Evening Wrap: ASX 200 slumps on escalating Mid-East conflict, but golden lining for war winners energy and gold stocks
Fri 04 Oct 24, 5:21pm (AEDT)
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/Evening Wrap: ASX 200 mining and energy shares hit as oil, base metals dip
Market Wraps
Evening Wrap: ASX 200 mining and energy shares hit as oil, base metals dip
Thu 23 Nov 23, 6:15pm (AEDT)
Stocks in article
The S&P/ASX 200 closed 44.2 points lower, down 0.63%.
The last four trading session delivered only gradual gains or losses. Today's 0.63% fall felt decidedly more significant, and investors will hope it doesn't spell a return to the dark days of the August-October rout.
Let's dive in.
Today in Review
Thu 23 Nov 23, 4:21pm (AEST)
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Markets
ASX 200 Session Chart
The S&P/ASX200 edged lower, but there was still plenty of action under the surface (Source: Market Index)
The S&P/ASX200 (XJO) finished 44.2 points lower at 7,073.4, smack-bang on its session low. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300, advancers lagged decliners by a considerable 102 to 172.
When a security finishes trading on it's session lows, it's usually a good sign that selling pressure persisted right up until the bell. Also, given the decisiveness of such a close, there's probably a few sell orders which only stopped because of the closing bell.
That, and the lousy market breadth suggests it could be a dour end the trading week tomorrow. Perhaps the only saving grace is that US markets are only going to be open a few hours of the next two trading sessions due to the Thanksgiving Holiday.
Back to today, there weren't many places to hide. The two best sectors were the Telecommunication Services Sector (XTJ) +0.2% and the Real-estate Sector (XPJ) +0.1% - but only just.
Lower base metals prices in London and New York, particularly in copper, nickel, lead and zinc hurt local mining companies. The Materials Sector (XMJ) -1.4% was the worst performing sector today.
Company | Last Price | Change $ | Change % | 1-month Perf % | 1-year Perf % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chalice Mining (CHN) | $1.465 | -$0.085 | -5.5% | -18.6% | -68.5% |
Syrah Resources (SYR) | $0.630 | -$0.035 | -5.3% | -14.9% | -73.1% |
Nickel Industries (NIC) | $0.730 | -$0.04 | -5.2% | -4.6% | -21.9% |
Adriatic Metals PLC (ADT) | $3.20 | -$0.15 | -4.5% | -6.2% | +9.6% |
Sheffield Resources (SFX) | $0.650 | -$0.03 | -4.4% | +25.% | +19.3% |
Allkem (AKE) | $8.50 | -$0.38 | -4.3% | -19.5% | -40.5% |
Talga Group (TLG) | $1.035 | -$0.045 | -4.2% | -11.2% | -23.6% |
Alumina (AWC) | $0.690 | -$0.025 | -3.5% | -9.8% | -54.2% |
Liontown Resources (LTR) | $1.400 | -$0.045 | -3.1% | -22.7% | -31.7% |
Lower commodity prices hurt mining companies today
Lower oil prices in Asia after the shenanigans last night in the oil market due to OPEC weighed on the Energy Sector (XEJ) -1.3%.
Company | Last Price | Change $ | Change % | 1-month Perf % | 1-year Perf % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Beach Energy (BPT) | $1.510 | -$0.03 | -1.9% | +2.% | -10.9% |
Karoon Energy (KAR) | $2.12 | -$0.04 | -1.9% | -18.0% | -5.7% |
Deep Yellow (DYL) | $1.140 | -$0.02 | -1.7% | -16.2% | +56.2% |
Woodside Energy Group (WDS) | $31.50 | -$0.54 | -1.7% | -9.7% | -15.7% |
Santos (STO) | $7.00 | -$0.12 | -1.7% | -9.9% | -4.2% |
Origin Energy (ORG) | $8.33 | -$0.09 | -1.1% | -8.5% | +10.2% |
Stanmore Resources (SMR) | $3.85 | -$0.04 | -1.0% | +1.3% | +58.4% |
Worley (WOR) | $17.15 | -$0.12 | -0.7% | +4.% | +15.7% |
Ampol (ALD) | $33.89 | -$0.18 | -0.5% | +2.9% | +21.8% |
Paladin Energy (PDN) | $1.010 | -$0.005 | -0.5% | +4.7% | +30.3% |
Serial underperformers, energy sector stocks were hit again
Economy
Australian Purchasing Managers Index data for November showed an continued contraction in the local manufacturing and services sectors.
