Evening Wrap: ASX 200 shrugs off correction with best week since 2023 as WDS and uranium stocks pop

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 92.4 points higher, up 1.13%.

Market perception that the trade gridlock between China and the US may be thawing pushed stocks to their best weekly performance in nearly two years - and to a two-month high. Investor hopes were bolstered by a statement from the Chinese Commerce Ministry indicating it was "evaluating" a request from US trade officials to begin trade negotiations.

This added fuel to the prevailing stampede back into Aussie shares, with a rebounding Energy sector (+2.0%) leading the charge, closely followed by defensive sectors Healthcare (+1.9%) and Consumer Staples (+1.7%).

In Energy, uranium stocks continued their recent resurgence with Boss Energy (BOE) (+5.3%), Bannerman Energy (BMN) (+4.1%), and Paladin Energy (PDN) (+2.8%) notable standouts.

Elsewhere, things weren't so rosy for two stocks that delivered disappointing market updates, with the share prices of Block (XYZ) (-26.7%) and Corporate Travel Management (CTD) (-10.0%) tumbling.

To make sense of all the above, I have detailed technical analysis on the Nasdaq Composite, S&P/ASX 200 in today's ChartWatch.

Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key upcoming economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 92.4 points higher at 8,238.0, 1.33% from its session low and smack–bang on its session high. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) advancers beat decliners by 191 to 79 – a margin that reflected the strong demand-side ton of the day (and indeed of the entire week!).

On the topic of weekly performance, for the week, the XJO finished up 270 points or 3.4% higher – also smack-bang on its intraweek high. That was the best week for the XJO since December 2023, and if not for that week – in over 10 years.

ChartWatch

NASDAQ Composite Index

Happy end of the Comp bear market everyone! 🥳 (click here for full size image)

Pop…And a bit of stop.

The price action of Thursday’s Comp candle remains consistent with our standing analysis of short term demand-side control – certainly the gap-up open part of it did.

Gap-ups signal a rapid and substantial shift in the thinking among market participants. Essentially, everyone on both the demand-side and supply-side instantly believed the fundamentals justified higher stock prices. It’s a key consensus signal that trend followers place great importance on.

As with any large price increase, the shallowness of any subsequent pullback is critical. Shallow pullbacks after a large price increase signals the market is comfortable with the rise, in essence, the asset is not any more expensive after the rise than before it.

Think about that idea for a second. It’s super important for your understanding of how markets work!

Typically, in regular human world (as opposed to investor world), if the price of something spikes, the usual human emotion is to believe it’s more “expensive”.

In investor world, stock prices aren’t necessarily more expensive just because they went up – stock prices are a reflection of earnings – and if earnings went up commensurate with price, then value has been maintained.

There was, however, a modest pullback from the high of Thursday’s candle creating a small, black body. But! We must consider the gap as representative of excess demand on the day – and it’s not part of the body.

So, you kinda need to imagine a white part of Thursday’s candle that extends down to Wednesday’s high.

If we do, it paints a very different picture of the demand-supply environment for Thursday than the stock-standard small black candle that many might otherwise perceive.

Anyways, long story short – the Comp keeps marching on – V-shaping its way out of this bear market*. The supply that did come in, came in exactly where we expected it to – smack-bang at the long term trend ribbon = the current zone of supply to watch.

We’ll see how the candles fall from here. Significant supply side showings in the long term trend ribbon are a potential danger to the prevailing short term trend. Long black bodies and or upward pointing shadows would indicate we’ve found the latent supply that one must assume is waiting in the system somewhere!

I.e., those individuals who don’t believe this rally, missed selling the first time on the way down, and have been patiently waiting for prices to return to a suitable level to reduce their risk.

*Thursday’s high was 17922.8. Type into your calculator 14784 +20%. Equals 17740. So, believe it or not we have rallied over 20% from the bear market low. Many traders perceive this as the official signal a bear market is over. Happy end of the Comp bear market everyone! 🥳

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

Anything the Comp can do we can do better (click here for full size image)

It seems anything the Comp can do we can do better.

It was almost the perfect week in terms of trend, price action, and candles for the XJO.

Read that sentence again – because you won’t get to say it very often.

