Evening Wrap: ASX 200 has a new record in sight as earnings boost Aussie Broadband, Kogan and Tyro, uranium stocks in melt-up mode

Uranium stocks in melt-up mode! Terrible pun, but great description of the share price action in the ASX U-sector today!

We've got all the big moves for you there, as well as the big moves in earnings and broker updates, plus technical analysis of the S&P/ASX200 and a commodity that has been sneaking back into the charting good books lately (Hint: Not gold...but...)

For all this and much more...

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 60.6 points higher at 8,084.5, 0.76% from its session high/low and just 0.03% from its high/low. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO), advancers beat decliners by a convincing 180 to 99.

Communication Services (XTJ) (+1.3%) was the best performing sector today on the back of a 11.9% pop in Aussie Broadband (ABB), and strong performances from major constituents Seek (SEK) (+4.3%), Car Group (CAR) (+2.9%), and REA Group (REA) (+1.9%). There’s quite a bit of overlap here with tech, and we had a strong lead from US tech stocks on Friday.

Also doing well today were interest rate sensitives Financials (XFJ) (+1.2%), Consumer Discretionary (XDJ) (+1.1%), and Real Estate (XRE) (+1.1%). Global benchmark yields fell Friday as investors factored in lower US rates post-the Jackson Hole Symposium. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell confirmed the Fed is positioned to cut in September, but stopped short of saying how much. He did indicate, however, that he had at his disposal significant measures to stimulate the US economy if required.

This has likely also helped global growth-oriented sectors like Energy (XEJ) (+1.2%) and Materials (XMJ) (+0.8%). Easily the highlight of both sectors was the massive rebound in ASX listed uranium shares. The uranium price bounced modestly, and US-based uranium stocks less modestly on Friday after news that the world's largest producer, Kazatomprom, downgraded its full-year production outlook.

ASX U-stocks had a big day out today!

Only three of the major ASX sectors finished in the red today, and none of them did it particularly tough when accounting for the odd earnings bomb among their respective constituents.

I mentioned tech above, and interestingly at a sector level, Information Technology (XIJ) was one of the losers today, but I note this was mainly due to a minor pullback major constituent Wisetech (WTC) (-1.0%). There were plenty of winners across the sector, however, including investment platform provider Preamium (PPS) which logged a massive 25% gain following the release of its FY24 results. It was well supported by a slew of big names including Iress (IRE) (+4%), Macquarie Technology Group (MQG) (+2.8%), and a rebound in Megaport (MP1) (+2.2%).

The Consumer Staples (XSJ) (+-%) sector found itself at the bottom of the pile – partly due to a big 6.9% drop in Endeavour Group (EDV) following its earnings, and partly due to investors not needing to play as much defence anymore.

ChartWatch

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

An interesting chart

The last time we covered the XJO was in ChartWatch in the Evening Wrap on 22 August.

In that update, we noted the attractive features of frequent demand-side candles (white bodies and or downward pointing shadows), and the angle of attack of the recent rally relative to the 2-5 August correction – i.e., the all-important “V-shaped” bounce.

Today’s candle shows the demand-side has retained control into this week, and this is after a critical event risk over the weekend in the shape of the Jackson Hole Symposium. A big tick of approval.

As far as the technical signals I can see, and conceding I cannot tell the future – everything looks very positive here for an imminent test of the 8149 high.

But I don’t want to jinx it any more than that, so let’s leave my prognostications there!

Demand is expected at the short term uptrend ribbon (dynamic) now at 7907-7932 and this is not far off the 21 August trough low of 7951 (not labelled on the chart above to keep the clutter down!).

As long as the XJO continues to close above 7907, I believe it remains in a short term uptrend. Beyond that, 7628 remains the critical delineator between long term uptrend and long term downtrend.

Clearly 8149 is now the key overhead point of supply – but expect the supply to potentially kick in as lows at 8084. Supply will manifest itself in that zone as black-bodied candles and or upward pointing shadows. If it does – it may take some time / a few goes to get through 8149. If the candles show too much supply – perhaps we won’t.

