Evening Wrap: ASX 200 gold, gold, gold for the ASX! EVN, NST, NEM and more surge on new gold record

A wide-ranging research note from major broker Macquarie that was released yesterday afternoon – and was just too massive to distil into yesterday's Wrap – likely had a big impact on gold and other resources stocks today. The broker covered 46 Resources stocks in the note, upgrading 8, downgrading 3, and increasing the price targets for dozens.

Click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key upcoming economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the NASDAQ Composite, S&P/ASX 200 and Gold in today's ChartWatch.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 40.6 points higher at 7,789.7, 0.64% from its session low and just 0.07% from its high. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO), advancers beat decliners by an impressive (but makes you wonder about how it can be the opposite to every other day this week!) 207 to 65.

For the week, the XJO finished down 158.5 points or 1.99% lower, 2.42% from its intraweek high and just 0.73% from its intraweek low. Yuk! 🤢

Since the local market started unravelling post-Valentine’s Day, there’s really only been one place to hide. Gold 🥇. Gold bullion, gold ETFs, and gold stocks.

Today was kind of the icing on top of the cherry on top of the cake for gold bugs as the gold price tipped a new all time high overnight, helping to push gold ETFs like the Global X Physical Gold ETF (ASX: GOLD) (+1.7%) and the Gold (XGD) sub-index (+3.8%), to their own, respective all time highs.

S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold SubInd Index chart (click here for full size image)

There were too many big gains within the XGD to mention here, but those that logged the biggest gains are listed in the Interesting Moves section below.

They’ve been topping the gainers list in that section of this Evening Wrap for several months. But Interesting Moves isn’t the only place on our Market Index site where the GOLD ETF and gold stocks have featured day in day out for months – my daily ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends lists have been chockers with them. You’re welcome 👍.

But today wasn’t just about surging gold stocks, Utilities (XUJ) (+-%), stocks also rose today – continuing on from their consistent recent strength – and whilst gold stocks certainly bolstered the performance of Resources (XJR) (+-%), I note the sector was broadly supported by base metals, lithium and iron ore stocks.

A wide-ranging research note from Macquarie that was released yesterday afternoon – and was just too massive to distil into yesterday's Wrap – likely had an impact here. Big Mac covered 46 Resources stocks in the note, upgrading 8, downgrading 3, and increasing the price targets for dozens.

Check out the Broker Moves section below for each of the changes in Macquarie's note, and I’ll aim to bring you an overview of the note in a dedicated article on Monday.

Interestingly, as if perhaps to confirm the influence of this note in the market today, one area that Macquarie unanimously downgraded was energy. Well, coal, anyway. Whitehaven Coal (ASX: WHC) and New Hope Corporation (ASX: NHC) were downgraded to neutral from outperform, and Coronado Global Resources (ASX: CRN) went straight to the sin bin without passing neutral – downgraded to underperform from outperform.

These moves, along with weaker crude and thermal coal prices overnight, helped the Energy (XEJ) (-0.43%), reprise its cosy “worst ASX sector of the day” title it’s claimed most days for the last 15 months. This fact has not been lost on my ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends lists – as each of those coal stocks have featured heavily for much of that time. You're welcome x 2 👍👍.

The NOT S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold SubInd Index chart (i.e., the "'Ain't trend following grand" pair!) (click here for full size image)

ChartWatch

NASDAQ Composite Index

Keep doing the same thing, get the same result...want a different result? Then...⬜🕯️ (click here for full size image)

As the saying goes: Keep doing the same thing, expect to keep getting the same result.

The Comp keeps printing a decisive supply-side candle after anything that resembles a promising bounce. This sort of price action is so consistent with bear market price action, it's scary.

The rest of the saying goes: If you want a different result, then you must do something different.

For the Comp, this means big white candles. At least a few of them. And Quickly 🤞.

Sometimes, the best remedy to the present piecemeal approach of declines is to just take a big hit. A big opening sell off to clear any latent supply and clean out those nervous nellies who up until this point have been sitting on the fence as to whether they should sell. Get out already!

If, and only if, such a rally is bought into aggressively by the big funds who were waiting for whatever value / liquidity trigger they were waiting for – and they enter in size – then both volume (high) and price action (long downward pointing shadow) will tell us that we're ready for a proper rally.

It could happen tonight, that would be nice, or it could happen next week/month/year. Either way, that's what you're looking for 👀.

Until then, it may be more of the same...😭

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

Nice, but hardly convincing (click here for full size image)

A decent bounce today – a smidge of downward pointing shadow, a full white body, and a close very near the session high. We finally saw some demand-side control, and it stuck until the end of the day.

On a Friday, too, mind you ✅ .

But in the scheme of things, today's move was tiny 🤏.

A start, sure – but we need more (or the next big black candle and a date with 7628 is just around the corner) 📉.