But, looking at the week that was in demand and supply, and indeed since the unbroken run since the 7169 low in terms of price action (there have been no peaks or troughs since the 7-Apr candle), the current rally signifies an absolute wall of motivated demand and a near-total vacuum of motivated supply.

The cash wants back in. The sellers don’t want to leave.

Consensus – exactly what a trend follower loves to see in a chart.

Ditto on previous session’s analysis here. There’s absolutely no reason not to stay the course – a course which to be fair I set out as early as that definitive 22-Apr candle.

That was the key “You shall not pass” pass moment vis-à-vis the demand-side versus nervous sellers and marauding short sellers looking for the beginning of the next leg down!

There’s really very little more analysis to do here. While the candles remain demand-side in nature, I have zero reason to doubt the market’s conviction in this rally.

8353 is still an area of interest – a potential point of supply. Alternatively, the long term trend ribbon remains the key zone of demand, it kicks in around 8075.

Economy

Today

• AUS Retail Sales March m/m: +0.3% vs +0.4% forecast and +0.2% in February

Later this week

Friday

• ALL DAY CHN May Day Bank Holiday

• 20:30 Non-Farm Employment Data April

  • Employment Change m/m: +129,000 forecast vs +228,000 in March

  • Average Hourly Earnings m/m: +0.3% forecast vs +0.3% in March

  • Unemployment Rate: 4.2% forecast vs 4.2% in March

Saturday

• ALL DAY AUS Parliamentary Elections (forecast 🤔???)

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +200.0% Dateline Resources (DTR) – US Presidential Recognition - OTCQB Listing.

• +14.3% Warriedar Resources (WA8) – No news since 01-May Ricciardo Delivers Australia's Largest Open-Pit Sb Resource, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and long term trend is transitioning from down to up, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +14.0% Clarity Pharmaceuticals (CU6) – Change in substantial holding (very likely something going on with short sellers here…).

• +11.0% Dimerix (DXB) – Continued positive response to 01-May Dimerix Licenses DMX-200 in the US, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈

• +7.7% EBR Systems (EBR) – No news, bounced in the wake of the recent sharp selloff.

• +7.0% Koonenberry Gold (KNB) – No news 30-Apr Multiple zones of visible gold in sixth drill hole at Enmore, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +7.0% Cettire (CTT) – Becoming a substantial holder (very likely something going on with short sellers here…).

• +6.9% Kingsgate Consolidated (KCN) – No news 01-May On Market Share Buy-Back, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +6.5% Adairs (ADH) – No news 🤔.

• +6.4% Nickel Industries (NIC) – Continued positive response to 29-Apr Quarterly Activities Report.

• +6.2% Regal Partners (RPL) – No news 🤔.

• +5.4% Neuren Pharmaceuticals (NEU) – Neuren appoints Daryl DeKarske to executive team.

• +5.3% Boss Energy (BOE) – Continued positive response to 29-Apr March 2025 Quarterly Results, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and long term trend is transitioning from down to up, added to ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list yesterday 🔎📈

• +4.8% Droneshield (DRO) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +4.8% Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈

Trading lower

• -26.7% Block (XYZ) – Quarterly Report, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -10.0% Corporate Travel Management (CTD) – FY25 Outlook Update, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -4.9% Zip Co. (ZIP) – Change in substantial holding (very likely something going on with short sellers here…), fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -4.1% WEB Travel Group (WEB) – No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -4.1% Computershare (CPU) – No news, downgraded to sell from neutral at UBS.

• -3.0% WA1 Resources (WA1) – Continued negative response to 01-May Board Changes, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -2.9% Westgold Resources (WGX) – Continued negative response to 30-AprMarch 2025 Quarterly Results.

• -2.5% Appen (APX) – No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -2.5% BetaShares Australian Strong Bear ETF (BBOZ) – No news, short ASX equities ETF.