On the other hand, demand-side showings in the zone would indicate there remains a supply-side vacuum and that new highs are likely a mere formality!

Silver Futures (Front month, back-adjusted) COMEX

Silver still looks second to gold, but perhaps not for much longer...

The last time we covered silver was in ChartWatch in the Evening Wrap on 31 July.

In that update, we noted that the “long term uptrend ribbon did its job, that is, it offered dynamic demand”. History shows it took one more test of the long term uptrend ribbon (and the static point of demand at 26.58) before supply finally exhausted itself and the demand-side regained control.

The candles since then have been generally demand-side nature, with white bodies and or downward pointing shadows. The price has since closed above points of supply at 29.36 and with Friday’s strong white candle, above 29.63. Both important ticks.

With the long term uptrend apparently now decisively held, the price action back to rising peaks and rising troughs, as well as predominantly demand side candles – the final piece of the puzzle for me becomes the effective overcoming of dynamic supply expected at the short term trend ribbon.

By definition, this means a close above, retest, and hold of the ribbon. In practical terms, this will manifest itself as a trough whose low is formed at or above the short term trend ribbon. Therefore, the 28.79 trough ticks this final box of the transition back to demand-side control for me.

30.04 is the next point of supply. A close above it would likely pave the way for higher retracements of the 33.08-26.50 swing, namely the next point of supply at 32.00.

Demand is now the short term trend ribbon, but more likely, at 28.79. As long as silver continues to close above this point, the short term uptrend is intact.

Economy

Today

• There weren't any major data releases in our time zone today

Later this week

Monday

22:30 USA Core Durable Goods Orders m/m (0.0% forecast vs +0.4% previous)

Wednesday

• 00:00 USA CB Consumer Confidence (100.2 forecast vs +100.3 previous)

• 11:30 AUS Consumer Price Index (CPI) monthly series (+3.4% p.a. vs +3.8% p.a. previous)

Thursday

• 22:30 USA Prelim GDP June Qtr y/y (+2.8% p.a. forecast vs +2.8% p.a. previous)

Friday

• 00:00 USA Pending Home Sales m/m (+0.2% forecast vs +4.8% previous)

• 09:30 JPN Tokyo Core CPI y/y (+2.2% p.a. forecast vs +2.2% p.a. previous)

• 11:30 AUS Retail Sales m/m (+0.3% forecast vs +0.5% previous)

• 19:00 EUR CPI Flash Estimate y/y (+2.2% p.a. forecast vs +2.6% p.a. previous)

• 22:30 USA Core PCE Price Index m/m (+0.2% m/m forecast vs +0.2% m/m previous)

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +25.3% Praemium (PPS) - FY2024 Appendix 4E and Annual Report and FY2024 Full-Year Results Presentation

• +17.0% Deep Yellow (DYL) - Kazatomprom production cut news boosted global uranium sector, ASX u-stocks included

• +13.6% Lotus Resources (LOT) - Ditto uranium

• +13.2% Alligator Energy (AGE) - Ditto uranium

• +12.2% Tyro Payments (TYR) - Tyro 2024 Annual Report and Tyro FY24 Full Year Results Investor Presentation

• +11.9% Aussie Broadband (ABB) - ABB Appendix 4E - FY24 Full Year Results and ABB FY24 Results - Investor Presentation

• +11.8% Paladin Energy (PDN) - Ditto uranium

• +11.8% Kogan.Com (KGN) - FY24 Kogan.com Appendix 4E&Preliminary Financial Statements and FY24 Kogan.com Results Presentation

• +9.9% Chorus (CNU) - Chorus 2024 full year results

• +9.9% Peninsula Energy (PEN) - Ditto uranium

• +9.8% Mayne Pharma Group (MYX) - Continued positive response to Friday's 2024 Full Year Results Investor Presentation

