ASX 200 Live Today - Wednesday, 22nd July

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Wednesday, July 22. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Let us know how we can make it even better.

Paladin Energy Q4 uranium production beats estimates as Langer Heinrich ramp-up completes

[9:26 am] Paladin Energy reported Q4 uranium production ahead of market expectations, with FY26 output at the upper end of guidance following the completed Langer Heinrich ramp-up.

• Q4 uranium produced of 1.23Mlb vs 1.19Mlb ests (3% beat), with FY26 production of 4.82Mlb topping guidance of 4.5-4.8Mlb

• Q4 uranium sold of 1.35Mlb vs 1.28Mlb ests (5% beat), with FY26 sales of 4.35Mlb above 3.8-4.2Mlb guidance

• Q4 average selling price of $70.6/lb vs $76.0 ests (7% miss)

• Q4 cost of production of $51.6/lb vs $53.8 ests (4% lower), with FY26 costs of $43.3/lb below the $44-48 guidance

• Q4 capex of $5.1m vs $9.5m ests, with FY26 capex of $12.1m below $15-17m guidance

• Cash and investments of $265m vs $260.7m ests, plus an undrawn $70m revolving credit facility

• PLS Project advanced, with the CNSC deeming the Construction Licence application sufficient to proceed and hearings targeted for end of calendar 2027

Company page: Paladin Energy (PDN)

WiseTech to acquire FRDM.ai to accelerate VerifyWise

[9:19 am] WiseTech Global has entered a binding agreement to acquire California-based supply chain risk and compliance platform FRDM.ai.

• Upfront consideration of US$10m in cash and WTC shares, with all-cash earn-outs of up to US$14.31m

• Completion expected 3 August 2026, subject to customary conditions precedent

• FRDM.ai maps supplier networks beyond direct suppliers and scores risk in real time across modern slavery, geopolitical, human rights and other supply chain risks

• Combines with BorderWise, Denied Party Screening and Global Knowledge to create VerifyWise, extending compliance from transaction-level screening to multi-tier network verification

• Cross-sell opportunity across WiseTech's network of more than 22,000 logistics providers and over 500,000 connected enterprises

Company page: WiseTech Global (WTC)

Lynas Q4 NdPr production misses estimates on Mt Weld ore quality issues

[9:15 am] Lynas Rare Earths continues its streak of weaker-than-expected production amid ongoing operational issues at its Mt Weld Project. For context, the company's Q3 total rare earth production of 3,233 tonnes was ~19% below consensus due to issues at the Kalgoorlie cracking and leaching facility. The stock fell 2.0% on the day (21-Apr).

• Q4 NdPr production of 1,857t vs 2,179.5t ests (15% miss), reflecting Mt Weld water recycling plant and ore concentrate quality issues

• Total REO production of 3,481t vs 3,635.0t ests (4% miss)

• Q4 sales revenue of $288.9m vs $372.9m ests (23% miss), up 70% on the prior corresponding period and the highest since Q4 FY22

• Record average sales price of $98.2/kg vs $101 ests (3% miss), on improved NdPr pricing and a heavier heavy rare earth mix

• HRE facility cost blows out to around $294m from around $180m, on additional equipment for customer specifications, higher non-China sourcing costs and cost escalation

• Samarium demand building, with first customer orders expected to be fulfilled in Q1 FY27

Company page: Lynas Rare Earths (LYC)

Beach Energy Q4 production misses on softer volumes despite oil price strength

[9:11 am] Beach Energy finished FY26 on a weak note, with production and revenue both missing market expectations.

• Q4 production of 4.9MMboe vs 5.1MMboe ests (4% miss)

• Q4 sales revenue of $400m vs $429.0m ests (7% miss)

• Realised oil price up 39% to $174/bbl vs $155.45 ests (12% beat), while realised gas price down 1% to $11.1/GJ vs $11.03 ests (in line)

• Q4 capex of $241m vs $205.3m ests (17% higher)

• FY26 production of 19.4MMboe, at the bottom of the 19.4-20.3MMboe guidance range

• Otway interest sold, with Beach to receive $70m upfront plus a $3.75/GJ royalty on up to 62 PJ for its operated stake in VIC/L35, implying value of around $130m after tax

• Liquidity of $983m and net gearing of 10.6%, with a capital management framework review update due at full year results

Company page: Beach Energy (BPT)

Cleanaway CFO Paul Binfield to step down as FY26 EBIT guidance edges past consensus

[9:08 am] Cleanaway Waste Management announced the departure of CFO Paul Binfield alongside FY26 underlying EBIT guidance slightly ahead of consensus.

