These ASX stocks enjoyed the biggest upgrades and price target bumps this week

We’ve all heard the saying “Winners are grinners”, but is it the case that winners exclusively enjoy the biggest broker upgrades and price target bumps?

Well, yes and no. Generally, stocks that report better than expected/good news do receive rating upgrades. But! If that good news causes a stock’s price to rise to a point where a particular broker no longer sees value in it, that stock might find itself with a rating downgrade.

The opposite is also true. A stock whose price gets belted on bad news may find itself the recipient of a rating upgrade from a broker who now views it as trading at a better valuation.

Price targets, on the other hand, tend to go in the direction of the share price. So, if a stock rises in price, brokers tend to reflect that in their new price target and vice versa.

There are some great examples of the vagaries of broker ratings and price target changes in this week’s lists!

Consider sleep apnea device maker Resmed Inc (ASX: RMD). It plunged around 15% last week on news Eli Lilly had seen positive results for its obesity drugs. Fewer obese people could mean fewer customers for RMD’s products. Broker CLSA viewed the drop in RMD’s share price as a buying opportunity, upgrading its rating on the stock from OUTPERFORM to BUY.

Elsewhere, property developer Mirvac Group (ASX: MGR) issued a trading update on Friday that saw its shares dip over 6%. Broker Citi said MGR’s price now represented “limited downside”, and that it now had an “attractive” valuation. As a result, Citi upgraded its rating on MGR to BUY from NEUTRAL.

Contrasting RMD and MGR, Insurance Australia Group (ASX: IAG) provided the market with a fantastic market update that saw its shares pop over 10%. Unfortunately, that made IAG a little too rich for broker Jarden’s blood, who promptly downgraded its rating on the stock from BUY to OVERWEIGHT.

In other interesting moves detailed below, watch out for broker UBS's slashing its price targets on several major ASX lithium stocks. Lower lithium minerals price forecasts are to blame.

There are plenty of other interesting broker moves for the period – and you can only get this level of detail on what they’re up to from us – so let’s dive in!

How to read broker recommendations 🔎

Typically, there are two major components of a broker’s view:

Rating: A call to action, usually along the lines of buy, hold, or sell, but depending on the broker’s ratings system, can be somewhere in between (e.g., accumulate or add is typically between a hold and a buy).

Price target (PT): The price at which the broker expects the stock will be trading at some point in the future, generally within the next 12 months.

Broker upgrades since Wednesday 26 June

Biggest broker rating upgrades since Wednesday 26 June. Price Target Upside/Downside (“PT Upside%”) values in the last column are based on closing prices on Tuesday 2 July.

From the brokers:

UBS upgrades Collins Foods (ASX: CKF) to BUY from NEUTRAL

• “A resilient result in our view, given the tough consumer environment - materially better than the market had feared”

• “Our FY25-28E EPS reduces -16% to -17%, but we still forecast FY25-28E EBITDA growth of 6%/14%/12%/10%”

• The price target was increased to $11.50 from $10.95

Bell Potter upgrades Paladin Energy (ASX: PDN) to BUY from HOLD

• “[PDN shareholders] will gain exposure to one of the pre-eminent uranium assets in the Athabasca Basin for, what we can gather, is an attractive price”

• “We argue the new PDN is bigger and better”

• “We see this as a potential buying opportunity Irrespective of the transaction”

• The price target was increased to $16.10 from $15.70

UBS upgrades Universal Store Holdings (ASX: UNI) to BUY from NEUTRAL

• “Despite downside risk to consensus near-term, after becoming more constructive on the Australian consumer and given the strong medium-term earnings growth outlook, we upgrade UNI to Buy”

• “The 1yr fwd P/E of 11x (14% disc to AX1 vs 9% avg since listing) presenting an attractive risk/reward”

• The price target was lowered to $6.00 from $6.25.

Broker downgrades since Wednesday 26 June

Biggest broker rating downgrades since Wednesday 26 June. Price Target Upside/Downside (“PT Upside%”) values in the last column are based on closing prices on Tuesday 2 July.

From the brokers:

UBS downgrades AGL Energy (ASX: AGL) to NEUTRAL from BUY

• “We see potential upside from here balanced with downside risks arising from unplanned generation outages and the risk of higher retail costs”

• “AGL embarks on a highly complex retail transformation from SAP to Kaluza”

• The price target was lowered to $10.85 from $11.25

Macquarie downgrades Strike Energy (ASX: STX) to NEUTRAL from BUY

• “We see more attractive opportunities elsewhere with stronger FCF (KAR, COE) or more probable M&A potential (COE, CVN)”

• The price target was retained at $0.22

Biggest broker price target changes since Wednesday 26 June

Biggest broker price target changes since Wednesday 26 June. Price Target Upside/Downside (“PT Upside%”) values in the last column are based on closing prices as on Tuesday 2 July.

From the brokers:

Morgan Stanley increases price target on IAG Group (ASX: IAG) to $6.60 from $5.45 (+21%)

• “Valuation is full – FY25E P/E of approximately 18x is a historical high”

• “Managing volumes vs. margins also remain a concern”

• Rating is retained at EQUAL-WEIGHT

Macquarie increases price target on James Hardie Industries (ASX: JHX) to $66.60 from $55.00 (+21%)

• “We were impressed again by the quality of people, the propositional positioning and the operational leverage to a recovering market”

• “We think the stock offers value after the recent correction. While macro conditions are a risk, JHX is positioned for recovery”

• Rating is maintained at OUTPERFORM

UBS lowers price target on Pilbara Minerals (ASX: PLS) to $2.50 from $2.70 (-7.4%), on IGO (ASX: IGO) to $5.95 from $7.35 (-19%), on Patriot Battery Metals (ASX: PMT) to $1.00 from $1.30 (-23%), and on Liontown Resources (ASX: LTR) to $1.00 from $1.40 (-28%)

• “We update our [lithium minerals] supply-demand model while taking prices lower 6-10% across the curve (for spodumene)”

• “With increased uncertainty on the long-term demand outlook ex-China and continued opaqueness on near-term supply additions from China/Africa, we remain underweight the sector”

• Rating is maintained at: PLS-SELL, IGO-SELL, PMT-BUY, LTR-NEUTRAL