ASX 200 Live Today - Monday, 24th August

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Monday, August 24. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Let us know how we can make it even better.

Reporting season is heating up and we've got you covered. Our reporting season calendar has over 250 stocks plus earnings and dividend estimates.

Reece holds earnings flat as ANZ recovery offsets soft US housing

[8:58 am] Reece has delivered modest FY26 revenue growth with earnings broadly flat, as recovering ANZ volumes were offset by a weak US residential construction backdrop.

• Revenue up 4.5% to $9.38bn vs $9.28bn ests (1% beat)

• EBITDA flat at $901m vs $899m ests (in line), with costs excluding D&A up 9.6% to $1.82bn on network, digital and employee investment

• NPAT down 2.8% to $308m vs $287m ests (7% beat)

• EPS up 0.7% to 49.5 cents vs 46.0 cents ests (8% beat)

• ANZ revenue up 8.3% to $4.20bn with EBIT up 6.1% to $360m, while US revenue rose 6.5% to US$3,511m but EBIT fell 13.0% to US$118m

• Final dividend of 13.40 cents fully franked takes the FY26 total to 18.84 cents vs 17.4 cents ests (8% beat)

• FY27 outlook flags a solid ANZ pipeline supporting first half momentum and only modest US growth, with net debt up to $744m and leverage of 1.0x

Company page: Reece (REH)

Lindsay Australia tops $1bn revenue and beats on EBITDA as network build completes

[8:57 am] Record FY26 result driven by the first full year of SRT Logistics and organic growth, with the group now pivoting from building the network to extracting returns from it.

• Revenue up 26.2% to $1,072.7m vs $1,078m ests (in line)

• Underlying EBITDA up 25.6% to $127.8m vs $119m ests (7% beat)

• Underlying EPS of 7.6c came in slightly below 7.8c ests (3% miss)

• Fully franked final dividend of 1.7c takes the full year to 3.8c vs 3.6c ests (6% beat), flat on FY25 at a 60.7% payout

• ROIC eased to 13.9% from 14.3% on invested capital of $399.5m, with net leverage at 1.92x, down from 2.23x at the half

• Primary Connect contract for about 40 Woolworths stores in North Queensland adds $30m to $36m of annual revenue from October, backed by $20m of capital and clearing the 15% ROIC hurdle

Company page: Lindsay Australia (LAU)

Regal doubles earnings on record inflows and bumper performance fees

[8:55 am] Regal Partners has more than doubled normalised earnings in 1H26, helped by a strong performance fee haul and a record half of net client inflows.

• Normalised NPAT up 108% to $93.3m

• Statutory NPAT up 258% to $94.1m

• Normalised fully diluted EPS up 104% to 21.4 cents

• Normalised performance fees of $118.7m did the heavy lifting, generated across multiple strategies

• Management and loan fee revenue up 14% on pcp, though pre-tax profit on that line grew a more modest 6%

• FUM of $21.4bn on record half-year net inflows of $1.4bn, an 11th straight quarter of positive flows, with North America now over a quarter of FUM

• Fully franked interim dividend of 12 cents, with roughly $290m of pro forma balance sheet capital plus an undrawn $130m facility

• Multi-Strategy Income Fund launches in September, while a new Regal Investment Committee will over time replace the single CIO structure

Company page: Regal Partners (RPL)

Aussie Broadband beats on earnings and dividend but FY27 guidance lands below ests

[8:53 am] The telco lifted earnings ahead of revenue on operating leverage, with connection scale transformed by the More, Tangerine and AGL Telco migrations. Comparisons below are to Ord Minnett ests.