Gold Futures (Front month, back-adjusted) COMEX

Gold, gold, gold! 🏆 (click here for full size image)

Just a quick follow-up here because we only covered Gold yesterday, but as per yesterday, up she went! 🚀

Ideally, we see the old 2974 zone of supply now begin to act as a zone of demand, holding with white-bodied candles and or downward pointing shadows into this area.

There's also a minor demand point from the 2941.30 historic peak (not labelled on chart above due to lack of room) that could come into play. Dynamic demand from the short term uptrend ribbon also won't be far behind there either.

Otherwise, without any clear points of supply to contend with apart from the 3,000 round number (a date with destiny!?), there's really not much to do here but follow the trend. (It's a bit of a thing for me, you know, this trend following thing...📈😁)

Economy

Today

• There weren't any major data releases in our time zone today

Later this week

Tonight

• 22:00 USA Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment March (63.8% forecast vs 64.7 in February)

• 22:00 USA Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations March (+4.3% p.a. in February)

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +22.0% Metals X (MLX) - No official announcements from the company, but note that Alphamin Resources will temporarily cease mining operations at Bisie tin mine in DRC, also MLX extended on-market share buyback of up to 10% of issued capital - now to run 12 months from 21-Mar, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +12.4% Droneshield (DRO) - Change in substantial holding (looks like securities lending arrangements, though, i.e. shorts - some of this moves smacks of short covering), rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and long term trend is transitioning from down to up, added to ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list yesterday 🔎📈

• +11.5% Meeka Metals (MEK) - 31 December 2024 Interim Financial Report, general strength across the broader Gold sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +10.6% Antipa Minerals (AZY) - No news, general strength across the broader Gold sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +8.8% The A2 Milk Company (A2M) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +7.7% St Barbara (SBM) - No news, general strength across the broader Gold sector today.

• +7.2% Westgold Resources (WGX) - Continued positive response to 13-Mar Change of Director's Interest Notice - W. Bramwell (on market purchase), general strength across the broader Gold sector today.

• +6.7% Spartan Resources (SPR) - No news, general strength across the broader Gold sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +6.7% Pantoro (PNR) - No news, general strength across the broader Gold sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +6.1% Sims (SGM) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +5.9% Neuren Pharmaceuticals (NEU) - No news 🤔.

• +5.7% Newmont Corporation (NEM) - No news, general strength across the broader Gold sector today, bounced perfectly from long term uptrend ribbon! 🔎📈

• +5.6% Regis Resources (RRL) - No news.

• +5.6% Genesis Minerals (GMD) - No news, general strength across the broader Gold sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +5.5% Bellevue Gold (BGL) - No news, general strength across the broader Gold sector today.

• +5.4% Austal (ASB) - No news since 11-Mar A$200m institutional placement to expand US capacity, bounced in the wake of the recent sharp selloff.

• +5.2% Catalyst Metals (CYL) - First ore from Plutonic East, general strength across the broader Gold sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +4.9% Liontown Resources (LTR) - Half year results presentation, upgraded to neutral from outperform at Macquarie and price target increased to $0.650 from $0.600.

• +4.9% Resolute Mining (RSG) - No news, general strength across the broader Gold sector today.

• +4.8% Ora Banda Mining (OBM) - Continued positive response to 13-Mar Outstanding Exploration Results at Little Gem, general strength across the broader Gold sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +4.7% Rox Resources (RXL) - No news, general strength across the broader Gold sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +4.6% Evolution Mining (EVN) - No news, general strength across the broader Gold sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +4.6% Vault Minerals (VAU) - No news, general strength across the broader Gold sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

Trading lower

• -12.5% MTM Critical Metals (MTM) - No news since 13-Mar MTM Partnership with Vedanta Ltd on Aluminum Waste, fall is consistent with prevailing short term downtrend and rising peaks and rising troughs 🔎📉

• -4.8% Vulcan Energy Resources (VUL) - No news 🤔.

• -4.2% Novonix (NVX) - Change of Director's Interest Notice, (on market sale of 894,681 shares worth $221,780), fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -4.1% Black Cat Syndicate (BC8) - Strongly Supported Placement for Kal East Acceleration and Investor Presentation.

