The ASX 200 snapped a four-day losing streak as a pullback in crude oil — its largest daily decline in more than a week — released pressure on benchmark bond yields and allowed gold miners and base metals stocks to recover. Elsewhere, uranium stocks surged on a finalised Australia-India export agreement, but healthcare sagged.
Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap. Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P/ASX 200 in today's ChartWatch.
Let’s dive in!
Today in Review
Name | Value | % Chg |
|---|---|---|
Major Indices | ||
| ASX 200 | 8,806.0 | +0.50% |
| All Ords | 9,003.7 | +0.47% |
| Small Ords | 3,392.7 | +0.70% |
| All Tech | 3,030.7 | -0.63% |
| Emerging Companies | 2,938.3 | +0.95% |
Currency | ||
| AUD/USD | 0.6949 | +0.12% |
US Futures | ||
| S&P 500 | 7,574.0 | -0.19% |
| Dow Jones | 52,772.0 | +0.02% |
| Nasdaq | 29,823.75 | -0.38% |
Name | Value | % Chg |
|---|---|---|
Sector | ||
| Materials | 22,997.4 | +2.32% |
| Real Estate | 3,587.1 | +0.58% |
| Financials | 9,586.8 | +0.55% |
| Energy | 9,824.2 | -0.22% |
| Utilities | 9,400.8 | -0.33% |
| Industrials | 8,350.0 | -0.40% |
| Consumer Staples | 13,251.7 | -0.50% |
| Information Technology | 1,810.7 | -0.60% |
| Communication Services | 1,597.6 | -0.83% |
| Consumer Discretionary | 3,952.0 | -1.13% |
| Health Care | 26,806.3 | -1.97% |
ASX 200 Intraday Chart
%20intraday%20chart_10%20Jul.png)
Markets
The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 43.5 points higher at 8,806.0, 0.66% from its session low and 0.18% from its high. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) advancers beat decliners by 157 to 119.
For the week, the XJO finished down 38.4 points or 0.43% lower, 1.5% from its intraweek low and just 0.6% from its intraweek high.
The Gold Sub-Index (XGD) (+2.6%) snapped back sharply as ICE Brent crude futures fell 2.2% overnight, reversing the bond yield pressure that had hammered precious metals through the week — lower oil eases inflation expectations, which reduces yields, which in turn lowers the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold. COMEX gold futures rose 1.4% overnight before easing 0.4% to US$4,124/oz in Asian trade, while COMEX silver futures surged 3.8% overnight before easing 0.3% to US$60.57/oz.
It is a well-worn script — oil down, gold and mining up — and investors are growing weary of the relationship's predictability, but it continues to drive sector flows with mechanical precision. Black Cat Syndicate (BC8) (+5.6%), Resolute Mining (RSG) (+5.6%), Pantoro Gold (PNR) (+5.3%), and Evolution Mining (EVN) (+3.4%) all recovered ground.
S&P-ASX 200 Materials Sector Index intraday chart
Materials (XMJ) (+2.3%) was the other major beneficiary of the crude oil pullback, with strong gains in the copper price overnight underpinning the rally. COMEX copper futures rose 2.7% Thursday before adding a further 0.3% to US$6.283/lb in Asian trade today, while SGX iron ore futures edged up 0.5% to US$99.20/t.
Capstone Copper (CSC) (+6.4%) led, with South32 (S32) (+5.2%) — which received a Morgans upgrade to Accumulate — Rio Tinto (RIO) (+3.8%), Sandfire Resources (SFR) (+3.7%), and BHP (BHP) (+2.5%) all advancing.
Real Estate (XPJ) (+0.6%) was the other notable winner as the Australian 10-year government bond yield fell 4.7 basis points — when yields retreat, the stable income streams of property trusts become comparatively more attractive. Charter Hall (CHC) (+2.2%), GPT Group (GPT) (+1.0%), and Stockland (SGP) (+1.0%) all firmed.
