Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to fall, S&P 500 slips but Dow nears all-time high + A2 Milk,

ASX 200 futures are down 53pts (-0.59%) as of 8:30 am AEST.

In a nutshell:

• S&P 500 and Nasdaq slipped, while the Dow finished higher and briefly pushed into record territory

• Goldman Sachs, BofA both suggest US stock market is set for a pullback amid rising complacency and potential dovish signals from Fed at Jackson Hole

• Massive day for earnings, including numbers from A2 Milk, Bluescope, GPT Group and more

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 lower, closed near worst levels (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks mostly lower, closed near worst levels

• A relatively uneventful session, with markets edging lower on solid retail sales data but hotter one-year inflation expectations, also a few high-profile earnings disappoints, weaker China economic data and Trump-Putin summit over the weekend

• US weekly recap: Russell 2000 (+3.07%), Dow (+1.74%), S&P 500 (+0.940%), Nasdaq (+0.81%)

• Investors show defensive signals by trimming winners, buying bonds amid fears of market complacency (BBG)

• Hedge funds lift stakes in megacap tech like Microsoft and Netflix (BBG)

• Tech IPO optimism surges as Nasdaq hits record highs, fueled by tariff stabilisation (CNBC)

• UK and EU IPO markets struggle, while US and Hong Kong see growth (WSJ)

• Foreign US Treasury exposure hits record high in June despite dollar slump (BBG)

• EM funds pivot to AI stocks, predicting years of booming tech spending (BBG)

• Traders position for Trump-Putin meeting, investing in assets that may benefit from ceasefire (BBG)

• BofA's Hartnett says US stock rally sets stage for profit-taking amid potential dovish signals from Fed at Jackson Hole (BBG)

• Market rally stalls amid hot US inflation data but investors remain optimistic about consumer resilience and profits (AX)

• Goldman Sachs warns US stock market's hot streak may end, citing increased drop risk signals (BI)

• US IPO activity has doubled this month with 12 new issues raising US$2.9bn (YF)

STOCKS

• Applied Materials guidance misses estimates amid soft China demand, tech export approval delays (BBG)

• Oracle and Alphabet hit deal offering Gemini AI models in Oracle's cloud computing services and applications (RT)

• Berkshire continues selling Apple, T-Mobile and BofA, acquired stake in UnitedHealth (BBG)

TARIFFS

• Trump holds off on China tariff threat over purchases of Russian oil, cites progress with Putin after Alaska summit (BBG)

• Trump's exemption for Apple from semiconductor tariffs boosts investor confidence, but many companies remain vulnerable (FT)

• China warns foreign companies against hoarding rare earths, citing potential supply restrictions amid rising demand (FT)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Powell to unveil new Fed policy framework, hints on rates at Jackson Hole (BBG)

• Fed's Daly eyes two possible rate cuts this year amid mixed economic signals (RT)

• Fed's Musalem said it's too early for him to decide on September rate cut (BBG)

• RBNZ to lower rates by 25 bps at Thursday’s meeting with inflation and labor market subdued (RT)

ECONOMY

• US July retail sales climb 0.5% m/m, in-line with market expectations (BBG)

• China July economic activity declines, with factory activity, investment and retail sales disappointing (BBG)

• China's new home prices slump 0.3% in July (RT)

ASX TODAY

It’s a massive day for earnings, and we’ll be covering all the key results as they drop. Follow our Live Blog for the latest company announcements, consensus numbers, market moves, and economic updates.

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Defensive shift: The Dow briefly rallied into record territory overnight, as four US sectors managed to finish higher (Healthcare, Real Estate, Communication Services and Staples).

• Healthcare momentum: The healthcare sector has been running hot due to its relative undervaluation to the rest of the market. The S&P 500 Healthcare sector rallied 1.65% and Biotech ETF up 1.24% overnight to the highest since Feb-25. ASX 200 Healthcare Index also trading at similar levels.

BROKER MOVES

• Gemlife initiated Overweight with $5.35 target (MS)

• Mirvac upgraded to Buy from Neutral; target up to $2.60 from $2.30 (CITI)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Mon 18 Aug: Platinum Asia Investments (PAI) – $0.199

• Tue 19 Aug: Bravura Solutions (BVS) – $0.047, Computershare (CPU) – $0.48, QBE Insurance Group (QBE) – $0.31, Sandon Capital Investments (SNC) – $0.014

• Wed 20 Aug: Ryder Capital (RYD) – $0.055

• Thu 21 Aug: AMP (AMP) – $0.02, AGL Energy (AGL) – $0.25, Brickworks (BKW) – $0.484, Insurance Australia Group (IAG) – $0.19, JB Hi-Fi (JBH) – $2.05, Washington H Soul Pattinson & Co (SOL) – $0.59

• Fri 22 Aug: Iress (IRE) – $0.11

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: None

• Earnings: A2 Milk (A2M), Audinate (AD8), Ampol (ALD), Aurizon (AZJ), Bluescope Steel (BSL), Charter Hall Retail REIT (CQR), Fiducian Group (FID), GPT Group (GPT), Lendlease (LLC), NAB (NAB), Navigator Global (NGI), Ooh!Media (OML), Stanmore Resources (SMR)

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEST):

No major economic announcements.