• -3.9% Coronado Global Resources (CRN) - No news, downgraded to underperform from outperform at Macquarie and price target cut in half to $0.400 from $0.800 - Macquarie has been a long term supporter of the stock, so this downgrade (that unusually skipped the neutral rating notch to underperform from outperform) is particularly telling, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, one of the most Featured (highest conviction) stocks in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -3.0% Car Group (CAR) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short term downtrend and long term trend is transitioning from up to down, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -2.8% Redox (RDX) - No news since 11-Mar Response to ASX Aware Letter, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -2.3% Spark New Zealand (SPK) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, one of the most Featured (highest conviction) stocks in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -2.2% Peninsula Energy (PEN) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

Broker Moves

• 29METALS (29M)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.300

  • Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $0.300

• Atlantic Lithium (A11)

  • Retained at overweight at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.400 from $0.300

• Abacus Group (ABG)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $1.350

• AGL Energy (AGL)

  • Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $12.00 from $11.00

• Aeris Resources (AIS)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.280 from $0.270

• Aurelia Metals (AMI)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.300 from $0.250

• ARB Corporation (ARB)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $39.54

• Abacus Storage King (ASK)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $1.400

• Aurizon (AZJ)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $3.08

• Bellevue Gold (BGL)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.900 from $1.700

  • Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $1.900 from $1.700

• BHP Group (BHP)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $42.00

  • Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $45.00

• Boss Energy (BOE)

  • Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $2.95

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $4.80 from $4.85

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $3.20

• Charter Hall Group (CHC)

  • Upgraded to buy from neutral at Citi; Price Target: $18.50

• Champion Iron (CIA)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $6.20 from $6.70

• Capricorn Metals (CMM)

  • Upgraded to neutral from underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $8.10 from $7.30

• Carnaby Resources (CNB)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.700 from $0.900

• Coles Group (COL)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $21.00

• Charter Hall Retail Reit (CQR)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $4.00

• Coronado Global Resources (CRN)

  • Downgraded to underperform from outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.400 from $0.800

• Capstone Copper Corp. (CSC)

  • Retained at overweight at Macquarie; Price Target: $12.50 from $11.60

• Centaurus Metals (CTM)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.640 from $0.650

• Clarity Pharmaceuticals (CU6)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $5.20 from $10.00

• De Grey Mining (DEG)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.10 from $1.800

  • Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $2.10 from $2.00

• Downer EDI (DOW)

  • Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $5.14

• Deterra Royalties (DRR)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.40

• Deep Yellow (DYL)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $1.830

• Endeavour Group (EDV)

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $5.30 from $5.90

• Evolution Mining (EVN)

  • Upgraded to neutral from underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $6.20 from $5.50

  • Retained at underperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $5.40 from $4.30

• Firefly Metals (FFM)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.600 from $1.500

  • Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $1.550

• Fortescue (FMG)

  • Upgraded to neutral from underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $15.00

  • Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $20.00 from $21.00

• Gold Road Resources (GOR)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.10

  • Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $2.40 from $2.10

• IGO (IGO)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.50

  • Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $6.00 from $5.75

• Iluka Resources (ILU)

  • Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $4.45

• Ingenia Communities Group (INA)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $6.50

• JB HI-FI (JBH)

  • Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $73.60 from $70.70

• Jupiter Mines (JMS)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.230

• Lifestyle Communities (LIC)

  • Upgraded to buy from neutral at Citi; Price Target: $9.70

• Liontown Resources (LTR)

  • Upgraded to neutral from outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.650 from $0.600

• Mineral Resources (MIN)

  • Upgraded to outperform from neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $39.00 from $36.00

  • Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $44.00 from $50.00

• Northern Star Resources (NST)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $18.00 from $17.90

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $20.00

  • Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $21.50 from $20.00

• Pilbara Minerals (PLS)

  • Upgraded to outperform from neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.40 from $2.20

• Premier Investments (PMV)

  • Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $22.00 from $27.85

• Perseus Mining (PRU)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.90 from $3.70

• Qube (QUB)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $3.73

• Region Group (RGN)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $2.40

• Rio Tinto (RIO)

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $116.00

  • Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $119.00 from $117.00

• Ramelius Resources (RMS)

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.30 from $2.10

  • Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $2.80 from $2.50

• Regis Resources (RRL)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.10 from $3.60

  • Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $4.30 from $3.90

• Resolute Mining (RSG)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.550 from $0.450

• South32 (S32)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.50 from $4.40

  • Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $4.10 from $4.20

• St Barbara (SBM)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.390 from $0.540

  • Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $0.300 from $0.400

• Seek (SEK)

  • Initiated at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $27.00

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $27.00

• Sandfire Resources (SFR)

  • Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $11.00 from $10.50

• Scentre Group (SGC)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $3.90

• Sims (SGM)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $15.50

• Stockland (SGP)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $5.80

• Southern Cross Gold (SX2)

  • Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $4.50 from $4.40

• Sayona Mining (SYA)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.040

• Syrah Resources (SYR)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.270 from $0.260

• Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX)

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $36.00

• Treasury Wine Estates (TWE)

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $12.90 from $14.60

• Vault Minerals (VAU)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.600 from $0.550

  • Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $0.500 from $0.450

• West African Resources (WAF)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.70 from $2.30

• Wesfarmers (WES)

  • Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $66.70 from $60.80

• Westgold Resources (WGX)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.70 from $3.10

  • Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $3.80 from $3.40

• Whitehaven Coal (WHC)

  • Downgraded to neutral from outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $6.50 from $8.50

• Woolworths Group (WOW)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $33.00

Scans