Evening Wrap: ASX 200 closes out bumper week on strong footing, and with a record close now but a whisker away...

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 38.2 points higher, up 0.49%.

A strong performance on the local bourse today with all but one sector rising (and that one didn't fall by very much).

Gold stocks led the charge, but Consumer Stocks also chipped in. Resources bounced with the iron ore majors, but lithium was again left behind.

We're now less than 0.7% from tipping a new record high – a major relief for investors given May's uncertainty.

Will we do it next week? And could we see an 8 in front of the S&P/ASX 200...

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 38.2 points higher at 7,860, 0.49% from its session low and just 0.02% from its high. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO), advancers beat decliners by 169 to 102.

For the week, the XJO finished up 158.3 points or 2.1% higher, smack-bang on its intraweek high – nice! 👍

The Gold (XGD) (+1.6%) sub-index was again the best performing sector today, closing out a second week of gains as both gold and silver prices continued to firm (see ChartWatch for technical analysis of silver). As can be seen in the table below, 2-3% gains were not uncommon.

Best performers in the ASX Gold sector today

Also doing well today was the Consumer Discretionary (XDJ) (+%) sector. It was a real day of the dogs as some of the most beaten down stocks in the sector rebounded. Market pricing of the first interest rate cut keeps getting reeled in, and this is no doubt helping (it was October 2025 at the start of the week, but is now back to May).

Best Consumer Discretionary stocks today

Not at the top of the sector performance list, but better than its performance earlier in the week, Resources (XJR) (+0.7%). Investors will be happy with the rebound in iron ore majors BHP Group (ASX: BHP) (+1.1%), Rio Tinto (ASX: RIO) (0.64%), and Fortescue (ASX: FMG) (+1.3%) from which the vast majority of that +0.7% was derived.

Don't forget gold also contributed to Resource's gain, which means there must have been plenty of mediocrity within the sector as well. We can't discuss mediocre this week, without discussing ailing lithium stocks – which with the exception of just a few were generally hit hard again today.

ASX lithium sector performance

The only sector in the red today (it wasn’t Energy (XEJ) (+0.1%) – just!) was Information Technology (XIJ) (-0.05%), but it was down fractionally, and much of this was due to a sharp fall in Life360 Inc. (ASX: 360) (-6.1%) which fell after announcing the details of its proposed Nasdaq IPO.

ChartWatch

Silver Futures COMEX

Big white candles are indicative of strong excess demand

The last time we covered silver was in ChartWatch in the Evening Wrap on 28 May.

Ironically, in that update it had also just printed a long white candle with a high close. Such candles are manifestations of strong excess demand.

After probing the major point of supply from the 20 May peak at 32.75, itself a probe of the (mega?) point of supply from the Feb 2021 peak at 32.76, we saw silver drop back to retest the well-defined demand zone between 29.29-30.19.

Yesterday’s (6 June) long white candle with high close similarly smacks of continuing demand-side control, and firms 29.29-30.19 as the key demand zone to watch.

Quite simply, as long as the silver price continues to close above 29.29, the short term uptrend is intact.

The last candle on the chart is today’s 7 June live candle. It’s looking good for now, but as candle analysis should only ever be conducted on a closed-candle basis – it must be discounted.

Still, even only considering the 6 June candle, the probability silver will again probe major supply is very high. This is despite less-than-ideal price action (falling peaks and falling troughs), which to be fair, is common beneath major points of supply of the magnitude of 32.76.

All roads lead there now. Silver must close above 32.76 to have a chance of really extending the prevailing short and long term uptrends.

If that occurs, there are few major points of supply until the October 2012 major peak at 40.88.

Uranium Futures NYMEX

Upside momentum appears to be fading for uranium

The last time we covered uranium was in ChartWatch in the Evening Wrap on 29 May.

I noted that things were no longer going to plan here for the bulls, with the development of falling peaks and falling troughs in the price action.

Falling peaks indicates building supply / supply reinforcement, while falling troughs indicates demand removal / retreating demand.

Add to this, the short term trend ribbon has switched to signal a downtrend.

Neither is symptomatic of a demand-side market, or more specifically the demand-side market that existed prior to the 93.75 peak, and that’s consistent with the still-prevailing long term uptrend.

The price action has now regressed into the all-important long term uptrend ribbon. It’s also creeping closer to the point of demand at 86.50.

If the uranium price closes below 86.50, it puts the transition to short term downtrend beyond all reasonable doubt. A subsequent close below 83.40 will similarly negate the long term uptrend.

