ASX 200 Live Today - Tuesday, 18th August

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Tuesday, August 18. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Let us know how we can make it even better.

Reporting season is heating up and we've got you covered. Our reporting season calendar has over 250 stocks plus earnings and dividend estimates.

Cochlear lands at top of revised guidance as implant revenue stalls

[9:06 am] Cochlear delivered FY26 at the upper end of downgraded guidance, with flat cochlear implant revenue, a lower gross margin and foreign exchange headwinds weighing on profit.

• Sales revenue up 2% in constant currency to $2,343m vs $2,331m ests (1% beat), with second-half growth of 6%

• Gross margin down to 71% from 74% on sales mix, manufacturing variances and foreign exchange

• Underlying NPAT of $322m, at the upper end of the revised $290-330m guidance

• Cochlear implant units up 5% to 56,692, though implant revenue was flat in constant currency at $1.4bn on higher emerging market mix

• R&D up 15% funding the drug-eluting electrode and totally implantable implant, with the Nucleus Nexa System reaching over 95% of developed market implant sales by June

• Free cash flow up $141m to $264m, though a $109m non-cash impairment was taken on innovation fund investments led by Epiminder

• FY27 guidance for low single-digit constant currency revenue growth and underlying NPAT of $330-350m (midpoint $340m), with the 70% dividend payout policy maintained

Here's how Cochlear's result stacks up against Macquarie's ests (31-Jul-26):

• Revenue: $2,343m actual vs $2,323m Macquarie (1% beat)

• Underlying NPAT: $322m actual vs $307m Macquarie (5% beat)

• FY27 revenue guided to low single-digit CC growth (implying roughly $2,390-2,420m) vs Macquarie's $2,330m (~3% beat)

• FY27 underlying NPAT guidance of $330-350m vs. Macquarie's $325m (~5% beat)

Worth noting: Cochlear is down 49% year-to-date but up 38% since 3 June. Short interest has slightly eased in the past ~6 weeks from highs of ~10% to 8.9%, but still very elevated.

Company page: Cochlear (COH)

RWC enters process deed with Brookfield on $4.75 per share proposal

[9:03 am] Reliance Worldwide has entered a process deed with Brookfield after receiving an improved $4.75 cash per share indicative proposal, opening the door to a scheme of arrangement.

• Cash offer of $4.75 per share represents a 31.6% premium to the last close of $3.61

• Values RWC at an enterprise value of ~$4.1bn, an FY26 EV/Adjusted EBITDA multiple of 12.1x post-AASB16

• Follows earlier rejected Brookfield offers of $4.15, $4.25 and $4.50 per share, with the improved bid coming after an eight-week due diligence period

• Exclusivity restrictions apply for four weeks to 15 September 2026, with both parties working towards a Scheme Implementation Deed

• Board recommends shareholders take no action, with the proposal still subject to confirmatory due diligence and a binding SID

Company page: Reliance Worldwide (RWC)

RWC swings to slim profit as one-offs bite, Brookfield bid halts dividend

[9:01 am] Reliance Worldwide posted lower adjusted earnings on tariffs, higher copper costs and soft volumes, while an unsolicited Brookfield takeover proposal saw the Board pull the final dividend.

• Group net sales of $1,305.6m vs $1,321m ests (1% miss), down 0.7%, or up 3.0% on an adjusted basis

• Adjusted EBITDA down 12.8% to $242.1m vs $242m ests (in line), with margin down to 18.5% from 21.1%

• Adjusted NPAT down 15.3% to $125.1m vs $119m ests (5% beat)

• Reported NPAT of $6.3m, net of US$103.3m post-tax one-off charges tied to APAC metals restructuring

• Net debt down to $243.4m from $331.6m, leverage of 1.11x, now below the target range

• No final dividend declared and buy-back suspended following Brookfield's non-binding indicative proposal to acquire RWC

• FY27 guidance for group sales up mid to high-single digits, with adjusted EBITDA margin broadly consistent with FY26

Company page: Reliance Worldwide (RWC)

Challenger lifts NPAT 3%, upsizes buy-back to $450m

[8:54 am] Challenger delivered FY26 result in-line with its guidance on strong annuity sales, boosted shareholder returns and set out a new reporting framework from FY27.

