Evening Wrap: ASX 200 flat close hides two-speed market as gold, rare earths, banks up vs healthcare, energy slump on trump woes

Gold stocks kept up their recent fine form with near-double digit gains in Genesis Minerals (GMD) (+8.4%) and Bellevue Gold (BGL) (+8.4%). The gold price tipped another record high overnight.

Financials also contributed, with continued flight to safety and yield buying in the Big 4 banks, plus some post-results love shown to Bank of Queensland (BOQ) (+5.5%) and Zip Co. (ZIP) (+16.2%).

Rare earths stocks continued their stellar performance, basking in the warm afterglow of President Trump’s semiconductor policy that appears to be driving critical mineral demand. Lynas Rare Earths (LYC) (+4.3%) and Australian Strategic Minerals (ASM) (+12.4%) were notable.

Healthcare stocks struggled, likely due to ongoing tariff uncertainty facing the sector – as companies that have substantial US business operations like Pro Medicus (PME) (-2.6%), Resmed (RMD) (-2.3%), Cochlear (COH) (-1.2%), and CSL (-0.9%) were hit the hardest.

Also likely dragged lower by Trump administration policy, was the Energy sector, it was the worst performing area of the market today, slipping another 2.6%. Coal and Uranium stocks bore the brunt of the selling here.

To make sense of all the above, I have detailed technical analysis on the Nasdaq Composite, S&P/ASX 200, and Gold in today's ChartWatch.

Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key upcoming economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 2.8 points lower at 7,758.9, % from its session high/low and just % from its high/low. Whist benchmark showed only a miniscule loss, in the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) things were more decisive with advancers lagging decliners by 104 to 155.

The theme of yesterday's wrap was we’ve reached “at least a temporary equilibrium”. That is, the idea the panic of President Trump’s Liberation Day “reciprocal” and China specific tariffs had given way to a relief rally triggered by subsequent walk-backs…and then in some weird way…those positives are now stymied by the latest semiconductor and pharmaceuticals “probe”.

Yep, and all this the space of a couple of weeks!

If the above two paragraphs sound absurd, they are, despite the fact they’re all facts! Welcome to the new normal everyone – where absurdity reigns supreme!

Investors are beginning to realise big bets from here are probably not the best way to go. The knee-jerk and then snap-back moves are done. It’s time to consolidate and see which way the wind blows next.

To continue with that last analogy, are we now in the eye of the hurricane? 🤔

It might be worth revisiting this article I wrote just as the current correction was in its infancy. Decent timing, great content, I trust you've read it!

In the article, I take a trip down memory lane of the greatest market calamities of the past 50 years. Note how many times there was a pause after the initial hit – often even an optimistic rally recouping half-maybe-a-bit-more before the reality of the situation set in and prices really collapsed.

I am not proposing this is a course of action, it’s merely an observation from experience – I’d have to do the research to confirm my hunch…but I suspect history will suggest:

1. It was a far more common occurrence for the price action of the index in question to hover around the trend ribbons for some time before sliding into a bear market.

2. It was a far less common occurrence for the price action of the index in question to slide into a bear market after it had made a new high.

I will do the research. I must confirm this for myself. 🧐

But, for now, I propose the act of making a new high implies investors have come to terms with all the bad stuff of the time – and have completely discounted it. They’re now focussed on something else – then next thing – whatever that is.

You’ve all heard about me operating at the highest level of conservatism, check the tapes – in this very Wrap I told you this on 19-March after noting I had moved to a 50% cash + hedging this 50% exposure with shorts on 4-March.

This is the sort of hunch which backs that view: Conservatism is the way to go for now.

Picking the bottom of this correction/potentially soon to be bear market will be substantially lucrative – no doubt. But with reward comes risk.

On the other hand, waiting until the price action suggests the negatives have been discounted will mean missing the bottom completely. But it will also mean fewer and less severe headaches (and heartaches and indigestion!).

(P.S. I only just saw that comment from Henry Jennings down the bottom – wow that would be one hell of a fireside chat! I reckon I could sell tickets to Henry and I swapping old markets war stories! 😁)

ChartWatch

NASDAQ Composite Index

At the cross-roads ↔️ (click here for full size image)

Hey, I can’t take any credit for the trend ribbons – it’s pure coincidence that they do what they do.

But it’s hard to argue that the short term trend ribbon doesn’t cushion prices on the way up as well as acts as an invisible hammer – smacking prices lower – on the way down.

