Evening Wrap: ASX 200 slammed as Tech-wreck deepens on TNE plunge, JHX, PLS among few gainers as 10 to 1 stocks drop

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 167.3 points lower, down 1.94%.

How full is your risk bucket? 🪣🤔

Hopefully not all the way to the top given the carnage on the Aussie share market today!!!

Hardest hit: Technology (-6%) and Gold (-4.6%) stocks, but there was nowhere to hide, with all of the major ASX sectors closing in the red.

Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the S&P/ASX 200 in today's ChartWatch.

Let's dive in!

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Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 167.3 points lower at 8,469.1, 2.0% from its session high and just 0.28% from its low. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) the advancers-decliners line reflected the carnage: 264 to 23 in favour of losers 🤯.

Fund Flows: Keep scrolling... 👇

I could provide you with a waffling few paragraphs about what went down and by how much... which wouldn't change a thing – nor tell you what you didn't already know by simply looking at your portfolio. I.e., the "standard" industry Evening Wrap...

Or I could just direct you to ChartWatch. You're probably scrolling there right now...😉

Stock Specific: Tech Rekt 💥

In the first "Tech-wreck" back in 2000-2001, I saw roughly a million dollars of profits evaporate in a few months. I made that sum from a starting amount of a few thousand dollars by punting my brains out without a clue of what risk management or trend following was (although I certainly inadvertently followed the exponential trend up!).

The new word for wreck is "Rekt". It's probably an exaggeration to call today's Today's plunge in the Information Technology (XIJ) (-6.0%) sector a wreck... but it is now 27% below it's all-time high set on 19-Sep. It ain't pretty, that's for sure.

Make no mistake: A bunch of trends didn’t go my way today… but at least I could provide some potential balance via my calls within this sector – and with respect to the sector in general.

I hope you'll agree this included several warnings about the deteriorating technical trends for the XIJ over the last couple of months, how the big funds were rotating out of it consistently and aggressively, and most importantly – by putting forward several downtrends to consider as short trades, including Technology One (TNE) (-17.2%), Audinate Group (AD8) (-5.7%), Wisetech Global (WTC) (-4.6%), Appen (APX) (-4.3%) and Xero (XRO) (-3.2%).

Technology One (TNE) was included in the Downtrends Scan list in the 14-Nov edition of ChartWatch ASX Scans.

Today's best blue chip gainers

Today's worst blue chip losers

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ChartWatch

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

Analysis

Long time sufferers of my rantings here will form one of two opinions on my work on the XJO a.k.a. the “Old Tin Pot” over the past few weeks – or at least since the all time high of 9115.2 printed on 21-Oct.

1. This guy is a total dud! He only ever tells us that the price is going up and that means more often than not it will probably keep going up, or that the price is going down and that means more often than not it will probably keep going down. On 21-Oct – the absolute top of the market – he was long to his teeth, claiming to be “making hay while the sun is shining”. 👎

Or

2. This guy is a total genius! He was long all the way up until the all-time high of 21-Oct – consistently maintaining a bullish bias since shortly after the April low – despite all the uncertainty surrounding the global economy… Then, without even a consideration of earnings, valuations, the economy, or global economic and geopolitical challenges, he somehow went to 33% cash on 30-Oct (but flagged it the day before), then to 50% cash on 7-Nov, and then to 67% cash on Friday (14-Nov). 👍

Hey, your opinion is your opinion.

And if it’s No 2, I can’t even take credit for it! Because I had no idea at any point when I was reducing my exposure to Australian stocks – and flagging dozens of short selling opportunities each day – that I would be correct.

Because when I make a call, it’s simply a function of following my model and not because I’m making some bold prediction. I don’t predict.

Prediction is futile because the future is unknown! Predictions are for the brave, arrogant, or foolhardy (or a combination of the three!!! 😉). Those who think they can predict the future, particularly those who take credit for apparently doing so – are guaranteed to come a cropper at some point!

Let’s just say that one could have done far worse than my model has done since 21-Oct.

But that’s the past… what about the future? Where are Aussie stocks headed next? Well, clearly they're about to…

Hahaha! I had you going there!!! 🤣

Nope! I don’t have a clue where Aussie stocks are going next. As before, all I know is… yep cue the checklists!

Carl’s 3A’s of Trading No. 1: “ANALYSE”!

(Consistent with demand-side control = ✅ vs Consistent with supply-side control = ❌)

1. Short and long term trend ribbons: ⬇️/⬆️, short term expanding / getting stronger vs long term contracting / getting weaker, the price is below both ribbons and both ribbons are acting as a zone of dynamic excess supply = ❌❌ (long term ❌ on basis of close below today!).