• Normalised NPAT up 3% to $468m, with statutory NPAT up to $506m from $192m

• Normalised EPS up 3% to 68.1 cps, in line with guidance

• Annuity sales up 19% to $6.2bn, with annuity book growth of 10.7%

• Normalised ROE of 11.6%, remaining above target, with PCA ratio of 1.38 times

• Full-year ordinary dividend up 7% to 31.5 cps fully franked, plus a 1.5 cps special dividend

• Upsized share buy-back to $450m, with a further $300m on-market buy-back announced today

• FY27 Core Basic EPS guidance of 45-49 cps, with the 47 cps midpoint 6% above FY26 Core EPS of 44.2 cps

Company page: Challenger (CGF)

SRG Global posts record result, upgrades FY27 guidance

[8:49 am] SRG Global delivered a record FY26 beating upgraded guidance, swung back to net cash and lifted its FY27 earnings outlook on record work in hand.

• Revenue up 27% to $1,675.5m vs $1,649m ests (2% beat)

• Underlying EBITDA up 34% to $170.1m vs $167m ests (2% beat), with EBITDA to cash conversion of 101%

• EBIT(A) up 41% to $131.8m

• EPS(A) up 34% to 13.8 cents vs 12.9 cents ests (7% beat)

• Total FY26 dividend up 27% to 7.0 cps fully franked vs. 7.0 cps ests (in-line)

• Transitioned to net cash of $6.2m from proforma net debt of $52.5m post TAMS, with record work in hand of $5.1bn up 42%

• Upgraded FY27 guidance to $195-205m EBITDA (midpoint $200m, 2% above $196m ests) and $150-160m EBIT(A)

Company page: SRG Global (SRG)

Deterra delivers record MAC volumes, cuts net debt in half

[8:43 am] Deterra posted a solid FY26 result driven by record iron ore royalty volumes and a sharp deleveraging following non-core asset sales.

• Revenue from continuing operations up 6% to $236.2m

• MAC revenue up 7% to $234.4m on record production of 151.8Mwmt (up 8%) and record sales of 140.1Mdmt (up 9%), partly offset by a realised iron ore price down 2% to $135.8/dmt

• Underlying EBITDA up 6% to $222.2m at a 94% margin

• NPAT up 5% to $164.2m

• Total FY26 dividend up 5% to 23.2 cps fully franked, representing 75% of NPAT with the payout target maintained

• Net debt cut to $132.5m from $270.6m, with undrawn facility capacity of $357.0m after divesting non-core precious metals assets for US$82m (~28% pre-tax IRR)

• Thacker Pass lithium royalty advancing with US$1.2bn drawn of the US$2.2bn DOE loan, over 95% detailed engineering complete and mechanical completion targeted late CY27

Company page: Deterra Royalties (DRR)

Today's reporters: BHP, Cochlear, CSL and more

[8:41 am] We're in for a heavy day of results, spanning big hitters like BHP and CSL, plus various industrials, healthcare and financials. Here's a list of the names reporting today.

• Amplitude Energy (AEL)

• Aspen Group (APZ)

• BHP Group (BHP)

• Challenger (CGF)

• Cochlear (COH)

• Cogstate (CGS)

• CSL (CSL)

• EML Payments (EML)

• HealthCo Healthcare & Wellness REIT (HCW)

• Judo Capital (JDO)

• Macmahon (MAH)

• Pro Medicus (PME)

• Region Group (RGN)

• Reliance Worldwide Corp. (RWC)

• Sims (SGM)

• SKS Technologies Group (SKS)

• Smart Parking (SPZ)

• SRG Global (SRG)

• Wagners (WGN)

China recovery loses steam as output, retail sales and property all soften

[9:39 am] China's economy lost momentum entering the second half, with yesterday's industrial output and retail sales missing forecasts and the property slump dragging on, renewing pressure for more stimulus.

