Evening Wrap: ASX 200 dumps 118 points on tech wreck as WTC, XRO and Life 360's hellish week reaches nasty conclusion

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 118.9 points lower, down 1.36%.

Down + stayed down. It never really even looked like investors had any intent of fishing for some “bargains” today. The tech wreck continued – accelerated more like it – with heavy losses in Megaport (MP1) (-9.6%), Weebit Nano (WBT) (-8.6%), Catapult Sports (CAT) (-7.8%), and Life360 (360) (-6.7%). Yesterday's wipeout, Xero (XRO), lost another 4%.

Not much was spared, with just energy and lithium stocks edging higher in what was a nasty end to a nasty week for Aussie stocks... 😭

Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the S&P/ASX 200 in today's ChartWatch.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 118.9 points lower at 8,634.5, 1.4% from its session high and just 0.26% from its low. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) advancers lagged decliners by a dismal 47 to 228.

For the week, the XJO finished down 135 points or 1.5% lower, 2.8% from its intraweek high and just 0.26% from its intraweek low.

Fund flows: Too much to bear! 🐻

Flat as a pancake.

That’s how I’d describe today’s intraday chart above! 🥞

Down + stayed down. It never really even looked like the demand-side had any intent of fishing for some “bargains”. Today’s below average volume (see the XJO chart in ChartWatch below) suggests that demand was on strike – either unwilling or unable to come to market. If there is a saving grace, it’s that after the initial price adjustment, the supply-side wasn’t very motivated to offer more stock at lower prices.

Looking the fund flows, and apart from Energy (XEJ) (+0.2%) (energy commodities rebounded last night… perhaps a touch of low P/E as well), it was defence if you had to buy something with Utilities (XUJ) (-0.1%) and Consumer Staples (XSJ) (-0.2%) the least worst.

At the other end of the spectrum, and I expect no surprise to anyone who suffers through this wrap on a regular basis, Information Technology (XIJ) (-4.4%). Financials (XFJ) (-1.9%) continued to also cop some stick on the back of a couple of disappointing updates, plus damaging higher bond yields.

Gold Sub-Index (XGD) (-2.2%) pullback… gold and silver prices took a breather last night – high beta sector…

In the middle, Resources (XJR) (-1.3%) had to have a down day at some point – and even it couldn’t defy today’s negativity. The lithium sector was still pretty decent, though.

Consumer Discretionary (XDJ) (-1.3%) remains unloved.

Today's best blue chip gainers

Today's worst blue chip losers

ChartWatch

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

Analysis

In some ways, yesterday’s last-hour rally – which managed to drag the Old Tin Pot back above the 8731 point of demand – didn’t help us. It meant that I delayed cutting my portfolio risk limit i.e., the maximum risk I can fill my portfolio “risk bucket” up to, to 1/3RP (Risk Position).

In many ways, though… it doesn’t really matter. We were on the way there... and to be fair, my 50% cash weighting is still better than the vast majority of funds out there that are mandated to have cash levels of 5-10% maximum!

For those of you who are new to ChartWatch, I was already at 1/2RP (since the 7-Nov candle) after moving to 1/3RP (since the 30-Oct) candle.

But there’s a kicker. If you’re a long time sufferer of my work, you'll know that in my ChartWatch ASX Scan’s articles the Downtrends Scan List has steadily swollen, and swollen, since the OTP made its record high only a few weeks ago. Falling stock prices = Bonanza if you can go short 💰.

Before I go on, I better address this item: The Market Index admin team is getting a little cranky with all the emails they’re getting asking them what the “Old Tin Pot” aka the “OTP” is!

It’s just my pet name for the Australian stock market. Consider that at one point, we had an index literally named the “All Ordinaries” as our benchmark! 🤦

And there ain’t no market more ordinary than ours: A few banks, a few resources, Telstra, Wesfarmers, and CSL.

There’s about 98.9% of the present ASX 200 benchmark’s market cap right there – and it is a market cap weighted index. It's not the stuff the biggest fund managers in the modern world are usually looking for.

Am I being too harsh? 🤔 I know many patriotic Aussie investors swear by the OTP: “But Carl, my fully franked dividends…!!!”.

Hey, it’s just my opinion, but can I suggest – just look at the bloody chart above! Very Old Tin Pot-ish!

