Market Wraps

Evening Wrap: ASX 200 scrapes narrow win on rebounding resources, tech stocks, plus uranium's big day out

Wed 03 Jul 24, 5:25pm (AEST)

Stocks in article

anz
MktCap:
-
bhp
MktCap:
-
bot
MktCap:
-
boe
MktCap:
-
chn
MktCap:
-
crn
MktCap:
-
ctt
MktCap:
-
dro
MktCap:
-
drr
MktCap:
-
dyl
MktCap:
-
ltr
MktCap:
-
nhc
MktCap:
-
pdn
MktCap:
-
s32
MktCap:
-
sfr
MktCap:
-
slc
MktCap:
-
wa1
MktCap:
-
wbc
MktCap:
-
whc
MktCap:
-
zip
MktCap:
-

Commodities in article

Share article

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 21.7 points higher, up 0.28%.

A rebound in Resources and Tech stocks helped the ASX 200 to a narrow win today.

Cettire (CTT), Red Hill Minerals (RHI), and the indominable Droneshield (DRO) were among the biggest winners, while Chalice Mining (CHN), Superloop (SLC) and Liontown Resources (LTR) were among the biggest losers.

Uranium stocks rallied sharply with few obvious catalysts.

For all this and much more...

Let's dive in!


Today in Review

Wed 03 Jul 24, 4:33pm (AEST)

Name Value % Chg
Major Indices
ASX 200 7,739.9 +0.28%
All Ords 7,986.1 +0.33%
Small Ords 2,960.2 +0.37%
All Tech 3,077.8 +0.36%
Emerging Companies 2,135.8 +0.80%
Currency
AUD/USD 0.6672 +0.08%
US Futures
S&P 500 5,565.25 -0.06%
Dow Jones 39,660.0 -0.07%
Nasdaq 20,253.25 -0.01%
Name Value % Chg
Sector
Information Technology 2,315.1 +1.37%
Materials 17,136.7 +1.11%
Real Estate 3,575.3 +0.90%
Energy 10,325.4 +0.56%
Health Care 43,636.7 +0.52%
Consumer Staples 12,275.5 +0.36%
Consumer Discretionary 3,476.9 +0.18%
Industrials 6,739.6 -0.34%
Financials 7,556.6 -0.36%
Communication Services 1,476.2 -0.41%
Utilities 9,237.6 -0.55%

Enjoying the Evening Wrap? Sign up to get it sent directly to your inbox after every trading day.


Markets

XJO Intraday Chart 3 July 2024
ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 21.7 points higher at 7,739.9, 0.28% from its session low and just 0.05% from its high. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO), advancers beat decliners by a narrow 138 to 124.

Seven of the eleven major ASX sectors rose today in only a moderately broad-based move higher. It was good to see Information Technology (XIJ) (+1.4%) bounce back, likely led by another record on the Nasdaq in the USA (see ChartWatch for the latest technical analysis on the Nasdaq).

Thankfully, Materials (XMJ) (+1.1%) also bounced back today. Base metals and iron ore prices are rebounding from their June lows (see ChartWatch for the latest technical analysis on iron ore). Fingers crossed prices can keep rallying because there are some super-beaten down stocks in this sector.

Company

Last Price

Change $

Change %

1mo %

1yr %

Stanmore Resources (SMR)

$3.90

+$0.22

+6.0%

+17.1%

+54.5%

Vulcan Energy Resources (VUL)

$4.09

+$0.21

+5.4%

-19.5%

-2.4%

Lynas Rare Earths (LYC)

$6.34

+$0.21

+3.4%

-5.8%

-7.4%

Coronado Global Resources (CRN)

$1.385

+$0.045

+3.4%

+18.4%

-9.8%

Alumina (AWC)

$1.725

+$0.055

+3.3%

-8.7%

+24.5%

Mineral Resources (MIN)

$55.33

+$1.67

+3.1%

-23.0%

-22.5%

Iluka Resources (ILU)

$6.76

+$0.16

+2.4%

-7.1%

-39.2%

Sandfire Resources (SFR)

$8.79

+$0.2

+2.3%

-6.1%

+49.0%

Resolute Mining (RSG)

$0.560

+$0.01

+1.8%

+3.7%

+43.6%

Fortescue (FMG)

$21.92

+$0.35

+1.6%

-11.5%

-1.2%

Deterra Royalties (DRR)

$4.08

+$0.06

+1.5%

-13.2%

-11.3%

South32 (S32)

$3.78

+$0.05

+1.3%

-4.5%

+0.5%

IGO (IGO)

$5.70

+$0.07

+1.2%

-20.2%

-62.1%

Rio Tinto (RIO)

$121.11

+$1.48

+1.2%

-5.8%

+5.6%

Arcadium Lithium (LTM)