S&P-ASX 200 Financials Sector Index intraday chart
Financials (XFJ) (+0.5%) also caught the lower-yield tailwind, with a late buying order in the closing price auction — estimated to have added approximately 0.2% to the sector in the final moments of trade — lifting the sector and, through its enormous index weight, the benchmark itself by a similar amount. Zip Co (ZIP) (+2.0%), Westpac (WBC) (+0.9%), National Australia Bank (NAB) (+0.8%), ANZ (ANZ) (+0.8%), and Commonwealth Bank (CBA) (+0.5%) all gained.
Health Care (XHJ) (-2.0%) was the session's sharpest loser as the week's defensive rotation reversed with equal speed — the sector had risen 13.7% over the past month prior to today, and possibly some investors decided now was the right time to crystallise some of those gains. Pro Medicus (PME) (-6.3%) fell following its 33% gain over the past month. Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX) (-4.0%), Ramsay Health Care (RHC) (-2.3%), and CSL (CSL) (-2.1%) were also lower.
%20chart_10%20Jul.png)
Pro Medicus (ASX-PME) chart
Consumer Staples (XSJ) (-0.5%) gave back some of the week's defensive gains for the same reason as healthcare — after several sessions of strong buying, capital rotated out as risk appetite improved. Woolworths (WOW) (-0.7%) and Coles (COL) (-0.5%) both eased.
Energy (XEJ) (-0.2%) was the session's most resilient loser — falling oil would ordinarily weigh more heavily on energy producers, but the week's strong gains appear to have given the sector a degree of buffer. Yancoal Australia (YAL) (-1.4%) and Woodside Energy (WDS) (-0.9%) were softer, while Santos (STO) (-0.4%) barely moved.
Cushioning the blow for the Energy sector, Uranium stocks roared higher. It appeared to be a combination of short-covering and genuine new buying following the finalisation of an Australia-India uranium export agreement that opens a significant long-term supply channel. Against this win, overnight leads were scant, with the benchmark COMEX uranium futures contract flat, but the Sprott Uranium Miners ETF (NYSE: URNM) up 1.7%.
Silex Systems (SLX) (+9.4%), Deep Yellow (DYL) (+7.4%), Bannerman Energy (BMN) (+7.3%), Boss Energy (BOE) (+6.7%), Paladin Energy (PDN) (+4.1%), and NexGen Energy (NXG) (+3.9%) all surged.
Today's best ASX Top 300 gainers
Company | Last Price | Change $ | Change % | 1mo % | 1yr % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bravura Solutions (BVS) | $2.36 | +$0.31 | +15.1% | +6.3% | +11.3% |
| Silex Systems (SLX) | $5.70 | +$0.49 | +9.4% | -1.6% | +43.6% |
| Metals X (MLX) | $1.40 | +$0.10 | +7.7% | -7.6% | +127.6% |
| Deep Yellow (DYL) | $1.445 | +$0.10 | +7.4% | -0.7% | -10.5% |
| Weebit Nano (WBT) | $7.83 | +$0.52 | +7.1% | +8.3% | +350.0% |
| Mesoblast (MSB) | $2.24 | +$0.14 | +6.7% | +9.8% | +36.2% |
| Capstone Copper Corp. (CSC) | $13.04 | +$0.79 | +6.4% | -6.7% | +42.5% |
| Resolute Mining (RSG) | $0.95 | +$0.05 | +5.6% | -11.6% | +45.0% |
| South32 (S32) | $4.02 | +$0.20 | +5.2% | -11.3% | +32.2% |
| Ora Banda Mining (OBM) | $1.12 | +$0.055 | +5.2% | -7.4% | +54.5% |
| WIA Gold (WIA) | $0.535 | +$0.025 | +4.9% | +20.2% | +109.8% |