• Factory output up 4.5% year-on-year in July, slowing from 5.3% in June and missing the 4.8% consensus

• Retail sales up 0.6%, down from 1% in June and well short of the 1.5% forecast, partly payback from last year's consumer goods trade-in scheme

• Fixed-asset investment down 6.7% in the first seven months versus a 6% expected decline, worsening from a 5.7% fall in the first half

• New home prices down 3.2% year-on-year in July and down 0.1% month-on-month, with only 17 of 70 surveyed cities recording monthly gains

• Q2 GDP grew 4.3% year-on-year, the slowest pace in more than three years, keeping the economy reliant on exports to offset weak consumption

Source: Reuters

US-Iran ceasefire collapses as MoU expires with no deal

[8:34 am] The 60-day US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding lapsed on Monday with neither side willing to extend, as Trump demanded surrender and Iran threatened a shift to a fully offensive posture.

• 60-day MoU signed 17 June expired with no final deal, both sides accusing the other of violations, with Iran declaring there was no ceasefire to extend

• A senior Iranian official told Reuters Tehran will move to a "fully offensive" military posture and could launch a "timely and precise" attack to break the US naval blockade if diplomacy fails

• Trump ruled out extending the interim deal, called on Iran to "put up the white flag of surrender" and threatened to bomb US ally Oman if it "gets in the way" of a Hormuz deal

• Trump claimed a direct backchannel to Iran's IRGC via former DNI Tulsi Gabbard and an Iraqi Kurdish intermediary, though the IRGC denies contact

• Hormuz traffic remains crippled at roughly 3 vessels over 24 hours versus about 110 daily pre-war, with CENTCOM reporting 64 commercial vessels redirected, 3 disabled and 2 boarded

• Trump ordered a "substantial" cut to US-South Korea military drills citing Seoul's lack of help on Iran, a move flagged as a risk to Asia-Pacific alliance confidence

Anthropic revenue run rate tops US$65bn ahead of IPO

[8:28 am] Anthropic's annualised revenue has surged more than sevenfold since late last year as it moves toward a public listing expected as soon as later this year. The data buoyed chipmakers, with names like SpaceX (+4.4%), Micron (+4.1%) and Intel (+0.9%) trading broadly higher.

• Revenue run rate hit US$65bn by end-July, up more than 7x from around US$9bn in late 2025

• Latest completed quarter revenue of more than US$11.5bn vs US$787m a year earlier (more than 14x higher)

• Reported positive adjusted operating income for the quarter

• Both Anthropic and OpenAI have filed confidential IPO paperwork, with Anthropic tipped to debut ahead of OpenAI

• OpenAI's run rate recently topped US$40bn, though the two firms may not measure the metric the same way

Source: Bloomberg

US 30-year yield hits highest since 2007

[8:25 am] The selloff in long-dated US Treasuries deepened as investors demanded more compensation for inflation and fiscal risk, driving borrowing costs to near two-decade highs.

• US 30-year yield rose ~6 bps to 5.31%, the loftiest since 2007, with the move echoed in Canada (highest since 2010) and Germany (2011 levels)

• Gap between 2- and 30-year yields widened to 113bps, the steepest since April, as softer data trimmed expectations for a September Fed cut

• Pressure driven by near US$2 trillion annual US deficits, heavy long-dated bond supply and inflation stuck above target, with CPI still running at 3.4% y/y

• Corporate borrowing to fund the AI investment boom plus waning demand from traditional long-bond buyers are compounding the move

• Citadel flagged the Fed's reluctance to tighten despite above-target inflation as an ongoing risk for markets, calling next month's meeting a "line-ball call" with more than 55% of core goods prices still rising

Source: Bloomberg

Good morning!

[8:11 am] ASX 200 futures are down 36 pts (-0.40%). Here's what happened overnight:

• Major US benchmarks lower for a second-straight session as the US-Iran MoU expired with no deal or talks underway

  • S&P 500 (-0.52%), Dow (-0.51%), Nasdaq (-0.32%), Russell 2000 (-0.35%)

  • Equal-weight S&P 500 (-0.89%) after four straight all-time highs

  • Energy was the only sector to finish higher

• Bond yields are pressuring equity markets, with the US 10-year breaking out to the highest since Jan-25 and US 30-year yield trading at a fresh 19-year high

• Bond yield backup driven by surging government debt (~US$2tn annual deficits), rising oil prices (Brent up 2.5% to US$91.09), sticky inflation (US July CPI at 3.4%) and the Fed’s reluctance to hike rates

• Chipmakers traded higher after Anthropic's revenue run rate topped US$65bn, reinforcing the view that AI infrastructure spending has further to run