$4.92

+$0.06

+1.2%

-25.1%

0%

BHP Group (BHP)

$43.65

+$0.49

+1.1%

-2.6%

-3.0%

A reprieve for some of the super-beaten down stocks in the Materials sector

Real Estate Investment Trusts (XPJ) (+0.92%) also bounced, unwinding some of their steep losses from yesterday. Benchmark yields are little changed after the recent run up which has hobbled Aussie property stocks – so this may only be a stay of execution…

Company

Last Price

Change $

Change %

1mo %

1yr %

HMC Capital (HMC)

$7.14

+$0.16

+2.3%

-1.2%

+41.9%

Stockland (SGP)

$4.25

+$0.08

+1.9%

-7.2%

+5.5%

Scentre Group (SCG)

$3.19

+$0.06

+1.9%

+0.3%

+20.4%

Homeco Daily Needs Reit (HDN)

$1.185

+$0.02

+1.7%

-4.4%

+0.9%

Waypoint Reit (WPR)

$2.28

+$0.03

+1.3%

-5.0%

-12.0%

Charter Hall Group (CHC)

$11.02

+$0.12

+1.1%

-10.8%

+2.9%

Goodman Group (GMG)

$34.64

+$0.35

+1.0%

+1.5%

+72.6%

Bounce in Real Estate my only be a stay of execution…

The four that did it tough today were all pretty close together in terms of losses (approx. 0.3-0.5%). Utilities (XUJ) (-0.55%) and Financials (XFJ) (-0.36%) reprised their positions from yesterday at the bottom of the sector performance list. Possibly both the victims of their respective FY24 success as there appears to be a smidge of new FY rotation going on.

The only other major item of note for me was the bounce (there's that word again!) in ASX uranium stocks. The uranium price was flat overnight as far as I could tell and there wasn't a great deal of movement in their US counterparts. Oversold, perhaps. Some of them bouncing from their respective long term uptrend ribbons, perhaps (i.e., your guess is as good as mine)!

Company

Last Price

Change $

Change %

1mo %

1yr %

Deep Yellow (DYL)

$1.405

+$0.09

+6.8%

-15.1%

+92.5%

Paladin Energy (PDN)

$13.15

+$0.76

+6.1%

-17.5%

+80.1%

Boss Energy (BOE)

$4.19

+$0.19

+4.8%

-10.1%

+36.0%

Lotus Resources (LOT)

$0.340

+$0.015

+4.6%

-28.4%

+100.0%

Bannerman Energy (BMN)

$3.22

+$0.11

+3.5%

-27.1%

+107.7%

Silex Systems (SLX)

$5.15

+$0.08

+1.6%

-16.0%

+30.7%

Nexgen Energy (NXG)

$10.51

+$0.13

+1.3%

-10.3%

+54.3%

Uranium stocks performances today

ChartWatch

Nasdaq Composite Index

Nasdaq Composite Index chart 2 July 2024
Q. What's wrong with the Nasdaq?

Ahhh, the Nasdaq. There's just so much wrong with it right now. πŸ€”

It's plagued by over-valuation, by the concentration of gains in just a few stocks like NVIDIA, by irrational behaviour of overly exuberant investors, by the stupidity / pervasive influence of passive funds who just buy for the sake of buying, and by false hopes the Fed will cut rates to save the US economy.

Or perhaps it's just a picture of excess demand and that means all one should do is be invested.

One of these two positions is probably going to turn out to be right. Personally, I'd go with the second and not worry one iota about the first.

But, of course, I will watch the price action carefully for signs the supply-side is gaining ascendancy and adjust my exposure accordingly. Rinse. Repeat.

(To answer the question: Absolutely NOTHING! 😁)

Iron Ore 62% CFR China Futures (Front month, back-adjusted) (SGX)

Iron Ore 62pct (Front month, back-adjusted) SGX chart 3 July
Not as bad as it looked last time...

The last time we covered iron ore was in ChartWatch in the Evening Wrap on 24 June.

In that update, we were waiting to see whether demand-side or supply-side candles would appear in the all-important 94-99.20 demand zone. Curiously (for me anyway) we didn’t quite get all the way to the demand zone, bouncing from 101.95 instead – and with some very decent demand-side candles too.

The close above the 109 point of supply is impressive, as is the close above the dynamic supply of the short term trend ribbon. Both events occurred on the 1 July candle.

I note the lower shadow on the 2 July candle that dipped back into the short term trend ribbon. The high close in that candle suggests the short term trend ribbon is now offering dynamic support. This is an important delineator between short term downtrend and uptrend.

Today’s candle, still live, so far appears to be confirming the change of the short term trend back to up.