And if it didn’t make so much sense from a technical standpoint, you’d almost be annoyed! 😉

Trends. Price Action. Candles. They certainly told the story: Line by line, candle by candle over the past few weeks. At least we had some fair warning this time, because it’s not always the case.

And this is where the OTP stands as of today’s strong supply-side candle (i.e., black-bodied with close very near the low):

(Consistent with demand-side control = ✅ vs Consistent with supply-side control = ❌)

• ST / LT Trends ⬇️/⬆️; the short term downtrend ribbon appears to be acting as a zone of dynamic excess supply ❌, the long term uptrend ribbon is being challenged as a zone of dynamic excess demand ⚠️

• Price action: falling peaks and falling troughs, decent separation between the 8876-9116 peaks (i.e., strong supply reinforcement) vs extending well past the last trough (i.e., strong demand removal) ❌

• Candles: Predominance of supply-side candles (i.e. black-bodied and or upward pointing shadows) since the 21-Oct 9116 peak ❌

❌⚠️❌❌

As I said yesterday, upon a close below yesterday's demand-side showing (i.e., the candle's low) "it will be hard to argue anything but clear supply-side control." After today's candle – there's no argument from me...

View

My trend model requires a reduction to the maximum level of risk I can add to my "risk bucket" to 1/3RP 🪣. (i.e., my personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in Australian stocks is 33%). This is the lowest setting I use, as it allows for the fact there will still be strong uptrends around, plus the opportunity to apply risk to short trades.

Key levels

The long term uptrend ribbon is the closest zone of demand (presently 8545-8695). If the XJO price closed below it, the long term uptrend is neutralised ⚠️. The short term uptrend ribbon is the closest zone of supply (presently 8950-8970). In the absence of other confirming demand-side control signals, the XJO must close back above this point to demonstrate the demand-side is moving back into control.

Economy

Today

• CHN October Data Dump

  • New Home Prices: -0.45% m/m vs -0.41% m/m in September

  • Fixed Asset Investment: -1.7% ytd/y vs -0.8% ytd/y forecast and -0.5% ytd/y in September

  • Industrial Production: +4.9% p.a. vs +5.5% p.a. forecast and +6.5% p.a. in September

  • Retail Sales: +2.9% p.a. vs +2.8% p.a. forecast and +3.0% p.a. in September

  • Unemployment Rate: 5.1% vs 5.2% forecast and 5.2% in October

Later this week

Saturday

• Tentative due to govt shutdown – USA October Core Producer Price Index (PPI)

• Tentative due to govt shutdown – USA October Retail Sales

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +14.8% Caprice Resources (CRS) – No news since 12-Nov High-Grade Results Extend Gold Mineralisation at Depth, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +11.8% Lake Resources (LKE) – No news, general strength across the broader Lithium sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and long-term trend is transitioning from down to up, added to ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list yesterday 🔎📈

• +11.5% Nyrada (NYR) – No news.

• +9.7% Webjet Group (WJL) – No news since 13-Nov Webjet Group releases preliminary 1H26 trading results.

• +8.0% Ausgold (AUC) – No news since 13-Nov KGP Permitting Update, bounced perfectly from long-term uptrend ribbon! 🔎📈

• +6.5% Horizon Minerals (HRZ) – Horizon to divest Lake Johnston for $35M.

• +6.4% Felix Gold (FXG) – Outcome of Continuous Disclosure Policy Review.

• +6.1% Global X Ultra Short Nasdaq-100 Complex ETF (SNAS) – No news, (short Nasdaq ETF).

• +5.3% Core Lithium (CXO) – 2025 AGM Presentation, general strength across the broader Lithium sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short-term uptrend and long-term trend is transitioning from down to up, added to ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list yesterday 🔎📈

Trading lower

• -16.5% Rox Resources (RXL) – Institutional Placement to fund project development, general weakness across the broader Precious Metals sector today.

• -10.5% Locksley Resources (LKY) – Appointment of Experienced Geologist Ian Stockton to Board, general weakness across the broader Critical Minerals sector today.

• -9.8% BetaShares Crypto Innovators ETF (CRYP) – No news (heavy falls in major Crypto's overnight).

• -9.6% Megaport (MP1) – No news, general weakness across the broader Information Technology sector today.