Broker Moves

• Acrow (ACF)

  • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $1.320

• Auckland International Airport (AIA)

  • Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: NZ$8.66

• Aristocrat Leisure (ALL)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $77.00 from $82.00

• AMA Group (AMA)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.100 from $0.080

  • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $0.120 from $0.090

• Amcor (AMC)

  • Retained at outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $18.00 from $17.00

  • Retained at buy at Jefferies; Price Target: $18.03 from $19.56

  • Retained at overweight at JP Morgan; Price Target: $19.00 from $17.20

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $18.16 from $18.20

  • Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $14.00 from $15.25

• Aurelia Metals (AMI)

  • Initiated at buy at Moelis Australia; Price Target: $0.400

• Amotiv (AOV)

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $10.90 from $12.60

• Airtasker (ART)

  • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $0.550 from $0.560

• ASX (ASX)

  • Retained at sell at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $62.00

• Bapcor (BAP)

  • Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $5.40

• Baby Bunting Group (BBN)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $2.41 from $2.42

  • Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $1.800 from $1.900

  • Upgraded at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $2.15

• Bluebet (BBT)

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.460

• BHP Group (BHP)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $45.00

• Beach Energy (BPT)

  • Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $1.270

• Bluescope Steel (BSL)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $28.70

• Codan (CDA)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $18.50

• Champion Iron (CIA)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $7.30

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $5.70 from $5.90

• Coles Group (COL)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $21.00

  • Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $19.00 from $19.10

• Computershare (CPU)

  • Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $38.00

  • Downgraded to sell from neutral at UBS; Price Target: $39.00

• Coronado Global Resources (CRN)

  • Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.200 from $0.280

• Corporate Travel Management (CTD)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $17.55 from $18.85

• DUG Technology (DUG)

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $2.18 from $2.33

• Endeavour Group (EDV)

  • Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $4.50

• Fletcher Building (FBU)

  • Retained at sell at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $2.85

• Fortescue (FMG)

  • Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $16.79 from $16.85

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $17.50

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $20.00 from $21.00

• Healius (HLS)

  • Retained at sell at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $1.200

• HMC Capital (HMC)

  • Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $6.30 from $7.35

• Harmoney Corp (HMY)

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $1.020 from $0.920

• Integral Diagnostics (IDX)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $3.61

• IDP Education (IEL)

  • Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $11.10

• IGO (IGO)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $4.55 from $4.60

• Ioneer (INR)

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.300

• IPH (IPH)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $6.75

• Judo Capital (JDO)

  • Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $1.600

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.700 from $1.850

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $2.10 from $2.30

  • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $1.750 from $2.08

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $2.20 from $2.50

• Karoon Energy (KAR)

  • Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $1.670

• Light & Wonder (LNW)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $173.50 from $184.60

• Microba Life Sciences (MAP)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.260 from $0.360

• Mirvac Group (MGR)

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $2.28

• Mineral Resources (MIN)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $20.00

• Monash IVF Group (MVF)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.250

• Noumi (NOU)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.245 from $0.250

• Northern Minerals (NTU)

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.040 from $0.030

• News Corporation (NWS)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $270.00 from $273.00

• Ora Banda Mining (OBM)

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.050

• Orora (ORA)

  • Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $2.40

• Origin Energy (ORG)

  • Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $9.26

• Paladin Energy (PDN)

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $10.10

• Platinum Asset Management (PTM)

  • Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.580

  • Retained at sell at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $0.560

• QBE Insurance Group (QBE)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $25.00

• QPM Energy (QPM)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.100 from $0.110

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.130 from $0.120

• Qube (QUB)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $4.65

• REA Group (REA)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $60.00 from $61.00

• Ramsay Health Care (RHC)

  • Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $38.70

• Rio Tinto (RIO)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $130.00

• RMA Global (RMY)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.100

• Regis Resources (RRL)

  • Retained at sell at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $4.25 from $4.15

• Siteminder (SDR)

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $7.11 from $7.20

• Stockland (SGP)

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $5.37

• Sigma Healthcare (SIG)

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $3.45

• Santos (STO)

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $6.92

• Woodside Energy Group (WDS)

  • Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $22.90 from $24.20

  • Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $26.00

• Whitehaven Coal (WHC)

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $5.15

• Worley (WOR)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $15.65 from $17.90

• Woolworths Group (WOW)

  • Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $31.85 from $30.75

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $33.00

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $36.50 from $36.10

  • Retained at hold at Jefferies; Price Target: $29.50

  • Retained at underweight at JP Morgan; Price Target: $30.50 from $29.00

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $33.60 from $30.80

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $33.00

  • Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $31.80 from $31.00

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $36.00

  • Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $31.00

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $32.00 from $31.50

• Wisetech Global (WTC)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $128.00

• Xero (XRO)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $198.00

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $201.00

Scans