Look, it does until it doesn’t. And one doesn’t know exactly when it’s going to stop – and therefore when the price action will move on to doing the same stuff at the long term trend ribbon.

It is no surprise that we’re taking a little breather here. The last two candles, topping nicely in the dynamic supply of the short term trend ribbon are consistent with the recent demand-side market from 14784 finding some supply, and likely therefore transitioning towards equilibrium.

If the candles stay black-bodies / stay upward pointing shadows…then there’s a very good chance we’re going to dip again – potentially to have another look at that substantial demand zone exhibited previously around 15500-ish.

If it’s still there, and if it’s enough to consume the selling of the time, we’ll bounce and make an important higher trough to 14784 ✅.

If it’s not still there, well that would be concerning…and we’ll likely take a very close look at 14784 – and failing that – continue the prevailing bear market.

On the other hand, if the candles start to print white again, and we can close above the short term trend ribbon – then clearly there is enough excess demand in the system to indicate the worst may indeed be over. The long term trend ribbon would be next.

I can’t predict which scenario will play out. Nobody can (but some will no doubt continue to shout their predictions from the rooftops!!!). At least we have a clear-cut set of potential outcomes to watch out for – and as the price action follows one of the paths – we can adjust our risk levels accordingly.

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

Ditto ditto (click here for full size image)

I know, I know, calling “ditto” here is a bit of a cop out, but what more can I add to my XJO analysis compared to the Comp's above? 🤷

Two more candles with shadows poking into the short term trend ribbons – two more sessions where the supply-side sold into early rallies.

That sounds bearish – the supply side targeting early rallies – and it is: That is indeed a bear market trait to be fair…

But they're only incy-wincy candles! 🤏

So, a bit of supply overwhelmed a bit of demand. Not great, but no big deal.

Think about this: Why are we now seeing only a bit each way from fund managers? Well, we discussed that in the intro. The eye of the hurricane and all that stuff!

Gold Futures (Front month, back-adjusted) COMEX

Uncle Sam's loss is gold's gain (click here for full size image)

We’ve discussed many times in this Wrap the prospect that at least part of the recent demise of US Treasuries is to do with President Trump putting a bunch of major trading partners’ noses out of joint – so they’re selling their holdings of US assets – and/or international investors have lost faith in US Treasuries as a risk-free reserve asset (again because of the President’s seemingly major trade policy on the fly).

So, if you’ve just sold a few million dollars worth of Uncle Sam’s IOU’s…and you’re in the market for a new risk-free reserve asset…Where do you look? 🤔

I’m not a gold bug, so I don’t subscribe to the “gold is the only one true hard asset to rule them all” mumbo jumbo – but it’s clear that gold is going to be the destination for at least a portion of those newly recouped greenbacks.

Hence the chart above.

Sure, it will probably all end horribly for gold at some stage. It often has done when one asset seems to be the only smart place to put one’s cash. But we will see the change in the demand-supply dynamics in this chart long before it does.

Right now, it’s still a picture of excess demand. Like it was last time we looked at it (and probably 50 times before!). I have absolutely no reason to change my view here = 📈.

Economy

Today

• CHN "Data Dump" March

  • New Home Prices m/m: vs -0.14% m/m previous

  • GDP q/y: 5.4% p.a. vs +5.2% p.a. forecast and +5.4% p.a. previous

  • Industrial Production y/y: +7.7% p.a. vs +5.7% p.a. forecast and +5.9% p.a. previous

  • Retail Sales y/y: +5.9% p.a. vs +4.2% p.a. forecast and +4.0% p.a. previous

  • Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y: 4.2% p.a. vs +4.1% p.a. forecast and +4..1% p.a. previous

  • Unemployment Rate: 5.2% p.a. vs +5.3% p.a. forecast and +5.4% p.a. previous

  • I cannot recall a time in the last 15 years when the Chinese economic data dump beat on every key metric – and some by a substantial margin. These are official data, prepared by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, a government run organisation. Let's just say: Fortuitous timing! ✅✅✅

Later this week

Wednesday

• USA Core Retail Sales m/m (+0.4% m/m forecast vs +0.3% m/m previous)

Thursday

• 03:00 USA Fed Chair Powell Speech about economic outlook

• 11:30 Employment Data March

  • Employment Change: +40,200 forecast vs -52,800 in February

  • Unemployment Rate: 4.2% forecast vs 4.1% in February

• 22:15 EUR ECB Main Financing Rate (-0.25% p.a. to 2.4% p.a. forecast)

Friday

• ALL DAY AUS Public Holiday

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +23.6% Meteoric Resources (MEI) - Continued positive response to 15-Apr Barra do Pacu Resource Adds Strategic High-Grade Rare Earths, continued strength in rare earths and critical minerals sector as markets respond to prospect of US tariffs on semiconductors.