• -8.7% Cobalt Blue Holdings (COB) – No news, general weakness across the broader Critical Minerals sector today.

• -8.6% Weebit Nano (WBT) – No news, general weakness across the broader Information Technology sector today.

• -8.0% Hub24 (HUB) – No news, general weakness across the broader Information Technology sector today.

• -7.8% Catapult Sports (CAT) – No news, general weakness across the broader Information Technology sector today.

• -7.6% Silex Systems (SLX) – No news, general weakness across the broader Uranium sector today.

• -7.2% Bravura Solutions (BVS) – No news, general weakness across the broader Information Technology sector today.

• -7.1% Peninsula Energy (PEN) – No news, general weakness across the broader Uranium sector today.

• -6.8% Alkane Resources (ALK) – No news since Q1 FY2026 Earnings Presentation, general weakness across the broader Precious Metals sector today.

• -6.7% Life360 (360) – No news, general weakness across the broader Information Technology sector today.

• -6.7% Codan (CDA) – No news, general weakness across the broader Information Technology sector today.

• -6.5% Block (XYZ) – No news, general weakness across the broader Information Technology sector today.

• -6.5% Sun Silver (SS1) – No news, general weakness across the broader Precious Metals sector today.

• -6.0% Global X Ultra Long Nasdaq-100 Complex ETF (LNAS) – No news (long Nasdaq ETF).

• -5.9% Global X Uranium ETF (ATOM) – No news, general weakness across the broader Uranium sector today (uranium ETF).

• -5.7% Lotus Resources (LOT) – No news, general weakness across the broader Uranium sector today.

Broker Moves

AML3D (AL3)

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.40

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA)

• Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $143.20 from $144.80

Computershare (CPU)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $40.40

• Upgraded to buy from neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $40.00 from $39.50

• Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $41.55

CSL (CSL)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $256.00 from $248.00

Core Lithium (CXO)

• Upgraded to buy from hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.23

Domino's Pizza Enterprises (DMP)

• Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $25.00 from $18.00

EBR Systems Inc (EBR)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $2.43 from $2.25

• Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $2.86

Global Lithium Resources (GL1)

• Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.50 from $0.20

Graincorp (GNC)

• Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $8.50 from $9.10

• Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $8.71 from $9.05

• Retained at outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $9.20 from $9.40

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $8.84 from $9.20

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $9.80 from $9.95

Infratil (IFT)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $14.10

IGO (IGO)

• Upgraded to buy from accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $7.50 from $5.50

Ingenia Communities Group (INA)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $7.10

Liontown Resources (LTR)

• Upgraded to hold from sell at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $1.25 from $0.75

Lynas Rare Earths (LYC)

• Upgraded to outperform from neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $17.00

Mineral Resources (MIN)

• Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $55.00

Metals X (MLX)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $1.10

Navigator Global Investments (NGI)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $3.50

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $3.85 from $3.40

Orica (ORI)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $26.00 from $23.00

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $27.10 from $24.05

• Retained at outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $27.00 from $24.50

• Retained at positive at E&P; Price Target: $25.17 from $22.34

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $25.95 from $22.71

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $23.00

• Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $28.00 from $24.76

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $26.00 from $23.00

• Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $27.50 from $24.70

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $27.00 from $25.00

Propel Funeral Partners (PFP)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $5.90

Pilbara Minerals (PLS)

• Upgraded to hold from sell at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $3.60 from $1.35

Rio Tinto (RIO)

• Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $136.00 from $129.00

Regis Resources (RRL)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $7.20 from $6.80

Superloop (SLC)

• Upgraded to buy from overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $3.40 from $3.20

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.55

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $3.40 from $3.90

Tabcorp Holdings (TAH)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $1.02 from $1.15

Wildcat Resources (WC8)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.35 from $0.30

Waratah Minerals (WTM)

• Initiated at speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.95

Xero (XRO)

• Upgraded to positive from neutral at E&P; Price Target: $165.00 from $175.00

• Retained at hold at Jefferies; Price Target: $135.50 from $167.70

• Retained at overweight at JPMorgan; Price Target: $180.00 from $195.00

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $225.00 from $235.00

• Retained at accumulate at Morgans; Price Target: $141.00 from $215.00

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $194.00 from $203.00

Scans