| Develop Global (DVP) | $6.03 | +$0.27 | +4.7% | -5.6% | +25.9% |
| West African Resources (WAF) | $2.85 | +$0.12 | +4.4% | -5.0% | +22.8% |
| Kingsgate Consolidated (KCN) | $4.99 | +$0.21 | +4.4% | +1.8% | +99.6% |
| IperionX (IPX) | $3.59 | +$0.15 | +4.4% | -31.5% | -16.7% |
| Paladin Energy (PDN) | $10.06 | +$0.40 | +4.1% | -0.2% | +44.5% |
| Zimplats Holdings (ZIM) | $13.35 | +$0.53 | +4.1% | -15.3% | -11.5% |
| Macmahon Holdings (MAH) | $0.905 | +$0.035 | +4.0% | -2.7% | +206.8% |
| Catalyst Metals (CYL) | $5.76 | +$0.22 | +4.0% | +17.8% | +10.8% |
| NexGen Energy (Canada) (NXG) | $13.83 | +$0.52 | +3.9% | -7.5% | +43.2% |
Today's worst ASX Top 300 losers
Company | Last Price | Change $ | Change % | 1mo % | 1yr % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pro Medicus (PME) | $197.07 | -$13.35 | -6.3% | +18.9% | -38.0% |
| Electro Optic Systems Holdings (EOS) | $8.41 | -$0.56 | -6.2% | -21.3% | +190.0% |
| Liberty Financial Group (LFG) | $3.25 | -$0.21 | -6.1% | +3.2% | -11.2% |
| Austal (ASB) | $3.72 | -$0.21 | -5.3% | -7.2% | -36.4% |
| SiteMinder (SDR) | $3.72 | -$0.17 | -4.4% | +2.2% | -16.2% |
| Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX) | $16.27 | -$0.67 | -4.0% | +21.5% | -33.5% |
| Elsight (ELS) | $7.74 | -$0.29 | -3.6% | -3.1% | +421.2% |
| Lindian Resources (LIN) | $0.815 | -$0.03 | -3.5% | +1.9% | +785.9% |
| Karoon Energy (KAR) | $1.415 | -$0.05 | -3.4% | -27.6% | -23.9% |
| Nanosonics (NAN) | $3.24 | -$0.11 | -3.3% | -1.8% | -18.0% |
| Aura Consolidated Group, Inc. (AXQ) | $6.66 | -$0.19 | -2.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Codan (CDA) | $43.30 | -$1.19 | -2.7% | -1.3% | +130.7% |
| Cobram Estate Olives (CBO) | $3.65 | -$0.10 | -2.7% | -8.1% | +52.1% |
| Brambles (BXB) | $18.74 | -$0.51 | -2.6% | +7.0% | -20.2% |
| Centuria Capital Group (CNI) | $1.75 | -$0.045 | -2.5% | -12.6% | -1.1% |
| 4DMedical (4DX) | $3.96 | -$0.10 | -2.5% | -1.2% | +1585.1% |
| Reliance Worldwide Corporation (RWC) | $3.67 | -$0.09 | -2.4% | +11.9% | -12.4% |
| BCI Minerals (BCI) | $0.41 | -$0.01 | -2.4% | +15.5% | +17.1% |
| EVT (EVT) | $12.47 | -$0.30 | -2.3% | +1.8% | -23.5% |
| Ramsay Health Care (RHC) | $41.95 | -$0.99 | -2.3% | +11.5% | +10.6% |
Chartwatch
Nasdaq Composite Index
Nasdaq Composite Index chart
Analysis
Solid. Very solid.
Comp
Comp + Bull Market
Comp + Bull Market + Summer
Anything can happen when you put those three things together!
Top candle Thursday = 💪
But you might think: Volume = 👎
Hey, don't overanalyse!
Sure that book you read, "The Secrets of Technical Analysis — Stuff that Nobody Except Me Knew Before I Wrote this Book" said something like:
"A sustainable rally in price should be accompanied by large and increasing volume... increasing volume means more investors are buying the stock..."
Seriously? Do the people that write this stuff even sit down and think about markets for five minutes? 🤦
Because if they did, they'd realise that as a trader, you want nothing more than your stock to be rising (I could just leave it there!) — on as low volume as possible.
Yep, there's the 🤯 moment. The technical analysis book's "secret" is WRONG!
