Evening Wrap: ASX 200 gains on surging gold and lithium stocks as Woolworths, Domino's Pizza, and Wisetech savaged on earnings

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 24.9 points higher, up 0.28%.

It was a solid day for the ASX 200 today as major gold and resources stocks helped the benchmark index shrug off losses in Consumer, Technology, and Financials sectors.

Lithium stocks deserve a special mention, as they soared on a report the tide might be turning with respect to large short positions in the sector.

As for those lagging sectors, well Woolies (WOW) (-14.7%), Domino's Pizza (DMP) (-22%), and Wisetech Global (WTC) (-11.9%) were the main culprits, as they each missed earnings expectations.

To make sense of all the above, I have detailed technical analysis on the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P/ASX 200 in today's ChartWatch.

Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 24.9 points higher at 8,960.5, 0.28% from its session low and just 0.05% from its low. Confirming the strong close on the benchmark, in the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) advancers beat decliners by 173 to 107.

A surge in the Gold subindex (XGD) (+5.7%) helped the ASX 200 to a modest gain today, as it powered the Resources (XJR) (+3.2%) sector to the top of the major sectors leaderboard. But it would be unfair to say that gold and silver stocks were the only ones that did the heavy lifting…

One percent-plus gains mega caps BHP Group (BHP) (+1.3%) and Rio Tinto (RIO) (+1.0%) no doubt also helped, but it was the standout performances from major ASX lithium stocks that really boosted sentiment across the sector. Investors are likely responding to a media report released after the market closed yesterday, that major fund managers are in the process of unwinding their massive short positions in the sector.

This helped the likes of Liontown Resources Ltd (LTR) (+9.5%), Pilbara Minerals Ltd (PLS) (+8.8%), Mineral Resources (MIN) (+6.8%), and IGO (IGO) (+3.9%) to solid gains on the day.

Today's best blue chip gainers

Today's worst blue chip losers

ChartWatch

Nasdaq Composite Index

Nasdaq Composite Index chart (click here for full size image)

Business as usual on Tuesday night for the Comp – another modest but steady showing of demand-side control.

The last point of demand 20906 is shaping up as a critical go-no go point in this short term uptrend. Similarly, 21805 – the all time high and sole point of supply – a critical obstacle to overcome.

But, given the fact that there are two very healthy green caterpillars crawling from the bottom left of the chart above to the top right suggests there’s no reason to doubt the demand-side’s credentials here.

It’s always reassuring to see very little downside volatility after a strong demand-side push – in this case the two most recent candles that have followed Friday’s resurgence. We’ll know something isn’t right if/when we see a long black-bodied candle and or a long upward pointing shadow, or the setting of a lower peak.

So, putting it all together here, I really don’t much to add… Which is a very good thing!

Conclusion: Stay the course, FRP.

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

S&P/ASX 200 chart (click here for full size image)

Today’s modest return to form rights the ship on the XJO a little. More like a smidge – after all, it was only 0.28% to the better 🤏.

But I do like that strong close, and today’s white body is a welcome pushback against the prior 3 sessions of supply-side control.

As I was away yesterday afternoon, the last time we chatted was after Monday’s long upward pointing shadow which I described as “NOT a good day in terms of the demand-supply environment demonstrating confidence in Aussie stocks”. No doubt, you didn’t need me to tell you that yesterday’s price action was perfectly consistent with “that shadow”.

It’s still the only candle on the chart above that gives me any cause for concern. I want us to knock that 9055 point of supply very quickly. We don’t want to see stronger confirmation the supply-side is creeping in here, and similarly, that the demand-side is unwilling – or worse - incapable of stopping them.

It’s worth at this point (if you haven’t already) checking out my seasonal analysis article from earlier today. Seasonal analysis is nothing more than a potential hypothetical road map – price action must still come fist – but it’s nice to know what happens more often than not (“MOTN”!).

So, if we fast forwarded to December 1, and 9055 was still sticking out like a sore thumb as 3-month high – it wouldn’t surprise me one little bit.

