforming the official benchmark by ~90 bps

• Volatile week undermines US market bull case but strong corporate profit growth offers hope for year-end rally (BBG)

• Sell-side strategists highlight strong earnings to drive 2026 US stock rally as rate outlook uncertainties fade (BBG)

• Deutsche Bank strategists say earnings growth momentum carrying over into the December quarter(BBG)

STOCKS

• TSMC reports 16.9% sales growth in October the slowest since Feb-24 (BBG)

• Klook makes US IPO filing, aims to list on NYSE under ticker KLK (YF)

• Visa, Mastercard deal could save merchants more than $200bn over course of settlement period (BBG)

• Warren Buffet will no longer write annual letter or speak at Berkshire shareholder meeting (CNN)

TARIFFS

• US and China suspend port fees on each other's ships for a year (BBG)

• US import volumes expected to slow through year-end holidays and into 2026 amid tariff uncertainty (BBG)

• China grants exemptions for Nexperia chips from export controls (BBG)

• US agricultural exporters optimistic about returning trade normalcy with China after leaders' framework agreement (RT)

• Switzerland close to a deal with the US on a 15% export tariff, well below the 39% threatened in August (BBG)

CENTRAL BANKS

• BOJ board signals potential interest rate hike in December as normalisation conditions nearly met (BBG)

• RBA's Hauser says monetary policy faces challenges from limited economic capacity as inflation remains high (BBG)

• Fed Governor Miran calls for 50 bp cut in December and 25 bp cut at a minimum, argues Fed should be more dovish and warned against making policy on backward-looking data (CNBC)

• New York's Williams flags wealth gap could lead to economic downturn, factor into December rate decision (FT)

SHUTDOWN

• Senate votes 60-40 to advance government shutdown bill with support from moderate Democrats (BBG)

• Bill would fund most federal agencies through January, reverse layoffs of federal workers made during shutdown and ensure furloughed workers would receive back pay, but did not include an extension of ACA subsidies set to expire at year-end

• Despite progress, US government shutdown is still days away from ending amid procedural requirements (BBG)

• Over 10,000 flights delayed and 2,800 canceled, marking worst travel disruptions since shutdown began (WP)

ECONOMY

• Trump suggests US$2,000 tariff "dividend" could result from economic policy tax cuts (BBG)

• China CPI rose 0.2% in October due to holiday demand but seen as transient (BBG)

• China's passenger car sales fall in October for the first time in over a year amid demand challenges (BBG)

• Japan PM Takaichi proposes new multi-year fiscal target for flexible spending, urging slow interest rate hikes (RT)

• Trump proposes 50-year mortgage, but realtors say savings for homeowners would be minimal (CNBC)

ASX TODAY

• CBA Q1 trading update, cash NPAT of $2.6bn vs. $2.6bn ests, headline NIM has weakened due to the mix effects of strong growth in lower yielding liquid assets and institutional repos (CBA)

• Bendigo Bank reports Q1 cash NPAT of $120.70m (vs. $120.8m a year ago), net interest margin up 3 bps quarter-on-quarter to 1.91% (BEN)

• Deep Yellow major shareholder Paradice working on potential move to spill the board (AFR)

• Life360 to acquire Nativo in transaction valued at $120m, reports Q3 adjusted EBITDA of $24.5m vs. $17.8m ests, upgrades 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $84-88m vs. prior $72-82m guidance and $79.5m ests (360)

• Megaport halted pending announcement regarding material corporate transaction and equity raising (MP1)

• Pexa weighing selldown of UK business, hopes of securing a major bank as shareholder (The Aus)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Resources: Seems like we're back to what things were a few weeks ago, gold back above US$4,100 (Gold Miners ETF up 4.7%), Rare Earth/Strategic Metal ETF up 6.0% overnight (although PLS, LYC up 9.2% and 4.8% respectively on Monday), copper also up strongly overnight with Copper Miners ETF trading 2.7% higher.

• Was that the pullback: Markets are kicking on after a shallow pullback (maybe that was it – we'll have to see). Seeing lots of analysts bullish as Q3 results have offered strong case for equities. Local quarterly results have been decent, with solid numbers from banks and operationally clean results from names like PLS, MIN etc.

BROKER MOVES

• Aeris Resources upgraded to Buy from Hold; target up to $0.65 from $0.52 (BP)

• Monadelphous Group upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform; target up to $26.75 from $20.75 (MP1)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Tue 11 Nov: Champion Iron (CIA) – $0.109, National Australia Bank (NAB) – $0.85, Sandon Capital (SNC) – $0.005

• Wed 12 Nov: ResMed (RMD) – $0.064, Acorn Capital (ACQ) – $0.028, Dominion Income Trust (DN1) – $0.591

• Thu 13 Nov: Future Generation Australia (FGX) – $0.036

• Fri 14 Nov: TPG Telecom (TPG) – $0.09

Other ASX corporate actions today:       

• Dividends paid: None

• Earnings: OFX Group (OFX)

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: Coles (COL), Cromwell Property Group (CMW), Downer (DOW), Goodman Group (GMG), Jumbo Interactive (JIN), TPG Telecom (TPG)

Economic calendar (AEDT):

• 10:30 am: Australia Consumer Confidence (Nov)

• 11:30 am: NAB Business Confidence (Oct)

• 6:00 pm: UK Unemployment Rate (Sep)