• FY26 underlying EBIT guided to $470m vs $468.1m ests (in line)

• Nigel Simonsz appointed CFO, commencing 27 July, previously CFO and CEO of United Petroleum and CFO at Sigma Healthcare and Australian Agricultural Company

• Binfield to remain through H1 FY27 to support the FY26 reporting process and ensure an orderly transition

Cleanaway shares are down 11.2% year-to-date and down 20.1% in the last twelve months.

Company page: Cleanaway Waste Management (CWY)

AMP brings in UBS to weigh potential banking unit sale

[9:06 am] AMP has engaged UBS to assist with any discussions around a sale of its banking division, according to the AFR, despite no active sell-side process or buyers.

• UBS on standby as defence adviser, with AMP having requested proposals from investment banks earlier this year, though no formal process is underway

• Limited buyer set for a mid-tier bank given big four and Macquarie dominance, with buyers also wary of splitting the bank from the larger wealth unit that feeds it

• AMP Bank holds 0.9% of the residential mortgage market with a $23bn lending book and 0.5% of household deposits, similar in size to Bank of Queensland and HSBC

• FY25 net profit after tax fell 9.8% to $55m, the only AMP unit to report a contraction

• Macquarie applies a 30% discount to AMP Bank on sub-scale operations and conglomerate reliance, valuing it at 16 cents per share or $402m equity value

Source: AFR

Lotus Resources to stay suspended pending strategic funding package

[9:05 am] Lotus Resources responded to an ASX aware letter and intends to remain suspended until a strategic funding package is finalised.

• Final assay and classification results for the 124k lbs of U3O8 expected approximately mid to late August, with the material still potentially capable of acceptance by Orano

• 93k lbs of off-specification U3O8 potentially capable of acceptance by Orano outside standard terms, at a discount or with increased treatment charges or penalties for impurities

• ConverDyn/Cameco accreditation not actively being sought at this point, though discussions continue, with qualification not required to deliver product to customers from converters

• Steady-state production targeted within Q4, with all actions under the Process Optimisation Program expected complete by end of September

• Potential liability of up to $7m to be funded via an equity raise and/or quasi equity options

Lotus hasn't traded since 17 June, with the shares down 72% year-to-date. The stock is the most shorted on the market, with short interest of 22.80%.

Company page: Lotus Resources (LOT)

Trump ramps up tariff campaign with 50% levy on Canada and fresh Section 301 threats

[9:04 am] A notable uptick in trade headlines from the Trump administration, headlined by steep new duties on Canada and signs a broader tariff round is imminent as global 10% levies expire this week.

• 50% tariffs on a range of Canadian goods announced Monday under Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930, covering items such as milk, beer and plywood that account for more than 5% of Canadian exports, but excluding energy, minerals and categories already under specific tariffs

• Levies apply even under USMCA compliance, with USTR Greer framing them as a response to Canada retaliating against earlier US tariff efforts, while PM Carney said Canada was within its rights to match earlier actions but stands ready to engage

• US-Mexico bilateral talks on revising the USMCA are set for this week, notably excluding Canada

• Broader Section 301 tariffs on dozens of countries could be announced as soon as this week per the FT, likely landing between 10-12.5%, as the administration's 10% global duties imposed after February's Supreme Court decision expire on Friday

SpaceX snaps seven-day slide as maiden earnings date triggers first share unlock

[9:03 am] SpaceX rose 3% on Tuesday, ending a seven-day losing streak after setting 4 August for its debut earnings report, which also opens its first insider lock-up window.