The Judo Bank Flash Australia Composite PMI Output Index posted 46.4 in November, down 1.2 points from October.
The Manufacturing PMI was 47.7 (down from 48.2), while the Services PMI was 46.3 (from 47.9). PMI readings below 50 indicate a contraction in a sector. This was the ninth-straight contraction in the manufacturing sector and the second-straight in the services sector.
The data clearly shows the Australian economy is slowing as higher interest rates and higher inflation nag away at business confidence and consumer spending. Hopefully the RBA is listening to the data at its next meeting in December!
What to watch out for...
PMI data for Europe and the UK. US markets are of course closed this evening for Thanksgiving Day Holidays, but will reopen on Friday for a half-day trading session.
Interesting news and movers
Trading higher
+18.2% Newfield Resources (NWF) - AGM Presentation on 22 Nov
+12.2% Opthea (OPT) - No news
+11.2% Boart Longyear Group (BLY) - No news
+7.5% Aroa Biosurgery (ARX) - Notification of Half Year Results Webinar on 22 Nov
+6.9% Ioneer (INR) - Response to ASX Query Letter on 20 Nov
+6.0% Integral Diagnostics (IDX) - No news
+5.9% AMP (AMP) - Settlement of Buyer of Last Resort class action proceedings
+5.3% Healius (HLS) - Completion of Institutional Entitlement Offer on 22 Nov
+5.1% Maas Group Holdings (MGH) - No news
+5.0% Cooper Energy (COE) - BMG decommissioning update - vessel mobilisation on 20 Nov
Trading lower
-15.8% Neometals (NMT) - Update - Proposed issue of securities - NMT
-14.4% Pacific Smiles Group (PSQ) - 2023 Annual General Meeting Presentation on 22 Nov
-14.3% AMA Group (AMA) - 2023 Annual General Meeting Addresses
-8.7% Aurelia Metals (AMI) - No news
-8.3% 88 Energy (88E) - No news
-7.7% Bowen Coking Coal (BCB) - Entitlement Offer Completion
-7.5% Pantoro (PNR) - Director Share Sale & Change of Director's Interest Notice
-6.7% Nick Scali (NCK) - Managing Director Share Sale
Broker notes
Alkane (ALK) initiated at buy at Moelis Australia; Price Target: $1.05
ASX (ASX) retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $53.50
Brickworks (BKW) retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $27.80 from $28.50
Bluescope Steel (BSL) retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $23.70
City Chic Collective (CCX)
Retained at equalweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $0.45
Upgraded to speculative buy from neutral at E&P; Price Target: $0.67
Downer EDI (DOW)
Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $4.55
Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.10
Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $4.20
Ebos Group (EBO) retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $32.00
EVT Ltd. (EVT) initiated outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $12.65
Fortescue Metals Group (FMG) retained at sell at Bell Potter; Price Target: $17.37 from $16.21
Genesis Minerals (GMD) initiated at buy at Moelis Australia; Price Target: $2.00
Healius (HLS) retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $1.25 from $1.99
Lovisa Holdings (LOV)
Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $23.00
Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $24.50
Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $19.70
Upgraded to buy from overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $23.20
Medibank Private (MPL)
Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $3.56
Retained at equalweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $3.70
Monash IVF Group (MVF) retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.40
Patriot Battery Metals Inc. (PMT) retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.10
Praemium (PPS) downgraded to market-weight from overweight at Wilsons; Price Target: $0.40 from $0.86
Pexa Group (PXA) retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $14.00
QBE Insurance Group (QBE) retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $18.30
Ridley Corporation (RIC) retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $2.60 from $2.50
Silver Lake Resources (SLR) initiated at buy at Moelis Australia; Price Target: $1.45
SSR Mining (SSR) retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $20.00 from $25.60
Santos (STO)
Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $9.00
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $9.70
Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $8.55
Task Group Holdings (TSK) retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.54 from $0.57
Woodside Energy Group (WDS) retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $33.50 from $35.40
Webjet (WEB)
Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $8.55
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $8.37
Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $8.10
Retained at equalweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $7.45
Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $7.90
Scans
Carl has over 30-years investing experience, helping investors navigate several bull and bear markets over this time. He is a well respected markets commentator who specialises in how the global macro impacts Australian and US equities. Carl has a passion for technical analysis and has taught his unique brand of price-action trend following to thousands of Aussie investors.
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