Everything else is intact. Ditto on the Comp with respect to supply-side candles and or a lower peak raising our alertness levels. 8857/the short term uptrend ribbon (presently 8802-8870) are the key points of demand. The short term uptrend remains intact until we close beneath them.

Until any of the aforementioned warning signals, I can only conclude: Stay the course, FRP.

Economy

Today

• AUS July Consumer Price Index ("CPI")

  • +2.8% p.a. vs +2.3% p.a. forecast +1.9% p.a. in June = A big miss! ⚠️

  • The nasty surprises stemmed mainly from sharp increases in the price of holiday travel, consumer durables, and a larger than expected increase in electricity prices as various state and federal rebates were phased out.

  • "Today’s report clearly shows that the downtrend in goods inflation over the past two years has run out" –My Bui, Economist, AMP

Australia July CPI categories (Top), and Australia Goods vs Services CPI inflation (bottom). Source: AMP Economics

Later this week

Thursday

• 22:30 Prelim June Quarter GDP (+3.1% p.a. forecast vs +3.0% p.a. in March Quarter)

Friday

• 00:00 USA July New Home Sales (635,000 forecast vs 627,000 in June)

• 22:30 USA July Personal Consumption Expenditures ("PCE")

  • Core PCE Price Index: +0.3% m/m forecast vs +0.3% m/m in June

  • Personal Income: +0.4% m/m forecast vs +0.3% m/m in June

  • Personal Spending: +0.5% m/m forecast vs +0.3% m/m in June

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +145.3% Invictus Energy (IVZ) - Strategic Investor & Alliance Agreement.

• +23.9% Tabcorp (TAH) - Full Year Results - Investor Presentation.

• +23.8% Lumos Diagnostics (LDX) - Section 708A Cleansing Statement and Excluded Information.

• +22.2% Aurelia Metals (AMI) - No news since 26-Aug FY25 Full Year Financial Results Presentation, general strength across the broader Resources sector today.

• +21.1% Siteminder (SDR) - FY25 Investor Presentation, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and long term trend is transitioning from down to up, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +17.2% Wagners Holding Company (WGN) - FY25 Results Investor Presentation, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈

• +17.2% Rpmglobal (RUL) - Investor Presentation - FY2025 Full Year Review, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈

• +16.7% Ausgold (AUC) - Poll Results from General Meeting, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +15.6% Vection Technologies (VR1) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +14.8% Kaili Resources (KLR) - No news since 26-Aug Response to ASX Query Letter, today's move is consistent with recent volatility.

• +14.7% Mithril Resources (MTH) - No news, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

Trading lower

• -22.0% Domino's Pizza Enterprises (DMP) – FY25 Full-Year Market Presentation, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, one of the most Featured (highest conviction) stocks in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -14.7% Ebos Group (EBO) – Investor Presentation.

• -14.7% Woolworths Group (WOW) – Full Year Results Presentation.

• -11.9% Wisetech Global (WTC) – WiseTech Global FY25 results investor presentation.

• -10.5% Amplia Therapeutics (ATX) – Managing Director's Presentation to AGM.

• -10.4% Droneshield (DRO) – 1H25 Results Investor Presentation.

Broker Moves

29Metals (29M)

• Retained at sell at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.16

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.40

Alfabs Australia (AAL)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.55

Acusensus (ACE)

• Retained at overweight at Wilsons; Price Target: $1.21

Acrow (ACF)

• Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $1.32

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $1.30 from $1.33

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $1.30

Australian Clinical Labs (ACL)

• Retained at positive at E&P; Price Target: $3.85 from $3.80

• Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $2.95 from $3.10

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.15

• Retained at overweight at Wilsons; Price Target: $3.85 from $3.80

Aristocrat Leisure (ALL)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $72.40

Aurelia Metals (AMI)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.27

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.30 from $0.31

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.42 from $0.50

Austin Engineering (ANG)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.50 from $0.60

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.60

Ansell (ANN)

• Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $34.64 from $33.38

• Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $36.20

AUB Group (AUB)

• Upgraded to outperform from hold at CLSA; Price Target: $38.85 from $31.50

• Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $38.00

• Retained at overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $37.20 from $38.25

