Morning Wrap: ASX 200 futures flat, S&P 500 eases + Bank of Queensland, Zip earnings

ASX 200 futures are down 3pts (-0.04%) as of 8:30 am AEST.

In a nutshell:

• A relatively uneventful overnight session, with major benchmarks closing slightly lower despite a positive open

• Bank of America's monthly survey flags the fifth most bearish results in the past 25 years

• Bank of Queensland 1H25 results look relatively in-line with market expectations, Zip shares to rise on FY25 earnings upgrade

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 lower, finished off worst levels (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• US benchmarks finished mostly lower and near worst levels 

• Stocks failed to hold on to early gains in a relatively uneventful session – featuring better-than-expected earnings from Citi, JPMorgan and Johnson & Johnson, further stabilisation in US 10-year yield and easing VIX

• Bessent rejects speculation that foreign nations are dumping US treasuries, says they have a big toolkit if needed for bonds (BBG)

• IEA cut its forecasts oil demand growth for both 2025 and 2026 (YF)

STOCKS

• Johnson & Johnson tops Q1 expectations, lifts 2025 sales outlook, expects $400 million in tariff-related costs, mostly related to China (AP)

• Citi profit beats estimates, moves towards target as trading revenue jumps (RT)

• Elliot Management takes $1.5bn stake in Hewlett Packard, hopes to engage the company with discussions on how to improve shareholder value (CNBC)

• LVMH shares dip 8pc as first quarter sales miss expectations, US consumers pulled back on beauty products while sales in China remain weak (RT)

• Netflix aims to hit $1tn market cap and double revenue by 2030 (WSJ)

• Eli Lilly's Mounjaro launch in India ignites wave of weight-loss enquiries (Reuters)

BofA MONTHLY SURVEY

• Fifth most bearish fund manager survey in the past 25 years

• Fourth highest recession expectations (42%)  in the past 20 years 

• Investors are maximum bearish on macro but not yet peak bearish on the market

• Fund managers expect asset prices to hold the recent low on potential tariff easing, Fed rate cuts or resilient economic data

• Hard landing expectations surge to 49% from 11% in March

• Global growth expectations hit a 30 year low while year-ahead inflation expectations jumped a record 50 percentage points month-on-month 

• Gold is now seen as the most crowded trade, breaking a 24-month streak from long Mag-7

CENTRAL BANKS

• BoJ is likely to put rate hike aside due to US tariff uncertainty, ex-official says (BBG)

• RBA minutes expressed caution over future rate cuts, saying May would be an "opportune time" to revisit policy settings (BBG)

TARIFFS

• EU expects US tariffs to stay as talks make little progress (BBG)

• US importers are seeking space in customs bonded warehouses to delay paying tariffs (BBG)

• US has not yet informed EU what it wants to lift tariffs, says EU commission (FT)

• Trump initiates trade probs into semis and pharma, which could broaden the US trade war (BBG)

• Japan is set for talks with the US this week, which will test Trump's appetite to strike a trade deal (BBG)

• US to demand EU pull away from China in return for cutting tariffs (IT)

• US will impose a 20.91% anti-dumping duty of Mexican tomatoes starting July (BBG)

ECONOMY

• German investors morale hits lowest since start of Ukraine war (RT)

• China Q1 GDP likely grew 5.2% in months before US tariffs (BBG)

ASX TODAY

• Aristocrat Leisure shops around for takeovers, Interblock flagged as a potential target (The Aus)

• Frasers Group announces long-term strategic retail agreement with Accent Group to launch and operate Sports Director brand across Australia and New Zealand (AX1)

• Star Entertainment reports 1H25 normalised EBITDA loss of $26.4m, revenue down 25% to $649.6m, says monthly trading in March quarter has continued to deteriorate (SGR)

• Rio Tinto reports first quarter Pilbara iron ore production of 69.8Mt vs. 74Mt consensus (RIO)

• Telix’s Illuccix approved in Sweden, discloses preliminary data for treatment TLX101 for high-grade glioma (TLX) 

• Zip reports Q3 cash EBTDA up 219.4% YoY to $46m, total transaction value up 35.7% to $3.3bn, upgrades FY25 guidance for cash EBTDA of at least $153m (ZIP)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Accent Group – Entered into a joint venture with UK’s Frasers Group to launch their Sports Direct brand. Frasers will increase holding in Accent to 19.6%. Last month, Citi analysts said Accent’s FY24 EBITDA could see ~11% upside if Sports Direct achieves just ⅓ of Rebel’s store network. The deal could drive a bit of a re-rate for Accent over the next few days given the earnings implications.

• Bank of Queensland – 1H25 results are due this morning. Consensus expects $169.8m cash NPAT and 1.58% net interest margin. Macquarie analysts forecast an interim dividend of 17 cents per share. Any substantial beat/miss in terms of NIM or dividend could lead to substantial share price volatility.

• Zip – Very strong Q3 numbers and FY25 EBTDA upgrade. This follows an upgrade at the half-year result which raised EBTDA guidance to $147m, now "at least $153m". Back then, Citi was expecting $142m, so expect Zip to catch a bid this morning

BROKER MOVES

• Evolution Mining downgraded to Underperform from Neutral but target up to $6.30 from $6.20 (EVN)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Wed 16 Apr: Australian Clinical Labs (ACL), Bravura Solutions (BVS), IVE Group (IGL), Qantas (QAN) 

• Thu 17 Apr: None

• Fri 18 Apr: None

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: Chorus (CNU), Garda Property Group (GDF), HUB24 (HUB), Kina Securities (KSL), Super Retail Group (SUL)

• Listing: None 

• Earnings: Bank of Queensland (BOQ)

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEST):

• 12:00 pm: China GDP Growth (MAR)

• 12:00 pm China Industrial Production (MAR)

• 12:00 pm: China Retail Sales (MAR)

• 12:00 pm: China Fixed Asset Investment (MAR)

• 12:00 pm: China GDP Growth (Q1)

• 4:00 pm: UK Inflation (MAR)

• 10:30 pm: US Retail Sales (MAR)

• 11:45 pm: Bank of Canada Rate Decision (ests – hold at 2.75%)