Think of volume as agreement and disagreement all at the same time. To create volume, two parties must agree on one thing: PRICE.
However, for a transaction to occur, by definition, they must disagree on OUTCOME. The buyer thinks the price is going up... the seller... well they could be selling for any number of reasons — but it's generally safe to say: they've found SOMETHING BETTER to do with their cash.
I'm not even going to finish this thought.
Not because it's Friday evening and its getting close to beer o'clock (actually Mrs. ChartWatch and I are going out to dinner to celebrate the 25th anniversary of our fateful meet! Awwwww!)
But because I want YOU to THINK about it for five minutes.
Go on, dust off the old grey matter made lazy by AI: And think! (No, don't start typing it into AI! 🤦)
I typed "A sustainable rally in price should be accompanied by large and increasing volume... increasing volume means more investors are buying the stock..." into Google and its AI search gave me this! Oh my... No wonder investors are so confused! 🤦
View
I am at 1/2RP on my US portfolio (RP = Risk Position — it reflects my personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in US stocks. So 1/2RP is 50%, 2/3RP is 67% and FRP is 100% 🪣).
Key Levels
Dead simple! 26789-27191 is the key zone of supply vs 24980-25015 is the key zone of demand. In between = 1/2RP vs >= FRP and <= 1/3RP.
S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)
%20chart_10%20Jul.png)
S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) chart
Analysis
Yep, also pretty solid here. Still a bit juiced by the banks... But does it matter? 🤷
Up is up.
And yet, at the same time: sideways is still sideways!
As noted here in the last two updates, there remains some BTD activity around. It's enough to prevent the 8708-8656 demand zone and the long term trend from being breached, but so far, there's been little follow through.
Little FOMO, little HOFU.
And those two investor states are required to break this funk that the OTP finds itself in.
Some promising signs this week, let's see what next week brings (hopefully those zebras hurry up and migrate!)
Move on! 🦓 Source: https://store.artwolfe.com/
View
I'm 1/2RP on my Aussie portfolio ⚖️ (i.e., my personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in Australian stocks is 50%).
Key Levels
8984-9022 is the key zone of supply, while demand is at 8708-8656 (now more than ever!).
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Economy
Today
There weren't any major economic data releases in our time zone today...
Later this week
Saturday
TBC USA Fed Monetary Policy Report & Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh Senate address
Interesting Movers
Trading higher
- Bravura Solutions (BVS) $2.36+15.1%
Rose after it announced it now expects cash earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation of about $77 million, up from previous guidance of $69 million to $73 million. Revenue is expected to remain within its guided range of between $280 million and $285 million.
- Silex Systems (SLX) $5.70+9.4%
Rose on no news, general strength across the broader uranium sector today on the back of the finalised Australia-India export agreement.
- Metals X (MLX) $1.40+7.7%
Rose on no news, general strength across the base metals sector today; tin price up 2.1% on London Metals Exchange overnight.
- Deep Yellow (DYL) $1.45+7.4%
Rose on no news, general strength across the broader uranium sector today on the back of the finalised Australia-India export agreement.
- Bannerman Energy (BMN) $3.55+7.3%
Rose on no news, general strength across the broader uranium sector today on the back of the finalised Australia-India export agreement.
- Weebit Nano (WBT) $7.83+7.1%
Rose on no news; tends to follow US AI chip and infrastructure stocks which were sharply higher overnight.
- Boss Energy (BOE) $1.35+6.7%
Rose on no news, general strength across the broader uranium sector today on the back of the finalised Australia-India export agreement.
- Capstone Copper Corp. (CSC) $13.04+6.5%
Rose on no news, general strength across the base metals sector today; copper price up 2.7% on COMEX overnight and stronger in Asian trade today.
- South32 (S32) $4.02+5.2%
Rose on no news, general strength across the base metals sector today.
- Sandfire Resources (SFR) $18.83+3.8%
Rose on no news; general strength across the base metals sector today; copper price up 2.7% on COMEX overnight and stronger in Asian trade today.