• +9.6% Nexgen Energy (NXG) - Ditto uranium

• +9.5% Pantoro (PNR) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈

• +9.3% Bannerman Energy (BMN) - Ditto uranium

• +9.1% Silex Systems (SLX) - Ditto uranium

• +7.6% Boss Energy (BOE) - Ditto uranium

Trading lower

• -25.4% Close The Loop (CLG) - Annual Report to shareholders and FY24 Investor Presentation, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends 🔎📉

• -23.8% Kelsian Group (KLS) - KLS FY24 Indicative Results and Update, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends 🔎📉

• -17.7% NIB (NHF) - Appendix 4E and 2024 Annual Report and FY24 Full Year Results Investor Presentation, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends 🔎📉

• -10.3% Cettire (CTT) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends 🔎📉

• -10.0% Appen (APX) - No news, pullback from very strong recent rally

• -8.3% Pointsbet (PBH) - No news, several price target cuts with the brokers today as they reviewed 22 Aug FY24 Investor Presentation (see Broker Notes section below)

• -7.7% Brainchip (BRN) - Appendix 4D and 1H24 Financial Report, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends 🔎📉

• -6.9% Endeavour Group (EDV) - Appendix 4E and 2024 Annual Report and F24 Results Investor Presentation

Broker Notes

• ARN Media (A1N)

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.46 from $0.63

• Abacus Group (ABG)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $1.35

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.15

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $1.20

• Adore Beauty Group (ABY)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $1.50

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $1.05

• AMA Group (AMA)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.07

• ANZ Group (ANZ)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $29.45 from $29.48

  • Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $26.20

  • Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $27.50

• Australian Unity Office Fund (AOF)

  • Downgraded to hold from accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $1.32 from $1.37

• Autosports Group (ASG)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $2.20 from $2.25

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $2.90 from $3.10

• Accent Group (AX1)

  • Upgraded to outperform from hold at CLSA; Price Target: $2.25 from $2.10

  • Upgraded to buy from overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $2.28

  • Retained at overweight at JP Morgan; Price Target: $2.30 from $2.40

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $2.50 from $2.45

  • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $2.40

  • Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $2.40

  • Upgraded to buy from neutral at UBS; Price Target: $2.20

• Bendigo and Adelaide Bank (BEN)

  • Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $9.50

• Bank of Queensland (BOQ)

  • Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.00 from $4.75

  • Retained at lighten at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $5.00

• Big River Industries (BRI)

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $1.86 from $1.91

• Capitol Health (CAJ)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.33 from $0.32

• Cobram Estate Olives (CBO)

  • Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.85 from $1.95

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $1.98 from $1.97

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $2.10 from $2.05

• City Chic Collective (CCX)

  • Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $0.11 from $0.42

• Codan (CDA)

  • Upgraded to buy from hold at Moelis Australia; Price Target: $16.85 from $10.22

• Chalice Mining (CHN)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $5.15

• Collins Foods (CKF)

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $10.40 from $11.50

• Charter Hall Long Wale Reit (CLW)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $3.70

• Centuria Capital Group (CNI)

  • Upgraded to outperform from hold at CLSA; Price Target: $1.83 from $1.62

• Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals (CUV)

  • Upgraded to add from hold at Morgans; Price Target: $16.00

• Cedar Woods Properties (CWP)

  • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $6.50 from $5.60

• DUG Technology (DUG)

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $3.60 from $3.45

• Endeavour Group (EDV)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $5.94

• EVT (EVT)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $11.50

• Experience Co (EXP)

  • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $0.18 from $0.30

• Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corporation (FPH)

  • Downgraded to sell from neutral at Citi; Price Target: NZ$33.50 from $NZ28.75

  • Downgraded to hold from outperform at CLSA; Price Target: NZ$34.50 from NZ$28.60

  • Retained at underweight at Jarden; Price Target: NZ$27.50 from NZ$25.30

  • Retained at hold at Jefferies; Price Target: NZ$38.00 from $NZ$26.50

  • Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: NZ$26.00 from NZ$24.00

• Harmoney Corp (HMY)

  • Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.74 from $0.86

• Hipages Group (HPG)

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $1.60 from $1.40

• Insurance Australia Group (IAG)

  • Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $7.52 from $7.36

• IDP Education (IEL)

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $19.20

• Insignia Financial (IFL)

  • Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $2.55

• IVE Group (IGL)

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $2.60

• Iluka Resources (ILU)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $7.80 from $6.65

  • Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $6.60 from $6.75

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $7.05

• Inghams Group (ING)

  • Downgraded to neutral from buy at Bank of America; Price Target: $3.20 from $5.00

  • Downgraded to hold from buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $4.35

  • Retained at outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $3.45 from $4.40

  • Retained at sell at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $3.15

  • Retained at overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $3.65 from $3.95

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.50 from $4.20

  • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $3.66 from $4.25

• IPH (IPH)

  • Downgraded to hold from outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $6.60 from $6.85

• Jumbo Interactive (JIN)

  • Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $15.50

  • Upgraded to overweight from underweight at Jarden; Price Target: $14.70 from $15.20

  • Retained at underweight at JP Morgan; Price Target: $13.00 from $14.50

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $17.45

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $19.50 from $20.80

  • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $16.80 from $17.70

  • Retained at lighten at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $13.10 from $14.50

• Kogan.Com (KGN)

  • Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $4.15

• Liberty Financial Group (LFG)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $4.25

• Latitude Group (LFS)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $1.15

• LGI (LGI)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $3.40 from $3.25

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $3.60

• MA Financial Group (MAF)

  • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $5.46 from $5.33

• Medibank Private (MPL)

  • Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $4.00

  • Retained at neutral at Jarden; Price Target: $3.95 from $3.85

  • Retained at buy at Jefferies; Price Target: $4.55 from $4.50

  • Retained at overweight at JP Morgan; Price Target: $4.40

  • Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $4.05 from $3.75

• Monash IVF Group (MVF)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.85 from $1.40

  • Downgraded to hold from accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $1.25 from $1.50

• Maxiparts (MXI)

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $2.60 from $2.85

• NIB (NHF)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $8.60

• Objective Corporation (OCL)

  • Downgraded to hold from add at Morgans; Price Target: $14.00

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $14.40

• Pointsbet (PBH)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.66 from $0.63

  • Retained at buy at Jarden; Price Target: $0.95 from $0.85

  • Retained at buy at Jefferies; Price Target: $0.83 from $1.07

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.85 from $0.90

• Pilbara Minerals (PLS)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $2.90

• Playside Studios (PLY)

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $1.00

• Polynovo (PNV)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.85 from $2.75

  • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $2.85 from $2.50

• Regis Healthcare (REG)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.50

• Rural Funds Group (RFF)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $2.50 from $2.40

• Ramelius Resources (RMS)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.10

• St Barbara (SBM)

  • Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.24 from $0.23

• Stockland (SGP)

  • Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $4.70 from $4.55

• Superloop (SLC)

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $2.10 from $1.85

• Stanmore Resources (SMR)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $3.95

• Spark New Zealand (SPK)

  • Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: NZ$4.94 from NZ$5.08

  • Retained at neutral at Jarden; Price Target: NZ$4.28 from NZ$4.68

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: NZ$4.94 from NZ$5.08

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: NZ$2.50

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: NZ$5.30 from NZ$5.45

• Super Retail Group (SUL)

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $17.80 from $13.80

• Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX)

  • Downgraded to hold from buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $21.30

  • Retained at outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $22.00

  • Retained at buy at Jefferies; Price Target: $32.20 from $31.90

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $29.00

  • Retained at overweight at Wilsons; Price Target: $22.00

• Tyro Payments (TYR)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.45

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $1.55

• Universal Store (UNI)

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $8.00 from $6.50

• Viva Energy Group (VEA)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.25

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $3.55

• Veem (VEE)

  • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $2.25

• Woodside Energy Group (WDS)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $25.00 from $28.00

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $33.00

• Wagners Holding Company (WGN)

  • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $1.25

• Whitehaven Coal (WHC)

  • Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $6.80 from $7.80

• Wisetech Global (WTC)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $90.00

Scans