• Revenue up 9.2% to $1,295.4m vs $1,303.9m ests (in line)

• Underlying EBITDA up 19.6% to $165.3m vs $164.9m ests (in line), with EBITDA margin up 1.2ppt to 12.8%

• Underlying NPATA up 25.8% to $70.2m vs $68.5m ests (3% beat), with EPSA of 23.9c vs 23.5c ests (2% beat)

• Reported NPAT of $35.3m vs $38.1m ests (7% miss), dragged by a $17.2m loss on the Digital Sense divestment

• Fully franked FY26 dividend of 6.0c vs 5.0c ests (20% beat), alongside a buyback of up to $115m and net leverage of 0.9x

• FY27 underlying EBITDA guidance of $205m to $215m implies 24% to 30% growth but sits about 4% below $219.4m ests

Company page: Aussie Broadband (ABB)

Ventia lifts margins and returns despite Defence-driven revenue decline

[8:51 am] Ventia has delivered 1H26 earnings growth and margin expansion despite lower revenue, upsizing its buyback and moving to full franking.

Note: Comparisons below are to UBS ests only, not consensus.

• Revenue down 4.7% to $2.89bn vs $3.06bn ests (5% miss), reflecting the transition to the new Defence Base Services Contract

• EBITDA up 8.2% to $273.3m vs $267m ests (2% beat), with group margin lifting to 9.4% versus the 8.7% forecast

• NPATA up 7.4% to $128.2m vs $124m ests (3% beat), with underlying EPS up 14.4% and cash conversion of 93.8%

• Interim dividend up 9.8% to 11.76 cents vs 11.7 cents ests (in line), now 100% franked versus 90% previously

• On-market buyback upsized by $50m to $300m, with $185.8m completed to date and net debt/EBITDA of 1.4x

• FY26 underlying NPATA guidance reaffirmed at 7% to 10% growth on FY25, with work in hand up 2.5% to $21.1bn

Company page: Ventia Services Group (VNT)

Monash IVF delays FY26 results as audit runs over

[8:49 am] Monash IVF has pushed back the release of its FY26 results from 24 August to 31 August, with the company saying completion of the audit of its financial statements is taking longer than anticipated. Management is working with the auditor to finish the remaining procedures and will update the market on any further developments.

Company page: Monash IVF Group (MVF)

Bendigo Bank grinds out modest earnings growth as margin improves

[8:47 am] Bendigo and Adelaide Bank has posted FY26 cash earnings of $530.2 million, with a stronger second half driven by a better deposit mix and lower costs.

Note: comparisons below are to Macquarie ests only, not consensus.

• Cash earnings up 3.0% to $530.2m vs $532m ests (in line), with second half cash earnings of $273.8m vs $274m ests (in line)

• Statutory NPAT of $375.1m vs $375m ests (in line), struck after an initial $70m provision for the non-financial risk rectification plan flagged last week

• Fully franked final dividend of 33 cents per share takes the full year to 63 cents, in line with ests

• NIM up 6bps over the second half to 1.98%, matching ests, with lower cost deposits lifting to 54.8% of customer deposits from 52.5%

• Total lending up 1.5% for the year, with business lending up 12.5% and Up lending up 56.3% to $2.6bn, offset by a slightly softer residential book

• Phase two of the productivity program carries $56m to $66m of pre-tax restructuring costs in FY27, for $65m to $75m of annual run rate benefits from FY28

Company page: Bendigo and Adelaide Bank (BEN)

City Chic doubles earnings on margin expansion as ANZ momentum accelerates into FY27

[8:46 am] The plus-size retailer delivered a sharply improved FY26 result on cost discipline and higher average selling prices, with US revenue deliberately sacrificed to manage tariff risk.