The long term trend, as evidenced by the dark pink long term trend ribbon, remains down. Coincidently, the dynamic supply of that long term downtrend ribbon is converging with the 114 point of supply.

A close above those key points of supply will be interesting, and with the right price action (rising peaks and rising troughs – preferably seeing the latter above the long term trend ribbon) would change the long term trend to up.

As always, black-bodied candles and or upward pointing shadows, and a return to falling peaks and falling troughs would indicate the supply side has reasserted its control.

Things are looking up for iron ore 🀞, but I’m not going to get ahead of things here. The best way to describe this chart is: Not as bad as it looked last time!


Economy

Today

  • AUS Retail Sales June

    • +0.6% vs +0.3% forecast and +0.1% in May = Big beat!

    • WA led the spending splurge, up 1.3%

    • Food retailing rose 0.7% (+6.1% in liquor!), Household goods retailing rose 1.1%, Clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing rose 1.6%, Department stores fell 0.9%

  • CHN Caixin Services PMI June

    • 51.2 vs 53.4 forecast and 54.0 in May = Big miss!

    • Readings above 50 indicate expansion, so services sector still expanded, but at a slowing rate

Later this week

Wednesday

  • 17:15 EUR Services PMIs Various June

Thursday

  • 00:00 USA Services PMI June (52.5 forecast vs 53.8 in May)

  • 04:00 USA FOMC June Meeting Minutes

  • All Day USA July 4 Public Holiday - non trading day

Friday

  • 22:30 Non-Farm Employment Change, Average Hourly Earnings m/m, Unemployment Rate June

    • +189K forecast vs +272K in May; +0.3% forecast vs +0.4% in May; 4.0% forecast vs 4.0% in May


Latest News


Interesting Movers

Trading higher

  • +12.3% Cettire (CTT) - No news, rebound is small in the context of the massive fall that followed Cettire Confirms China Launch, Provides FY24 Update

  • +11.4% Red Hill Minerals (RHI) - Special Dividend, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends πŸ”ŽπŸ“ˆ

  • +8.2% Zip Co. (ZIP) - No news, initiated at positive at E&P, price target $1.81, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends (check daily ChartWatch ASX Scans Lists - strongest uptrends!)πŸ”ŽπŸ“ˆ

  • +6.9% Nuix (NXL) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends (check daily ChartWatch ASX Scans Lists - strongest uptrends!) πŸ”ŽπŸ“ˆ

  • +6.8% Deep Yellow (DYL) - Continued positive response to yesterday's Deep Yellow Advances Tumas Project Financing, strong rally across most ASX uranium stocks today, closed back above long term uptrend ribbon / bouncing out of long term uptrend ribbon πŸ”ŽπŸ“ˆ

  • +6.3% Droneshield (DRO) - No news, rise is consistent with the most wonderful prevailing short and long term uptrends (check daily ChartWatch ASX Scans Lists - strongest uptrends!) πŸ”ŽπŸ“ˆ

  • +6.2% Botanix Pharmaceuticals (BOT) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends (check daily ChartWatch ASX Scans Lists - strongest uptrends!) πŸ”ŽπŸ“ˆ

  • +6.1% Paladin Energy (PDN) - No news, strong rally across most ASX uranium stocks today πŸ€”

  • +6.0% Stanmore Resources (SMR) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends (check daily ChartWatch ASX Scans Lists - strongest uptrends!) πŸ”ŽπŸ“ˆ

  • +5.4% Vulcan Energy Resources (VUL) - No news, trying to continue its bounce off the long term uptrend ribbon πŸ”ŽπŸ“ˆ

  • +4.8% Boss Energy (BOE) - No news, strong rally across most ASX uranium stocks today πŸ€”

  • +4.6% Lotus Resources (LOT) - No news, strong rally across most ASX uranium stocks today πŸ€”

Trading lower

  • -19.5% Chalice Mining (CHN) - NEWS, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends! πŸ”ŽπŸ“‰

  • -5.7% Superloop (SLC) - NEWS, also several broker moves, see Broker Notes section below

  • -4.7% Liontown Resources (LTR) - Fall out from yesterday's NEWS, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends (check daily ChartWatch ASX Scans Lists - strongest downtrends!) πŸ”ŽπŸ“‰

  • -3.8% Monadelphous Group (MND) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends (check daily ChartWatch ASX Scans Lists - strongest downtrends!) πŸ”ŽπŸ“‰

  • -2.7% Seek (SEK) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends (check daily ChartWatch ASX Scans Lists - strongest downtrends!) πŸ”ŽπŸ“‰


Broker Notes

Adore Beauty Group (ABY)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $1.50 from $1.70

Acrow (ACF)

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $1.35

Altium (ALU)

  • Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $68.50 from $66.75

ANZ Group (ANZ)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $28.00

Australian Vanadium (AVL)

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.08

Bendigo and Adelaide Bank (BEN)

  • Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $9.50

BHP Group (BHP)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $48.40 from $49.00

Challenger (CGF)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $7.50

Charter Hall Group US Prohibited (CHC)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $13.50

Coronado Global Resources (CRN)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $1.70 from $1.55

Cygnus Metals (CY5)

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.30 from $0.50

Deterra Royalties (DRR)

  • Upgraded to buy from neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $4.70 from $5.00

Fortescue (FMG)

  • Retained at sell at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $16.20 from $16.90

G8 Education (GEM)

  • Upgraded to outperform from neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.35 from $1.26

Light & Wonder (LNW)

  • Initiated at buy at Bank of America; Price Target: $183.00

Liontown Resources (LTR)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.85

  • Upgraded to neutral from sell at Citi; Price Target: $1.00

Monadelphous Group (MND)

  • Downgraded to hold from buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $14.00 from $15.40

New Hope Corporation (NHC)

  • Retained at sell at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $3.90 from $3.60

Rio Tinto (RIO)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $137.00 from $138.90

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $142.00

South32 (S32)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $4.30 from $4.00

Sandfire Resources (SFR)

  • Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $8.70 from $8.20

Superloop (SLC)

  • Retained at overweight at JP Morgan; Price Target: $1.90 from $1.60

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $1.65

  • Retained at overweight at Wilsons; Price Target: $1.61

Tuas (TUA)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $5.25 from $4.50

WA1 Resources (WA1)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $28.00

Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC)

  • Retained at sell at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $24.10

Whitehaven Coal (WHC)

  • Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $8.10 from $7.40

Zip Co. (ZIP)

  • Initiated at positive at E&P; Price Target: $1.81


Scans

Top Gainers

Code Company Last % Chg
WTM Waratah Minerals Ltd $0.24 +92.00%
MMM Marley Spoon Se $0.037 +85.00%
AI1 Adisyn Ltd $0.033 +57.14%
AL3 AML3D Ltd $0.135 +37.76%
MAUCA Magnetic Resource... $1.00 +36.99%
View all top gainers

Top Fallers

Code Company Last % Chg
APL Associate Global ... $0.10 -25.93%
NPM Newpeak Metals Ltd $0.018 -25.00%
OVT Ovanti Ltd $0.012 -20.00%
CHN Chalice Mining Ltd $1.245 -17.82%
CL8 Carly Holdings Ltd $0.014 -17.65%
View all top fallers

52 Week Highs

Code Company Last % Chg
WTM Waratah Minerals Ltd $0.24 +92.00%
AL3 AML3D Ltd $0.135 +37.76%
MAUCA Magnetic Resource... $1.00 +36.99%
ZGL ZICOM Group Ltd $0.08 +21.21%
SPZ Smart Parking Ltd $0.535 +13.83%
View all 52 week highs

52 Week Lows

Code Company Last % Chg
OVT Ovanti Ltd $0.012 -20.00%
GRV Greenvale Energy Ltd $0.03 -14.29%
SBR Sabre Resources Ltd $0.015 -11.77%
OD6 OD6 Metals Ltd $0.039 -9.30%
CUS Copper Search Ltd $0.056 -8.20%
View all 52 week lows

Near Highs

Code Company Last % Chg
WHC Whitehaven Coal Ltd $8.88 +3.38%
AN3PK Australia and New... $101.61 +0.21%
LPGD Loftus Peak Globa... $4.73 +0.43%
DCGPA Decmil Group Ltd $0.335 0.00%
MAU Magnetic Resource... $1.22 -2.40%
View all near highs

Relative Strength Index (RSI) Oversold

Code Company Last % Chg
SVL Silver Mines Ltd $0.158 +5.00%
USHY Global X Usd High... $10.14 +0.30%
IMM Immutep Ltd $0.285 -1.72%
VLUE Vaneck MSCI Inter... $25.00 -0.04%
CNEW Vaneck China New ... $5.66 -1.65%
View all RSI oversold

Written By

Carl Capolingua

Content Editor

Carl has over 30-years investing experience, helping investors navigate several bull and bear markets over this time. He is a well respected markets commentator who specialises in how the global macro impacts Australian and US equities. Carl has a passion for technical analysis and has taught his unique brand of price-action trend following to thousands of Aussie investors.

Get the latest news and insights direct to your inbox

Subscribe free

Get free post-market insights with our Evening Wrap

Create an account to receive our concise, data-driven post-market recap, sent directly to your inbox, every day.

Along with the Evening Wrap, you'll join 100k+ investors who receive our Morning Wrap and Weekend Newsletter.