Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to bounce, S&P 500 higher + MinRes, Woolworths and NextDC earnings

ASX 200 futures are up 47pts (+0.52%) as of 8:30 am AEST.

In a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks higher despite some currency and yield volatility from Trump's move to fire Fed governor Cook

• Long-dated bonds in the US and Europe surge as worries begin to compound (inflation, government spending and Trump's actions)

• A massive day for FY25 results, high-profile names to watch include Flight Centre, MinRes, NextDC, Tabcorp and Woolworths

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 higher, finished at best levels (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks higher, recouped most of Tuesday’s weakness to close near best levels

• Breadth was a little soft, with the Equal-weight S&P 500 underperforming the official benchmark by 34 bps

• Today’s big story: Trump’s move to fire Fed Governor Cook raises concerns new appointee gives Trump control of the board, escalating fiscal dominance risks and downside for the dollar 

• Hedge funds are shorting the VIX at highest rate since 2022 (BBG)

• Market jitters ahead of Nvidia's key earnings, AI-fueled rally has pushed Nasdaq valuation levels well-above the 25-year average (FT)

• US, France, UK long-dated bonds slump amid inflation, government spending, and Trump actions fuelling Fed independence concerns (BBG)

• Strategists see steeper yield curve, weaker dollar from erosion of Fed's independence (BBG)

• UK bond yields approached a 27-year high, adding pressure on PM Starmer's government to cut fiscal spending (BBG)

• China equity market bubble concerns fanned by liquidity flows amid weak economic backdrop (BBG)

STOCKS

• Apple to hold event on September 9th to introduce new products (TC)

• Google unveils New AI-powered live translation and language learning tools in Google Translate (WSJ)

• Eli Lilly obesity pill moves toward approval as patients lose almost 10% body weight in trial (FT)

• Nissan shares slide after Mercedes-Benz Pension Trust says will sell 3.8% stake in company (BBG)

TARIFFS

• Trump threatens to restrict tech exports and boost tariffs on any country levying digital services taxes against US companies (TS)

• US and EU agreed to address "unjustified trade barriers," though EU has said changes to its digital regulations were not on the table (BBG)

• China official to visit US this week for next round of trade talks, soybean purchases on agenda (RT)

• Indian exporters face disruptions as the US imposes a 25% tariff on all Indian goods (BBG)

• Trump meets South Korean President Lee, though trade deal to stay, talks up shipbuilding cooperation (BBG)

• Japan, Australia, Taiwan suspend shipping of small parcels to US following revocation of de minimis exemption (BBG)

• South Korea firms pledge fresh $150bn investment into US, White House says it will buy ships from South Korea (YH)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Trump removes Fed's Cook effective immediately but Cook says he doesn't have authority (BBG)

• Morgan Stanley forecasts a September rate cut by the Fed, citing Powell's shift from inflation toward labour market risks (RT)

• RBA board members saw case for gradual or faster rate cuts over coming year, dependent on data (BBG)

ECONOMY

• US July durable goods orders fell 2.8% m/m vs. consensus for a 3.5% decline, transportation equipment drove most of the headline decrease (BBG)

• German industry downturn accelerates, with nearly 250,000 jobs lost since 2019 and revenues down (RT)

• South Korean consumer confidence highest in over seven years, aided by export momentum and stimulus expectations (YH)

ASX TODAY

Today's massive day for earnings, and we’ll be covering all the key results as they drop. Follow our Live Blog for the latest company announcements, consensus numbers, market moves, and economic updates.

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Gold, uranium: Gold Miner ETF (GDX) rallied 2.2% overnight as Trump's move to fire Fed's Cook pressured the US dollar and boosted gold prices. The ETF closed at the highest level since October 2011. Uranium ETF (URA) also bouncing from recent selloff, still relatively rangebound but up 11% in the last four sessions.

• Clean beats: Watch the live blog and look out for clean results (earnings, dividend and, if provided, guidance beats). Notwithstanding some other factors (e.g. short interest, recent share price performance, relative valuations etc), these stocks often open higher, and continue to surge.

• Day twos: Coles ripped 8.5% higher yesterday after reporting a clean earnings, dividend and trading update beat. Meanwhile, smaller caps like Integral Diagnostics (+12.1), SKS Technologies (+7.4%) and Symal (+12.3%) all gained on strong results.

