Evening Wrap: ASX 200 closes in on 9,000 as NAB, Lithium stocks power gains, iron ore majors BHP, FMG, RIO slip

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 20.7 points higher, up 0.23%.

Another 41 points will do it. What do I mean? 🤷 Well, add that to today's ASX 200 close of 8959.3 and we'll be trading in a "new 1,000", the 9,000's 🏆.

FYI, the last time we crossed a new 1,000 barrier (i.e., into the 8,000's) was all the way back in July last year... So, can we do it? Looking at the charts... I'm confident... What about you!? 🤔

To make sense of all the above, I have detailed technical analysis on the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P/ASX 200 in today's ChartWatch.

Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 20.7 points higher at 8,959.3, 0.53% from its session low and just 0.04% from its high 🤏. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) advancers beat decliners by 145 to 125.

It was a bit of a mixed bag today. Sure, the benchmark notched a new gain, and as you'll see when you get to ChartWatch below, it did it in seemingly strong fashion. But the market breadth isn't knocking anyone's socks off, and looking within the sectors, there was a little push and pull.

For example, in Financials (XFJ) (+0.7%), ANZ Group (ANZ) (-1.5%) was a bit soggy but more than made up for by stablemates Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) (+1.2%), National Australia Bank (NAB) (+2.6%), and Westpac Banking Corp. (WBC) (+0.7%).

Then in Resources (XJR) (-0.7%), iron ore stocks BHP Group (BHP) (-1.2%), Fortescue (FMG) (-0.6%), and Rio Tinto (RIO) (-1.5%) sagged, but were made up for by the still-resurgent lithium sector – Pilbara Minerals (PLS) (+3.2%), Mineral Resources (MIN) (+1.3%), and Liontown Resources (LTR) (+6.5%) – knocking the socks off some... (FYI, benchmark lithium carbonate futures were up ~4% on GFEX today 🚀).

But that's the good thing about the Aussie stock market at the moment – it seems to be able to keep finding a path to a net-win 🏆.

Today's other winners were fairly widely spread, as can be seen in the below table, with Telecommunication Services (XTJ) (+1.4%) the best performing sector on the back of REA Group (REA) (+4.5%), Information Technology (XIJ) (+0.8%) supported by a rebound in Bravura Solution (BVS) (+7.5%), and Real Estate (XPJ) (+0.3%) kicked along by a nice gain in Lend Lease (LLC) (+6.7%).

Today's best blue chip gainers

Today's worst blue chip losers

ChartWatch

Nasdaq Composite Index

Nasdaq Composite Index chart (click here for full size image)

Blip.

For what it’s worth…another zebra candle…🦓 That’s 10 alternating candle body colours since August 1 – so really, we can say that August so far has been somewhat of a divisive affair ⬛⬜⬛⬜⬛⬜⬛⬜⬛⬜.

But look at the progress! It’s still pretty good. It means that despite that indecision, the underlying theme remains one of demand side control.

Friday’s blip, with its very modest black body, doesn’t change anything at all with respect to the broader technical picture, which remains one of total short and long term demand-side control.

We have formed 21805 as a new point of supply. Very mild, I expect (because the reaction from there has been very mild).

21458 is the closest point of demand (because it was a previous point of supply – once consumed, points of supply tend to act as future points of demand).

More important than 21458 is the dynamic demand of the short term uptrend ribbon. If we close below there (presently 20900-21200) I will grow substantially more concerned. Until then, the short term trend is intact and my view remains: Stay the course, FRP.

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

S&P/ASX 200 chart (click here for full size image)

As much as Friday’s candle on the Comp was a stay the course candle, so too is today’s showing on the XJO.

We can see a modest downward pointing shadow, a white body, and a close very near the high (8959.3 vs 8963).

The downward pointing shadow suggests there was some excess supply sloshing around the system in the morning. A few non-believers…perhaps responding to those losses in the USA, or simply bogged down with the “too expensive, it can’t go on” theme.

Either way, their supply didn’t last long, because the demand-side soon came in and hoovered it all up. The move down from the open, to the low when the supply-side was seemingly most in control, and back up to the opening price as the demand-side swept in – creates the downward pointing line, or the shadow as it its officially called, part of the candle.

That’s why we say that downward pointing shadows are a signal of demand-side control. It’s kinda really the only conclusion you can come up with when you think about it (you could say that candlestick analysis is rather “black and white”! 😁)

We also like high closes on our candles, because it shows that the demand-side control was exerted right into the close – little doubt, just give me more stock! And with the supply-side unwilling – or downright unable – to stop it.

But a candle is just a blip. It’s an insight into just one trading session. Anything can and probably will happen the next candle, and the next.

This is why we build up our demand-supply picture into many candles, and to incorporate price action (the relative positioning of peaks and troughs – or points of supply and points of demand – as I like to call them), plus our all-important trend ribbons. Think of it this way:

If candles are words, then price action is the sentences, my short term trend ribbon is the paragraphs, and my long term trend ribbon is the chapters… in an unending book of demand and supply that savvy investors can read and learn from each day.

