Evening Wrap: ASX 200 lower, Real Estate and Retailers tumble, Gold stocks extend gains

In a nutshell:

• ASX 200 back to falling, after Thursday's (+0.33%) gain snapped a six-day losing streak

• Sharp declines for REITs, retailers and tech, plus a pullback for healthcare after its monster run, outweighed small gains for resources and banks

• A quieter day for results, with the notable movers including Guzman Y Gomez (+11.3%), NWH (+8.0%), TPG (+7.9%), Charter Hall (-6.3%), Inghams (-7.2%), Accent Group (-8.2%) and Digico (-9.3%)

• Carl is away this afternoon, so you've got me (Kerry) instead
  
  

Let’s dive in!

• ASX 200 (-0.27%) lower and slight off intraday lows, down 0.62% for the week and lower in 9 of the last eleven sessions. Even then, the market is hardly oversold (RSI at 51), given the sharp 5.5% run-up between 24-Jul and 6-Aug. We've only given back roughly half of those gains

• Energy and utilities (AGL and Origin are partly energy plays anyway) continue to grind higher against a backdrop of higher-for-longer oil prices. Brent might still be ~28% below its US$120 a barrel peak on 9 March, but a name like Woodside is trading within 6% of its 7 April high. It's a classic case of energy equities refusing to underwrite geopolitically driven oil price spikes, but as the past couple of months have shown, the Strait isn't opening anytime soon

  • Macquarie's latest Woodside model has FY27 Brent at US$64 a barrel, which puts the company on a free cash flow yield of 11.6%, still very solid. As oil builds evidence that the floor sits north of US$64, at least for now, Woodside is starting to grind higher

• Financials snapped a five-day losing streak, though a 0.2% gain doesn't inspire much conviction. The sector is down 9.0% over the last eleven sessions, with quarterlies and results from the Big Four, the regionals and names like Judo, Pepper Money and AFG all pointing to sharp 10-15% declines in mortgage application volumes post-budget. Slight misses have driven massive selloffs for the sector in past reporting seasons, but this shapes as the biggest test yet

• Materials finished fractionally higher, a breather after Thursday's 3.5% rally which took the index within 0.5% of its 17 June record high.

  • All Ords Gold Index (+1.4%) higher again, now up 9.9% over the last two sessions and 39% from the 20 July low. Incredible gains, as the US Treasury's move to double buybacks, and the lack of impact it has had on bond yields, tells us more intervention is needed. That's a strong setup for gold and the broader commodity complex

• Healthcare stocks took a breather after the sector rallied 12.1% in the prior three sessions. The pullback was in-line with the S&P 500 Healthcare Index (-1.9%) and US Biotech ETFs (-2.8%). CSL is now down just 1.7% year-to-date, a miracle run from a 48% drawdown

• REITs was the worst performing sector, largely driven by two stocks. Goodman Group (-5.2%) is now down 10.5% in the last three sessions, having reported on Thursday. Charter Hall (-6.3%) reported today, with FY26 numbers mostly in-line though FY27 guidance soft

TODAY

• AUS Flash Manufacturing & Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)

• Manufacturing: 52.0 vs 52.0 in June (revised up from 51.7)

• Services: 52.9 vs 53.6 in June (revised up from 53.0)

• Reader: PMI readings above 50 indicate growth in a sector, so Australian businesses grew at a modest rate in July, but in both manufacturing and services — showing some slowdown from June.

LATER THIS WEEK

Friday

• 23:45 USA Flash Manufacturing & Services PMI