• +16.2% Zip Co. (ZIP) - 3Q FY25 Results Update and Change in substantial holding, (State Street notice possibly indicates a reduction in short selling).

• +12.5% Aurelia Metals (AMI) - Great Cobar Project Approval, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +12.4% Australian Strategic Materials (ASM) - No news since 14-Apr Response to ASX Query Letter, ditto rare earths and critical minerals stocks catching a big bid – and likely also a bunch of short covering!

• +11.9% Iperionx (IPX) - Continued positive response to 15-Apr March 2025 Quarterly Report, probably also some critical minerals stuff rubbing off here too.

• +10.8% WIA Gold (WIA) - Continued positive response to 15-Apr Resource definition drilling returns strong results, general strength across the broader Gold sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +10.7% Echoiq (EIQ) - Listing on the OTCQB Market, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +10.5% Southern Cross Gold (SX2) - No news 14-Apr SX2 FY25 Third Quarter Financials and Management Analysis, general strength across the broader Gold sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and rising peaks and rising troughs, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +9.5% MTM Critical Metals (MTM) - No news 14-Apr Quarterly Activities/Appendix 5B Cash Flow Report, rare earths / critical minerals.

• +9.4% AIC Mines (A1M) - Significant Increase in Ore Reserves, general strength across the broader Gold sector today.

• +8.4% Genesis Minerals (GMD) - Quarterly Activities Report - March 2025, general strength across the broader Gold sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +8.4% Bellevue Gold (BGL) - No news since 15-Apr Successful completion of A$156.5M institutional placement, bounced in the wake of the recent sharp selloff.

• +6.8% Ramelius Resources (RMS) - No news, general strength across the broader Gold sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +6.5% Regis Resources (RRL) - No news, general strength across the broader Gold sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +6.4% St Barbara (SBM) - No news, general strength across the broader Gold sector today.

• +6.3% Spartan Resources (SPR) - No news, general strength across the broader Gold sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +5.5% Bank of Queensland (BOQ) - 2025 Half Year Results.

• +5.4% Alkane Resources (ALK) - No news, general strength across the broader Gold sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

Trading lower

• -15.0% Select Harvests (SHV) - Business Update 2025.

• -9.1% Perpetual (PPT) - Continued negative response to 15-Apr Third Quarter FY25 Business Update, downgraded to neutral from buy at UBS and price target cut to $18.50 from $23.00.

• -9.0% Mineral Resources (MIN) - Director Resignations, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, one of the most Featured (highest conviction) stocks in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -8.2% Clarity Pharmaceuticals (CU6) - Becoming a substantial holder, (possibly indicates increased short selling activity), fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -7.4% Neuren Pharmaceuticals (NEU) - Change of Director's Interest Notice - J Basile (director purchase on market $153,158 clearly didn’t help!), fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -7.4% Whitehaven Coal (WHC) - No news, general weakness across the broader Energy sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -6.6% XRF Scientific (XRF) - Continued negative response to 15-Apr March 2025 Quarterly Trading Report.

• -6.3% Accent Group (AX1) - No news since 15-Apr Strategic Transaction with Frasers Group.

• -6.0% Silex Systems (SLX) - No news, general weakness across the broader Uranium sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -5.5% WA1 Resources (WA1) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -5.3% Vulcan Energy Resources (VUL) - No news, general weakness across the broader Lithium sector today.

• -4.6% Liontown Resources (LTR) - No news, general weakness across the broader Lithium sector today, Bell Potter cut its price target to $0.900 from $1.250, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -4.6% Boss Energy (BOE) - Change in substantial holding, general weakness across the broader Uranium sector today, (possibly indicates increased short selling activity), fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -4.6% Paladin Energy (PDN) - Paladin to defend class action, general weakness across the broader Uranium sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -4.6% Siteminder (SDR) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -4.5% IGO (IGO) - No news, general weakness across the broader Lithium sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -4.4% Lifestyle Communities (LIC) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -4.3% Coronado Global Resources (CRN) - No news, general weakness across the broader Energy sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -4.2% Stanmore Resources (SMR) - Change in substantial holding, general weakness across the broader Energy sector today, (Regal Funds Management cut stake from 7.57% to 5.92%), fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