Note: City Chic is thinly covered, no ests/consensus available for comparison, figures are versus prior corresponding period only

• Global sales revenue of $130.5m, with ANZ up 7.6% to $113.8m on comp sales growth of 5.6% and USA revenue of $16.7m after a deliberate cut to purchasing

• Underlying EBITDA up 92% to $12.3m, excluding $0.2m of non-recurring costs versus $1.1m in FY25

• Trading margin up 2.1 percentage points to 60.6% on better assortments, lower promotional activity and higher selling prices

• Underlying cost of doing business down $7.1m to $66.1m, with marketing down 24% and employee costs down 5.5%

• Inventory down 11% to $24.1m and a net cash position of $5.2m, with all borrowings repaid and the $10m facility undrawn and extended to March 2028

• FY27 to date shows ANZ store comp sales up 11.4% over seven weeks with online down 8% on reduced promotions, and USA revenue growth and margin expected to return in 1H

Company page: City Chic Collective (CCX)

Middle East disruption hands Ampol a bumper half as refining and supply chain deliver

[8:44 am] Ampol's integrated model capitalised on global product dislocation, with earnings up several-fold on the pcp and a modest beat across the key lines. Comparisons below are to Macquarie ests.

• RCOP EBITDA up 152% to $1,637.1m vs $1,603m ests (2% beat)

• RCOP EBIT up 245% to $1,391.7m vs $1,354m ests (3% beat), with Fuels and Infrastructure up 859% to $1,134.5m as Lytton swung to $533.4m from $1.1m

• RCOP NPAT up 376% to $857.2m vs $831m ests (3% beat)

• Statutory NPAT of $1,363.4m, reversing a $25.3m loss on a $527.6m inventory gain

• Fully franked interim dividend of 185cps vs 175cps ests (6% beat), more than four times the pcp

• July earnings ahead of pcp with Lytton refining margin at US$27.11/bbl, though retail margins are tighter on lagged cost pass-through and the Lytton T&I began 30 July with October restart

Company page: Ampol (ALD)

Warsh's first Jackson Hole speech looms as bond market demands a reaction function

[8:41 am] The new Fed chair addresses the Kansas City Fed symposium on Friday under pressure to explain how the Fed responds to sticky inflation, after a July press conference that left markets unconvinced.

• Warsh gave little forward guidance after July's hold and long-term yields climbed to a two-decade high, with three FOMC members dissenting in favour of a hike

• Bloomberg Economics expects him to double down on cutting forward guidance rather than reassure markets, focusing on the intellectual framework behind his Fed reforms

• Treasury is now the complicating variable, with Bessent expanding long-dated buybacks and skewing issuance short, undercutting the market signal Warsh says the Fed should read

• Kashkari, one of three hike advocates last month, said he is not confident inflation is returning to target soon but would not prejudge September

• July PCE lands Wednesday with economists tipping 3.6% year on year, the slowest in four months, though rising oil prices from the Iran war cut against the cooling narrative

Source: Bloomberg

US-Canada trade talks collapse as 50% tariffs bite and Carney pledges dollar-for-dollar retaliation

[8:39 am] Negotiations fell apart just before Saturday's deadline, triggering the first-ever use of a Depression-era tariff power and setting up a September escalation.

• Tariffs of 50% hit roughly US$20bn of Canadian exports, about 5% of the total, with no exemption for goods otherwise shielded under USMCA

• Canada retaliates dollar for dollar from 8 September on US steel, dairy, appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp and paper and electronics

• Oil, potash and critical minerals are carved out, protecting the 4m barrels a day of crude and products Canada supplies the US

• The collapsed deal would have cut steel and aluminium duties to 25%, autos to 15% and scrapped the 10% lumber tariff, leaving those rates in place

• Sticking point was heavy trucks, with the US refusing to extend light-vehicle terms to Canadian-built F-350 to F-550 and Silverado production

US pivots from bombs to blockade as Iran threatens to shut Hormuz completely

[8:35 am] Washington is preparing its most aggressive economic squeeze on Tehran yet, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent set to detail the plan on Monday, leaving oil and diesel markets exposed to Iranian retaliation.