• First earnings due 4 August, with the staggered lock-up letting insiders sell 20% of eligible locked-up stock, up to 911.5m shares, from 6 August

• A further 10% could unlock if the stock closes at least 30% above the IPO price on five of the ten trading days into the report

• Stock had shed nearly half its value from the 16 June intraday high of $225.64, down 43% from its $211.39 record close, cutting Musk's net worth to around $786bn from above $1tn

• Short sellers have piled in, with bearish positioning reaching about a third of the public float, prompting Musk to warn their survival odds are very low

Source: CNBC

Oracle credit risk hits near 18-year high on AI debt angst

[8:55 am] The cost of insuring Oracle's debt against default climbed to its highest since at least 2008 as investors questioned whether its heavy AI spending will pay off.

• Five-year CDS rose to about 2.03 percentage points, the highest on record back to end-2008, topping Friday's prior peak of 198.23 basis points

• Bonds sold off across the curve, with the 6.7% 2056 notes widening around 8 basis points to 263bp and the 5.7% 2036 notes around 9 basis points wider at 205bp

• S&P cut Oracle to one notch above junk earlier this month, citing rising AI spending, leaving it the credit market's key barometer for AI risk

• Moody's is the focus from here, holding a Baa2 rating with a negative outlook, with Morgan Stanley flagging medium-term fallen-angel risk dependent on execution and monetisation

• Renewed AI capex fears from a Chinese startup's model have rattled tech ahead of earnings, with Oracle due to report on 9 September

Source: Bloomberg

TSMC to lift chip prices by up to 10% from 2027

[8:55 am] TSMC will raise prices on both advanced and mature nodes by as much as 10% in 2027 to offset rising materials, equipment and overseas plant construction costs, according to Nikkei Asia.

Oil continues its ascent

[8:53 am] Brent settled 3.1% higher overnight to US$91.63 a barrel.

Prices are now:

• Up 25.1% vs. pre-war levels (27-Feb)

• Up 30.6% from the recent 2-Jul low

• Down 23.3% from the brief US$119.50 high on 9-Mar

Brent daily price chart (Source: TradingView)

US-Iran conflict escalates as Hormuz nears standstill and oil risks build

[8:47 am] The US completed its 10th straight night of strikes on Iran as mediators floated a 10-day ceasefire, with the Strait of Hormuz all but closed and a Houthi blockade threat piling fresh pressure on oil.

• US launched a fresh wave of strikes on Tuesday, targeting Iranian command centres, missile and drone sites and air defences, after Trump vowed Tehran would pay for the deaths of three US service members in Jordan and Iraq

• Persian Gulf flows have collapsed to below 45% of pre-war levels, with Hormuz traffic near a standstill and a tanker forced to abandon ship after being struck early Tuesday

• Houthis declared a maritime embargo on Saudi Arabia, putting roughly 2.5m barrels a day of Saudi oil at risk via the Red Sea, one of the few remaining routes able to offset lost Hormuz volumes

• US intelligence sees a stalemate, assessing that further strikes are unlikely to soften Tehran's stance, while Israel believes Iran moved enrichment centrifuges into the deeply buried Pickaxe Mountain site

Korean traders cut margin loans to lowest since April as chip losses bite

[8:46 am] South Korean investors have slashed leveraged stock positions to a three-month low as memory-chip losses halt the market's rally.

• Margin loan balance fell to 33.4tn won ($22.6bn) as of 16 July, the lowest since 15 April and down 13% from the end-June peak of 38.6tn won

• Kospi down nearly 30% from its June peak on doubts over the sustainability of the AI rally

• Samsung Electronics has shed roughly a quarter of its market value this month, while SK Hynix has lost about a third

• Retail appetite is cooling, with investor deposits down to 108.1tn won on 16 July from a 4 June peak of 139.7tn won

• JPMorgan sees a self-correcting mechanism, noting fundamentals remain solid but rapid gains drove elevated volatility and forced foreign selling

• Regional unwind, with Chinese traders cutting margin debt at the fastest pace since 2015-16 and Taiwanese retail investors trimming leverage at the quickest pace in over a year

Source: Bloomberg

China unleashes broad state support to arrest tech stock rout

[8:45 am] Beijing has deployed regulators, insurers and state-backed funds in one of its widest market-stabilisation efforts in years after a sharp selloff in AI and chip stocks.