2. Price action: Falling peaks and falling troughs (i.e., demand removal and supply reinforcement) = ❌.

3. Candles: Supply-side control (i.e., black-bodied candles and or upward pointing shadows) = ❌.

4. Volume: No substantially above average volume days on strong demand-side candles potentially indicating supply exhaustion and major buy the dip activity = ❌.

Carl’s 3A’s of Trading No. 2: “ACCEPT”!

❌❌❌❌❌ = Supply-side control of short and long term OTP price. Okay, it is what it is – so what are we going to do about it!? 🤔

View

Carl’s 3A’s of Trading No. 3: “ACTION / MANAGE RISK”!

Traders on TikTok drive lambos, boast 20 computer monitors full of squiggly lines and indicators, and sell trading courses for thousands of dollars (what do you think paid for the lambo!? 😉)

Traders who are disciples of demand and supply, and who follow rules, manage risk. We're risk managers first and foremost – because if you don't manage your risk – you could end up sans capital and out of the game!

Having said that, this "A" was initiated last week. For now, I remain comfortable at 1/3RP 🪣. (i.e., my personal allowable capital allocation limit (Risk Position) for my investments in Australian stocks is 33% = my "Risk Bucket" can only be filled one-third of the way. Includes longs and shorts!).

Key levels

8421 is the closest point of demand. The long term trend ribbon is the closest zone of supply (presently 8543-8685). The short term downtrend ribbon is, however, the critical zone of supply (presently 8810-8865). In the absence of other confirming demand-side control signals, the XJO must close back above this point to demonstrate the demand-side is moving back into control.

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Economy

Today

• There weren't any major economic data releases in our time zone today.

Later this week

Wednesday

• 11:30 AUS September Wage Price Index (+0.8% q/q forecast vs +0.8% q/q in June)

Thursday

• 06:00 USA Federal Reserve November FOMC Meeting Minutes

• 12:00 CHN People's Bank of China Loan Prime Rate (LPR)

  • 1-year LPR: Forecast no change at 3% p.a.

  • 5-year LPR: Forecast no change at 3.5% p.a.

Friday

• 00:30 USA October Non-Farm Payrolls

• 02:00 USA October Existing Home Sales (4.11 million forecast vs 4.06 million in September)

• 09:00 AUS November Flash Manufacturing & Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)

  • Manufacturing: vs 49.7 in October

  • Services: vs 52.5 in October

Saturday

• 01:45 USA November Flash Manufacturing & Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)

  • Manufacturing: vs 52.5 in October

  • Services: vs 54.8 in October

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Latest News

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Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +9.9% James Hardie Industries (JHX) – Q2 FY26 Results and Appointment of Chief Financial Officer.

• +5.3% Global X Ultra Short Nasdaq-100 ETF (SNAS) – No news (short Nasdaq ETF).

• +5.0% Eroad (ERD) – EROAD and Cleanaway announce agreement.

• +4.5% BetaShares US Strong Bear ETF (BBUS) – No news (short US stocks ETF).

• +4.4% BetaShares Australian Equities Strong Bear ETF (BBOZ) – No news (short ASX stocks ETF).

• +4.3% SKS Technologies Group (SKS) – SKS Technologies to acquire Delta Elcom.

• +4.2% Resolution Minerals (RML) – Institutional Roadshow Presentation.

• +3.5% GQG Partners (GQG) – Investor Presentation SlidesN.

• +3.3% Pilbara Minerals (PLS) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long-term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +2.1% Liontown Resources (LTR) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long-term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +1.7% The A2 Milk Company (A2M) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long-term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

Trading lower

• -23.0% Unico Silver (USL) – Successful $40m Placement to Fast-Track Growth Strategy, general weakness across the broader Silver sector today.

• -17.2% Technology One (TNE) – TNE FY25 Full Year Results Presentation, general weakness across the broader Information Technology sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing short-term downtrend and long-term trend is transitioning from up to down, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -12.5% Trigg Minerals (TMG) – Consolidation of Nightingale tungsten district - Amended, general weakness across the broader Gold sector today.

• -12.5% European Lithium (EUR) – EURO Listed Options Shortfall to Underwriter.

• -11.7% Catapult Sports (CAT) – 1H FY26 Results Presentation, general weakness across the broader Information Technology sector today.

• -11.7% Superloop (SLC) – No news, general weakness across the broader Information Technology sector today.

• -10.1% Race Oncology (RAC) – No news since 17-Nov Race Clinical Program Update.

• -10.1% Andean Silver (ASL) – No news, general weakness across the broader Silver sector today.

• -10.0% G50 Corp (G50) – No news, general weakness across the broader Gold sector today.

