ASX 200 Live Today - Friday, 14th November

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Friday, November 14. We’re excited to trial this new format. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. Today's live blog will wrap up at 2:00 pm AEDT. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.

---

ASX 200 down ~1.4% this week

[2:10 pm] ASX 200 is set to record three consecutive weeks of declines, down 5% since the 21-Oct record high. The session mirrored Wall Street, where Energy (+0.54%), Staples (+0.01%) and Utilities (-0.08%) are relatively unscathed, while everything else traded broadly lower. Breadth was unsurprisingly poor, with 162 constituents (81%) trading lower. Tech is a sector that's unraveled rather aggressively, especially local names like Qoria, TechnologyOne, Wisetech, Xero, Pro Medicus and more.

Despite the recent weakness, the ASX 200 has yet to touch the 200-day moving average (missed it by ~0.25% today). The market's become increasingly oversold and due for a short-term bounce. That said, the sharp deterioration in market breadth and ongoing concerns about the RBA (no more rate cuts), Fed (hawkish policymakers) and inflation could drive further volatility as the market tries to find a low.

---

Oil prices spike

[1:14 pm] Oil prices are trading sharply higher, with Brent up ~2.6% to US$64.21 since 10:00 am AEDT. There are reports that Russia's oil terminal Novorossiysk has been 'annihilated' by Ukraine. Novorossiysk is one of Russia's main Black Sea ports for exporting crude oil and oil products.

Woodside is currently trading 0.3% higher, up from intraday lows of -1.0%.

Brent crude intraday price chart (Source: TradingView)

---

Analysts' take on Xero

[12:25 pm] Xero shares dipped 9.0% on Thursday after reporting a small revenue miss and slightly softer-than-expected subscriber growth, alongside noise from its Melio acquisition/integration. Melio's revenue growth topped market expectations offset by lagging margin progress and higher than expected integration costs.

• E&P retained Positive, lowered target from $175.00 to $165.00. Revenue slightly missed but EBITDA marginally beat, subscriber growth just below consensus, and valuation now looks attractive after recent share price decline.

• Jarden lowered target from $196.00 to $183.00. Market reaction seen as overly negative, Melio gross margins stagnant, but AMRR trends suggest stronger H2 performance.

• JPMorgan lowered target from $195.00 to $180.00, maintains Overweight. Subscriber additions strong versus internal forecast, ARPU growth solid, though integration timing adds uncertainty.

• Morgan Stanley lowered target from $235.00 to $225.00, maintains Overweight. Core software performance resilient and Melio strategically sound, but further execution evidence needed for rerating.

---

Stocks coming off lows

[12:20 pm] ASX 200 currently down 1.38% vs. session low of -1.61%. While the index doesn't look pretty, plenty of stocks are bouncing off intraday lows. A few that come to mind include CBA (now -1.6% vs. -2.6%), Paladin Energy (-2.1% vs. -5.6%), Northern Star (-3.7% vs. -7.5%) and more.

---

Lithium stocks buck the trend

[11:00 am] It's a sea of red out there but lithium stocks are trading slightly higher, likely thanks to two key tailwinds over the past few days.

• China’s lithium royalty reform lifts domestic lepidolite costs by roughly US$20–30 a tonne, raising the global cost floor and improving the relative economics for Australian spodumene producers such as MinRes.

• POSCO’s US$765 million purchase of 30% of MinRes’ lithium business implies a valuation around 45% above consensus and meaningfully reduces MinRes’ net debt, signalling renewed confidence in high-quality lithium assets.

---

Wagners tries to rally on FY26 guidance

[10:59 am] Wagners briefly rallied 12.5% in early trade, now up just 1.1% ($3.39).

The company noted a strong start to FY26 at its AGM this morning, guiding to 1H26 EBIT of $31-33m vs. $23.4m ests (36.8% beat) and FY26 EBIT of $52-56m vs. $43.3m ests (24.7% beat).

Company page: Wagners (WGN)

---

Top ASX 200 decliners

[10:28 am] Expanded the list to 20 stocks (vs. the usual 10). TPG traded ex-dividend (return of capital of $1.61 per share) while a broad range of uranium, gold and tech stocks are sharply lower in early trade.

---

Top ASX 200 gainers

[10:26 am] A few cautious gainers in early trade, mostly defensive names. Lithium stocks also holding up relatively well and Guzman Y Gomez is slightly higher (though still near record lows).

---

ASX 200 dips 1.5pc

[10:02 am] ASX 200 opens 1.55% lower to 8,614 pts.

• On track for a four day losing streak, down 2.5%

• Down 5.2% from 21-Oct record high

• About to touch the 200-day moving average for the first time since 29 April

• RSI most oversold since Liberation Day

ASX 200 daily chart (Source: TradingView)

---

Virgin provides Q1 update at AGM

[9:44 am] Virgin reiterated steady operating momentum and a cleaner FY26 outlook, with capacity, revenue and cost settings tracking to plan and transformation benefits underpinning margin improvement.

• Q1 domestic capacity grew 5% year-on-year and full-year FY26 capacity guidance is unchanged at around 3%.

• RASK is on track for 3-5% growth in 1H26, while cost inflation remains broadly aligned with expectations.

• FY26 net capex guidance lowered to $800m from $900m, with aircraft delivery timelines unchanged.

• Velocity continues to trade to plan and the group does not expect any material impact from potential RBA changes to surcharges and interchange fees.

• Management reaffirmed expectations for FY26 EBIT margin expansion, supported by roughly $400m in transformation program benefits.

Company page: Virgin Australia (VGN)

---

Acrow provides 1H26 guidance

[9:36 am] Formwork and construction company Acrow has guided to 1H26 adjusted EBITDA between $37-40 million vs. $41.2m consensus.