BROKER MOVES

• Codan downgraded to Neutral from Buy but target up to $29.60 from $18.50 (UBS)

• Coles upgraded to Buy from Hold; target up to $24.30 from $22.10 (BP)

• Fortescue downgraded to Neutral from Overweight; target remains $20.00 (JPM)

• Fortescue downgraded to Sell from Hold; target cut to $17.05 from $17.40 (BP)

• IGO upgraded to Neutral from Sell; target up to $5.75 from $4.80 (UBS)

• MinRes upgraded to Buy from Sell; target up to $40.40 from $37.40 (UBS)

• Nanosonics downgraded to Underperform from Sector perform; target cut to $4.00 from $4.50 (RBC)

• Pilbara Minerals upgraded to Neutral from Sell; target up to $2.30 from $1.60 (UBS)

• Propel Funeral Partners upgraded to Positive from Neutral; target up to $5.73 from $4.93 (E&P)

• Reece upgraded to Equal-weight from Underweight but target cut to $12.00 from $17.00 (MS)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Wed 27 Aug: Accent Group (AX1) – $0.015, Amotiv (AOV) – $0.22, Bell Financial Group (BFG) – $0.03, BSP Financial Group (BFL) – $0.306, Cogstate (CGS) – $0.02, Fat Prophets Global Contrarian Fund (FPC) – $0.05, GQG Partners (GQG) – $0.039, Maxiparts (MXI) – $0.031, Ooh!Media (OML) – $0.022, Telstra Group (TLS) – $0.095, The Lottery Corporation (TLC) – $0.085, Treasury Wine Estates (TWE) – $0.20

• Thu 28 Aug: Australian United Investment Company (AUI) – $0.28, Beach Energy (BPT) – $0.06, Boom Logistics (BOL) – $0.02, Cuscal (CCL) – $0.055, Diversified United Investment (DUI) – $0.09, Heartland Group Holdings (HGH) – $0.018, Ignite (IGN) – $0.035, IPH (IPH) – $0.195, KKR Credit Income Fund (KKC) – $0.017, REA Group (REA) – $1.38, Ventia Services Group (VNT) – $0.107, VGI Partners Global Investments (VG1) – $0.06, Woodside Energy (WDS) – $0.813

• Fri 29 Aug: Ampol (ALD) – $0.40, Carlton Investments (CIN) – $0.68, Fiducian Group (FID) – $0.247, Helia Group (HLI) – $0.43, Orora (ORA) – $0.05, Pengana International Equities (PIA) – $0.014, Platinum Capital (PMC) – $0.03, Shape Australia (SHA) – $0.125

• Mon 1 Sep: Aurizon Holdings (AZJ) – $0.065, Pinnacle Investment Management (PNI) – $0.27

• Tue 2 Sep: Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ) – $0.03, Codan (CDA) – $0.16, EQT Holdings (EQT) – $0.56, Iluka Resources (ILU) – $0.02, Lynch Group Holdings (LGL) – $0.09, MA Financial Group (MAF) – $0.06, Northern Star Resources (NST) – $0.30

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: BWP Group (BWP), Metcash (MTS)

• Larger Cap Earnings: Domino’s (DMP), Flight Centre (FLT), GenusPlus (GNP), Karoon Energy (KAR), Lovisa (LOV), Mesoblast (MSB), MinRes (MIN), NextDC (NXT), Nine Entertainment (NEC), Siteminder (SDR), Tabcorp (TAH), Westgold (WGX), Wisetech (WTC), Woolworths (WOW), Worley (WOR)

• Small-to-Mid Cap Earnings: Adairs (ADH), Attura (ATA), Australian Finance Group (AFG), Cash Converters (CCV), Dimerix (DXB), Duxton Water (D20), Duratec (DUR), EML Payments (EML), Fenix Resources (FEX), Fleetwood (FWD), Motorcycle Holdings (MTO), Paragon Care (PGC), Platinum Asset Management (PTM), RAM Essential Services (REP), Readytech (RDY), Weebit Nano (WBT)

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEST):

• 11:30 am: Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (Jul)