• Retained at overweight at JPMorgan; Price Target: $38.00

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $37.40 from $35.45

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $39.00 from $38.70

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $35.58 from $36.67

Beforepay Group (B4P)

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $3.00

Big River Industries (BRI)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $1.65 from $1.70

BlueScope Steel (BSL)

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $24.00

Brambles (BXB)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $25.90 from $24.00

Codan (CDA)

• Downgraded to neutral from buy at UBS; Price Target: $29.60 from $18.50

Coast Entertainment Holdings (CEH)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.70 from $0.65

Coles Group (COL)

• Upgraded to buy from hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $24.40 from $22.10

• Retained at hold at Jefferies; Price Target: $21.00 from $20.00

• Retained at neutral at JPMorgan; Price Target: $21.80 from $20.00

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $25.40 from $24.10

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $21.70

• Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $23.45 from $20.95

• Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $24.00 from $22.00

• Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $24.00 from $21.00

Cedar Woods Properties (CWP)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $8.75 from $8.00

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $8.25 from $7.40

Domino's Pizza Enterprises (DMP)

• Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $18.00

Flight Centre Travel Group (FLT)

• Retained at buy at Jarden; Price Target: $18.50

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $15.20

• Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $15.00

Fortescue (FMG)

• Downgraded to neutral from overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $20.00 from $19.85

• Downgraded to sell from hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $17.05 from $17.40

• Downgraded to underperform from hold at CLSA; Price Target: $17.25 from $17.30

• Downgraded to underweight from neutral at Jarden; Price Target: $16.00 from $16.25

• Downgraded to neutral from overweight at JPMorgan; Price Target: $20.00

• Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $15.50 from $16.00

• Downgraded to trim from hold at Morgans; Price Target: $16.60 from $16.50

• Downgraded to accumulate from buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $20.00

• Retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: $17.90 from $17.40

G8 Education (GEM)

• Downgraded to hold from buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $1.06 from $1.49

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.90 from $1.15

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $0.90 from $1.30

Galan Lithium (GLN)

• Retained at speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.25 from $0.20

Goodman Group (GMG)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $40.00

Genesis Energy (GNE)

• Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.03 from $2.08

Helloworld Travel (HLO)

• Upgraded to buy from hold at Morgans; Price Target: $2.32 from $1.76

• Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $1.79 from $1.76

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $2.60

Integral Diagnostics (IDX)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $4.00 from $3.65

• Retained at buy at Jarden; Price Target: $3.41 from $3.45

• Retained at overweight at JPMorgan; Price Target: $3.40 from $3.25

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.40 from $3.20

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $3.30 from $3.00

• Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $3.45 from $3.30

• Downgraded to market-weight from overweight at Wilsons; Price Target: $3.00 from $2.75

IVE Group (IGL)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $3.10 from $3.15

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $3.40

IGO (IGO)

• Upgraded to neutral from sell at UBS; Price Target: $5.75 from $4.80

Intelligent Monitoring Group (IMB)

• Retained at speculative buy at Morgans; Price Target: $0.85 from $0.90

Imricor Medical Systems Inc (IMR)

• Retained at speculative buy at Morgans; Price Target: $2.22

Ingenia Communities Group (INA)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $7.10 from $6.20

Integrated Research (IRI)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.55 from $0.70

Jumbo Interactive (JIN)

• Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $11.20 from $11.00

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $11.50 from $11.30

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $13.90

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $15.20 from $14.60

• Retained at overweight at Wilsons; Price Target: $13.99 from $14.38

Johns Lyng Group (JLG)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.00 from $2.60

Kogan.com (KGN)

• Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $4.30 from $4.10

Kelsian Group (KLS)

• Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $5.80 from $5.60

• Upgraded to positive from neutral at E&P; Price Target: $5.35 from $4.55

• Retained at overweight at JPMorgan; Price Target: $5.20 from $4.90

• Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $4.00 from $3.50

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $5.50 from $4.80

Liberty Financial Group (LFG)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.45 from $4.30