Trading Lower
- Pro Medicus (PME) $197.07-6.3%
Fell on no news, victim of the rotation back into mining stocks; healthcare and other defensives had caught flows from falling mining stocks, those flows reversed course today.
- Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX) $16.27-4.0%
Fell on no news, victim of the rotation back into mining stocks; fell in line with the broader weakness in the healthcare sector today.
- Karoon Energy (KAR) $1.42-3.4%
Fell after it released a statement noting that the Brazilian Government has announced a 60 day extension of the 12% temporary tax on crude oil exports. Additionally, it was also likely impacted by the general weakness across the broader energy sector today as prices of energy commodities pulled back from recent gains.
- Ramsay Health Care (RHC) $41.95-2.3%
Fell on no news, victim of the rotation back into mining stocks; fell in line with the broader weakness in the healthcare sector today.
- CSL (CSL) $122.89-2.1%
Fell on no news, victim of the rotation back into mining stocks; fell in line with the broader weakness in the healthcare sector today.
- Elevra Lithium (ELV) $8.86-1.9%
Fell after it announced June 2026 quarter production and sales; North American Lithium operation produced ~54,479 dry metric tonnes of spodumene concentrate and recorded sales of ~33,977 dmt – a 15% increase from the March 2026 quarter and the second highest quarterly production achieved by NAL to date.
- Wisetech Global (WTC) $34.00-1.8%
Fell after it announced DSV’s CargoWise transaction volumes had increased about 20% over the past six months following the integration of DB Schenker, with user numbers up about 3%; management said DSV remains committed to CargoWise with the pair locked into a contract until September 2028.
- Cochlear (COH) $121.62-1.7%
Fell on no news, victim of the rotation back into mining stocks; fell in line with the broader weakness in the healthcare sector today.
Broker Moves
Company | Broker | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
29M29Metals | Morgans | Retained | Hold | $0.27 |
ADHAdairs | Morgans | Downgraded | Accumulate(from Buy) | $1.70 |
AISAeris Resources | Morgans | Retained | Buy | $0.53(from $0.70) |
AOVAmotiv | UBS | Retained | Buy | $9.80(from $11.40) |
APEEagers Automotive | UBS | Retained | Neutral | $22.95 |
ASGAutosports Group | UBS | Retained | Buy | $2.90 |
BHPBHP Group | Morgans | Retained | Hold | $59.80(from $54.90) |
CBOCobram Estate Olives | Ord Minnett | Retained | Accumulate | $3.77(from $3.78) |
COGCOG Financial Services | Shaw and Partners | Retained | Buy | $2.30(from $2.45) |
CPUComputershare | UBS | Retained | Neutral | $39.70(from $33.00) |
CSCCapstone Copper Corp. | Morgans | Retained | Buy | $18.00(from $15.70) |
CVVCaravel Minerals | Shaw and Partners | Initiated | Buy | $1.15 |
CWPCedar Woods Properties | Shaw and Partners | Retained | Buy | $9.55 |
EVNEvolution Mining | Morgans | Retained | Buy | $16.00(from $15.00) |
EVTEVT | Jarden | Downgraded | Overweight(from Buy) | $14.80(from $16.62) |
JINJumbo Interactive | Bell Potter | Retained | Hold | $7.20(from $7.10) |
| E&P | Downgraded | Neutral(from Positive) | $8.18(from $14.00) | |
| Jarden | Retained | Overweight | $10.80(from $10.50) | |
| Macquarie | Retained | Outperform | $9.50(from $10.50) | |
| Ord Minnett | Retained | Buy | $6.90(from $9.20) | |