• -9.6% Sun Silver (SS1) – No news, general weakness across the broader Silver sector today.

• -9.4% Iperionx (IPX) – No news since 17-Nov IperionX Response to Short Seller Report.

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Broker Moves

29Metals (29M)

• Retained at neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $0.35

The a2 Milk Company (A2M)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $9.29

Alcoa Corporation (AAI)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $66.00

Alcidion Group (ALC)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.14 from $0.13

ALS (ALQ)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $19.45

• Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $20.75

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $26.00

Atlas Arteria (ALX)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $5.70

Amcor Plc (AMC)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $17.69 from $18.46

Abacus Storage King (ASK)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $1.50

BHP Group (BHP)

• Retained at neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $45.00

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $44.00

• Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $45.00

Boss Energy (BOE)

• Retained at underweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $2.05

BlueScope Steel (BSL)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $26.50

Catapult Sports (CAT)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $8.50

Challenger Gold (CEL)

• Initiated at speculative buy at Euroz Hartleys; Price Target: $0.30

Charter Hall Group (CHC)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $26.10 from $26.00

Chalice Mining (CHN)

• Retained at underweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $0.90

Coronado Global Resources Inc (CRN)

• Retained at neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $0.36

Capstone Copper Corp. (CSC)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $14.75

Centaurus Metals (CTM)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $0.55

Calix (CXL)

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $1.70

Core Lithium (CXO)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $0.23

Delta Lithium (DLI)

• Retained at neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $0.17

Deterra Royalties (DRR)

• Retained at neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $4.50

Deep Yellow (DYL)

• Retained at neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $1.85

Elders (ELD)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $9.45

• Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $7.93 from $8.15

• Downgraded to hold from unknown at CLSA; Price Target: $7.65 from $8.05

• Upgraded to outperform from neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $8.25 from $8.22

• Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $8.65 from $8.50

Evolution Mining (EVN)

• Retained at neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $10.20

FireFly Metals (FFM)

• Retained at underweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $1.60

• Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $1.65

Flight Centre Travel Group (FLT)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $15.40 from $15.20

Fortescue (FMG)

• Retained at neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $21.50

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $21.20

FleetPartners Group (FPR)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $3.50 from $3.40

Greatland Resources (GGP)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $12.00

Global Lithium Resources (GL1)

• Retained at neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $0.50

IGO (IGO)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $7.50

James Hardie Industries Plc (JHX)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $36.50

• Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $37.00

LendLease Group (LLC)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $6.70

Liontown Resources (LTR)

• Retained at neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $1.25

Lynas Rare Earths (LYC)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $17.00

Mader Group (MAD)

• Initiated at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $10.40

Meteoric Resources NL (MEI)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $0.30

• Retained at speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.40

Minerals 260 (MI6)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $0.45

Mineral Resources (MIN)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $55.00

Medibank Private (MPL)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.70

Myer Holdings (MYR)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $0.69 from $0.77

Newmont Corporation (NEM)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $150.00

New Hope Corporation (NHC)

• Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $4.00 from $4.10

• Retained at hold at Jefferies; Price Target: $4.20

• Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.80

• Retained at accumulate at Morgans; Price Target: $4.55 from $4.35

NIB Holdings (NHF)

• Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.60

Nickel Industries (NIC)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $1.70

Ora Banda Mining (OBM)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $1.35

Oohmedia (OML)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $1.80 from $2.00

Predictive Discovery (PDI)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $0.60

Paladin Energy (PDN)

• Retained at underweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $7.40

Pilbara Minerals (PLS)

• Retained at neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $3.60

Premier Investments (PMV)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $24.00 from $26.00

Perseus Mining (PRU)

• Retained at neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $4.60

Qantas Airways (QAN)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $12.60 from $13.40

QPM Energy (QPM)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.09

Regis Healthcare (REG)

• Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $8.00

Rio Tinto (RIO)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $136.00

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $140.00 from $119.00

• Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $112.00

Resolute Mining (RSG)

• Retained at neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $1.10

South32 (S32)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $4.00

Sandfire Resources (SFR)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $16.00

Stockland (SGP)

• Upgraded to accumulate from hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $6.50 from $5.80

Serko (SKO)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $3.45

Stanmore Resources (SMR)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $2.70

Solvar (SVR)

• Upgraded to buy from accumulate at Morgans; Price Target: $1.85

Telstra Group (TLS)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $4.80

Technology One (TNE)

• Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $45.00

Vault Minerals (VAU)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $0.85

Vista Group International (VGL)

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $4.10

WA1 Resources (WA1)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $24.80 from $25.70

• Retained at speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $28.00

Wisr (WZR)

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.07

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Scans