Light & Wonder Inc. (LNW)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $199.00

Lovisa Holdings (LOV)

• Retained at underperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $25.00 from $27.00

Mader Group (MAD)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $9.00

• Downgraded to hold from buy at Moelis Australia; Price Target: $8.29 from $6.83

Microba Life Sciences (MAP)

• Retained at speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.16

• Retained at speculative buy at Morgans; Price Target: $0.29 from $0.31

Mineral Resources (MIN)

• Upgraded to buy from sell at UBS; Price Target: $40.40 from $37.40

Metals X (MLX)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.80

Nanosonics (NAN)

• Retained at sell at Bell Potter; Price Target: $4.10 from $4.05

• Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $5.43 from $5.15

• Retained at neutral at E&P; Price Target: $4.16

• Retained at underweight at JPMorgan; Price Target: $3.90 from $4.00

• Downgraded to underperform from sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $4.00 from $4.50

• Retained at overweight at Wilsons; Price Target: $6.39 from $6.00

Nine Entertainment Co. Holdings (NEC)

• Retained at neutral at E&P; Price Target: $1.70

NIB Holdings (NHF)

• Retained at overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $8.00 from $7.75

• Retained at hold at Jefferies; Price Target: $8.60 from $7.60

• Retained at overweight at JPMorgan; Price Target: $8.30 from $8.20

Noumi (NOU)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.19 from $0.18

Nufarm (NUF)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $3.45

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.08 from $3.20

Nuix (NXL)

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $3.10 from $5.70

Ora Banda Mining (OBM)

• Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $1.05

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.95 from $0.90

Propel Funeral Partners (PFP)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $5.90 from $5.50

• Upgraded to positive from neutral at E&P; Price Target: $5.73 from $4.93

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.80 from $5.66

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $5.80 from $6.30

Pilbara Minerals (PLS)

• Upgraded to neutral from sell at UBS; Price Target: $2.30 from $1.60

Perenti (PRN)

• Retained at buy at Argonaut Securities; Price Target: $2.70 from $2.21

• Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $2.15 from $1.80

• Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $2.39 from $1.96

• Retained at buy at Euroz Hartleys; Price Target: $2.92 from $2.02

Reece (REH)

• Upgraded to equal-weight from underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $12.00 from $17.00

Scentre Group (SCG)

• Retained at overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $4.45 from $4.25

• Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.37 from $3.18

• Downgraded to hold from accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $3.90 from $3.70

SiteMinder (SDR)

• Retained at buy at Jarden; Price Target: $4.45

Sigma Healthcare (SIG)

• Retained at overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $3.30

SKS Technologies Group (SKS)

• Downgraded to accumulate from buy at Morgans; Price Target: $3.15 from $2.75

• Retained at overweight at Wilsons; Price Target: $3.14 from $2.91

Supply Network (SNL)

• Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $41.50 from $38.80

SPC Global Holdings (SPG)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.90

Symal Group (SYL)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $2.50 from $2.40

The Lottery Corporation (TLC)

• Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $5.07 from $5.00

Tyro Payments (TYR)

• Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $1.67 from $1.55

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $1.60

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $1.40 from $1.35

• Retained at overweight at Wilsons; Price Target: $1.40 from $1.15

Viva Energy Group (VEA)

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $2.11

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $3.40

Vulcan Steel (VSL)

• Retained at neutral at E&P; Price Target: $6.15 from $5.97

• Retained at overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $7.60 from $7.55

• Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $6.00 from $6.25

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $7.00 from $6.50

West African Resources (WAF)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $3.40 from $3.60

• Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $5.00

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.40

WEB Travel Group (WEB)

• Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $5.25 from $5.45

• Retained at overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $5.30 from $5.40

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $6.74 from $6.19

• Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $4.25

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $7.37 from $7.96

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $6.30 from $7.10

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $5.75 from $6.20

Worley (WOR)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $15.77

Woolworths Group (WOW)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $33.00

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $33.40

• Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $31.00

Wisetech Global (WTC)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $134.00

• Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $130.00 from $110.00

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $145.00

Scans