MEIMeteoric Resources | Argonaut Securities | Retained | Speculative Buy | $0.45 |
| Macquarie | Retained | Outperform | $0.45 | |
MI6Minerals 260 | Morgans | Retained | Buy | $1.38(from $1.40) |
PC2PC Gold | Canaccord Genuity | Initiated | Speculative Buy | $2.15 |
PNRPantoro Gold | Argonaut Securities | Retained | Buy | $2.90(from $6.10) |
| Canaccord Genuity | Retained | Speculative Buy | $4.20(from $4.50) | |
| Goldman Sachs | Retained | Buy | $3.35(from $3.60) | |
| UBS | Retained | Buy | $3.60(from $5.10) | |
RIORio Tinto | Morgans | Retained | Hold | $165.00 |
SFRSandfire Resources | Citi | Retained | Neutral | $12.20 |
| Morgans | Retained | Buy | $22.00(from $20.40) | |
SK1Skinkandy | Jarden | Initiated | Overweight | $2.90 |
SLXSilex Systems | Shaw and Partners | Retained | Buy | $12.80 |
TLCThe Lottery Corporation | Macquarie | Retained | Outperform | $6.00 |
| Ord Minnett | Retained | Buy | $6.60(from $6.50) | |
TLSTelstra Group | Macquarie | Retained | Neutral | $5.57 |
TPGTPG Telecom | Macquarie | Retained | Outperform | $4.10 |
WTCWisetech Global | Citi | Retained | Buy | $55.05(from $52.00) |
ZIPZip Co | UBS | Retained | Buy | $4.10(from $3.10) |
Scans
Top Gainers
Code | Company | Last | % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|
| TAT | Tartana Minerals Ltd | $0.03 | +87.50% |
| CTO | Citigold Corporation Ltd | $0.013 | +44.44% |
| CXU | Cauldron Energy Ltd | $0.115 | +27.78% |
| PIQ | Proteomics International Laboratories Ltd | $0.205 | +20.59% |
| CLU | Cluey Ltd | $0.012 | +20.00% |
Top Fallers
Code | Company | Last | % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|
| AIV | Activex Ltd | $0.017 | -29.17% |
| PSL | Paterson Resources Ltd | $0.029 | -21.62% |
| KLV | Klevo Rewards Ltd | $0.046 | -17.86% |
| IME | Imexhs Ltd | $0.285 | -17.39% |
| GCMDA | GCM Corporation Ltd | $0.125 | -16.67% |
52 Week Highs
Code | Company | Last | % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|
| CCE | Carnegie Clean Energy Ltd | $0.23 | +12.20% |
| DSM | Desert Minerals Ltd | $0.775 | +5.44% |
| OIL | Optiscan Imaging Ltd | $0.155 | +3.33% |
| RMI | Resource Minerals International Ltd | $0.165 | +3.13% |
| GLS | L1 Global Long Short Fund Ltd | $2.08 | +2.97% |
52 Week Lows
Code | Company | Last | % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|
| GCMDA | GCM Corporation Ltd | $0.125 | -16.67% |
| N1H | N1 Holdings Ltd | $0.08 | -11.11% |
| CYV | Ceryvyn Therapeutics Ltd | $0.012 | -7.69% |
| REM | Remsense Technologies Ltd | $0.025 | -7.41% |
| AEI | Aeris Environmental Ltd | $0.03 | -6.25% |
Near Highs
Code | Company | Last | % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|
| MYE | Mastermyne Group Ltd | $0.36 | +2.86% |
| HGBL | Betashares Global Shares Currency Hedged ETF | $84.89 | +0.41% |
| MQGPG | Macquarie Group Ltd | $104.00 | -0.02% |
| DGVA | Dimensional Global Value Trust - Active ETF | $30.10 | 0.00% |
| WDMF | iShares World Equity Factor ETF | $54.68 | +0.31% |
Relative Strength Index (RSI) Oversold
Code | Company | Last | % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|
| MSTR | Morningstar International Shares Active ETF | $8.40 | +1.82% |
| MCCL | Munro Climate Change Leaders Fund Active ETF | $18.37 | +0.11% |
| IPG | Ipd Group Ltd | $4.90 | -1.01% |
| MAET | Munro Global Growth Fund Complex ETF | $5.62 | +0.36% |
| FUTR | Janus Henderson Global Sustainable EQ Active ETF | $35.86 | -0.14% |