• Bessent has pledged the "greatest coordinated economic isolation in the history of the world" and told allies they are "either with us or against us", a framing that puts secondary sanctions risk on China, India, Turkey and the UAE, with the details due at a Monday news conference

• Hormuz traffic remains crippled at 20% of the pre-war seven-day average despite a 27% weekly rise to 103 vessels entering and 89 leaving, with Iran granting selective passage to Iraqi, Chinese, Indian and Pakistani tankers while denying US and Israel-linked ships

• Iran's security chief Mohsen Rezaei threatened to block all Gulf oil flows if neighbouring states join the US campaign, saying not "a single drop" would pass, a direct escalation risk to roughly 20m bpd of pre-war throughput

• Diesel is the tightest link, with Croft flagging historic high prices and no spare refining capacity, compounded by Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries, which flows through to global freight and agriculture costs

• Iran's economy is buckling, with inflation above 80%, the rial down almost 30% year to date, oil exports described by the central bank governor as having "virtually stopped" and the IMF forecasting a 6.1% contraction this year, though analysts warn effective pressure makes military retaliation more likely than capitulation

Nvidia passes soaring memory costs through to server prices

[8:35 am] Nvidia has told major customers that prices for servers containing its AI chips will rise by more than 15% in many cases, with the increases taking effect on systems shipped early next year.

• Price rises will hit systems built around the flagship Vera Rubin and Grace Blackwell chips, with the quantum of the increase varying by chip generation and memory configuration

• Contract server builders supplying hyperscalers including Microsoft, Alphabet's Google and Oracle have already notified customers of the forthcoming increases

• The move underlines the pricing power now held by DRAM makers Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron, who have lifted output but still cannot meet AI-driven demand, forcing even a company with 75% gross margins to pass costs on rather than absorb them

• Apple and Qualcomm have flagged similar cost-driven price rises, and Nvidia has separately lifted pricing on gaming graphics cards, pointing to a broader hardware inflation cycle

• Whether customers absorb the increase or look to alternatives will likely hinge on their own ability to secure memory supply, with Amazon, Microsoft, Google and Meta all running in-house silicon programs but still reliant on Nvidia for data centre build-outs

Source: Bloomberg

Dalio warns US debt crisis is three years away, tells investors to swap bonds for gold

[8:31 am] Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio has urged investors to underweight bonds and lift gold allocations, arguing US fiscal arithmetic is heading toward a break point.

• Recommends holding 10% to 15% of a portfolio in gold plus a small Bitcoin position, arguing the combination lowers risk and raises returns versus a bond-heavy allocation

• Estimates US government revenue of about US$5.5tn this year against US$7.5tn of spending, leaving a US$2tn shortfall, with interest costs alone near US$1tn and roughly US$10tn of debt to be refinanced

• Sees a debt crisis arriving "in three years, give or take two" absent a policy change, with the fix requiring the deficit to fall to 3% of GDP from about 6% via spending cuts, higher tax take and lower rates

• Frames the problem as global rather than US-specific, flagging similar fiscal strain in the UK, China and Japan, which supports the case for diversifying across countries with stronger balance sheets

• Backdrop is long-end Treasury yields at multiyear highs and Japan, the largest foreign holder, selling US paper to defend the yen, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's expanded long-dated buyback plan delivering only short-lived relief

Source: Bloomberg

Good morning!

[8:20 am] ASX 200 futures are up 41 pts (+0.45%). Here's what happened overnight:

• Miners, Healthcare and Banks led Wall Street higher, but major benchmarks still finished the week lower after a violent move in bond yields

  • Last Friday: S&P 500 (+0.43%), Nasdaq (+0.43%), Dow (+0.98%), Russell 2000 (+0.85%)

  • US weekly recap: S&P 500 (-1.43%), Nasdaq (-2.05%), Dow (-0.85%), Russell 2000 (-1.65%)

• Trade talks between the US and Canada collapsed just before a midnight deadline, triggering 50% US tariffs on Canadian goods and a promise of dollar-for-dollar retaliation from Mark Carney

• Two enormous catalysts land this week, with Bessent detailing the plan to economically isolate Iran on Monday and Nvidia reporting on Wednesday ahead of Jackson Hole