Broker Moves

• Accent Group (AX1)

  • Retained at overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $2.13 from $2.06

  • Retained at overweight at JP Morgan; Price Target: $2.40

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $2.70

  • Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $2.00 from $2.20

• Bellevue Gold (BGL)

  • Upgraded to buy from hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.150 from $1.300

• Beach Energy (BPT)

  • Downgraded to hold from buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.350 from $1.700

• Collins Foods (CKF)

  • Retained at outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $10.10 from $10.23

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $10.00

  • Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $8.50 from $8.20

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $9.80

  • Retained at overweight at Wilsons; Price Target: $10.72

• Chorus (CNU)

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: NZ$8.50

• Coronado Global Resources (CRN)

  • Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.280 from $0.750

• EBR Systems (EBR)

  • Upgraded to add from speculative buy at Morgans; Price Target: $2.86

• Evolution Mining (EVN)

  • Downgraded to hold from buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $8.10 from $7.89

  • Retained at hold at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $7.75 from $7.25

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $7.00

  • Retained at outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $9.05 from $8.60

  • Retained at hold at Jefferies; Price Target: $7.00 from $6.50

  • Downgraded to underperform from neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $6.30 from $6.20

  • Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $5.55

  • Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $8.00 from $5.90

  • Retained at lighten at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $6.75 from $6.25

  • Retained at underperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $5.80 from $5.50

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $8.00

• Fenix Resources (FEX)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.410

• Genesis Minerals (GMD)

  • Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $3.75 from $3.30

• Gold Road Resources (GOR)

  • Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $3.00 from $2.50

• GQG Partners (GQG)

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $3.00 from $3.30

  • Upgraded to buy from neutral at UBS; Price Target: $2.60 from $2.55

• Hastings Technology Metals (HAS)

  • Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.140

• Hub24 (HUB)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $75.00 from $78.00

  • Upgraded to neutral from underweight at Jarden; Price Target: $63.00 from $66.65

  • Upgraded to hold from underperform at Jefferies; Price Target: $71.25 from $72.00

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $74.20 from $89.30

  • Upgraded to buy from hold at Moelis Australia; Price Target: $77.28 from $88.58

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $90.00

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $74.00 from $76.00

• Insignia Financial (IFL)

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $4.00 from $5.00

• Iperionx (IPX)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $5.90

• Lunnon Metals (LM8)

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.600

• Liontown Resources (LTR)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.900 from $1.250

• Meteoric Resources (MEI)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.360

• Magellan Financial Group (MFG)

  • Upgraded to buy from neutral at UBS; Price Target: $8.85 from $8.20

• Northern Star Resources (NST)

  • Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $19.40 from $16.80

• Netwealth Group (NWL)

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $27.00 from $28.00

• Pilbara Minerals (PLS)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $2.00 from $3.00

• Patriot Battery Metals (PMT)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.400 from $0.700

• Pinnacle Investment Management Group (PNI)

  • Retained at neutral at Bell Potter; Price Target: $18.40 from $19.50

• Pantoro (PNR)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.030 from $0.150

• Polymetals Resources (POL)

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $1.350

• Perpetual (PPT)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $22.80 from $24.80

  • Retained at hold at CLSA; Price Target: $17.80 from $22.00

  • Retained at overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $22.75

  • Retained at neutral at JP Morgan; Price Target: $17.00 from $22.00

  • Downgraded to neutral from buy at UBS; Price Target: $18.50 from $23.00

• Prospect Resources (PSC)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.400

• Platinum Asset Management (PTM)

  • Retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: $0.500 from $0.510

• QPM Energy (QPM)

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.120

• Reece (REH)

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $16.40 from $21.00

• Ramelius Resources (RMS)

  • Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $2.80 from $2.35

• St Barbara (SBM)

  • Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.300 from $0.240

• Sandfire Resources (SFR)

  • Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $11.75 from $10.85

• Stanmore Resources (SMR)

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $2.20 from $4.00

• Step One Clothing (STP)

  • Initiated at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.300

• Vault Minerals (VAU)

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.600 from $0.520

• WEB Travel Group (WEB)

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $6.00 from $6.70

• Westgold Resources (WGX)

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $3.85 from $3.40

• Whitehaven Coal (WHC)

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $7.80 from $9.50

Scans