Taking the bull view for a second. The long term uptrend is typically a zone of excess demand, and therefore a zone where rallies tend to occur from – just look at the rallies from 83.40 and 86.50.

Ideally, we see the price bounce (very soon) and return to rising peaks and rising troughs. Ultimately though, it will take a close above the point of supply at 93.75 to renew uranium’s unanimous bull case thesis.

Economy

Today

• There weren't any major economic data announcements in our time zone today.

Later this week:

Friday

• 22:30 USA Non-Farm Employment Change May (189,000 forecast vs 175,000 April)

• 22:30 USA Average Hourly Earnings May (+0.3% m/m forecast vs +0.2% m/m April)

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +16.1% 4DMEDICAL (4DX) - No news 🤔

• +9.3% Novonix (NVX) - Market Update

• +7.3% Resolute Mining (RSG) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈

• +6.0% 29METALS (29M) - No news 🤔

• +5.7% IDP Education (IEL) - Rebound after yesterday's plunge following Regulatory and Market Update

• +5.0% Duratec (DUR) - No news 🤔

• +4.8% Peninsula Energy (PEN) - No news 🤔

• +4.4% Northern Minerals (NTU) - Continued positive response to Tuesday's Cyber security breach, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend, long term downtrend is transitioning from down to up 🔎📈

• +4.4% Cettire (CTT) - No news 🤔

• +4.3% Melbana Energy (MAY) - SEAPEX Evening Talks

• +3.9% Boss Energy (BOE) - No news 🤔

• +3.6% Genesis Minerals (GMD) - No news, generally stronger ASX gold sector today on rising gold and silver prices, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈

• +3.5% Regis Resources (RRL) - No news, generally stronger ASX gold sector today on rising gold and silver prices

Trading lower

• -6.1% Life360 Inc. (360) - Proposed issue of securities - 360, closed below short term uptrend ribbon, price action now lower peaks and lower troughs 🔎📉

• -6.0% Nuix (NXL) - No news 🤔

• -4.1% Latin Resources (LRS) - No news, another tough day for the ASX lithium sector as lithium prices in China continue to decline

• -4.0% Wildcat Resources (WC8) - No news, another tough day for the ASX lithium sector as lithium prices in China continue to decline, fall is consistent with prevailing short term downtrend, long term uptrend is transitioning from up to down 🔎📈

• -3.3% Syrah Resources (SYR) - No news, likely dragged lower by lithium sector and more generally, negative sentiment towards battery materials stocks, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends 🔎📉

• -3.3% Red 5 (RED) - SLR: Scheme Becomes Effective

Broker Notes

• Boab Metals (BML)

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.44

• Beach Energy (BPT)

  • Downgraded to neutral from buy at Citi; Price Target: $1.60 from $1.70

• Charter Hall Group US Prohibited (CHC)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $15.54

• Coles Group (COL)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $17.50

• Endeavour Group (EDV)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.60

• Goodman Group (GMG)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $36.37

• HMC Capital (HMC)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $7.97

• Harvey Norman Holdings (HVN)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.30

• IDP Education (IEL)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $21.75 from $25.30

  • Retained at neutral at JP Morgan; Price Target: $16.00 from $17.60

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $16.00 from $22.00

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $16.10 from $17.65

• IGO (IGO)

  • Initiated at buy at Argonaut Securities; Price Target: $8.80

• Iluka Resources (ILU)

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $7.40 from $7.00

• Inghams Group (ING)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.20

• JB HI-FI (JBH)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $63.00

• Lendlease Group (LLC)

  • Downgraded to sell from neutral at UBS; Price Target: $5.56 from $7.10

• Latin Resources (LRS)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.40

• Mineral Resources (MIN)

  • Upgraded to buy from neutral at Bank of America; Price Target: $82.00 from $79.00

  • Downgraded to underperform from outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $75.00 from $76.50

  • Retained at sell at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $47.00

• Metcash (MTS)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.30

• Pro Medicus (PME)

  • Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $80.00

• Region Group (RGN)

  • Upgraded to overweight from equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $2.50 from $2.44

• Scentre Group (SCG)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.37

• Seek (SEK)

  • Retained at outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $26.00 from $28.00

  • Retained at positive at E&P; Price Target: $27.50 from $28.00

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $29.20

• Stockland (SGP)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $5.10 from $5.20

• Skycity Entertainment Group (SKC)

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: NZ$1.85 from NA$2.45

• SRG Global (SRG)

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $1.20

• Technology One (TNE)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $20.25 from $19.00

• Treasury Wine Estates (TWE)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $13.40

• Woolworths Group (WOW)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $35.00

Scans