Beautiful, isn’t it!? 🥰

The Golden Le Creuset deserves its stay the course / FRP designation until a close below the short term trend ribbon – presently 8725-90.

Economy

Today

• There weren't any major economic data releases in our time zone today

Later this week

Tuesday

• 10:30 AUS Westpac Consumer Sentiment

• 22:30 USA July Building Permits and Housing Starts

Wednesday

• 11:00 CHN 1-year & 5-year Prime Loan Rate

  • No change to either forecast (1-year 3.0% forecast and 5-year 3.5% forecast)

Thursday

• 04:00 July 29-30 FOMC meeting minutes

• 17:15 (from) EU Various July Flash Manufacturing and Services Sectors PMIs

• 23:45 USA July Flash Manufacturing and Services Sectors PMIs

Friday

• 00:00 USA Jackson Hole Symposium Day 1

Saturday

• 00:00 USA Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks at Jackson Hole Symposium Day 2

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +2900.0% Kaili Resources (KLR) – Response to ASX Price Query and Received Approval for REE Drilling in SA, FTI - that is not a misprint! 🤯

• +44.9% Apiam Animal Health (AHX) – Receipt of Non-Binding Indicative Proposal and Becoming a substantial holder.

• +34.5% Beacon Minerals (BCN) – Second Batch of Assay Results from Iguana Deposit, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈

• +25.3% Sunrise Energy Metals (SRL) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈

• +14.8% Weebit Nano (WBT) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and long term trend is transitioning from down to up, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +14.3% 4DS Memory (4DS) – Sixth Platform Lot Company Update and HGST Renews for 12th Consecutive YearN.

• +12.4% Metal Powder Works (MPW) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and rising peaks and rising troughs 🔎📈

• +11.7% Trigg Minerals (TMG) – Patent Claims Acquired Fast-Tracking Antimony Development, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +10.1% Servcorp (SRV) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +9.1% West Wits Mining (WWI) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +8.2% Clarity Pharmaceuticals (CU6) – No news, bounced perfectly from long term uptrend ribbon! 🔎📈

• +7.5% Bravura Solutions (BVS) – No news, bounced in the wake of the recent sharp selloff.

• +7.4% Sayona Mining (SYA) – No news, general strength across the broader Lithium sector today, benchmark GFEX lithium contract up ~4% today…

• +7.4% Alkane Resources (ALK) – Project Finance Facility Fully Repaid and Upcoming Guidance and Costerfield and Bjorkdal Clarification, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +6.7% Lendlease Group (LLC) – LLG 2025 Results Announcement, Presentation and Lendlease Group 2025 Annual Report.

• +6.5% Liontown Resources (LTR) – No news, general strength across the broader Lithium sector today.

• +5.6% MTM Critical Metals (MTM) – Texas Facility Update - Equipment Ordered, Feedstock Secured.

• +5.6% Falcon Metals (FAL) – Mount Burgess Acquires High-Grade Gold Projects in W.A., rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +5.3% Dateline Resources (DTR) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +4.5% REA Group (REA) – Cameron McIntyre appointed CEO of REA Group, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

Trading lower

• -20.8% Audinate Group (AD8) – FY25 Investor Presentation, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, one of the most Featured (highest conviction) stocks in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -14.1% DigiCo REIT (DGT) – FY25 Results Presentation, fall is consistent with prevailing short term downtrend and falling peaks and falling troughs, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -11.1% Aml3d (AL3) – 2025 Annual Report to shareholders.

• -10.2% OOH!Media (OML) – 2025 Half Year Results Presentation.

• -9.1% Lumos Diagnostics (LDX) – Lumos Announces FebriDx CLIA Waiver Application Submission.

• -8.9% Avita Medical (AVH) – No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

Broker Moves

The a2 Milk Company (A2M)

• Retained at Neutral at Citi; Price Target: $8.20

• Retained at Neutral at Citi; Price Target: $8.20

Amcor Plc (AMC)

• Retained at Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $17.46 from $18.14

• Retained at Accumulate at Morgans; Price Target: $15.20 from $16.00

• Retained at Accumulate at Morgans; Price Target: $15.20 from $16.00

• Retained at Hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $14.20 from $14.50

ANZ Group Holdings (ANZ)

• Retained at Neutral at Citi; Price Target: $29.50

ASX (ASX)

• Upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Bank of America; Price Target: $69.50 from $73.00

• Upgraded to Hold from Lighten at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $67.40 from $60.70

AUB Group (AUB)

• Retained at Overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $38.70 from $36.40

• Retained at Overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $38.70 from $36.40

• Retained at Overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $36.40 from $38.70

Aurizon Holdings (AZJ)

• Retained at Neutral at Citi; Price Target: $3.25

• Retained at Neutral at Citi; Price Target: $3.25

Baby Bunting Group (BBN)

• Retained at Buy at Citi; Price Target: $3.04 from $2.41

• Retained at Neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.50 from $1.85

• Retained at Overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $3.00 from $2.20

• Retained at Overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $2.20

• Downgraded to Trim from Hold at Morgans; Price Target: $2.50 from $1.80

• Downgraded to Trim from Hold at Morgans; Price Target: $2.50 from $1.80

• Retained at Buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $3.00 from $2.15

