The 10 most overbought and oversold ASX 200 stocks – Week 32

ASX reporting season is in full throttle and that's launching several winners and losers like AMP and Audinate into overbought/oversold territory.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index is a momentum indicator that measures the magnitude and speed of recent price changes to assess whether or not a stock is overbought or oversold.

An RSI of 70 or above is considered to be overbought, which means the stock is rising too quickly and likely to experience a pullback. Meanwhile, an RSI of 30 or below is considered to be oversold, which means the stock is falling too quickly and is likely to experience a rebound.

AMP currently tops the list as the most overbought stock with an RSI of 74. While Audinate sits at the opposite end of the spectrum as the most oversold stock, with an RSI of 22.

Most Overbought ASX 200 Stocks

AMP reported an unexpectedly strong set of half-year 2024 numbers, including:

• Underlying net profit up 5.4% to $118 million or 12.4% ahead of consensus ($105m)

• Statutory net profit down 60% to $103 million but the prior period was inflated due to $209 million in proceeds from the sale of AMP Capital and SuperConcepts

• Interim dividend of 2 cents per share, in-line with market expectations

• Full-year guidance reaffirmed, including net interest margin range of 1.10% and 1.15%

• Upgraded full-year controllable cost expectations to $660 million compared to previous guidance of $690 million

The stock opened 7.0% higher on results day (8-Aug) and finished the session 13.2% higher.

Several analysts have raised their target prices for AMP, citing:

• Jefferies: Reduction in controllable costs is viewed as a sustainable achievement, with AMP on track to meet its revised targets.

• Macquarie: Platforms & superannuation showed strong performance, with underlying profit improvements attributed to cost discipline and AUM growth.

• UBS: Selling the advice business is expected to yield cost savings and boost operational efficiency.

It'll be interesting to see if the stock can continue to grind higher off the back of the strong result.

Most Oversold ASX 200 Stocks

Audinate shares briefly halved last Tuesday after downgrading its FY25 outlook. The key numbers include:

• Revenue of approximately US$60m, up 28.4%

• EBTIDA between A$19.5m and $20.5m, up ~80%

• Unaudited gross profit of US$44.5m, up 33.2%

• Revenue drivers in FY24 are not expected to continue in FY25

• FY25 will likely see a decline in revenue before a return to anticipated growth in FY26

The stock opened the session down 51% lower but managed to recoup some of those losses, closing the session down 36%.

Audinate blamed a number of factors that supercharged FY24, including customers over-ordering chips, normalising supply chains, unwinding of sales backlog and promotional activities. The big question is: Will FY25 represent a mere temporary setback, with ground rebounding in FY26?

Or is this one of those classic situations where a richly valued tech stock is never the same after making such a misstep?