• State buying suspected in the ChinaAMC STAR 50 ETF, which drew a record 13.8bn yuan ($2bn) of inflows on Monday, with the scale pointing to national team support

• STAR 50 index surged 11% on Tuesday, its biggest one-day gain in nearly two years, after tumbling around 17% last week as leveraged positions unwound at the fastest pace since the 2015-16 crash

• At least five major insurers pledged to lift investments, with China Life buying more than 10bn yuan of stocks and funds and PICC and Ping An making similar commitments

• Broader gauges rallied on the support, with the ChiNext up 7.1% and the CSI 300 closing 3.1% higher

• Traders remain cautious, noting the intervention may slow losses but is unlikely to reverse sentiment without a return to more reasonable valuations

Source: Bloomberg

GM lifts full-year profit outlook on truck pricing and lower tariffs

[8:42 am] GM beat on earnings in Q2 and raised its full-year EBIT guidance, buoyed by strong margins on its largest vehicles, though EV-related charges dragged on net income. Shares rallied 4.9% but still down 1.8% year-to-date.

• Revenue up 1.9% to US$48.03bn vs US$47.01bn ests (2% beat)

• Adjusted EPS up 41% to US$3.57 vs US$3.20 ests (12% beat)

• Adjusted EBIT up 30% to US$3.94bn vs US$3.79bn ests (4% beat)

• FY26 adjusted EBIT guidance raised to US$14bn-US$16bn, from a prior US$13.5bn-US$15.5bn

• FY26 GAAP net income cut to US$8.4bn-US$11.4bn on a further US$2.3bn of EV charges, taking total EV write-downs since H2'25 to US$10.9bn

• CEO Mary Barra flagged enhanced pricing power on the next-gen truck platform as a driver of continued momentum into 2027.

3M raises full-year guidance as turnaround gathers pace

[8:41 am] 3M beat on the top and bottom lines in Q2 and lifted its full-year earnings outlook, sending shares up 7.3% to a fresh five-month high.

• Revenue up 2.4% to US$6.5bn vs US$6.4bn ests (2% beat)

• Adjusted EPS up 11% to US$2.40 vs US$2.24 ests (7% beat)

• Adjusted operating margin of 24.9%, up 40bps year-on-year

• FY26 adjusted EPS guidance raised to US$8.80-US$8.95 vs US$8.74 ests (2% beat at midpoint), from a prior range of no more than US$8.70

• FY26 organic sales growth seen above 3.5% and total sales growth above 4.5%, with 70-80bps of operating margin expansion

• CEO Bill Brown flagged Microsoft's deployment of 3M's Expanded Beam Optics technology for AI data centre infrastructure as a key growth win.

US stocks rally as chipmakers lead, investors pivot to earnings

[8:37 am] Wall Street snapped a three-day losing streak on Tuesday as strong semiconductor gains and better-than-expected corporate results outweighed ongoing US-Iran tensions.

• Dow up 0.74% to 52,224.64, S&P 500 up 0.89% to 7,509.20 and Nasdaq up 1.29% to 25,837.21, with all three breaking three-day losing streaks

• Semiconductors led the advance, with the VanEck Semiconductor ETF up 4.5% and Micron (+12.1%), Intel (+8.6%), AMD (+8.1%) and Nvidia (+1.9%) among the standouts

• 3M jumped more than 7% and General Motors gained nearly 5%, both after topping top and bottom-line estimates for Q2

• Earnings season off to a strong start, with nearly 88% of the roughly 66 S&P 500 names reported so far beating bottom-line ests

• Breadth was soft, with the equal-weight S&P 500 (+0.16%) trailing the cap-weighted benchmark by 73 bps

Good morning!

[8:30 am] ASX 200 futures are up 21 pts (+0.24%).

The overnight session in a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks snapped a three-day losing streak as semiconductors led a relatively broad rebound

• Chip names like Micron, Intel and AMD rallied 8-12%, while better-than-expected earnings from General Motors and 3M drove broader buying appetite

• Trump imposed new 50% tariffs on a range of Canadian goods while fresh US strikes on Iran pushed Brent ~3% higher to US$91.63 a barrel

• Gold bounced 1.7% to US$4,079/oz, while copper soared 2.97% to US$6.56/lb on signs that supply conditions in China are continuing to tighten