CAR Group (CAR)

• Retained at Overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $43.00 from $42.50

Collins Foods (CKF)

• Retained at Overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $10.60 from $13.00

Centuria Office REIT (COF)

• Retained at Sell at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.10

• Retained at Underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $1.25 from $1.23

• Retained at Neutral at UBS; Price Target: $1.20

Cochlear (COH)

• Retained at Buy at Citi; Price Target: $350.00 from $300.00

• Downgraded to Hold from Outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $310.00 from $290.00

• Retained at Neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $295.90 from $270.50

• Retained at Underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $274.00

• Retained at Hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $295.00

• Retained at Buy at UBS; Price Target: $350.00 from $325.00

Digico Infrastructure REIT (DGT)

• Retained at Buy at UBS; Price Target: $5.60

Domino's Pizza Enterprises (DMP)

• Retained at Equal weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $24.00

• Retained at Buy at UBS; Price Target: $22.00

Evolution Mining (EVN)

• Retained at Sell at UBS; Price Target: $7.40 from $6.60

Gemlife Communities Group (GLF)

• Initiated at Overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $5.35

Genesis Minerals (GMD)

• Retained at Buy at UBS; Price Target: $5.80 from $5.20

Gold Road Resources (GOR)

• Retained at Neutral at UBS; Price Target: $3.25

GPT Group (GPT)

• Retained at Neutral at UBS; Price Target: $5.40

GQG Partners Inc. (GQG)

• Retained at Buy at UBS; Price Target: $2.35

Green Technology Metals (GT1)

• Downgraded to Hold from Buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.04 from $0.14

Guzman Y Gomez (GYG)

• Retained at Overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $41.90

• Retained at Neutral at UBS; Price Target: $31.00

HealthCo Healthcare and Wellness REIT (HCW)

• Retained at Buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.00 from $1.15

• Downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.78 from $0.91

• Retained at Underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $0.89

HUB24 (HUB)

• Retained at Buy at UBS; Price Target: $105.00

Insurance Australia Group (IAG)

• Retained at Buy at UBS; Price Target: $9.60 from $9.50

IGO (IGO)

• Retained at Overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $4.86 from $5.34

JB Hi-Fi (JBH)

• Retained at Underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $83.40

Laramide Resources (LAM)

• Retained at Speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $1.30 from $1.25

Lovisa Holdings (LOV)

• Retained at Neutral at UBS; Price Target: $30.00

Liontown Resources (LTR)

• Retained at Buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.15 from $1.05

Mirvac Group (MGR)

• Retained at Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.48 from $2.38

• Retained at Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.48 from $2.38

• Retained at Equal weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $2.45

• Retained at Hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $2.20 from $2.15

• Retained at Neutral at UBS; Price Target: $2.31 from $2.32

Medibank Private (MPL)

• Retained at Neutral at UBS; Price Target: $5.45

National Australia Bank (NAB)

• Retained at Neutral at UBS; Price Target: $37.50

NIB Holdings (NHF)

• Retained at Buy at UBS; Price Target: $7.85

Northern Star Resources (NST)

• Retained at Neutral at UBS; Price Target: $19.95 from $16.65

Netwealth Group (NWL)

• Retained at Neutral at UBS; Price Target: $35.00

Oohmedia (OML)

• Retained at Buy at UBS; Price Target: $2.00

Origin Energy (ORG)

• Retained at Underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $11.11 from $9.80

• Retained at Hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $12.00

• Retained at Buy at UBS; Price Target: $13.70 from $11.70

Pilbara Minerals (PLS)

• Retained at Overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $2.00

Perseus Mining (PRU)

• Retained at Buy at UBS; Price Target: $4.85 from $4.15

QBE Insurance Group (QBE)

• Retained at Overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $25.00 from $24.80

• Retained at Buy at UBS; Price Target: $25.00

Regis Resources (RRL)

• Retained at Neutral at UBS; Price Target: $4.60

Reliance Worldwide Corporation (RWC)

• Retained at Buy at Citi; Price Target: $5.25

Steadfast Group (SDF)

• Retained at Overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $6.84 from $6.71

• Retained at Overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $6.71 from $6.84

Sigma Healthcare (SIG)

• Retained at Overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $3.30

Strickland Metals (STK)

• Retained at Speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.43 from $0.42

Suncorp Group (SUN)

• Retained at Buy at Bank of America; Price Target: $23.00 from $21.70

• Retained at Hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $22.50 from $22.00

Sayona Mining (SYA)

• Retained at Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.03 from $0.02

Turaco Gold (TCG)

• Initiated at Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.80

Temple & Webster Group (TPW)

• Retained at Hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $28.00 from $22.00

Trajan Group Holdings (TRJ)

• Retained at Buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.45 from $1.50

Universal Store Holdings (UNI)

• Retained at Buy at UBS; Price Target: $10.30

Vault Minerals (VAU)

• Retained at Buy at UBS; Price Target: $0.60 from $0.55

Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC)

• Retained at Sell at Citi; Price Target: $29.75 from $28.50

Xero (XRO)

• Retained at Overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $235.00

Scans