Management commentary: "Acrow enters FY26 with solid foundations and a record pipeline of opportunities across both formwork and industrial access. Our roadmap for growth is clear—driven by the consolidation of acquisitions, cross-selling and organic expansion. With the Australian Government committed to more than $126 billion in major national infrastructure projects over the next five years, and recurring revenues from industrial access continuing to grow, we are well positioned for continued success."

Company page: Acrow (ACF)

---

Analysts' take on Aristocrat Leisure

[9:27 am] Aristocrat's FY25 result was slightly ahead of market expectations, though the stock dipped 7.5% on Thursday after its gaming operations flagged below forecast net ads and revenue mix skewed towards lower-margin products.

• UBS lowered its target from $75 to $72.70, maintains Buy. The analyst sees the market as having overreacted to the net installs miss, with gaming mix and one-off interactive costs weighing on results but DTC momentum providing a recurring benefit and valuation now looking more compelling.

• Jarden lowered its target from $75 to $74, maintains Buy. The analyst believes the share price drop was disproportionate to the earnings beat, with a strong product pipeline, improving Gaming Ops and scalable Interactive offering a credible medium-term growth outlook.

• Morgans lowered its target from $77 to $73, upgraded to Buy from Accumulate. The analyst notes interactive weakness as a longer-term concern while gaming softness should recover, and Product Madness performed well as FPD improved through a shift in content mix.

---

Pretty quiet morning (so far)

[9:15 am] Not a whole lot to look at so far this morning. Could be in for a quiet one.

---

Verizon to cut 15,000 jobs

[9:06 am] Verizon is preparing a sweeping cost-cutting and restructuring push under its new CEO as it battles subscriber losses and weak stock performance. This reinforced the labour market softening vs. elevated inflation theme.

• Weighing layoffs affecting 10,000 to 15,000 employees, excluding unionised workers, as part of Schulman’s plan to regain market share and overhaul culture and cost structure.

• Convert 200 company-owned stores into franchises, signalling a broader shift toward a lighter retail footprint.

• The moves follow three straight quarters of mobile subscriber declines and years of underperformance versus major rivals, prompting Schulman’s commitment to aggressively reset Verizon’s financial and operational profile.

Source: Bloomberg

---

December rate cut expectations hit <50%

[9:04 am] The latest hawkish commentary dragged December rate cut expectations to 48% (the lowest since Fed resumed easing in September), according to CME's FedWatch tool.

However, the market is still pricing ~75 bps of cuts through 2026.

Source: CME Fedwatch tool

---

Hawkish Fedspeak weighs on rate cut odds

[8:55 am] Fed speakers collectively pushed back on near-term easing, stressing inflation risks, data gaps, and the need to preserve credibility.

• Collins: Signaled a high bar for additional cuts and reluctance to ease without clear labour market deterioration, highlighting the challenge of operating amid a data vacuum.

• Mulsalem: Urged caution, said policy has little room to ease without becoming too accommodative, and expects Q4 softness followed by a Q1 rebound around potential.

• Daly: Said it is too early to decide on a December cut and characterised the policy stance as broadly neutral.

• Hammack: Argued policy should stay restrictive to protect inflation credibility and warned that continued cuts could undermine confidence in the 2.0% target.

---

Mixed views on price and consumers heading into holiday season

[8:52 am] Holiday spending signals are mixed, with businesses managing tariff pressures, consumers tightening in some areas, and wealth-tier behaviour diverging.

• BofA said retailers may use a lighter promotional period to quietly pass through tariff-related cost increases, echoing Bloomberg’s observation that Black Friday discounts are thinner and some items are selling at full price.

• Consumer surveys are conflicting: PwC points to a 5% year-on-year drop in planned holiday spending, while the NRF expects roughly 4% growth to over $1 trillion.

• Deloitte sees more Americans travelling over the holiday period but with shorter, cheaper trips, reflecting broad budget caution.

• Sentiment has deteriorated most among higher-income households, challenging the typical K-shaped narrative, though luxury travel demand remains robust with record rates still seeing strong uptake.

---

Heavy day on Wall Street

[8:50 am] Only Energy (+0.31%) and Staples (+0.00%) managed to finish the session unscathed in what was a rather heavy overnight session.

S&P 500 heatmap (Source: TradingView)

---

How the market performs after shutdowns ended

[8:47 am] Epic table from Subu Trade showing how the S&P 500 and Nasdaq performed following the end of historical government shutdowns.

Source: SubuTrade.com

---

Longest shutdown ends on day 43

[8:47 am] The reopening eases immediate uncertainty but leaves a messy data backdrop that complicates the Fed’s near-term policy assessment.

• The bill passed 222 to 209 and funds the government only through January 2026, meaning another shutdown risk is already on the horizon.

• Key programs such as SNAP resume and federal workers receive back pay, but most discretionary spending decisions remain unresolved.

• The extended shutdown created a major data blackout, with October jobs and CPI reports unlikely to be released and the Fed forced to operate with significant information gaps ahead of its 10 December meeting.

• Agencies may need to merge or skip key datasets to catch up, with JPMorgan flagging potential combined payroll releases and judgment-based CPI estimates due to missing October and partial November data.

---

Good morning!

[8:35 am] ASX 200 futures are down 139pts (-1.60%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

• That is not a typo

• Major US benchmarks dipped, though no specific driver behind the relatively broad risk-off move

• Potential drivers include US October and CPI data may never be released, three Fed policy makers said they are more concerned about inflation, Verizon announced plans to cut 15,000 jobs, AI sentiment volatility and new US government funding bill only extends deadline to 30 January 2026

If you’re new to the blog – catch up quick via today’s Morning Wrap.